Baseball RPI / postseason (long)

[Perd Hapley]

Very weird year in the RPI universe as it relates to seedings and regionals. There are quite a few more teams than usual with disproportionately good RPI’s vs. what they have actually done on the field. It’s interesting.

We’re currently at #34, which shouldn’t be anywhere close to being well-positioned for a long postseason run.

(9:30 PM UPDATE - now at #27 after Vandy series win)

But, there are quite a few teams ahead of us that have done other damage to their resumes that go beyond RPI, or have done nothing exceptional to warrant special consideration.

Just looking at who is currently ahead of us as of right now:

#30 Xavier - 22-21 overall, 6-5 in a horrible conference. Not a lot of meat on the bone for them to be in the postseason at all, besides RPI.

UPDATE - Xavier already now at #36 and already behind us

#29 Ole Miss - 7-14 in the SEC. 23-20 overall, barely over .500. They aren’t making the postseason as an at-large.

UPDATE - Ole Miss is now only 1 spot ahead at #26. Doesn’t really matter because they are completely out of the hosting picture.

#28 James Madison - 11-9 record in the Sun Belt. 25-17 overall. Hard to see them finishing in this RPI range no matter what. Won’t get slotted above any SEC at large team.

UPDATE - Now behind us

#26 UCF - 9-11 in the Big 12, 26-14 overall. Same boat as JMU.

UPDATE - Now behind us.

#23 Florida - 9-12 in SEC and just 22-21 overall, with 6 games coming up against national seed teams (Tennessee and Kentucky). A losing SEC record seems certain, and they have their work cut out for them to make the postseason at all. Not a host candidate even in a best case scenario.

UPDATE - moved up 2 spots to #21, but no real resume change. Not in the hosting picture.

#19 Coastal Carolina - 11-9 in the Sun Belt, 27-16 overall. Slightly better position than JMU / UCF above, but not much. Again, won’t get slotted above a legit SEC resume.

UPDATE - Tumbled down to #24 after another loss. Barely ahead of us, and we got them beat on overall resume.

#18 Alabama - 9-12 SEC record. But, favorable schedule moving forward. Could conceivably get to hosting consideration with a hot finish (example - win 7 of last 9 to finish 16-14). Our series against them next weekend will be critical for both teams position.

UPDATE - moved up to #15 after not playing and other movement around them. No real change that matters. They aren’t hosting without a 7-2 finish.

#13 Wake Forest - 12-11 in ACC. Need a strong finish. Won’t host at only .500 in ACC.

UPDATE - Lost again, now #16 and .500 in the ACC. Good for us.

#12 South Carolina - 10-10 in SEC. Same boat as Wake, pretty much.

UPDATE - Took the UK series and moved up a spot. Looks like we need to root for them to sweep UGA….they have 3 left against Mizzou so a very viable path regardless of UGA result. Lets get UGA out of the picture.

#10 UGA - 10-11 in SEC. Same boat as South Carolina, and they play each other in a few weeks. Pretty hard to see both them and USC getting what they need down the stretch to host.

UPDATE - No change here.

ADDED TO THE LIST - Vanderbilt. Vandy tumbled to #23 RPI. We’ve got them beat H2H (on the road) and better conference standing. I think right now the committee would favor us over them if the season ended today.

Big picture - that’s 10 teams we can potentially move above with a solid finish. By “solid” I’m going to say 15-15 in SEC play. I told everyone a few weeks ago we’d be more than fine with that finish or even potentially 14-16….based on where we were. I’m gonna double down on that and say not only will we be in, but we’ll be guaranteed a 2-seed if we finish in that zone. We’re essentially somewhere in the #24-26 range when you look at actual resume quality right now. I think we’re already better than every team on the list above except Wake / USC / UGA, at least one of which I think is guaranteed to fall out of hosting consideration.

We’ve already got what we needed from this weekend….a W today would be a huge bonus. But big, big series against Bama coming up.

UPDATE - Big win today lands us at #28 with the following teams ahead of us that we CURRENTLY trump resume wise - OM, Florida, Vandy, Coastal, Bama, Wake. So we’re in the ballpark of around #22 now when you look at full resume. Knocking on the door.

 

[HuntDawg]

Florida has the #1 SOS, and it will only be tougher. If they finished above 500, they'll get in as an at large.

Ole Miss would need to get to that 30 win mark to have a shot. Not that far fetched, but they'd have to play a lot better than they currently are.

Coastal will without question be slated above an SEC team with an RPI in the 30s. Also be in line for hosting before SEC teams. With a solid finish. Doesnt need to be super strong.

Alabama, UGA, South Carolina-- they are all in better shape than us. And unless they totally fall apart will finish with a better resume than we will. None of those 3 are in danger of having their RPIs drop down the stretch unless they go 2-7 to finish out.

Alabama probably just needs a 6-4 finish to be a host. Would put them 14-16 with a strong RPI.
South Carolina is currently 10-10 in conf with mizzou still to play. WIth 5 more SEC wins they'll basically be a guarenteed host
Georiga is 10-11, would be better RPI wise than us with 4 more wins. 5 more and they will be a no doubt host.

Also have to look at teams behind us. LSU can finish 7-3 and finish 14-16. Would probably jump us RPI wise. There are 3 big12 schools directly behind us in the RPI that are lurking. Also cant count out schools like Southern Miss (who has a huge weekend iwth Coastal upcoming) and even LaTech

But we are in, barring a dramatic collaspe. There is no difference in a 2 or 3 seed. Hosting would take winning today, and winning 2 of 3 at arkansas. Our RPI will continue to rise the next 2 weeks, because we are playing a tougher part of our schedule... BUT the last week of the regular season will see our RPI drop 5-7 points by playing mizzou, another 5 points by playing una. Thats even if we go 4-0. So if your wanting to be in the host conversation, we need a top 15 RPI going into the last week.

4 things to committee has shown:
1. RPI is king.
2. Head to head doesnt matter very much, if at all
3. Conference record doesnt trump RPI
4. Host sites will be selected by RPI, and they will award a smaller school over a big school if the RPI justifies.

 

[57stratdawg]

A win today and we’re right on the hosting bubble.

 

[8dog]

Florida has the #1 SOS, and it will only be tougher. If they finished above 500, they'll get in as an at large.

Ole Miss would need to get to that 30 win mark to have a shot. Not that far fetched, but they'd have to play a lot better than they currently are.

Coastal will without question be slated above an SEC team with an RPI in the 30s. Also be in line for hosting before SEC teams. With a solid finish. Doesnt need to be super strong.

Alabama, UGA, South Carolina-- they are all in better shape than us. And unless they totally fall apart will finish with a better resume than we will. None of those 3 are in danger of having their RPIs drop down the stretch unless they go 2-7 to finish out.

Alabama probably just needs a 6-4 finish to be a host. Would put them 14-16 with a strong RPI.
South Carolina is currently 10-10 in conf with mizzou still to play. WIth 5 more SEC wins they'll basically be a guarenteed host
Georiga is 10-11, would be better RPI wise than us with 4 more wins. 5 more and they will be a no doubt host.

Also have to look at teams behind us. LSU can finish 7-3 and finish 14-16. Would probably jump us RPI wise. There are 3 big12 schools directly behind us in the RPI that are lurking. Also cant count out schools like Southern Miss (who has a huge weekend iwth Coastal upcoming) and even LaTech

But we are in, barring a dramatic collaspe. There is no difference in a 2 or 3 seed. Hosting would take winning today, and winning 2 of 3 at arkansas. Our RPI will continue to rise the next 2 weeks, because we are playing a tougher part of our schedule... BUT the last week of the regular season will see our RPI drop 5-7 points by playing mizzou, another 5 points by playing una. Thats even if we go 4-0. So if your wanting to be in the host conversation, we need a top 15 RPI going into the last week.

4 things to committee has shown:
1. RPI is king.
2. Head to head doesnt matter very much, if at all
3. Conference record doesnt trump RPI
4. Host sites will be selected by RPI, and they will award a smaller school over a big school if the RPI justifies.

I don’t think anyone is hosting with a 14-16 conference record. Has that ever happened?

 

[She Mate Me]

Very weird year in the RPI universe as it relates to seedings and regionals. There are quite a few more teams than usual with disproportionately good RPI’s vs. what they have actually done on the field. It’s interesting.

We’re currently at #34, which shouldn’t be anywhere close to being well-positioned for a long postseason run.

But, there are quite a few teams ahead of us that have done other damage to their resumes that go beyond RPI, or have done nothing exceptional to warrant special consideration.

Just looking at who is currently ahead of us as of right now:

#30 Xavier - 22-21 overall, 6-5 in a horrible conference. Not a lot of meat on the bone for them to be in the postseason at all, besides RPI.

#29 Ole Miss - 7-14 in the SEC. 23-20 overall, barely over .500. They aren’t making the postseason as an at-large.

#28 James Madison - 11-9 record in the Sun Belt. 25-17 overall. Hard to see them finishing in this RPI range no matter what. Won’t get slotted above any SEC at large team.

#26 UCF - 9-11 in the Big 12, 26-14 overall. Same boat as JMU.

#23 Florida - 9-12 in SEC and just 22-21 overall, with 6 games coming up against national seed teams (Tennessee and Kentucky). A losing SEC record seems certain, and they have their work cut out for them to make the postseason at all. Not a host candidate even in a best case scenario.

#19 Coastal Carolina - 11-9 in the Sun Belt, 27-16 overall. Slightly better position than JMU / UCF above, but not much. Again, won’t get slotted above a legit SEC resume.

#18 Alabama - 9-12 SEC record. But, favorable schedule moving forward. Could conceivably get to hosting consideration with a hot finish (example - win 7 of last 9 to finish 16-14). Our series against them next weekend will be critical for both teams position.

#13 Wake Forest - 12-11 in ACC. Need a strong finish. Won’t host at only .500 in ACC.

#12 South Carolina - 10-10 in SEC. Same boat as Wake, pretty much.

#10 UGA - 10-11 in SEC. Same boat as South Carolina, and they play each other in a few weeks. Pretty hard to see both them and USC getting what they need down the stretch to host.

Big picture - that’s 10 teams we can potentially move above with a solid finish. By “solid” I’m going to say 15-15 in SEC play. I told everyone a few weeks ago we’d be more than fine with that finish or even potentially 14-16….based on where we were. I’m gonna double down on that and say not only will we be in, but we’ll be guaranteed a 2-seed if we finish in that zone. We’re essentially somewhere in the #24-26 range when you look at actual resume quality right now. I think we’re already better than every team on the list above except Wake / USC / UGA, at least one of which I think is guaranteed to fall out of hosting consideration.

We’ve already got what we needed from this weekend….a W today would be a huge bonus. But big, big series against Bama coming up.

Good info. I knew there were a lot of teams with pretty damn weak resumes ahead of us in RPI, but hadn't put in the time to quantify it.

We are going to be dependent on some resume builders since our RPI won't be in the typical hosting range.

I said yesterday that today's game was not that big a deal, but thinking a bit more, a road series win at Vandy could be very important. Both in the obvious and the fact that it might separate us from them in a future discussion.

 

[HuntDawg]

I don’t think anyone is hosting with a 14-16 conference record. Has that ever happened?

Not sure. If so. Then obviously those teams would need to get to that 15 mark.

But by looking at the schedules of Alabama (9-12), South Carolina (10-10), and Georgia (10-11)--- none are going to see a big downswing in RPI, if they go 4-5 down the stretch. Alabama i dont think would host at 13-17. UGA and South Carolina would make a strong case for it.

That said I think USC for sure gets to 15. Georgia can (6 of 9 at home). Alabama has auburn left, but would need a sweep most likely somewhere to get to 15.

LSU probably cant. and we know what we'd have to do to get to 15.

 

[patdog]

A win today and we’re right on the hosting bubble.

Not even close.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Not even close.

Correct.

We need to be in the viable 1-seed conversation for that to happen and we’re not there yet.

 

[Seinfeld]

Very weird year in the RPI universe as it relates to seedings and regionals. There are quite a few more teams than usual with disproportionately good RPI’s vs. what they have actually done on the field. It’s interesting.

We’re currently at #34, which shouldn’t be anywhere close to being well-positioned for a long postseason run.

But, there are quite a few teams ahead of us that have done other damage to their resumes that go beyond RPI, or have done nothing exceptional to warrant special consideration.

Just looking at who is currently ahead of us as of right now:

#30 Xavier - 22-21 overall, 6-5 in a horrible conference. Not a lot of meat on the bone for them to be in the postseason at all, besides RPI.

#29 Ole Miss - 7-14 in the SEC. 23-20 overall, barely over .500. They aren’t making the postseason as an at-large.

#28 James Madison - 11-9 record in the Sun Belt. 25-17 overall. Hard to see them finishing in this RPI range no matter what. Won’t get slotted above any SEC at large team.

#26 UCF - 9-11 in the Big 12, 26-14 overall. Same boat as JMU.

#23 Florida - 9-12 in SEC and just 22-21 overall, with 6 games coming up against national seed teams (Tennessee and Kentucky). A losing SEC record seems certain, and they have their work cut out for them to make the postseason at all. Not a host candidate even in a best case scenario.

#19 Coastal Carolina - 11-9 in the Sun Belt, 27-16 overall. Slightly better position than JMU / UCF above, but not much. Again, won’t get slotted above a legit SEC resume.

#18 Alabama - 9-12 SEC record. But, favorable schedule moving forward. Could conceivably get to hosting consideration with a hot finish (example - win 7 of last 9 to finish 16-14). Our series against them next weekend will be critical for both teams position.

#13 Wake Forest - 12-11 in ACC. Need a strong finish. Won’t host at only .500 in ACC.

#12 South Carolina - 10-10 in SEC. Same boat as Wake, pretty much.

#10 UGA - 10-11 in SEC. Same boat as South Carolina, and they play each other in a few weeks. Pretty hard to see both them and USC getting what they need down the stretch to host.

Big picture - that’s 10 teams we can potentially move above with a solid finish. By “solid” I’m going to say 15-15 in SEC play. I told everyone a few weeks ago we’d be more than fine with that finish or even potentially 14-16….based on where we were. I’m gonna double down on that and say not only will we be in, but we’ll be guaranteed a 2-seed if we finish in that zone. We’re essentially somewhere in the #24-26 range when you look at actual resume quality right now. I think we’re already better than every team on the list above except Wake / USC / UGA, at least one of which I think is guaranteed to fall out of hosting consideration.

We’ve already got what we needed from this weekend….a W today would be a huge bonus. But big, big series against Bama coming up.

That list of teams in front of us is just wild. A who’s who of mediocre to downright bad teams which tells me this…

Schedule hard, win those games = you’ll be fine
Schedule hard, lose a bunch of games = you’ll be fine
Schedule weak, win those games = you’ll be fine
Schedule weak, lose a bunch of those games = you will NOT be fine

This year’s schedule should not ever be allowed again

 

[57stratdawg]

Not even close.

If you think the SEC can have 5 host sites, our case is as strong as anyone’s for the 5th. Would you at least give me that?

Like OP pointed out, we’ve got a lot of teams ahead of us in RPI that won’t get a serious look at hosting a regional.

 

[3-2 Dawg]

We absolutely have a chance to play our way into the hosting discussion. Will we? - who knows but the next 8 games are all great opps to put points on the resume

 

[patdog]

If you think the SEC can have 5 host sites, our case is as strong as anyone’s for the 5th. Would you at least give me that?

Like OP pointed out, we’ve got a lot of teams ahead of us in RPI that won’t get a serious look at hosting a regional.

Carolina will be 5th & last SEC host. We’ll be a 2 seed somewhere.

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

We really need a W today - would be huge for RPI and confidence but, taking two of three from Bama, getting one W at Arkansas and sweeping Missouri is really a must to have a good shot at hosting and then that may not be enough.

 

[Perd Hapley]

If you think the SEC can have 5 host sites, our case is as strong as anyone’s for the 5th. Would you at least give me that?

Like OP pointed out, we’ve got a lot of teams ahead of us in RPI that won’t get a serious look at hosting a regional.

This is the gist.

Strictly from hosting perspective from SEC, 16-14 is the minimum threshold. It may have happened once or twice, ever, with a 15-15 team. But you can’t ever count on that no matter how good the RPI is.

So, who has a reasonable path to 16-14?

Ole Miss does not.

Florida does not.

LSU definitely does not.

UGA or USC might, but not both of them.

Alabama has a slight chance, but it’s a long shot. Need 7 of 9.

A lot of those teams are ahead of us RIGHT NOW in RPI, but that doesn’t really matter when you look at the whole picture. It won’t finish that way. That means if we’re 15-15 and, say, Bama or UF finishes 15-15, they might get a higher 2-seed than us. But who really cares about that?

Bottom line - we are not on the hosting bubble, yet. Still won’t be if we win today, either. But, we’re a very solid 2-seed at this point with very little doubt. And we’re very well positioned against every “hosting bubble” team in the SEC except USC/UGA, and they are going to beat up on each other a little bit, and also have some other tough series remaining as well.

 

[8dog]

If you think the SEC can have 5 host sites, our case is as strong as anyone’s for the 5th. Would you at least give me that?

Like OP pointed out, we’ve got a lot of teams ahead of us in RPI that won’t get a serious look at hosting a regional.

I don’t think a sec team outside the top 16 is hosting. Auburn got one at 19 last year but that was pretty questionable.

 

[HuntDawg]

15-15 with a good rpi will trump 16-14.

kentucky
Tenn
Vandy
Arkansas

are all virtual locks at this point

South Carolina is very close to the 5th lock

georiga
Alabama
Us
Lsu

in that order are the next shots. But after Georgia there is a sizeabke gap. Georgia also has a reason route to 15 wins

 

[HuntDawg]

I don’t think a sec team outside the top 16 is hosting. Auburn got one at 19 last year but that was pretty questionable.

Exactly. And auburn won 17 sec games plus tournament games

 

[She Mate Me]

That list of teams in front of us is just wild. A who’s who of mediocre to downright bad teams which tells me this…

Schedule hard, win those games = you’ll be fine
Schedule hard, lose a bunch of games = you’ll be fine
Schedule weak, win those games = you’ll be fine
Schedule weak, lose a bunch of those games = you will NOT be fine

This year’s schedule should not ever be allowed again

What shouldn't be allowed is any level of dependence on the seriously flawed RPI rating. There are much better options and it's just ridiculous that RPI is the go to.

 

[She Mate Me]

I don’t think a sec team outside the top 16 is hosting. Auburn got one at 19 last year but that was pretty questionable.

I'll throw this out.

If we get this one today, get 2 vs Bama, 1 vs Arky and sweep Mizzou, we are 18-12 in the SEC and still likely not all that close to Top 16 RPI.

Do we host??

 

[patdog]

I'll throw this out.

If we get this one today, get 2 vs Bama, 1 vs Arky and sweep Mizzou, we are 18-12 in the SEC and still likely not all that close to Top 16 RPI.

Do we host??

Nope. Schedule just far too weak. That puts us about 20-25 RPI. Not good enough.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

I'll throw this out.

If we get this one today, get 2 vs Bama, 1 vs Arky and sweep Mizzou, we are 18-12 in the SEC and still likely not all that close to Top 16 RPI.

Do we host??

No, there's some precedent of SEC teams with a bad RPI not hosting at 18-12. For example, us in 2014, or Arkansas in 2022.

 

[Perd Hapley]

15-15 with a good rpi will trump 16-14.

kentucky
Tenn
Vandy
Arkansas

are all virtual locks at this point

South Carolina is very close to the 5th lock

georiga
Alabama
Us
Lsu

in that order are the next shots. But after Georgia there is a sizeabke gap. Georgia also has a reason route to 15 wins

15-15 with any RPI isn’t hosting though.

Again, not gonna split hairs about how a 16-14 MSU would stack up vs. a 15-15 Alabama or USC or UGA as it relates to who is the best 2-seed.

If all 4 of those teams finish with those records (16-14 for MSU and the other 3 at 15-15), then the most likely scenario is that none of them are hosting. But if any of them would host, it would be MSU. Especially if we took 2 of 3 against Bama and thus had H2H over 2 of the other 3 teams without playing the 3rd.

Overall point - we’d need both a strong finish AND some help from elsewhere to seriously enter the hosting conversation. But our overall position vs. some other teams in the SEC in our same boat isn’t terrible….in spite of current RPI.

 

[HuntDawg]

15-15 with any RPI isn’t hosting though.

Again, not gonna split hairs about how a 16-14 MSU would stack up vs. a 15-15 Alabama or USC or UGA as it relates to who is the best 2-seed.

If all 4 of those teams finish with those records (16-14 for MSU and the other 3 at 15-15), then the most likely scenario is that none of them are hosting. But if any of them would host, it would be MSU. Especially if we took 2 of 3 against Bama and thus had H2H over 2 of the other 3 teams without playing the 3rd.

Overall point - we’d need both a strong finish AND some help from elsewhere to seriously enter the hosting conversation. But our overall position vs. some other teams in the SEC in our same boat isn’t terrible….in spite of current RPI.

16-14 msu
15-15 usc
15-15 uga
15-15 Alabama

we would be 4th on that tier. Rpi wise we would be without question and due to the committee consistently using rpi as the ticket, it will hurt us.

There is no way a 15 win uga, usc, and Alabama would lose much if any rpi wise. And us getting to 16 wins isn’t going to make up the margin. Us with 16 wins is going to have an rpi in the mid to high 20s. sC and uga at 15, will be around 10, Bama’s rpi will rise if they get to 15 and it’s already 15 points better than ours.

Rpi is king. Until the committee shows something else. Our rpi is going to lose any and all tie breakers in the sec

head to head has been proven to not matter with the committee

 

[patdog]

16-14 msu
15-15 usc
15-15 uga
15-15 Alabama

we would be 4th on that tier. Rpi wise we would be without question and due to the committee consistently using rpi as the ticket, it will hurt us.

There is no way a 15 win uga, usc, and Alabama would lose much if any rpi wise. And us getting to 16 wins isn’t going to make up the margin. Us with 16 wins is going to have an rpi in the mid to high 20s. sC and uga at 15, will be around 10, Bama’s rpi will rise if they get to 15 and it’s already 15 points better than ours.

Rpi is king. Until the committee shows something else. Our rpi is going to lose any and all tie breakers in the sec

I doubt any of those 4 teams host. Where we stand vs them is irrelevant.

 

[HuntDawg]

I doubt any of those 4 teams host. Where we stand vs them is irrelevant.

Sec will get 5 hosts. Conference is too strong not too.

that said where we stand against anyone doesn’t matter I totally agree. Best resume and rpi will get the spot

 

[patdog]

Sec will get 5 hosts. Conference is too strong not too.

that said where we stand against anyone doesn’t matter I totally agree. Best resume and rpi will get the spot

Never mind. Just now seeing Carolina is 1 of the 4 teams.

 

[pseudonym]

Since A&M and Missouri joined the SEC:

17-13 host	17-13 non-host	18-12 host	18-12 non-host
2023 Auburn 2021 Florida 2019 LSU 2014 Vanderbilt	2022 LSU 2018 South Carolina 2017 Mississippi State	2021 Ole Miss 2018 Arkansas 2018 Ole Miss 2018 Georgia 2016 Ole Miss 2016 Vanderbilt 2014 South Carolina	2022 Arkansas 2014 Mississippi State

We're in the conversation at 17-13, but even 18-12 doesn't lock up a host. I'm afraid our RPI puts us in the wrong column, even at 18-12.

I still say we will be a very tough 2-seed.

 

[She Mate Me]

Since A&M and Missouri joined the SEC:

17-13 host	17-13 non-host	18-12 host	18-12 non-host
2023 Auburn 2021 Florida 2019 LSU 2014 Vanderbilt	2022 LSU 2018 South Carolina 2017 Mississippi State	2021 Ole Miss 2018 Arkansas 2018 Ole Miss 2018 Georgia 2016 Ole Miss 2016 Vanderbilt 2014 South Carolina	2022 Arkansas 2014 Mississippi State

We're in the conversation at 17-13, but even 18-12 doesn't lock up a host. I'm afraid our RPI puts us in the wrong column, even at 18-12.

I still say we will be a very tough 2-seed.

Well Arkansas red assed their way to Omaha after getting screwed in 2022.

 

[pseudonym]

Well Arkansas red assed their way to Omaha after getting screwed in 2022.

I don't remember much from that season, but how were they sent as a 2-seed to the #7 national seed?

18-12 in the SEC, 3rd in the SEC standings.

And there were only four SEC hosts that year. It's not like there were too many SEC teams to choose from. 15-15 Florida hosted that year (and lost at home).

 

[Perd Hapley]

16-14 msu
15-15 usc
15-15 uga
15-15 Alabama

we would be 4th on that tier. Rpi wise we would be without question and due to the committee consistently using rpi as the ticket, it will hurt us.

There is no way a 15 win uga, usc, and Alabama would lose much if any rpi wise. And us getting to 16 wins isn’t going to make up the margin. Us with 16 wins is going to have an rpi in the mid to high 20s. sC and uga at 15, will be around 10, Bama’s rpi will rise if they get to 15 and it’s already 15 points better than ours.

Rpi is king. Until the committee shows something else. Our rpi is going to lose any and all tie breakers in the sec

head to head has been proven to not matter with the committee

aGAIN…..likely none of those teams would host. They don’t give out host sites to teams that play .500 ball in their conference. Not even USC or UGA is getting that treatment….no matter the RPI.

After today, if USC and UGA both falter to 15-15 or worse, we take the Bama series and 3 total from Ark / Mizzou, that’s 17-13. Then Wake and Coastal have a lackluster finish, that’d probably be enough. I’d say at this point, win the Bama series, we’re officially on the hosting bubble.

And one more thing, you can see how the nonconference schedule still wasn’t the albatross it was made out to be (like it was 2 years ago). It was good enough for us to be in the host picture with an over .500 mark in SEC play. But we still need to cancel that 17ing UNA game.

 

[She Mate Me]

I don't remember much from that season, but how were they sent as a 2-seed to the #7 national seed?

18-12 in the SEC, 3rd in the SEC standings.

And there were only four SEC hosts that year. It's not like there were too many SEC teams to choose from. 15-15 Florida hosted that year (and lost at home).

I may be misremembering, but I think they were a Top 5 to 10 type team in all bit the ridiculous RPI most of the year. Played a weak noncon schedule.

Lost some series late and got over penalized for it.

 

[3-2 Dawg]

Feels like this is a weird RPI year where the committee has to look beyond it a bit. State going to be in top 25 rankings this week with a winnable home series against Bama ahead of them. Win that one and they are at least in the conversation

 

[She Mate Me]

Feels like this is a weird RPI year where the committee has to look beyond it a bit. State going to be in top 25 rankings this week with a winnable home series against Bama ahead of them. Win that one and they are at least in the conversation

But Hunt is not wrong about how much weight the committee puts on RPI.

Have I mentioned how ridiculous that is??...

 

[patdog]

I still say we will be a very tough 2-seed.

This is the right answer. This team has a lot of weaknesses & no depth at all. But I’d put our #1 & #2 starters up against anyone’s. That always gives us a pretty decent shot at bring the 2-0 team going into the regional finals. And that’s how you win regionals.

 

[57stratdawg]

Feels like this is a weird RPI year where the committee has to look beyond it a bit. State going to be in top 25 rankings this week with a winnable home series against Bama ahead of them. Win that one and they are at least in the conversation

This is where I am. Plus, if we’re doing what we need to do, our RPI is going to continue to climb.

We could easily end up in the Top 20.

 

[HuntDawg]

aGAIN…..likely none of those teams would host. They don’t give out host sites to teams that play .500 ball in their conference. Not even USC or UGA is getting that treatment….no matter the RPI.

After today, if USC and UGA both falter to 15-15 or worse, we take the Bama series and 3 total from Ark / Mizzou, that’s 17-13. Then Wake and Coastal have a lackluster finish, that’d probably be enough. I’d say at this point, win the Bama series, we’re officially on the hosting bubble.

And one more thing, you can see how the nonconference schedule still wasn’t the albatross it was made out to be (like it was 2 years ago). It was good enough for us to be in the host picture with an over .500 mark in SEC play. But we still need to cancel that 17ing UNA game.

We aren’t in the host picture.

what that schedule did was force us to win 17-18 sec games to even be considered for a host spot

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

aGAIN…..likely none of those teams would host. They don’t give out host sites to teams that play .500 ball in their conference. Not even USC or UGA is getting that treatment….no matter the RPI.

After today, if USC and UGA both falter to 15-15 or worse, we take the Bama series and 3 total from Ark / Mizzou, that’s 17-13. Then Wake and Coastal have a lackluster finish, that’d probably be enough. I’d say at this point, win the Bama series, we’re officially on the hosting bubble.

And one more thing, you can see how the nonconference schedule still wasn’t the albatross it was made out to be (like it was 2 years ago). It was good enough for us to be in the host picture with an over .500 mark in SEC play. But we still need to cancel that 17ing UNA game.

The timer is set for the sprinklers to drown the 17'ing field, so that it will be unplayable for the scheduled UNA game.

 

[3-2 Dawg]

Down to 27 in RPI with 7 quad 1 opps in front of them. Going 3-1 next week feels like they would be firmly in the conversation. Admittedly a big if

 

[She Mate Me]

We aren’t in the host picture.

what that schedule did was force us to win 17-18 sec games to even be considered for a host spot

It's the noncon record, not the noncon schedule. Win early games we should have and our RPI is fine.

 

[HuntDawg]

It's the noncon record, not the noncon schedule. Win early games we should have and our RPI is fine.

Or you could take the swac schools out. Play a real team in a weekend series on the road or in a neutral site prior to the conference schedule…

then it doesn’t matter if you win or lose those games… that alone raises the rpi 10-15 notches.