current events thread

Uncoach

Well-known member
Dec 8, 2011
6,095
8,322
113
I was 100% right on this issue and you were 100% wrong. I started arguing in late 2023 that crime was in fact declining, and this argument continued throughout 2024 (due to the election). Somehow we are still arguing in 2025, despite the fact that Trump won.

It is fully established by every bit of data that crime dropped in 2023, plummeted in 2024, and is dropping EVEN MORE in 2025. I have no idea why you want to argue this. It's not just the FBI. I can cite you to conservative commentators (Charles Fain Lehman of the Manhattan Insitute for one) who will tell you the same thing I have.

If you want to argue that Trump is doing a great job deporting immigrants who commit crime ... I have no reason to dispute it. However, such immigrants never drove national crime rates, as the large majority of crimes are committed by native born Americans. If you want to argue that crime rose dramatically from 2020-22, that's correct and stipulated. However, it started falling as we departed the Covid era. If you want to argue that Trump's crime policies are better than Biden's, I 100% agree with you. If you want to argue that Trump should federalize DC law enforcement because crime rates there are too high, it's a perfectly plausible argument (although I think using the Guard is for show and unnecessary, as there are plenty of actual LE resources that can be deployed in DC).

But what you have been arguing is that "Dtrain is wrong when he says crime is going down." And that's completely incorrect. It's not even remotely arguable. Crime has been going down for well over 2 years now, and has been going down DRAMATICALLY. Murders are going to be down like 40% from 2022 this year (maybe close to 50%), violent crime is at 50 year lows, and property crime might be the lowest ever. @Uncoach's response to my commentary on Chicago was something on the order of "sure, it's going down from absurd highs in 2022 but that's just because it spiked so high." My dude Uncoach, Chicago homicides are going to be at their lowest since 1965 this year. I wasn't alive then, you may have been but it's close. 1965.

These might be inconvenient facts to you, but they remain facts. I continue to ask for anything rebutting them, and you offer nothing but yarns about your son (which also have stopped, probably because crime is down pretty bigly in NYC right now). It's OK that I was right, and the two of you were wrong. I get it ... real time data is not easy to track (but I found it and was tracking it).

Next year, Trump is going to be taking victory laps about historic crime lows. Enjoy them!
Homocides aren’t the only violent crime. Crime is going down as a whole. I literally posted an article from an independent research team that wants to know why Chicago’s violent crime (which includes more than homocides) has not fallen at the same rate as other cities in the US. Either Chicago has a problem other municipalities don’t have or other municipalities are misclassifying crimes like DC, which makes honest Chicago look worse than it is. Stats have issues. DC is part of those stats. DC has been caught misclassifying to lesser crimes, so including DC in violent crime rates corrupts the data.
 

dtrain79

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2006
48,200
26,657
113
Homocides aren’t the only violent crime. Crime is going down as a whole. I literally posted an article from an independent research team that wants to know why Chicago’s violent crime (which includes more than homocides) has not fallen at the same rate as other cities in the US. Either Chicago has a problem other municipalities don’t have or other municipalities are misclassifying crimes like DC, which makes honest Chicago look worse than it is. Stats have issues. DC is part of those stats. DC has been caught misclassifying to lesser crimes, so including DC in violent crime rates corrupts the data.

There are like tens of thousands of reporting entities.

Crimes other than homicide don’t rise and fall as fast as homicide. Compare the murder graph with the violent crime graph on the real time data (it lags a few months to actually compile the numbers).


Separately if you want to track crime in Chicago, here’s the site. Every type of major crime is down this year, quite a few substantially down.

 

dtrain79

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2006
48,200
26,657
113
There are like tens of thousands of reporting entities.

Crimes other than homicide don’t rise and fall as fast as homicide. Compare the murder graph with the violent crime graph on the real time data (it lags a few months to actually compile the numbers).


Separately if you want to track crime in Chicago, here’s the site. Every type of major crime is down this year, quite a few substantially down.


Separately I’m not a Chicago guy (never lived there) but finally it seems like the crime numbers are starting to mirror falls elsewhere.

Brandon Johnson is terrible btw. The crime drop might be somewhat about policing but it’s mostly above societal sanity returning post Covid. Lots of favorable data on personal welfare right now, after much of it cratered in 2020-2023.
 

dtrain79

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2006
48,200
26,657
113
I agree with every word of the article @Uncoach cited from Wirepoints. I think the main point is that Chicago is benefitting from trends, not actual decisions from leadership.

Hard to argue with that.
 

stoneaxe27

Well-known member
Sep 22, 2006
5,609
6,609
113
I agree with every word of the article @Uncoach cited from Wirepoints. I think the main point is that Chicago is benefitting from trends, not actual decisions from leadership.

Hard to argue with that.
I believe the history of crime in the US is always the result of National trends. When crime fell in NY during Giuliani's time he got much credit, but the National trend was similar, even Chicago which did not follow any of NY's policies. I heard from NYers when de Blasio was elected that crime would skyrocket and the city revert back to pre-Giuliani days. Of course it did not, crime continued to drop as it did nationwide. Covid increased crime nationwide, it has nothing to do with policing. Now crime is dropping nationwide, it has nothing to do with policing or any specific city.
 

dtrain79

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2006
48,200
26,657
113
" I think "

Crime under Rudy G dropped at a level far outpacing national trends (which were also good). His policies were very successful, and were often modeled elsewhere, aiding some of the decreases in other jurisdictions.

It's silly for anyone argue Rudy wasn't excellent on crime. He might be the best pol in my lifetime on the issue.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ILisBest

bucshon

Active member
Staff member
May 10, 2017
486
380
63
Honestly, I don't see the point in arguing whether or not the crime rate is dropping overall. Its only relevant to those interested in gaining political points for their side.

What's relevant is that its far too high in urban America, and has been for a very long time.

The murder rate in Naperville, Illinois is 0.66 per 100k. In Chicago it is 17.47.

Robbery in Naperville 15.28 in Chicago 335.25.

Come talk to me when they are the same.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Uncoach

BigWill

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2001
52,137
30,971
113
Big Will, my post had basically nothing to do with Trump, but you deflected with a non-substantive response about Trump.

Also, what does it say when I say something like "I'm 75% in agreement with Trump" and your response is TDS? Is your brain that feeble?

I will await the numbers disputing my claim. From anyone. Anywhere.
5 mentions of Trump and it's not TDS 3.0 !
 

ILisBest

Well-known member
Jun 16, 2007
7,001
4,567
113
Yep, the whole issue can be settled by screening people for the spike proteins and potential residual virus infection simultaneously. I'm afraid what we'll see is that for a number of people, the supposedly temporary production of the protein in shoulder muscle tissue "escaped" and persists in various organs in the body. I think it's especially bad in the heart because the cellular replacement rate is very slow, so slow that for a long time it was believed they were never replaced.
Does the J&J carry the same concern?
 

Semi-elite R2R athlete

Well-known member
Sep 13, 2008
3,815
9,022
113
Yep, the whole issue can be settled by screening people for the spike proteins and potential residual virus infection simultaneously. I'm afraid what we'll see is that for a number of people, the supposedly temporary production of the protein in shoulder muscle tissue "escaped" and persists in various organs in the body. I think it's especially bad in the heart because the cellular replacement rate is very slow, so slow that for a long time it was believed they were never replaced.
Incorrect administration likely exacerbated this issue.
 

dtrain79

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2006
48,200
26,657
113
Honestly, I don't see the point in arguing whether or not the crime rate is dropping overall. Its only relevant to those interested in gaining political points for their side.

What's relevant is that its far too high in urban America, and has been for a very long time.

The murder rate in Naperville, Illinois is 0.66 per 100k. In Chicago it is 17.47.

Robbery in Naperville 15.28 in Chicago 335.25.

Come talk to me when they are the same.

This is a great soapbox point, but ignoring the fact that the large part of the difference in these rates is behavioral renders your point more theoretical than practical.

Over long periods of time, positive improvements can be made. Good crime policy helps. We should push more of it.

Btw, some of the recent improvement is policy. The recession of police retreat post Floyd is part of the reason for improvement. Not all, much is simply tied up in Covid insanity fading away.
 

djpc

Well-known member
Nov 2, 2001
15,813
6,832
93
I believe that 80% of SS benefit is taxable as income. I also believe that the $6,000 ($12,000 couple) deduction is off of any income not just SS income, but that it decreases as you AGI increases, eventually down to a zero deduction at about $170,000.
I suspected that much, what I'm not familiar with is all the rules governing how much of SS is taxable. I'd always thought that 85% was the maximum portion of SS that could be taxed. I hope you're right it's really 80%. What's not clear to me is the specifics of what income figure (AGI? MAGI? total taxable income?) is used to determine how much of SS is taxed, and how the $6000/$12000 is classified. That is, if it's a deduction it does not lower AGI, but does lower total taxable income. To me it doesn't much matter. I won't turn 65 until after the "over 65" deduction expires. If the Dems win the legislature in 26 then it probably won't be extended nor will any bill to make SS nontaxable make it though. That's why I've not more thoroughly educated myself on the details.
 

djpc

Well-known member
Nov 2, 2001
15,813
6,832
93
Incorrect administration likely exacerbated this issue.
If by that you mean not doing a good job sticking the needle in the right place and/or not verifying it wasn't stuck in a blood vessel instead of in muscle fiber, then yes, that's probably correct. I think a lot of people were pressed into service giving the injections who didn't have a lot of hands on experience giving injections.
 

djpc

Well-known member
Nov 2, 2001
15,813
6,832
93
Does the J&J carry the same concern?
My understanding is that what Semi-elite said. JJ I think had its own problems, but it wasn't an mRNA-based injection. The issue with it was it seemed in some instances to cause blood clotting issues (thrombosis with thrombocytopenia per an AI response to a Google search). I remember hearing stories of undertakers finding gloppy blood in individuals while they were embalming at orders of magnitude higher rates than they were used to seeing. At the time it wasn't clear whether that was an effect of covid-19 itself, or something else (like the JJ vaccine). I'm sure there was some reason the JJ vaccine was pulled. I have no idea if that partly clotted blood is still a more frequent observation than it was pre-pandemic, or more specifically whether there is any suspected potential latent risk for people who had the JJ shot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ILisBest

Semi-elite R2R athlete

Well-known member
Sep 13, 2008
3,815
9,022
113
If by that you mean not doing a good job sticking the needle in the right place and/or not verifying it wasn't stuck in a blood vessel instead of in muscle fiber, then yes, that's probably correct. I think a lot of people were pressed into service giving the injections who didn't have a lot of hands on experience giving injections.
Exactly. The mRNA vaccines were supposed to be aspirated when administered. There were emergency policies in place that allowed administration by healthcare workers with zero prior experience. Especially early in the roll out. I can almost guarantee there was very little aspiration happening because it causes discomfort, requires some skill, and slows down the process.

This was likely a major contributor to the amount of injuries early on. The vaccine was reaching areas of body it wasn’t intended to reach.
 

AzIllini

Active member
Apr 26, 2003
2,261
640
78
This joke could be made about anybody but in this case it is from a misguided lefty. Still funny.

A man died and went to heaven. As he entered he saw a huge wall of clocks. He asked St Peter, what are those clocks? St Peter replied, those are lie clocks.

Every time you lie on earth the clock rotates forward. The 1st clock was from Abraham Lincoln and it only moved 2 times, meaning he only lied 2 times his entire life.

The man then asked about Mother Teresa’s clock because it never had rotated. Yes, she never told a lie.

So where is Trump’s Clock? It is in the Angel’s office, they are using it as a ceiling Fan.

Ha, Ha. Lefties are so funny.
 

dtrain79

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2006
48,200
26,657
113
Yet, whom re-started the diatribe on crime ?

AND

Jogging ?

When you admit you were dead wrong about the crime trend in 2024, I will stop showing up to remind you. I think Uncoach has finally figured out I wasn't lying last year, based on him citing the Wirepoints article with a bunch of assessments I was making back then.

Heck, you can barely admit crime is going down now ... under Trump.

It's OK to be wrong. I didn't like the BB hire, I definitely think I'm in error on it.
 

stoneaxe27

Well-known member
Sep 22, 2006
5,609
6,609
113
Honestly, I don't see the point in arguing whether or not the crime rate is dropping overall. Its only relevant to those interested in gaining political points for their side.

What's relevant is that its far too high in urban America, and has been for a very long time.

The murder rate in Naperville, Illinois is 0.66 per 100k. In Chicago it is 17.47.

Robbery in Naperville 15.28 in Chicago 335.25.

Come talk to me when they are the same.
They never will be the same. Never have been and never will be.
 

djpc

Well-known member
Nov 2, 2001
15,813
6,832
93
...

This was likely a major contributor to the amount of injuries early on. The vaccine was reaching areas of body it wasn’t intended to reach.
Hopefully that was the case in the sense the errors are happening less frequently. I also think it's valid to question the wisdom of injecting a liquid into the body that will turn any cell it touches into a target of the immune system--liquids flow. And I think it's wise to continue to pursue alternatives that don't carry the risks (assuming the risks eventually prove true). The biggest problem is that the whole issue became politicized and as far as I can tell there's never been a credible and transparent effort free of conflicts of interest to look at the range of outcomes the mRNA stuff produces. DHHS has stated an intent to do that. Hopefully it happens. It's the dishonesty/obfuscation from the entities that are supposed to have the safeguarding role that churns out "anti-vaxers". True vaccines are a good thing and have perhaps done as much to increase human lifespan as any other single intervention. But when it comes to the mRNA stuff, I suspect an honest risk reward analysis would relegate it's use to only the most starkly vulnerable. Fortunately they've already backed off to only recommending to those covid is at least somewhat more likely to create a life threatening situation in. I'm also not sure it's wise to stick so many vaccines into infants and young children. I think a thorough examination of the "schedule" will show a lot of vaccine products on it with dubious safety data. For children, only the most rigorously and thoroughly tested products should even be considered.
 

Uncoach

Well-known member
Dec 8, 2011
6,095
8,322
113
Urban areas worldwide, through history have had far higher crime rates than rural towns or small towns. Whether poverty, immigration, congestion etc. it is the subject of many sociology tomes.
There are plenty of good people in these areas. They are stuck. Only loudmouths on the left want to defund the police. Semi-R2D2 didn’t understand the point I was making when posting polling data regarding Sydney Sweeney and AEO. This is the point. Only loudmouths and morons want to defund the police. Poll after poll shows people living in blighted areas want more police presence, not less. I am more than happy to have my taxes go to more police in urban areas of my city. Kids deserve to walk home from school without concern of getting beat up by gangbangers just because they aren’t in the gang. Until there is improved safety in blighted urban areas, there is no reason to address certain behavioral issues.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ILisBest

stoneaxe27

Well-known member
Sep 22, 2006
5,609
6,609
113
There are plenty of good people in these areas. They are stuck. Only loudmouths on the left want to defund the police. Semi-R2D2 didn’t understand the point I was making when posting polling data regarding Sydney Sweeney and AEO. This is the point. Only loudmouths and morons want to defund the police. Poll after poll shows people living in blighted areas want more police presence, not less. I am more than happy to have my taxes go to more police in urban areas of my city. Kids deserve to walk home from school without concern of getting beat up by gangbangers just because they aren’t in the gang. Until there is improved safety in blighted urban areas, there is no reason to address certain behavioral issues.
They didn't get the point you were making BECAUSE you referenced Sydney Sweeny. She kind of distracts from this discussion of law and crime.
 

bucshon

Active member
Staff member
May 10, 2017
486
380
63
Urban areas worldwide, through history have had far higher crime rates than rural towns or small towns. Whether poverty, immigration, congestion etc. it is the subject of many sociology tomes.

Murder rates per 100,000

Hong Kong 0.29.
Singapore. 0.50
Tokyo 0.26
Zurich 0.40
Vienna 0.70
London 1.22
Paris 1.3
Moscow 2.5
Berlin 1.0
Shanghi 0.5
Delhi 1.49
Cairo 1.34
Mumbai 1.4

-----------------------------------------

St. Louis 53.9
Baltimore 44.5
Detroit 32.1
New Orleans 34.7
Washington DC 27.3
Memphis 27.0
Philadelphia 26.0
 
Last edited:

Semi-elite R2R athlete

Well-known member
Sep 13, 2008
3,815
9,022
113
Hopefully that was the case in the sense the errors are happening less frequently. I also think it's valid to question the wisdom of injecting a liquid into the body that will turn any cell it touches into a target of the immune system--liquids flow. And I think it's wise to continue to pursue alternatives that don't carry the risks (assuming the risks eventually prove true). The biggest problem is that the whole issue became politicized and as far as I can tell there's never been a credible and transparent effort free of conflicts of interest to look at the range of outcomes the mRNA stuff produces. DHHS has stated an intent to do that. Hopefully it happens. It's the dishonesty/obfuscation from the entities that are supposed to have the safeguarding role that churns out "anti-vaxers". True vaccines are a good thing and have perhaps done as much to increase human lifespan as any other single intervention. But when it comes to the mRNA stuff, I suspect an honest risk reward analysis would relegate its use to only the most starkly vulnerable. Fortunately they've already backed off to only recommending to those covid is at least somewhat more likely to create a life threatening situation in. I'm also not sure it's wise to stick so many vaccines into infants and young children. I think a thorough examination of the "schedule" will show a lot of vaccine products on it with dubious safety data. For children, only the most rigorously and thoroughly tested products should even be considered.
Agree. There’s a reason the mRNA platform has never been used before. Pharma used the pandemic and EUAs to push through an experimental new platform that they’ve been itching to release for awhile now. It would’ve never passed the current FDA approval process.

Now did the benefits outweigh the risks? For a the most at risk populations, it probably did. For everyone else, I don’t think so.

My concern is now that the cat is out of the bag, they will continue to push the mRNA platform despite its flaws. This administration doesn’t seem interested in slowing that down yet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: djpc

JeffT819

Well-known member
Dec 4, 2001
1,606
1,223
113
Murder rates per 100,000

Hong Kong 0.29.
Singapore. 0.50
Tokyo 0.26
Zurich 0.40
Vienna 0.70
London 1.22
Paris 1.3
Moscow 2.5
Berlin 1.0
Shanghi 0.5
Delhi 1.49
Cario 1.34
Mumbai 1.4

-----------------------------------------

St. Louis 53.9
Baltimore 44.5
Detroit 32.1
New Orleans 34.7
Washington DC 27.3
Memphis 27.0
Philadelphia 26.0
Most of the cities with low murder rates have strict gun laws. Almost all have stricter gun laws than the US.
 
Last edited:

dtrain79

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2006
48,200
26,657
113
Murder rates per 100,000

Hong Kong 0.29.
Singapore. 0.50
Tokyo 0.26
Zurich 0.40
Vienna 0.70
London 1.22
Paris 1.3
Moscow 2.5
Berlin 1.0
Shanghi 0.5
Delhi 1.49
Cairo 1.34
Mumbai 1.4

-----------------------------------------

St. Louis 53.9
Baltimore 44.5
Detroit 32.1
New Orleans 34.7
Washington DC 27.3
Memphis 27.0
Philadelphia 26.0

So it’s a learned behavior that drives the issue.

That can change and it’s actually changed in our lifetimes (hence some of my harping on crime being down a lot over 30 years). But the level of change requires to make Chicago into something like Naperville will take many generations. It’s doable (or at least a much narrower gap is doable) but that kind of progress isn’t overnight.

One other note. For mostly good but also bad, America is ripe with individual freedom and less cultural pressure to conform. One of the large reasons crime here is higher is that those capable of the worst behavior don’t feel as much social pressure not to behave at their worst. The Asian murder rate is lower in part because killing someone is anti-conformist in highly conformist cultures, but the lack of dynamism in their economies also has a lot to do with being too conformist on economic matters (less entrepreneurship for one).

I could go on with a liberty versus security argument - there are real tension between these two things, but I’ve said enough I think. Americans select liberty, there are downsides.