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4A West Playoff Projections

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Eagles1313

Junior
Dec 3, 2009
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385
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Here's a way too early playoff projection
This is the bracket if the season was to end today.

#1 East Forsyth
#32 Marvin Ridge

#16 Hickory Ridge
#17 Reagan

#8 AC Reynolds
#25 Porter Ridge

#9 Ardrey Kell
#24 Olympic

#4 Watauga
#29 Alexander Central

#13 Asheville
#20 Butler

#12 Mallard Creek
#21 NW Guilford

#5 Mooresville
#28 South Caldwell


#3 Grimsley
#30 Davie

#14 Lake Norman
#19 Cox Mill

#11 Mount Tabor
#22 SE Guilford

#6 Charlotte Catholic
#27 AL Brown

#7 Weddington
#26 South Iredell

#10 Chambers
#23 Page

#15 Independence
#18 TC Roberson

#2 Hough
#31 SW Guilford


1st 4 out
Providence (can't jump Rocky River or East Meck)
Northern Guilford
McDowell
West Forsyth
 
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mpj2k8

Senior
Sep 12, 2009
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Curious to see where Olympic would end up if they run the table. AK is the only game on their schedule they could lose but they get that game at home.
 
O

Olympic12$

Sophomore
Jun 27, 2021
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mpj2k8 said:
Curious to see where Olympic would end up if they run the table. AK is the only game on their schedule they could lose but they get that game at home.
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Olympic would need to go undefeated to get a good seed .. their strength of schedule is not good at all .. they have beating up on bad teams ..
 
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mpj2k8

Senior
Sep 12, 2009
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They lost a nice chunk of their team to Palisades. Make me wonder how good they would be if they still had some of those players
 
G

GSO-Triple5

All-Conference
Dec 5, 2010
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Hon Dines said:
Good job! Finally someone know how to do these predictions by NCHSAA Seeding rules. Someone should show the poster doing the 4A East how it's done!
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Why don't you advise him how its calculated instead of acting like a two year old that's lost their bottle ?
 
H

Hon Dines

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2002
25,659
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mpj2k8 said:
You could simply ignore the thread and leave it for the people who enjoy the discussion
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from another poster on 4A east projections: really no point in doing them, if you are just going to throw it together willy nilly without doing some basic research on how they are supposed to be put together. (395 post lol)
 
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BlackKnight24

Sophomore
Apr 17, 2015
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this is what i looked up on the nchsaa for you information for all sports including footall

4.1.19 Seeding: (a) The pre-determined East and West Regions will be seeded independently of one another. (b) The teams in each region will be seeded as follows: (1) Seed all 1st place automatic berths by RPI rating (or other NCHSAA selected ranking system). NOTE: The highest finishing team in its half of a split conference must finish in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place overall and/or have an overall winning percentage of .500 or higher in order to be seeded as a #1. Otherwise, the team will be seeded with all other at-large teams. (2) Seed all 2nd place automatic berths or conference tournament champions and at-large berths by RPI rating (or other NCHSAA selected ranking system).
 
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D

drop_tables

All-Conference
Aug 14, 2004
4,510
1,654
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BlackKnight24 said:
and like the person said it's just a prediction not real seeding
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There is a difference between a prediction and a projection. But, throwing together a prediction based solely on RPI, isn't a prediction, it's just a lazy way to throwing together a bracket. If you're going to "predict" a bracket, have some kind of overarching foresight of all the conference battles, and make an educated prediction.... you owe that to yourself and everyone else who is going to look at it.

If you're not going to make a decent educated prediction, ATLEAST use the correct seeding method to give everyone an accurate PROJECTION. and if you can't do that, I suggest just not.
 
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jojr59

Senior
Apr 11, 2021
327
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nepsy7 said:
People actually act as though a seedling is going to help them. LMAO!! This year, if you’re looking for a seedling for help, you’re screwed.
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C'mon Nepsy, be nice. Some take great pride in the championship banners that hang in their school's trophy room and deservedly so. Some take pride in the seeding banners that hang in theirs. It's all they have.
 
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E

Eagles1313

Junior
Dec 3, 2009
422
385
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Updated Playoff Projections 10/9/22

#1 Hough
#32 Sun Valley

#16 Cox Mill
#17 SE Guilford

#8 AC Reynolds
#25 Olympic

#9 Ardrey Kell
#24 Page

#4 Mooresville
#29 South Caldwell

#13 Hickory Ridge
#20 Butler

#12 Mallard Creek
#21 TC Roberson

#5 Watauga
#28 Marvin Ridge

#3 Grimsley
#30 Alexander Central

#14 Mount Tabor
#19 NW Guilford

#11 Asheville
#22 Lake Norman

#6 Weddington
#27 AL Brown

#7 Charlotte Catholic
#26 South Iredell

#10 Chambers
#23 Porter Ridge

#15 Independence
#18 Reagan

#2 East Forsyth
#31 SW Guilford

First Four Out
Providence (can't get in until Rocky River or East Meck does or they move up in their conference)
Davie (can't get in until West Forsyth or Glenn does or they move up in their conference)
North Meck
Northern Guilford

**I do believe Providence will get in based on who they have left and I think Sun Valley will eventually be out based on who they have left. Davie will need to defeat West Forsyth and Glenn, so they control their own destiny.**

A lot of football still left to be played and all of this can change with one upset or one loss to someone in conference.
 
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W

wonder07

Sophomore
Apr 13, 2021
300
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I would think A.L. Brown and South Iredell both won’t make so really you could look at Friday night as a early taste of playoff football!
 
MVLsuxGoLKN

MVLsuxGoLKN

Senior
Jun 19, 2022
860
726
47
wonder07 said:
I would think A.L. Brown and South Iredell both won’t make so really you could look at Friday night as an early taste of playoff football!
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I think one of them will, but not both. If Providence wins out, my guess is that likely bumps the loser of this weeks game out
 
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mpj2k8

Senior
Sep 12, 2009
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Warhead1 said:
Rough road? It's 4A! Play the best beat the best prove to everyone you're the Champion
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That’s kinda silly, the goal is to win the championship, nobody cares who you played in route to winning it all. If these projections were true Hough would have a nice path to the West Finals. East Forsyth would get Indy and Chambers back to back weeks. From a physicality perspective that’s no joke. I guess it’s good to play them earlier when teams are physically more healthy but at what cost?
 
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Warhead1

Senior
Sep 8, 2009
1,474
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mpj2k8 said:
That’s kinda silly, the goal is to win the championship, nobody cares who you played in route to winning it all. If these projections were true Hough would have a nice path to the West Finals. East Forsyth would get Indy and Chambers back to back weeks. From a physicality perspective that’s no joke. I guess it’s good to play them earlier when teams are physically more healthy but at what cost?
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Those will change 3 more times before the end of the season. In 2011 Page beat NW Guilford, Butler, and Mallard Creek in back to back to back weeks. Nobody doubts thats one of the greatest teams of all time. If East Forsyth does get that draw its their chance to go down as one of the greatest of all time. My only complaint is if you're an undefeated conference champion in the 4A a 1 loss team or 2 loss team should never jump you.
 
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Warhead1

Senior
Sep 8, 2009
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671
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Eagles/Trojans13 said:
That is why I believe there should be more emphasis on your own winning percentage.
60/30/10 vs 30/40/30
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So does records mean nothing at all anymore? Its just conference champs are all thrown into a pool and highest RPI gets the high seed no matter the record?
 
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Eagles1313

Junior
Dec 3, 2009
422
385
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Your winning percentage is 30% of the RPI. Your opponents winning percentage is 40% of the RPI and your opponents opponents winning percentage is 30% of the RPI.

By that break down, who you play is more important than your record which is why i think it should 60% your winning percentage, 30% your opponents and 10% your opponents opponents
 
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mpj2k8

Senior
Sep 12, 2009
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Warhead1 said:
Those will change 3 more times before the end of the season. In 2011 Page beat NW Guilford, Butler, and Mallard Creek in back to back to back weeks. Nobody doubts thats one of the greatest teams of all time. If East Forsyth does get that draw its their chance to go down as one of the greatest of all time. My only complaint is if you're an undefeated conference champion in the 4A a 1 loss team or 2 loss team should never jump you.
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Interesting when I see greatest high school football teams of all time, people don’t mention that Page team often. From a rating perspective they are top 10 of all time
 
R

ravenscats

Redshirt
Jan 9, 2016
16
7
0
With East Forsyths upcoming schedule (3 low win percentage teams)...could they drop to the 3rd or 4th in the RPI / seed by the time the season is over?
 
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