Btw: RPI for Missouri games

HuntDawg

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There are precedents that have been set. Getting to host with a .500 conference record is so rare that’s its 99% not going to happen, and if it does you better have a Top 5 RPI and you better dominate your nonconference slate. Won’t happen for Wake.

A Top 20 RPI team from the SEC with 18 conference wins….pretty sure the combo of those 2 things has never not been awarded a host site. If its ever happened, its too rare to consider it being anything close to a even a dart throw of it happening.

A 31-32 win team hosting….again that’s another 1%-er, if its ever happened.

All 3 of those things happening at the same time? No chance.

Finally, you have geography. In that contiguous area of Middle / East Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, southern / cental Arkansas, there’s only one host worthy team.
Season isn’t over at 32 wins. They have the acc tourney.

precedence as also been set in the big 12. No 20 win team with an rpi inside 20 hasn’t hosted either.

again plenty of ways. I think we host with a win too. But leaning on precedent when things are this close isn’t what I would rely on. Seems like there is going be at least 1 thing that has never happened or has rarely happened that is going to happen this year
 

She Mate Me

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Geography won’t matter. They’ll make sure there is a host out west, and there is a deserving one. That’s it.

If geography doesn't matter, why would they make sure there's a host out west (assuming there wasn't a deserving one)??
 

HuntDawg

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If geography doesn't matter, why would they make sure there's a host out west (assuming there wasn't a deserving one)??
Geography matters to the point there is one needed out there. But the one out there doesn’t have to be in Oregon. Just somewhere out there.

we have enough regional in the region. Tenn, Georgia, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, then all the Carolina’s

that the geography is covered. They aren’t going to put one in Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana if one isn’t deserved.

very much like Arizona isn’t technically out west. It’s far enough that way where it suffices. Although all those above aren’t exactly in Mississippi or Louisiana. It’s close enough to check the box
 

HuntDawg

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Hard for nc state to be left out.

committee will have a big decision to make on wake. I think they are out as of now, be interesting to know if they do well in the tourney how that effects things. Could they end up with a top 10 RPI and not host?//
 

HuntDawg

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Update for me;

locks
1. Tenn
2. Ark
3. Txam
4. Kentucky
5. Georgia
6. Unc
7. FSU
8. Indiana state
9. Clemson
10. Virginia
11. Oklahoma
12. Oregon state

cant see how they are not:
13. Ecu
14. Nc state

becomes a lock with 2 wins today:
15. Oklahoma state- 20 wins and a RPI in the top 15. They are in Now due to chaos.

fighitng for last spot:
us, ucsb, Duke, wake

unfortunately for us we are probably 3rd on that list of fighting.

we’ll need 2 wins in Hoover now.
 

HuntDawg

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Our RPI is now 23.

there is no way you can justify us over duke or Oklahoma state at this point. And you’d be hard pressed to have us in over wake. We are on the wrong side of the bubble without question.
 

patdog

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Our RPI is now 23.

there is no way you can justify us over duke or Oklahoma state at this point. And you’d be hard pressed to have us in over wake. We are on the wrong side of the bubble without question.
As of now, we’re outside the bubble. It would take a pretty deep run in the SECT to get back on the bubble. And this team isn’t built for more than 2-3 meaningful games per week. The only question is which host site will we be sent to.
 

MSUDC11-2.0

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I think we goofed it up today barring a run in Hoover. Tuesday is definitely must win for any hosting chances. And then might need a win against either A&M or Tennessee after that depending on how some others do.

If they seeded it today, no, I do not think we host. But the door is not totally shut yet. Hoover, as I feared, is now crucial.
 
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HuntDawg

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Like you guys said. Playing ole miss game 1 even with a win isn’t going to move the needle that much

We will not only need wins but help. Lots of help.
 
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8dog

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Like you guys said. Playing ole miss game 1 even with a win isn’t going to move the needle that much

We will not only need wins but help. Lots of help.
I’d hope Auger is starting Tuesday since we brought him yesterday like we did. A win gives a shot at the number 1 RPI team in the country. Gotta throw Khal if we get to Wednesday.
 
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MSUDC11-2.0

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If you made me call it today I think we are headed toward the 2 seed in Stillwater barring a very successful Hoover trip.
 

patdog

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I’d hope Auger is starting Tuesday since we brought him yesterday like we did. A win gives a shot at the number 1 RPI team in the country. Gotta throw Khal if we get to Wednesday.
Interesting. I'd wondered who would start Tuesday. First thought was Stephen. And if we'd won today, I'd stay with that to get the one win that would clinch a regional host. But with us needing at least 2, and probably 3 wins, I think you're right. Start Auger and take our chances. Worst case, we lose and are a 2 seed. Best case, we win, and have a fighting chance to salvage a regional host. Maybe start Karson Ligon instead of Auger. Doesn't matter, either way they both need to pitch Tuesday to hopefully give us a slim chance.
 

patdog

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Yes 2 seed in a non national seed regional.

Oklahoma state or nc state would be my guess
Could be anywhere. I think we're more in the Wake, NC State, Oregon St. or Virginia range though. Best case might be the Indiana St. regional.
 

DawgieDust

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Wonder why Lemonis put a seldom used freshman center fielder into a 2-2 game with hosting on the line. He had like 7 at bats the whole year before this game. It couldn't have been defense or experience. Or his offense for he's hitting .125

Bad decision, maybe he thought it was a fall game and wanted everyone to play.
 
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8dog

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Interesting. I'd wondered who would start Tuesday. First thought was Stephen. And if we'd won today, I'd stay with that to get the one win that would clinch a regional host. But with us needing at least 2, and probably 3 wins, I think you're right. Start Auger and take our chances. Worst case, we lose and are a 2 seed. Best case, we win, and have a fighting chance to salvage a regional host. Maybe start Karson Ligon instead of Auger. Doesn't matter, either way they both need to pitch Tuesday to hopefully give us a slim chance.
If it’s not Auger you have to wonder why in the world we put him in yesterday up 7-2. I am assuming that was his pen day.
 
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MSUDC11-2.0

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Could be anywhere. I think we're more in the Wake, NC State, Oregon St. or Virginia range though. Best case might be the Indiana St. regional.
The reason I think we maybe don’t end up in the Carolinas is SC and Vandy seem like more natural fits to be sent that way.

You mention the West Coast though and yeah, it would not shock me at all if we got shipped to Corvallis or Santa Barbara. That could totally happen. LSU and A&M have gotten shipped out west recently, we could be next.
 
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pseudonym

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NC State could just take Wake's host. Tied for 8th in your league is not a lock to host.
 

patdog

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The reason I think we maybe don’t end up in the Carolinas is SC and Vandy seem like more natural fits to be sent that way.

You mention the West Coast though and yeah, it would not shock me at all if we got shipped to Corvallis or Santa Barbara. That could totally happen. LSU and A&M have gotten shipped out west recently, we could be next.
Both soccer & softball got sent to Stanford this year. Santa Barbara would be great. That or Indians St are probably the 2 regionals I’d straight up pick us to win. I know they’ve both got great records, but those two just don’t measure up to the rest of the hosts.
 

MSUDC11-2.0

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NC State could just take Wake's host. Tied for 8th in your league is not a lock to host.

NC State has locked in their host spot and I think Wake is out for now, but could get back in with a strong ACC tourney.

I think it’s five teams for two spots and we are one of the five along with Wake, Duke, UCSB, and OK State. As of today, those spots would likely go to UCSB and OK State. But it’s a fluid situation.
 

HuntDawg

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NC State has locked in their host spot and I think Wake is out for now, but could get back in with a strong ACC tourney.

I think it’s five teams for two spots and we are one of the five along with Wake, Duke, UCSB, and OK State. As of today, those spots would likely go to UCSB and OK State. But it’s a fluid situation.
I don’t see how okie state misses out. 19-9 and a top 16 rpi. 37-16.

but yes I’d be ok saying 2 of those 5. I think we are 4th in line for the spot, only ahead of wake. I think if wake wins 2, they’ll be ahead of us
 

MSUDC11-2.0

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I don’t see how okie state misses out. 19-9 and a top 16 rpi. 37-16.

but yes I’d be ok saying 2 of those 5. I think we are 4th in line for the spot, only ahead of wake. I think if wake wins 2, they’ll be ahead of us
OK State not hosting would probably require them to lose to Houston tomorrow and have a poor Big 12 tourney showing.

I think Santa Barbara hosts if they sweep next weekend, which they should against terrible Riverside team. But if they drop a game it could get hairy for them.

I think those two are in positions of strength right now and State/Wake/Duke are gonna have to really have good weeks next week to take one of their spots.

Wake’s problem is their ACC record. Duke’s problem is nonconference schedule and them losing their last three series. Our problem is we have too many 17’ing Q5 losses. 5 of those kind of losses is inexcusable.
 

MSUDC11-2.0

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And the thing that concerns me about making a run in Hoover is I do not like the side of the bracket we are on. A&M and Tennessee are arguably the two national championship favorites this year. I think we can beat Ole Miss and probably do, but it may be tough sledding after that. Vandy/Florida is the 8 vs 9 game so we could see one of them and really need a win.
 

pseudonym

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And the thing that concerns me about making a run in Hoover is I do not like the side of the bracket we are on. A&M and Tennessee are arguably the two national championship favorites this year.
The question is how much effort those teams bring to Hoover. There seems to always be a top team that plays like their minds are thinking beyond Hoover. We played that role in 2021.
 

MSUDC11-2.0

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The question is how much effort those teams bring to Hoover. There seems to always be a top team that plays like their minds are thinking beyond Hoover. We played that role in 2021.
Yes the hope is UT and A&M phone it in with their Top 8 seeds already wrapped up
 

MSUDC11-2.0

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After some further thought, I’m less convinced East Carolina is a lock just yet. They play in a terrible league and I don’t think they can afford to have a bad showing in their conference tourney. Definitely want to root for chaos in the American this week, too.
 

patdog

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After some further thought, I’m less convinced East Carolina is a lock just yet. They play in a terrible league and I don’t think they can afford to have a bad showing in their conference tourney. Definitely want to root for chaos in the American this week, too.
I don't think ECU will get much hosting consideration. They're only 8-9 in Q1 & Q2 games, and RPI is only 16.
 

HuntDawg

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They'll get it.

40 wins. They went out and played the 2nd toughest NCC in the country.

They won a series against Carolina, swept NC State.

If they make it to their conference tourney finals they are a lock no doubt.. even now someone is going to have to do well in the tournament to take their hosting spot... and just not a lot of teams in the situation to do that.

Winning your conference handily, winning 40 games, having an RPI in the top 16, and going out and playing the best they can play outside of who they are made to play in their conference.... is going to get rewarded.
 

MSUDC11-2.0

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I don't think ECU will get much hosting consideration. They're only 8-9 in Q1 & Q2 games, and RPI is only 16.
I disagree. If they win their conference and conference tourney they probably host. That would put them at 44 wins and a Top 16-20 RPI, plus winning their league and league tourney. They also went 4-1 against UNC and NC State which I think helps them a lot.
 

MSUDC11-2.0

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They'll get it.

40 wins in all likelyhood. They went out and played the 2nd toughest NCC in the country.

They won a series against Carolina, swept NC State.

If they make it to their conference tourney finals they are a lock no doubt.. even now someone is going to have to do well in the tournament to take their hosting spot... and just not a lot of teams in the situation to do that.

Winning your conference handily, winning 40 games, having an RPI in the top 16, and going out and playing the best they can play outside of who they are made to play in their conference.... is going to get rewarded.
I think the part where it could get iffy is if they were to stumble early in their league tourney.
 

HuntDawg

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I think the part where it could get iffy is if they were to stumble early in their league tourney.
its the old school SEC tournament schedule. its double elimination.

These are considered neutral site games. Even if they go 2-2. They'll be 42-15. And due to it being neutral site none of their losses are going to be considered bad losses.

0-2 would probably put them out. Anything other than that is going to have them on the right side of the bubble unless some bubble teamas really make hard pushes

I mean there just is no way you could take a Duke or Mississippi State over ECU to host. They won 40 games and played a tougher schedule than Oregon State.

I mean they committee is smart enough to realize that some of these bigger schools are just riding the wave of the bigger school. a 40 win team that did was ECU did, played that tough schedule, basically did everything the committee asked and wants in terms of scheduling....is going to be rewarded
 

patdog

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its the old school SEC tournament schedule. its double elimination.

These are considered neutral site games. Even if they go 2-2. They'll be 42-15. And due to it being neutral site none of their losses are going to be considered bad losses.

0-2 would probably put them out. Anything other than that is going to have them on the right side of the bubble unless some bubble teamas really make hard pushes

I mean there just is no way you could take a Duke or Mississippi State over ECU to host. They won 40 games and played a tougher schedule than Oregon State.
If they lose 2 in their tournament, it'll be 2 pretty bad losses. 2nd best team is #96 RPI Tulane. But I see the point of rewarding them for a tough OOC schedule. Two other pretty high RPI teams I think are in trouble are UCSB and Wake Forest. UCSB schedule is garbage, both in and out of conference. And it'll get worse this weekend. Wake has a good RPI but only 7-13 in Q1 games. That's by far the worst of any of the projected hosts.
 

HuntDawg

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If they lose 2 in their tournament, it'll be 2 pretty bad losses. 2nd best team is #96 RPI Tulane. But I see the point of rewarding them for a tough OOC schedule. Two other pretty high RPI teams I think are in trouble are UCSB and Wake Forest. UCSB schedule is garbage, both in and out of conference. And it'll get worse this weekend. Wake has a good RPI but only 7-13 in Q1 games. That's by far the worst of any of the projected hosts.
Being neutral site games though i believe after rice.. every other game they play will be a quad 3 game. Which isnt going to hurt their schedule.. it'll actually help it..

But i agree they go 0-2, they are screwed.

But 2-2 vs Quad 3... isnt going to be a deal breaker for them when they've done as much as they've done... doesnt mean they are a for sure lock.. but someone like Duke or Us will have to make a deep run to take their spot

Agreed.. USCB will be an interesting tackle for the committee. Top 10 RPI. Even though its not a real impressive resume. Same with Wake... but i think if wake wins their pod, because that will include beating UNC.. they'll be a host.
 
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MSUDC11-2.0

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Being neutral site games though i believe after rice.. every other game they play will be a quad 3 game. Which isnt going to hurt their schedule.. it'll actually help it..

But i agree they go 0-2, they are screwed.

But 2-2 vs Quad 3... isnt going to be a deal breaker for them when they've done as much as they've done... doesnt mean they are a for sure lock.. but someone like Duke or Us will have to make a deep run to take their spot

Agreed.. USCB will be an interesting tackle for the committee. Top 10 RPI. Even though its not a real impressive resume. Same with Wake... but i think if wake wins their pod, because that will include beating UNC.. they'll be a host.
UCSB has a home series against a terrible Riverside team this weekend. It may be as simple as sweep = host, no sweep = no host
 

MSUDC11-2.0

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The other thing to consider with West Coast RPI/SOS is that scheduling well is much tougher out West than it is in the SEC/ACC/Big 12 footprint. They usually get a little bit more benefit of the doubt on RPI because of that. It’s a situation where good West Coast teams suffer because they aren’t in close proximity to anyone else who gives two ***** about college baseball.
 

HuntDawg

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UCSB has a home series against a terrible Riverside team this weekend. It may be as simple as sweep = host, no sweep = no host
Kinda what I think as well. They certainly cant afford to lose. Their biggest trump card is being 42-12 and 26-4 in conference.
 

HuntDawg

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The other thing to consider with West Coast RPI/SOS is that scheduling well is much tougher out West than it is in the SEC/ACC/Big 12 footprint. They usually get a little bit more benefit of the doubt on RPI because of that. It’s a situation where good West Coast teams suffer because they aren’t in close proximity to anyone else who gives two ***** about college baseball.
And thats the only regional where I think location bias comes into place. They will make sure there is a regional out there.. and i could see why they'd want two out there as well.
 

8dog

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Maybe relevant. Auburn went into last years sect 14 RPI. Went 1-2 and finished 19 when hosts were announced.
 

HuntDawg

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Maybe relevant. Auburn went into last years sect 14 RPI. Went 1-2 and finished 19 when hosts were announced.
agree there as well.

Im sure there are a lot of wheels spinning behind the scenes.. and there are probably some things settled well before the conference tournaments.

Im not sure how hard it is to set up a regional and get crews at every location.. but would make sense that there is a large portion of those host sites decided before the conference tournaments end... and perhaps the seeding changes a little on who slides up or down... but the hosts spots are setttled.

Which is another reason why.. I dont think we host.