Question for the experts on here.
How many auto-qualifier spots do you predict the Big Ten will have at 141?
As I see it, not many. There are only 5 ranked wrestlers (top-25) with 15 matches. Am I missing something?
Don't need 15 matches. Only need to satisfy 2 of the 3 criteria: .700 Win %, Top 30 Coaches' Rank (min 8 matches), Top 30 RPI (min 15 matches).
Min 5 guys are locks. Max 9 guys reasonable, squint hard and you might see 10. Most likely 7-8.
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Satisfy all 3: Mendez, Hardy, Vombaur, Porter
Satisfy 2: Davis, Bailey (if he goes), Olivieri (if he goes)
Everybody above will get an AQ if they compete in the postseason. 5-7 total.
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On the bubble:
- DeKraker: 60%, 31st coach, 22nd RPI. Has Pucino left on schedule.
- Ragusin: 63%, 30th coach, needs an Open to get an RPI and even then would be borderline top 30. Has Pucino and Blackburn (C. Michigan, 10-12) left.
- Clark: 73% (11-4), 32nd coach, not currently ranked in RPI, has Porter and Bailey/Petersen left -- needs to win 1 (or skip both) to stay above 70%.
- Petersen (if Bailey doesn't go): currently 9-3 (75%) with Porter and Vega remaining. Needs to either win 1 or duck both to stay above 70%. Also needs to get a Top 30 coaches' rank -- decent chance of that if Brands designates him the starter in time. Won't get an RPI without going to an Open.
Note: Vega, Olivieri, and Vazquez all have 13+ matches and will have higher RPIs than the bubble guys above.
Won't get an AQ: Pucino, Lemus, Exferd, Crumpler, Rutgers backup if Olivieri doesn't go.