The committee doesn’t care about conferences. They’re looking at overall resume. So yeah, it counts the same as a conference win does. Same as wins vs Missouri don’t count as much the win vs Southern Miss did.
Btw: RPI for Missouri games
- Thread starter HuntDawg
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Interesting. But that won’t probably matter. If the committee thinks they deserve to host and they can find an alternate stadium, they’ll host. I don’t think their record & strength of schedule will be enough though.
I think as long as we’re in the top 20 RPI, we’ve got a real good chance to host. We’re currently 19.
NC State won the series against Wake, I think they are hosting now. But Wake is potentially playing for their host spot tomorrow. A loss would drop them to 15-15 in the ACC and I don’t think that would host, even with their RPI.
yeah we should be pulling for nc state tmw.
I’ve heard the magic number for us rpi wise is 18. Not sure if it’s valid. Just heard a number of people mention it in the media and such
ucsb with an rpi of 12 won’t get passed up for a host. We need that rpi to drop
I still stand by my group of 12 being in:
2 of duke, nc state, wake makes 14
East carolina- 15 but on the edge
the odd man out above
Uscb
Okie state
Us
Those 4 for the 1 spot is the way I see it. Might be able to add east Carolina into that mix and say 2 of those 5 for the last two.
I don’t think our resume is better than the 14 above.
UCSB’s issue is they have three games against #271 UC Riverside next week. At home too. That won’t do them any favors win or lose.
Oregon State locked up their host spot tonight, if there was still any doubt.
ECU has no more regular season games. I think they are probably in.
Tomorrow is a huge day for us, Duke, Wake Forest, and Oklahoma State (they play a DH tomorrow).
If there has ever been an 18-win, Top 20 RPI SEC team that hasn’t hosted, I’d sure like to know when it was. I think we’re a lock with a W today.
Well, we didn’t host with 18 SEC wins in 2014. Don’t know about RPI, but polls had us ranked 21, 17, 21 & 22 at end of regular season. It will be close. I think we need to win Tuesday to be sure.
I think we were 24-ish in 2014. Scheduling totally screwed us that year.
Has anyone ever heard why baseball selection has not switched from RPI to NET rankings like men’s and women’s college basketball?
The RPI formula looks like something a professor would come up with on a bar napkin on a Friday night at Dave’s back before it was Dave’s back in the 80s.
Why continue to use/emphasize a metric that data analysts already determined was flawed and is so easily manipulated?
The RPI formula looks like something a professor would come up with on a bar napkin on a Friday night at Dave’s back before it was Dave’s back in the 80s.
Why continue to use/emphasize a metric that data analysts already determined was flawed and is so easily manipulated?
I think people just don’t care enough bc it doesn’t make the money the basketball tourney does. But I also wouldn’t want to see a metric that values margin of victory in baseball. That would be dumb. You may be down 8-0 in the 6th and want to throw your back end guys bc you know winning isn’t probably.
I understand, but margin of victory data matters in assessing a teams strength. It just does.
More I think about it, more I think a win and we host. It gives us 18 wins which is huge. And I think the rpi will be close enough to where the 18 wins in the toughest conference will be the trump card that gets us in. My only reservation is that after today we could still be the 8th best team rpi wise in the conference and will for sure be the 7th best team
2 of 3- duke, nc state, wake will host
and we will get the final spot over:
UCSB- there rpi will drop next week and I don’t see them hosting over us
the 3rd team out from the acc. The only one whose rpi can be significantly better than ours is wake, and they could be 15-15 after today. If they win today I think it bumps either nc State or duke out
And I don’t see them rewarding Oklahoma state over us.
Plus the memo the committee sent out about not canceling to save rpi tells me they are not going to go straight by the rpi this year.
now a loss puts us back on the bubble and likely the wrong side of it
2 of 3- duke, nc state, wake will host
and we will get the final spot over:
UCSB- there rpi will drop next week and I don’t see them hosting over us
the 3rd team out from the acc. The only one whose rpi can be significantly better than ours is wake, and they could be 15-15 after today. If they win today I think it bumps either nc State or duke out
And I don’t see them rewarding Oklahoma state over us.
Plus the memo the committee sent out about not canceling to save rpi tells me they are not going to go straight by the rpi this year.
now a loss puts us back on the bubble and likely the wrong side of it
Think I agree. If I’m Lemonis & Selmon, the message I’m making sure the committee gets is we’re one of only 9 teams with 10+ Q1 wins and a winning Q1 record. We should host.
So today's game is really big. No doubt
I checked on that WF-NC State game in the 9th when I saw they were in a 1-1 duel. Wake proceeded to walk 4 of 5 batters to walk in the winning run in the top of the 9th
In case anyone thinks our bullpen struggles are unique among good teams..
Yeah worst case scenario is wake win and duke win todsy
would make duke, nc state, wake, along with us 4 very deserving host spots and 2 are going to be left out… if duke or wake lose, I don’t see how they host
Oklahoma state and ucsb only come into the discussion with a little chaos
We were not in the Top 20. And we had a worse non conference schedule than we did this year…..and lost TWICE to f-ing Holy Cross, who was far worse than any team that’s beaten us this year.
Agree to disagree. It’s baseball. I think it would be an awful data point.
I think the winner of WF/NCSU today hosts and the other is out. Ok State is at Houston with a sub 100 rpi, they can’t afford to lose that series.
Might be the case. Wake can’t lose and host. Nc state will still have a very strong resume even with the loss, considering they’ve already won the series… and they have the acc tournament to bolster the rpi back up a few points.
Yes Oklahoma state has to sweep. That’s their calling card. 20 wins in the big 12 and an rpi inside the top 16. Not sure that’s been left out of a hosting spot ever either
Just noticed MStM is on a 13-3 run that has them inching up in RPI and maybe helping us microscopically.
Also, a win over North Al today wins the ASun for Austin Peay.
Also, a win over North Al today wins the ASun for Austin Peay.
NC State’s problem is they can only have a max of 32 wins. They also had a rainout against Winthrop which would have been another big RPI hit, had they played. I don’t think they are a shoe-in even with a W today, but do agree that Wake is definitely out with a loss.
Nah….our wins are legit as anyone’s. 12 Quad 1 wins. That’s more than Wake, NCSU, Oklahoma, Ok State, UCSB, and East Carolina. That’s the entire bubble.
Agree but they have series’s wins against duke, Clemson, North Carolina and Virginia. They have the 5th toughest sos in the country and 17 acc wins including a rain out.
a win today they are more of a lock than we are. With a loss their resume is hard to ignore as well. Their only negative is 32 wins. But they’ve lost 3 games to rain outs
Yeah that’s what I mean by digging in. Thats the way we want them to see it. And not 14 wins against teams 4-5 games under .500 in the conference.
I get not using MoV in baseball. Surely there is a better metric than RPI though. With all the statistics for baseball and advances in data analytics since the early 80s when the RPI was introduced, you would think a better model could be developed to assist picking teams. Or at least don’t weigh RPI in the selection process as much.
Quad 1 wins will help. We’ve also had the worst losses of anyone in the bubble as well.
it cuts both ways.
Guess that’s why it’s an interesting bubble.
does a wake team with an rpi of 10-11 get left out? What about a 18 win nc state? Or a 20
Win Oklahoma state team.
no one including our resume is bullet proof. We are heavily reliant on our sec wins. I think that’s the biggest trump card, but committee may not.
This is true and I didn’t look at it that way. We’ve only played 3 teams with a record above 500 in conference play…. Yikes
and as someone else pointed out our series’s wins against Alabama and Vanderbilt aren’t looking real good right now
And at some point they are going to start looking at how just being in the SEC really elevates you. I hope they don’t but that’s the question id ask. “How do we have a metric that has Alabama 17 and OM 27 right now?” There have to be ways to devalue these terrible OOC home wins even more than the .7/1.3 adjustment.
Currently North Carolina is drilling duke. Likely making the bubble picture a little cleaner.
think a loss will make it tough for duke to host
think a loss will make it tough for duke to host
Exactly.
Is the 6th best sec team worth a host spot over the 2nd best big 12 team with 20 conference wins
2 things the committee caught hell over last year:
1) all the sec hosts
2) weighing rpi too heavily
we’ll see how or if that changes this year.
It kinda is what it is. There are only 5 teams who aren't us above .500 in conference. We all know we got the good fortune of playing Auburn and Mizzou and avoiding Tennessee and Kentucky.
We did what a host worthy team is supposed to do in our tough series vs Arky, A&M and Georgia.
We shall see.
I'm rooting for your run rule today...
Edited, I'm getting tired of autocorrect
There are precedents that have been set. Getting to host with a .500 conference record is so rare that’s its 99% not going to happen, and if it does you better have a Top 5 RPI and you better dominate your nonconference slate. Won’t happen for Wake.
A Top 20 RPI team from the SEC with 18 conference wins….pretty sure the combo of those 2 things has never not been awarded a host site. If its ever happened, its too rare to consider it being anything close to a even a dart throw of it happening.
A 31-32 win team hosting….again that’s another 1%-er, if its ever happened.
All 3 of those things happening at the same time? No chance.
Finally, you have geography. In that contiguous area of Middle / East Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, southern / cental Arkansas, there’s only one host worthy team.
Does it matter that the last 4 national champs have come from that region?????
