34 say...

[engie]

Where you rank in scoring defense tells you almost nothing. It has just as much to do with what happens in TCU vs. Oregon St. (I realize they didn't play this year) as it does what happens at Davis-Wade.

How many yards are we giving up per rush?
How many yards are we giving up per pass attempt?
How are our opponents fairing on 3rd down?
Are we getting lots of sacks and interceptions or very few?
Are we recovering a high percentage of our fumbles?
Are teams gaining above or below their averages when they face us?

The answer to these questions will tell you about your defense. Not where we ranked in scoring defense.

Your entire basis for this thread is ONE statement that coach made...paraphrased "The defense wasn't good but it damn sure wasn't Torbush-like"... Then you go and make a statement like what I just bolded that is every bit as trivial as Coach's comment. It hinders your entire position on this. No, scoring D is not the only factor that matters, but it is the SINGLEMOST important factor of any defense.

Neither one of the positions taken between you or coach are statistically relevant. They are cherrypicked data to support a preconceived viewpoint. IF we really want to make an honest comparison, you have to go AT LEAST two steps further in the data analysis. Namely, comparing the offenses we saw this year to offenses we've seen in the past(and our performances against them in each situation)... both in a cumulative and individual basis, both in the pass and the run. To make these bold comments fact, there is a shitload of numbers that need to be crunched beyond what has been done thusfar...otherwise it's just two clashing agendas...

That is why I've been slow to enter this overall debate, along with the fact that I have mixed emotions about the correct next steps defensively, while the steps that need to be taken offensively are clear as day for me.

 

[engie]

So even though we scored more points per game this year than in any year under Mullen, it's the offense that needs re-tooling?

Speaking of Ole Miss, even though they have almost nothing to do with this argument. Their defense that "got blasted" held Bama & A&M to fewer points than ours.

By the way, did I mention that we increased our T.O.P. per game by FOUR 17ING MINUTES and still gave up more points and yards per game.

Give me some of whatever you're smoking. It must be awesome!

Again, this is full of holes. You keep trying to make quantitative statements without doing quantitative analysis. and it makes your bias easy to pick apart.

1) So, scoring DEFENSE doesn't matter....but scoring OFFENSE is all that matters? That's about the gist of what your saying, correct? The irony is strong in this post...

2) If we increasted TOP by 4 minutes, that in and of itself would explain a small increase in offensive production, no? The difference is that the TOP isn't comparable between this year and the previous seasons, because this year we huddled and played clock control, whereas in the past we were mostly in the hurry-up. Total offensive plays does a much better job of telling the story on that.

3) Their "defense" wasn't the point of my post...their offense was. But, once again, you are talking SCORING, after telling us that it isn't important. Which is it? You aren't looking at any of the more complex metrics. You are cherrypicking, and you aren't even doing that on a consistent basis.

 

[Todd4State]

I think we can all agree to agree that changes need to be made on both sides of the ball. Therein lies the real issue if the rumors about us keeping Chris are true.

The only reasons I can think of for Dan doing that are:

1. Maybe he doesn't want a new OC and DC because it's not all that ideal. I still think he has the Florida mindset- which is good, but it doesn't always work for MSU. Florida can maybe fire only one coordinator at a time. Very similar to Dan's hard line on Dec. only JUCO's.

2. Maybe he thinks Chris is a really good recruiter and that somehow outweighs his incompetence. Tyrone Nix syndrome.

3. He just really likes Chris because he is a nice guy.

The problem with number one is this- and the reason why I would get rid of Chris if I had to pick one- I have never seen a good MSU team that didn't have a good defense. I don't care if Bill Walsh is our OC- we are going to be doing good to score 21 on Bama and LSU and therefore we sure as hell can't afford to give up 35 and sit there and make no adjustments. If Dan ever wants to beat a decent SEC team- by decent top 25- we MUST be strong on defense.

So, while I do agree there are issues with the offense- Dan really needs to get rid of BOTH Les and Chris. Even though it's not ideal. Losing to me is even less ideal. Our d-line may be better next year, but who knows what we're getting with our secondary? Whitley won't thrive under Chris and Cox and the JUCO's may have to take half a year to adjust, or we're going to be going with largely inexperienced players. And who the hell knows if there is some walk-on that Chris "likes" that he'll play no matter what even over players that are performing better? Regardless, it doesn't need to be an either or thing. And Dan needs to understand that.

The issue with number two is NO coordinator is a good enough recruiter that is justifies poor performance as a coach. Deadhorse.

The issue with three is it goes against what the new MSU is supposed to be about.

 

[Railin Jemmye]

Last year we were scared of losing Chris Wilson to another job. So while I think our defense was not great this year, he probably does get one more year to turn it around. We do have defensive talent coming in. It's crazy, because Tyrone Nix looked like a freaking genius in 2008 and 2009. Their DL wrecked **** back then too.

And sorry, I just don't see what firing Koenning will accomplish unless we have somebody waiting in the wings. Our OL has been our problem for the past 2 years, and it appears that will begin to fix itself next year. Our offense looked good in 2009 and 2010, and Koenning was here then.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

No one said scoring defense...

...didn't matter. I said that where you rank in a given year in scoring defense doesn't tell you a lot about your team because it takes into account all the other teams as well. It's easy enough to understand, the team that allowed 18 points a game might be 1st one year. They might be 31st another, speaking hypothetically of course. They are playing similar defense but other teams are doing better or worse. So whether you are 21st or 77th, you aren't really getting the whole picture. I'd expect you to understand this.

Secondly, OF COURSE scoring matters. Scoring is really the only thing that matters. But when you are trying to decide what needs to be fixed, you can't JUST look at scoring (as you well know). Our defense is getting worse in scoring defense, yardage, whatever you want to measure.

Also, Ole Miss held both A&M & Bama to less yardage as well.

Finally, I don't have an agenda. When I see 34 make a statement that is clearly just him blowing smoke, I'm going to call him on it. The defense has been getting worse. That's not an opinion to anyone who's watching the games.

Is it simply losing players? Is it a schematic thing? Combination of the two? Something else? I don't know. But you have to hold people accountable for not performing and our defense has not performed up to expectations.

 

[diddog]

The problem is Mullen's recruiting. Our best players on defense, just like last year, were still Croom recruits. Boyd was our best dl, cam at lb, banks corner. Autry appears wildly overrated as many JUCOs are. On the offense, the best lineman in four years with Dan have been Sherrod, smith, and Jackson. All Croom recruits. The rest are average or below. It is not just stars, it is talent evaluation. We are in decline for years now unless recruiting turns around dramatically.

 

[engie]

Secondly, OF COURSE scoring matters. Scoring is really the only thing that matters. But when you are trying to decide what needs to be fixed, you can't JUST look at scoring (as you well know). Our defense is getting worse in scoring defense, yardage, whatever you want to measure.

Also, Ole Miss held both A&M & Bama to less yardage as well.

The defense has been getting worse. That's not an opinion to anyone who's watching the games.

Is it simply losing players? Is it a schematic thing? Combination of the two? Something else? I don't know. But you have to hold people accountable for not performing and our defense has not performed up to expectations.

This is the problem that I have with the whole line of thinking... Yes, the defense got worse THIS YEAR. It also got better last year in most metrics after losing a ton in 2010. Stylistically, I'm on the record saying I didn't like it as much because it is more reactionary and less attacking. I prefer Diaz's kick your *** attacking scheme. However, we were supposed to be worse in 2011 than we were, and we were supposed to be better this year. Therefore, the net sum of Wilson's tenure is zero IMO. It is certainly not negative two as is being implied in your post...

In order for someone to convince me we need to get rid of Wilson RIGHT NOW, they would have to convince me that this was more than JUST a down year, and they statistically can not do that at this point. That is not a CLEAR TREND. Not yet.

Hindsight is 20/20 on this, and as I've indicated, I don't feel strongly either way, because there is simply not enough data/knowledge there for any of US to make an informed decision at this time. We may get worse next year on defense, in which case we should have gotten rid of him this year. But what happens IF we get much better? Most on this website looks like idiots, that's what(Butch Thompson ring a bell?). It's certainly possible with the talented redshirts and transfers entering the mix. My point is...why not trust Mullen to do what's best for us? IF he keeps Wilson and Northwestern/OK State torch us, why can't he turn over the playcalling on D to Collins? He's certainly qualified and ran an attacking scheme that we'd love in his previous stint as DC IMO... And that's something that wouldn't necessarily even have to be made public. Mullen has proven he would cut loose dead weight assistants in the past. If/when we get to that point with Chris Wilson, I will trust him to do the right thing.

The bowl game against Northwestern is going to tell us a whole hell of a lot about Wilson's stones as a coach IMO. I guess this website would be boring if it wasn't chock full of overreactionary people though...

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Stylistically, I'm on the record saying I didn't like it as much because it is more reactionary and less attacking.

Well on this we can agree. As a poster said earlier in this thread. Why give up yards? Why not force the issue? Even if we bend but don't break, those yards we give bending are costing us on offense. I'm not expert and certainly I hope we turn it around next year. But I'd love to have seen us get aggressive THIS year because of the experience in the back end of our defense. Alas, that chance is gone.

 

[engie]

Well on this we can agree. As a poster said earlier in this thread. Why give up yards? Why not force the issue? Even if we bend but don't break, those yards we give bending are costing us on offense. I'm not expert and certainly I hope we turn it around next year. But I'd love to have seen us get aggressive THIS year because of the experience in the back end of our defense. Alas, that chance is gone.

I'm with you on that... Was strongly with you before Ole Miss, Alabama, and A&M exposed our safety play in coverage. Still would have rather bring the house and never let those deeper routes develop. I'm still pissed that we had two corners that would've had Joe Lee salivating, and we basically wasted their talent this year. I see the impact of losing them being minimal, because their talents were minimized this year already by the scheme.

For as ****** as Dave Wommack has been in his career, and he's put together disastrous defenses, I much preferred the scheme he used at Ole Miss to the one we used at State this year. His scheme got the most out of those players in most instances, while Wilson's scheme got the least out of ours.

That said, Wilson is a 2nd yr DC. He's still learning. Ton of time to get things straightened out and to find a style that works well at MSU.

 

[Coach34]

Again, this is full of holes. You keep trying to make quantitative statements without doing quantitative analysis. and it makes your bias easy to pick apart.

1) So, scoring DEFENSE doesn't matter....but scoring OFFENSE is all that matters? That's about the gist of what your saying, correct? The irony is strong in this post...

2) If we increasted TOP by 4 minutes, that in and of itself would explain a small increase in offensive production, no? The difference is that the TOP isn't comparable between this year and the previous seasons, because this year we huddled and played clock control, whereas in the past we were mostly in the hurry-up. Total offensive plays does a much better job of telling the story on that.

3) Their "defense" wasn't the point of my post...their offense was. But, once again, you are talking SCORING, after telling us that it isn't important. Which is it? You aren't looking at any of the more complex metrics. You are cherrypicking, and you aren't even doing that on a consistent basis.

damn, I wore him down today...but Engie just straight up cut his head off

Engie- simply the best Miss State poster on the internets

 

[Coach34]

..


Finally, I don't have an agenda. When I see 34 make a statement that is clearly just him blowing smoke, I'm going to call him on it. The defense has been getting worse. That's not an opinion to anyone who's watching the games.

Is it simply losing players? Is it a schematic thing? Combination of the two? Something else? I don't know. But you have to hold people accountable for not performing and our defense has not performed up to expectations.

What exactly are you calling me on? I have not said one damn time the defense wasnt getting worse- I've wholeheartedly agreed that it has. I've even offered up the reason- our Defensive Line. So wtf are you calling me on?