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5-7 or better

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paindonthurt

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Apr 7, 2025
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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we go 5-7 or better. I KNOW 5-7 ISN'T GREAT. But by the end of the season i think intelligent people who are willing to admit they are wrong will think more of Lebby than they do now.

Here's why.

OL - been watching some highlights. Barring MORE than 1 really key injury (like a key starter being out for the season) i think our oline ends up looking pretty good by end of the year. Several guys look like they were aggressive in their highlights. Thats a big part of success. They are also big.

DL - It can't get worse. We added some potential talent. It could still be not great but that could still mean a significant improvement.

But i'm willing to bet on 5-7 if given 2-1 odds!!
 
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CaptainFalcon

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Apr 30, 2025
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One fear is we’re a 5 or 6 win caliber team with a 3 or 4 win schedule.

We only play two SEC teams unranked in the preseason and both are on the road. And obviously have the big ASU game in non con.

We got blown out a bunch last year. My worry is that the next step in the progression isn’t winning a lot more, but that it’s being more competitive and losing several close games that we will feel like got away.
 
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The Peeper

The Peeper

Heisman
Feb 26, 2008
15,405
10,553
113
paindonthurt said:
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we go 5-7 or better. I KNOW 5-7 ISN'T GREAT. But by the end of the season i think intelligent people who are willing to admit they are wrong will think more of Lebby than they do now.

Here's why.

OL - been watching some highlights. Barring MORE than 1 really key injury (like a key starter being out for the season) i think our oline ends up looking pretty good by end of the year. Several guys look like they were aggressive in their highlights. Thats a big part of success. They are also big.

DL - It can't get worse. We added some potential talent. It could still be not great but that could still mean a significant improvement.

But i'm willing to bet on 5-7 if given 2-1 odds!!
Click to expand...

You do realize that in those highlights you've been watching, that the OL you say is looking pretty good", is going up against that DL that you said "they can't get worse", don't you?
 
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615dawg

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
6,633
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CaptainFalcon said:
One fear is we’re a 5 or 6 win caliber team with a 3 or 4 win schedule.

We only play two SEC teams unranked in the preseason and both are on the road. And obviously have the big ASU game in non con.

We got blown out a bunch last year. My worry is that the next step in the progression isn’t winning a lot more, but that it’s being more competitive and losing several close games that we will feel like got away.
Click to expand...
This. I believe we are a 6-6 team under normal circumstances. Our schedule is too much this year. The key to getting to six wins is simple on paper.

1. That Saturday night Arizona State game is a must win. We are better than ASU talent wise except for QB. Skattebo is in New York. He cannot hurt us anymore. That game gives us our best shot at a top 10 home upset in years and would mean we likely start 4-0.

2. Arkansas or Missouri is going to implode this year. We have to take advantage and win at least one of those road games. A&M and Florida are going to be good, so those games are likely losses either way.

3. We have to pull off a home upset against Tennessee, Texas, Georgia or Ole Miss.
 
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A

anon1758050382

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Oct 6, 2022
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Nearly every SEC team is thin on the offensive line, so it seems unlikely that we will be one of the few teams with a good one.
 
W

Willow Grove Dawg

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2016
7,212
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615dawg said:
This. I believe we are a 6-6 team under normal circumstances. Our schedule is too much this year. The key to getting to six wins is simple on paper.

1. That Saturday night Arizona State game is a must win. We are better than ASU talent wise except for QB. Skattebo is in New York. He cannot hurt us anymore. That game gives us our best shot at a top 10 home upset in years and would mean we likely start 4-0.

2. Arkansas or Missouri is going to implode this year. We have to take advantage and win at least one of those road games. A&M and Florida are going to be good, so those games are likely losses either way.
Click to expand...
"Arkansas and/or Florida will implode this year."
I wish we played them at home. Tennessee at home is a possibility.
 
C

CaptainFalcon

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615dawg said:
1. That Saturday night Arizona State game is a must win. We are better than ASU talent wise except for QB. Skattebo is in New York. He cannot hurt us anymore. That game gives us our best shot at a top 10 home upset in years and would mean we likely start 4-0
Click to expand...

And see that’s where I struggle… our season and the psyche of our fan base appears to be dependent on beating a borderline Top 10 team where we hope they are worse because they lost their star RB…. Even though they bring back essentially everybody else and added a 1,000 yard rusher out of the portal.

I may be in the minority but I see ASU and Tennessee as similar levels of winnable. Definitely like ASU’s QB situation better. So I’m less focused on “can we be 4-0 before Tennessee” and more wondering can you just find a split between ASU and UT to get to a 4-1 start.
 
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paindonthurt

All-Conference
Apr 7, 2025
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CaptainFalcon said:
One fear is we’re a 5 or 6 win caliber team with a 3 or 4 win schedule.

We only play two SEC teams unranked in the preseason and both are on the road. And obviously have the big ASU game in non con.

We got blown out a bunch last year. My worry is that the next step in the progression isn’t winning a lot more, but that it’s being more competitive and losing several close games that we will feel like got away.
Click to expand...
This is why i think 5-7 should make people feel good. Aka 5-7 for dan mullen in 2009 (with 7 nfl players in the front 7 of his defense).

I'll actually feel good about 4-8 and being competitive in other games.
 
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Seinfeld

Seinfeld

All-American
Nov 30, 2006
11,116
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CaptainFalcon said:
And see that’s where I struggle… our season and the psyche of our fan base appears to be dependent on beating a borderline Top 10 team where we hope they are worse because they lost their star RB…. Even though they bring back essentially everybody else and added a 1,000 yard rusher out of the portal.

I may be in the minority but I see ASU and Tennessee as similar levels of winnable. Definitely like ASU’s QB situation better. So I’m less focused on “can we be 4-0 before Tennessee” and more wondering can you just find a split between ASU and UT to get to a 4-1 start.
Click to expand...
It really feels like we have the absolute worst luck with scheduling P4 opponents. ASU has only been remotely relevant a couple times during the last 30 years, and right after we sign up for a home and home with them, they morph into Top 15 powerhouse overnight
 
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CaptainFalcon

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Seinfeld said:
It really feels like we have the absolute worst luck with scheduling P4 opponents. ASU has only been remotely relevant a couple times during the last 30 years, and right after we sign up for a home and home with them, they morph into Top 15 powerhouse overnight
Click to expand...

West Virginia and Georgia Tech did that crap in the 2000’s, too. You can kinda argue Oregon but they weren’t great the two years we played them.
 
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DawgatAuburn

DawgatAuburn

All-Conference
Apr 25, 2006
11,004
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615dawg said:
1. That Saturday night Arizona State game is a must win. We are better than ASU talent wise except for QB. Skattebo is in New York. He cannot hurt us anymore. That game gives us our best shot at a top 10 home upset in years and would mean we likely start 4-0.
Click to expand...
Great that Skattebo is gone but the worry is moreso can our corners contain Levitt and the passing game. Looks like they have a thousand yard receiver returning along with a portal receiver who caught 100 balls over two years at Fresno.
 
H

Howiefeltersnstch

All-Conference
Dec 28, 2019
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I'm with PDH and Pat. With a little luck I could see us going to a bowl game this year. But a lot of that depends on injuries, or lack there of. We cant afford any and need some in our favor. Not that I would wish bad luck on any of our opponents ***
 
onewoof

onewoof

Heisman
Mar 4, 2008
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Every win we have will be ugly. Every loss we will look decent.

3 ugly wins and 9 morale victories.
 
PBRME

PBRME

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Feb 12, 2004
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paindonthurt said:
I can guarantee you if we start 4-0 or 4-1 with a loss to ASU and win against UTenn and then lose a game to anyone we’ll see the pitch forks. And we’ll hear how we are so talented but Lebby can’t coach.
Click to expand...
That’s not a problem we have to worry about. We’re not beating TN. Even though I don’t think ASU will be as good this year, we’re not beating them either.
 
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ronpolk

All-Conference
May 6, 2009
9,144
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paindonthurt said:
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we go 5-7 or better. I KNOW 5-7 ISN'T GREAT. But by the end of the season i think intelligent people who are willing to admit they are wrong will think more of Lebby than they do now.

Here's why.

OL - been watching some highlights. Barring MORE than 1 really key injury (like a key starter being out for the season) i think our oline ends up looking pretty good by end of the year. Several guys look like they were aggressive in their highlights. Thats a big part of success. They are also big.

DL - It can't get worse. We added some potential talent. It could still be not great but that could still mean a significant improvement.

But i'm willing to bet on 5-7 if given 2-1 odds!!
Click to expand...
I’m as big of a Lebby hater as possible but if he goes 5-7, then I’ll certainly shut up about him sucking. Not sure that I’d be willing to say he’s the answer but he will have at least shut me up. I’d be optimistic in the same manner I was optimistic after Mullen’s first season.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
56,672
26,007
113
615dawg said:
if we beat them
Click to expand...

Seinfeld said:
It really feels like we have the absolute worst luck with scheduling P4 opponents. ASU has only been remotely relevant a couple times during the last 30 years, and right after we sign up for a home and home with them, they morph into Top 15 powerhouse overnight
Click to expand...
It’s uncanny. GA Tech, West Virginia, and both Arizona schools. I’m sure I’m leaving some out.
 
Chesusdog

Chesusdog

All-Conference
May 2, 2006
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Considering our defense has spent the last two seasons embarrassing the piss out of us, I just don't see it. If Shapen stays healthy and we learn how to play half-way respectable defense then I'd consider 5 wins the absolute ceiling. Sadly, even if we are MUCH better than last year, the schedule is absolutely brutal.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
56,672
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Chesusdog said:
Considering our defense has spent the last two seasons embarrassing the piss out of us, I just don't see it. If Shapen stays healthy and we learn how to play half-way respectable defense then I'd consider 5 wins the absolute ceiling. Sadly, even if we are MUCH better than last year, the schedule is absolutely brutal.
Click to expand...
This schedule is right there with some of the toughest Mullen ever had to play. Not quite, but close. SEC just bent us over & reamed us out.
 
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615dawg

615dawg

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Houston was a top 15 team in 2009 - Mullens first year. They won 10 games that year. We played six ranked teams in '09, not counting Auburn, Kentucky and Arkansas, who were all ranked at some point and won 8-9 games. It is probably the only time in history we played two non conference ranked teams (Georgia Tech and Houston), and a third, Middle Tennessee was a 10 win team.

Maddest I have ever been at a football game. Had a TD pass called back that would have given us a two score lead for pass beyond the line of scrimmage. QB was two yards behind but no replay that year. Houston ended up escaping with a 31-24 win.
 
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Dawgbite

Dawgbite

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Why Does This Keep Happening GIF by Aurora Consulting: Business, Insurance, Financing Experts
 
Dawgg

Dawgg

Heisman
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paindonthurt said:
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we go 5-7 or better. I KNOW 5-7 ISN'T GREAT. But by the end of the season i think intelligent people who are willing to admit they are wrong will think more of Lebby than they do now.

Here's why.

OL - been watching some highlights. Barring MORE than 1 really key injury (like a key starter being out for the season) i think our oline ends up looking pretty good by end of the year. Several guys look like they were aggressive in their highlights. Thats a big part of success. They are also big.

DL - It can't get worse. We added some potential talent. It could still be not great but that could still mean a significant improvement.

But i'm willing to bet on 5-7 if given 2-1 odds!!
Click to expand...
I’ll take that action.

If our football team wins 5 or more games this season, I’ll take 6 months off from this board. No posting, no reactions, nothing.

If they win 4 or fewer games, then you have to take 3 months off from the board. No posting, no reactions, nothing.

No alts, no sock accounts, no subs, no aliases. You, the human behind the paindonthurt, or I, the human behind Dawgg, will not post here or react to a post until 3 months (in your case) or 6 months (in my case) after the season ends. Whoever loses gets one post no later than the Sunday after the end of the season to announce the beginning of their hiatus, then NOTHING for 3/6 months.

I tell you what… you can lurk, but that’s it.

In fact, I’ll sweeten the pot a little. For every game over 5 we win, I’ll tack on another month that I’ll refrain from posting.

Whaddya say?
 
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paindonthurt

All-Conference
Apr 7, 2025
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Dawgg said:
I’ll take that action.

If our football team wins 5 or more games this season, I’ll take 6 months off from this board. No posting, no reactions, nothing.

If they win 4 or fewer games, then you have to take 3 months off from the board. No posting, no reactions, nothing.

No alts, no sock accounts, no subs, no aliases. You, the human behind the paindonthurt, or I, the human behind Dawgg, will not post here or react to a post until 3 months (in your case) or 6 months (in my case) after the season ends. Whoever loses gets one post no later than the Sunday after the end of the season to announce the beginning of their hiatus, then NOTHING for 3/6 months.

I tell you what… you can lurk, but that’s it.

In fact, I’ll sweeten the pot a little. For every game over 5 we win, I’ll tack on another month that I’ll refrain from posting.

Whaddya say?
Click to expand...
Deal
 
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