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USC vaults up ESPN's FPI rankings following dominant opening win

Erik-McKinneyby: Erik McKinney08/31/25ErikTMcKinney
USC wide receiver Makai Lemon
USC wide receiver Makai Lemon (acscottphotography/WeAreSC)

The humans might want to see a little bit more from the USC Trojans following a dominant 73-13 win over a clearly overmatched Missouri State team. But the computers have apparently seen enough to vault the Trojans way up in ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) rankings.

A reminder on what FPI is from ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

USC now sits at No. 6 overall in the updated FPI and the No. 3 team in the Big Ten. Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, Ole Miss and Penn State are the five teams ahead of the Trojans, which jumped future opponents Oregon and Notre Dame (teams Nos. 7 and 8).

It continues a climb up the rankings for the Trojans. USC opened the offseason at No. 19 in ESPN’s FPI, then moved to No. 14 just ahead of the start of the regular season.

ESPN’s FPI liked the Trojans a lot last season as well and there were a bunch of games USC should have finished off as wins. We’ll see this season if Lincoln Riley and company can live up to these future expectations.

Obviously the Trojans still have to go win games this year but the projections are interesting after one week. USC opened the year here with a projected win-loss total of 8.7 wins and 3.9 losses. That’s shifted now to 9.9 wins and 2.5 losses. And most interestingly, USC is one of just three teams with a 100% chance of earning at least six wins. All three of those are Big Ten teams, in the Trojans, Ohio State and Penn State.

The other areas where USC made a big jump this week compared to the preseason:

Chance to win the Big Ten. Then: 8.1%. Now: 19.7%
Chance to make the playoff: Then 29.1%. Now 55.8%
Chance to make the National Championship game: Then: 3.3%. Now: 13.2%.

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Garry Paskwietz (1966-2019)

Garry Paskwietz was a pioneer in bringing team-specific sports coverage to the internet. He founded WeAreSC in 1998 and was an Emmy winner for his work with Fox Sports West. Always generous with his time, knowledge, and compassion, he touched the lives of countless USC and high school football fans.

Garry Paskwietz