Big Ten Tournament Double-bye Watch
- Thread starter RutgersNo1
- Start date
It's perhaps the most likely scenario but it's less than 50/50.
This is a great situational "what-if" tool. Thanks for sharing!!!
That's not really true.
If Michigan wins out and Illinois beats Purdue we are 4th if we win out.
There are far more scenarios where we get a double bye than not (assuming we win out).
Use the site linked further up to play around with all the scenarios
The ideal bracket would have us as the #3 seed with Northwestern as the #6. Unfortunately that requires a sizeable upset (Nebraska over Iowa).
We had our chance at a double bye and then got blown out at home by Michigan after they spotted us a 10 point lead. That ship has sailed.
We still have something like a 38% chance at a double bye.
I agree. We should just give up believing in a thing with a solid chance of happening cause of one game.
To add if we win tonight it appears the winner of NW-Rutgers has about a 65% chance at a double bye.
Anything’s possible but I’m not really expecting Illinois to win @ Mackey on senior night to get to 12-8.
What happens if Michigan drops both road games @ Illinois and @ Indiana? Iowa gets the 2 on all tie breakers if they beat Nebraska. But Indiana and Maryland also lost to Iowa. I’d think that would be another realistic path. State can’t get to 12 wins with the Minny game cancelled.
I played around with as many different scenarios as I could using the below link, and if we win the next 2 games its very hard to find a scenario (I found one) where we don't get the double bye. Just win.
mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker
Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
I was playing around with a LOT of combinations. The worst outcome for our chances of getting a double bye seems to be Michigan wins tonight at Illinois and loses at Indiana. In many of those scenarios, we cap out at the #5 seed.
In almost every other combo I found, we get a double bye if Illinois wins tonight and loses to Purdue, or if Michigan wins twice. I think we also finish 5th at best if Illinois wins tonight and beats Purdue while Michigan beats Indiana.
So I am rooting for Illinois to win tonight and lose at Purdue on Sunday. If Michigan wins tonight, I want Michigan to beat Indiana on Sunday.
In almost every other combo I found, we get a double bye if Illinois wins tonight and loses to Purdue, or if Michigan wins twice. I think we also finish 5th at best if Illinois wins tonight and beats Purdue while Michigan beats Indiana.
So I am rooting for Illinois to win tonight and lose at Purdue on Sunday. If Michigan wins tonight, I want Michigan to beat Indiana on Sunday.
Have not checked the site of what ifs but if RU wins 2 and likely scenarios occur , Iowa beats Nebraska , Penn State beats Maryland at home ; Michigan loses at Illinois but beats Indiana and Illinois loses at Purdue , the only teams 12-8 are Iowa , Michigan and RU. Iowa the 2, Michigan the 3 and RU the 4. Those results have a decent chance at happening. If Michigan was to win twice at Illinois and at Indiana they would be 13-7 and Penn State beats Maryland then Iowa and RU are 12-8 alone as the 3 and 4 seeds. Again a decent chance.
One thing to consider about Purdue is that they have now clinched the one seed in conference whereas the two teams they play (Wisky and IL) are more desperate to make the tourney and B1G seeding, respectively. Granted Purdue has motivation to right their ship and get a 1 seed in the NCAA tourney. Might be a factor with the Purdue - Illinois game on Sunday.
Of course, the thing with these tiebreakers is that once one game result goes differently, then that likely changes who we need to win in another game(s).Which is pretty high considering that also accounts for us having to win our two games.
Fans always bring this up like it's a real thing. It's usually not unless the head coach sits starters.
Purdue still has a lot to play for..
This is not like the NFL playoffs where seed & site may already be determined..
plus they are looking to reverse a downtrend..
This is not like the NFL playoffs where seed & site may already be determined..
plus they are looking to reverse a downtrend..
The only way for Maryland to be ahead of us in a 1-4 tie breaker would be if both Michigan and Illinois are in the 12-8 pod too, right? At that point, unless Iowa also lost to Nebraska we’d have no chance at top 4 anyway.
For this reason - it seems the only way the Maryland game would really matter to us is if:
1) Nebraska would have to beat Iowa
2) Illinois wins out
3) Michigan wins @ Indiana
Odds of all 3 of these things happening seem very low.
For this reason - it seems the only way the Maryland game would really matter to us is if:
1) Nebraska would have to beat Iowa
2) Illinois wins out
3) Michigan wins @ Indiana
Odds of all 3 of these things happening seem very low.
The timing of Sunday's games will trickle in drama for ours.
Saturday night, MSU and Ohio State, zero impact on the double byes but will affect seeding for any team finishing 11-9.
Sunday:
Noon, Maryland at Penn State
1230, Illinois at Purdue
2 PM, Nebraska at Iowa
430, Michigan at Indiana
730, Wisconsin at Minnesota (pretty much meaningless for seeding for us)
730, Northwestern at Rutgers
Saturday night, MSU and Ohio State, zero impact on the double byes but will affect seeding for any team finishing 11-9.
Sunday:
Noon, Maryland at Penn State
1230, Illinois at Purdue
2 PM, Nebraska at Iowa
430, Michigan at Indiana
730, Wisconsin at Minnesota (pretty much meaningless for seeding for us)
730, Northwestern at Rutgers
Still matters for seeding for the Big Dance Weren’t they a 7 in some brackets. Would like to switch that.
I guess. And we beat PSU twice so rooting for them to make the field now for sure.
I'm surprised we are clear favorites over Northwestern, but let's go 2-0 this week. Nearly 40% chance of getting the coveted double-bye.
Maryland’s terrible road record (especially if they lose to PSU) will undoubtedly affect their seeding.
Granted they have motivation to win - reversing their downtrend for sure. I suppose the question is did they peak last month and have they now hit the wall with their all freshman backcourt. We shall see.
I dunno, this guy with 4 posts says the ship has sailed.
Don’t quit your day job if you have one.
Higher than 40%. Because if we win both that means Northwestern and their 28% chance are moot.
We are the last game of the Big Ten regular season Sunday night. We will know exactly where a win puts us and where a loss puts us