Very weird year in the RPI universe as it relates to seedings and regionals. There are quite a few more teams than usual with disproportionately good RPI’s vs. what they have actually done on the field. It’s interesting.
We’re currently at #34, which shouldn’t be anywhere close to being well-positioned for a long postseason run.
(9:30 PM UPDATE - now at #27 after Vandy series win)
But, there are quite a few teams ahead of us that have done other damage to their resumes that go beyond RPI, or have done nothing exceptional to warrant special consideration.
Just looking at who is currently ahead of us as of right now:
#30 Xavier - 22-21 overall, 6-5 in a horrible conference. Not a lot of meat on the bone for them to be in the postseason at all, besides RPI.
UPDATE - Xavier already now at #36 and already behind us
#29 Ole Miss - 7-14 in the SEC. 23-20 overall, barely over .500. They aren’t making the postseason as an at-large.
UPDATE - Ole Miss is now only 1 spot ahead at #26. Doesn’t really matter because they are completely out of the hosting picture.
#28 James Madison - 11-9 record in the Sun Belt. 25-17 overall. Hard to see them finishing in this RPI range no matter what. Won’t get slotted above any SEC at large team.
UPDATE - Now behind us
#26 UCF - 9-11 in the Big 12, 26-14 overall. Same boat as JMU.
UPDATE - Now behind us.
#23 Florida - 9-12 in SEC and just 22-21 overall, with 6 games coming up against national seed teams (Tennessee and Kentucky). A losing SEC record seems certain, and they have their work cut out for them to make the postseason at all. Not a host candidate even in a best case scenario.
UPDATE - moved up 2 spots to #21, but no real resume change. Not in the hosting picture.
#19 Coastal Carolina - 11-9 in the Sun Belt, 27-16 overall. Slightly better position than JMU / UCF above, but not much. Again, won’t get slotted above a legit SEC resume.
UPDATE - Tumbled down to #24 after another loss. Barely ahead of us, and we got them beat on overall resume.
#18 Alabama - 9-12 SEC record. But, favorable schedule moving forward. Could conceivably get to hosting consideration with a hot finish (example - win 7 of last 9 to finish 16-14). Our series against them next weekend will be critical for both teams position.
UPDATE - moved up to #15 after not playing and other movement around them. No real change that matters. They aren’t hosting without a 7-2 finish.
#13 Wake Forest - 12-11 in ACC. Need a strong finish. Won’t host at only .500 in ACC.
UPDATE - Lost again, now #16 and .500 in the ACC. Good for us.
#12 South Carolina - 10-10 in SEC. Same boat as Wake, pretty much.
UPDATE - Took the UK series and moved up a spot. Looks like we need to root for them to sweep UGA….they have 3 left against Mizzou so a very viable path regardless of UGA result. Lets get UGA out of the picture.
#10 UGA - 10-11 in SEC. Same boat as South Carolina, and they play each other in a few weeks. Pretty hard to see both them and USC getting what they need down the stretch to host.
UPDATE - No change here.
ADDED TO THE LIST - Vanderbilt. Vandy tumbled to #23 RPI. We’ve got them beat H2H (on the road) and better conference standing. I think right now the committee would favor us over them if the season ended today.
Big picture - that’s 10 teams we can potentially move above with a solid finish. By “solid” I’m going to say 15-15 in SEC play. I told everyone a few weeks ago we’d be more than fine with that finish or even potentially 14-16….based on where we were. I’m gonna double down on that and say not only will we be in, but we’ll be guaranteed a 2-seed if we finish in that zone. We’re essentially somewhere in the #24-26 range when you look at actual resume quality right now. I think we’re already better than every team on the list above except Wake / USC / UGA, at least one of which I think is guaranteed to fall out of hosting consideration.
We’ve already got what we needed from this weekend….a W today would be a huge bonus. But big, big series against Bama coming up.
UPDATE - Big win today lands us at #28 with the following teams ahead of us that we CURRENTLY trump resume wise - OM, Florida, Vandy, Coastal, Bama, Wake. So we’re in the ballpark of around #22 now when you look at full resume. Knocking on the door.
We’re currently at #34, which shouldn’t be anywhere close to being well-positioned for a long postseason run.
(9:30 PM UPDATE - now at #27 after Vandy series win)
But, there are quite a few teams ahead of us that have done other damage to their resumes that go beyond RPI, or have done nothing exceptional to warrant special consideration.
Just looking at who is currently ahead of us as of right now:
#30 Xavier - 22-21 overall, 6-5 in a horrible conference. Not a lot of meat on the bone for them to be in the postseason at all, besides RPI.
UPDATE - Xavier already now at #36 and already behind us
#29 Ole Miss - 7-14 in the SEC. 23-20 overall, barely over .500. They aren’t making the postseason as an at-large.
UPDATE - Ole Miss is now only 1 spot ahead at #26. Doesn’t really matter because they are completely out of the hosting picture.
#28 James Madison - 11-9 record in the Sun Belt. 25-17 overall. Hard to see them finishing in this RPI range no matter what. Won’t get slotted above any SEC at large team.
UPDATE - Now behind us
#26 UCF - 9-11 in the Big 12, 26-14 overall. Same boat as JMU.
UPDATE - Now behind us.
#23 Florida - 9-12 in SEC and just 22-21 overall, with 6 games coming up against national seed teams (Tennessee and Kentucky). A losing SEC record seems certain, and they have their work cut out for them to make the postseason at all. Not a host candidate even in a best case scenario.
UPDATE - moved up 2 spots to #21, but no real resume change. Not in the hosting picture.
#19 Coastal Carolina - 11-9 in the Sun Belt, 27-16 overall. Slightly better position than JMU / UCF above, but not much. Again, won’t get slotted above a legit SEC resume.
UPDATE - Tumbled down to #24 after another loss. Barely ahead of us, and we got them beat on overall resume.
#18 Alabama - 9-12 SEC record. But, favorable schedule moving forward. Could conceivably get to hosting consideration with a hot finish (example - win 7 of last 9 to finish 16-14). Our series against them next weekend will be critical for both teams position.
UPDATE - moved up to #15 after not playing and other movement around them. No real change that matters. They aren’t hosting without a 7-2 finish.
#13 Wake Forest - 12-11 in ACC. Need a strong finish. Won’t host at only .500 in ACC.
UPDATE - Lost again, now #16 and .500 in the ACC. Good for us.
#12 South Carolina - 10-10 in SEC. Same boat as Wake, pretty much.
UPDATE - Took the UK series and moved up a spot. Looks like we need to root for them to sweep UGA….they have 3 left against Mizzou so a very viable path regardless of UGA result. Lets get UGA out of the picture.
#10 UGA - 10-11 in SEC. Same boat as South Carolina, and they play each other in a few weeks. Pretty hard to see both them and USC getting what they need down the stretch to host.
UPDATE - No change here.
ADDED TO THE LIST - Vanderbilt. Vandy tumbled to #23 RPI. We’ve got them beat H2H (on the road) and better conference standing. I think right now the committee would favor us over them if the season ended today.
Big picture - that’s 10 teams we can potentially move above with a solid finish. By “solid” I’m going to say 15-15 in SEC play. I told everyone a few weeks ago we’d be more than fine with that finish or even potentially 14-16….based on where we were. I’m gonna double down on that and say not only will we be in, but we’ll be guaranteed a 2-seed if we finish in that zone. We’re essentially somewhere in the #24-26 range when you look at actual resume quality right now. I think we’re already better than every team on the list above except Wake / USC / UGA, at least one of which I think is guaranteed to fall out of hosting consideration.
We’ve already got what we needed from this weekend….a W today would be a huge bonus. But big, big series against Bama coming up.
UPDATE - Big win today lands us at #28 with the following teams ahead of us that we CURRENTLY trump resume wise - OM, Florida, Vandy, Coastal, Bama, Wake. So we’re in the ballpark of around #22 now when you look at full resume. Knocking on the door.
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