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Big Ten Tournament Double-bye Watch

R

RUtrumpet92_rivals498139

All-American
Feb 5, 2003
10,900
9,218
113
If we win out, we are in solid shape for a double bye if Michigan drops one. I found a scenario where there is a five way tie at 12-8 and we get the 3 seed. Still too many variables to easily say what the options are.

If only we were credited with that Ohio State win.
 
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R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,376
43,475
113
If the tourney were today, we'd be the 4 seed (out of the 8 teams from 5-12, after the play-in games) playing MSU (5 seed), because IA and IL both own tiebreakers over us, so let's do what we can to avoid having to play MSU, as I'd much rather play one of the bottom 4 in the first round. In theory we have the easier path, though with a game at MN and a home game vs. a now shaky NW, while IL has UM at home and then Purdue on the road and IA is at IU and then has NE at home. Of course, many other things can happen, too, but that's just looking at those 3 teams. To me it's more important, anyway, to lock up the NCAAs and we do that by beating a bad MN team; after that it's gravy and seeding.
 
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J

JavaDunk18

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2011
1,102
1,014
0
All Wisconsin needed to do was foul on the inbound to Dickenson.. no way were they recovering when a 7ft1 guy hits an NBA three at the buzzer to force OT..
 
-RUFAN4LIFE-

-RUFAN4LIFE-

Heisman
Feb 28, 2015
29,766
46,200
113
RutgersNo1 said:
TeamConference RecordOpponent #1Opponent #2
Maryland11-7@OSU@PSU
NW11-7PSU@Rutgers
Indiana11-7IowaMichigan
Michigan11-7@Illinois@Indiana
Illinois10-8Michigan@Purdue
Iowa10-8@IndianaNebraska
Rutgers10-8@MinnesotaNW

BIG TEN BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT TIEBREAKERS: https://btn.com/big-ten-basketball-tiebreakers/
Click to expand...
RU would be in the middle of the double bye if a couple of morons moonlighting as referees made the proper call at Ohio St.
 
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Upstream

Upstream

Heisman
Jul 31, 2001
35,279
10,250
113
RutgersNo1 said:
TeamConference RecordOpponent #1Opponent #2
Maryland11-7@OSU@PSU
NW11-7PSU@Rutgers
Indiana11-7IowaMichigan
Michigan11-7@Illinois@Indiana
Illinois10-8Michigan@Purdue
Iowa10-8@IndianaNebraska
Rutgers10-8@MinnesotaNW

BIG TEN BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT TIEBREAKERS: https://btn.com/big-ten-basketball-tiebreakers/
Click to expand...
Based on this, if we win the next two, the worst we can finish is tied for 4th place (though that doesn't necessarily mean we get the 4 seed).

We have 8 losses, and if we beat Minn and NW we will finish with 8 losses. NW will have at least 8 losses. And since Mich and Indiana play each other, one of them will have 8 losses. That leaves Purdue, Maryland and the winner of Ind/Mich as the only schools that could finish ahead of us. (And if Maryland and the winner of Ind/Mich each lose another game, we would finish tied for second place.)

Of course, for that to happen, we have to win the next two.
 
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R

Rutgers25

All-American
Jul 29, 2001
7,579
5,794
83
Seems fairly likely we get double bye if we win out and that we end up in 8 or 9 slot if we go 1-1. 0-2 puts us at risk of being in 11 slot although more likely outcome is 10 slot
 
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K

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
JavaDunk18 said:
All Wisconsin needed to do was foul on the inbound to Dickenson.. no way were they recovering when a 7ft1 guy hits an NBA three at the buzzer to force OT..
Click to expand...
I mean let's say Michigan had a 65% chance of winning once it got to OT. And let's say Dickinson had a 20% chance of hitting that shot. By playing it out the way they did, Wisconsin gave Michigan a 13% chance of winning. Are the odds better if they foul?
 
J

JavaDunk18

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2011
1,102
1,014
0
Michigan was not losing in OT after that shot. All Wisconsin had to do was foul on the inbound.even 20% chance of hitting the shot is too much. odds of making first free throw, missing second & put back for tie would have been around 3%
 
K

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
One fun thing we can do is root for Northwestern to lock up a double bye so they have nothing to play for on Sunday.

For this to happen we need:

1. Illinois over Michigan
2. Indiana over Michigan
3. Northwestern over Penn State
4. Penn State over Maryland
5. Ohio State over Maryland
6. Indiana over Iowa

Not impossible but unlikely. Obviously us losing to Minnesota opens up a lot more paths to Northwestern getting the double-bye but that's not really the way I'd want them to do it.
 
G

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,095
7,154
113
kcg88 said:
One fun thing we can do is root for Northwestern to lock up a double bye so they have nothing to play for on Sunday.

For this to happen we need:

1. Illinois over Michigan
2. Indiana over Michigan
3. Northwestern over Penn State
4. Penn State over Maryland
5. Ohio State over Maryland
6. Indiana over Iowa

Not impossible but unlikely. Obviously us losing to Minnesota opens up a lot more paths to Northwestern getting the double-bye but that's not really the way I'd want them to do it.
Click to expand...
I do not see it that way. We want to end up in a pod with NW, Maryland and Indiana and get to 12 wins. We win all tiebreakers in that scenario and get a double bye and not sure if it is a 2,3 or 4.
We want Michigan to lose 2x , at Illinois and home to Indiana and Iowa to lose 1x (at Indiana) which is a decent 50/50 shot. We want Illinois to beat Michigan at home and lose to Purdue on the road. Again a decent shot
 
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D

DHajekRC84

Heisman
Aug 9, 2001
30,709
19,816
0
kcg88 said:
I mean let's say Michigan had a 65% chance of winning once it got to OT. And let's say Dickinson had a 20% chance of hitting that shot. By playing it out the way they did, Wisconsin gave Michigan a 13% chance of winning. Are the odds better if they foul?
Click to expand...
5-10% chance to make that shot.
 
D

DHajekRC84

Heisman
Aug 9, 2001
30,709
19,816
0
kcg88 said:
One fun thing we can do is root for Northwestern to lock up a double bye so they have nothing to play for on Sunday.

For this to happen we need:

1. Illinois over Michigan
2. Indiana over Michigan
3. Northwestern over Penn State
4. Penn State over Maryland
5. Ohio State over Maryland
6. Indiana over Iowa

Not impossible but unlikely. Obviously us losing to Minnesota opens up a lot more paths to Northwestern getting the double-bye but that's not really the way I'd want them to do it.
Click to expand...
I'd like NW coming in on an extended losing streak lacking confidence or over achieving early (sound familiar)..let their wheels come off. They don't scare me.
 
R

RutgersDom

All-American
Nov 18, 2003
5,963
7,396
113
fatsam98 said:
Use this site to play out the scenarios:

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
Click to expand...
This is an awesome site! I just did a bunch of scenarios and it really behooves us to win both games! With us winning both there are a lot of scenarios where we are the 3rd seed and keeps us from playing iowa, purdue, mich for a while...lose to NW and we are the 9 seed playing mich or someone else with purdue next using a bunch of scenarios with other games...
 
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M

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
51,271
0
go away goodbye GIF
 
M

motorb54

All-Conference
Dec 22, 2005
9,936
4,260
113
Wisconsin blowing the end game play hurts big time.
Michigan with another loss could help us greatly;
Hope they lose out and watch the tournament from home
 
N

new jersey1_rivals661559

All-Conference
Oct 22, 2005
2,383
2,274
0
goru7 said:
I do not see it that way. We want to end up in a pod with NW, Maryland and Indiana and get to 12 wins. We win all tiebreakers in that scenario and get a double bye and not sure if it is a 2,3 or 4.
We want Michigan to lose 2x , at Illinois and home to Indiana and Iowa to lose 1x (at Indiana) which is a decent 50/50 shot. We want Illinois to beat Michigan at home and lose to Purdue on the road. Again a decent shot
Click to expand...
If Indiana wins twice, they would finish ahead of us. Wondering what the result is if Michigan splits its two games by beating Indiana but losing to IL. Then we could be tied for 3rd in a pod with NW, MD and MI. And if MD beats OSU and PSU, both on the road, then we could be tied for 4th with NW and MI. Need to run these scenarios in the tiebreaker link.
 
Y

Yeah Baby

All-American
Aug 14, 2001
19,261
6,466
0
kcg88 said:
I mean let's say Michigan had a 65% chance of winning once it got to OT. And let's say Dickinson had a 20% chance of hitting that shot. By playing it out the way they did, Wisconsin gave Michigan a 13% chance of winning. Are the odds better if they foul?
Click to expand...
Yes Davis went for the ball and could have easily went for the body. In fact Dickinson sent him flying but that’s a different story. Davis could have went for the body and tangled up Dickinson and he is shooting 2 with less than 1.8 seconds. I give them a 1% chance of tying the game in that scenario.
 
F

FastMJ

All-American
Jan 6, 2007
33,764
6,343
68
Yeah Baby said:
Yes Davis went for the ball and could have easily went for the body. In fact Dickinson sent him flying but that’s a different story. Davis could have went for the body and tangled up Dickinson and he is shooting 2 with less than 1.8 seconds. I give them a 1% chance of tying the game in that scenario.
Click to expand...
But Dickinson could hit a 3 AND get fouled for a 4 point play and the win
 
M

motorb54

All-Conference
Dec 22, 2005
9,936
4,260
113
FastMJ said:
But Dickinson could hit a 3 AND get fouled for a 4 point play and the win
Click to expand...
No, you foul him on the catch. He would not in a position to shoot.
As it was, the defender took himself out of the play by going for the ball.
If he doesn't foul he needed to stay in front of Dickinson.
 
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S

Salvi's Headband

All-American
Oct 30, 2006
5,569
9,435
0
Awful possession there by Penn state not even getting a shot off with under a minute left.

NW ball now 39 seconds left
 
C

chiphi80

Senior
Nov 1, 2005
1,588
999
113
RutgersNo1 said:
TeamConference RecordOpponent #1Opponent #2
Michigan11-7@Illinois@Indiana
NW11-8@Rutgers
Maryland11-8@PSU
Indiana11-8Michigan
Iowa11-8Nebraska
Illinois10-8Michigan@Purdue
MSU10-8OSU
Rutgers10-8@MinnesotaNW


BIG TEN BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT TIEBREAKERS: https://btn.com/big-ten-basketball-tiebreakers/
Click to expand...
This site shows the remaining games and picks. You can change the picks, then click Calculate Seeds and it shows you the seeding and how the tie breakers work.

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
 
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