Off topic Current events thread

[Uncoach]

 

[Uncoach]

 

[Uncoach]

 

[Uncoach]

Yep!

 

[Uncoach]

 

[Uncoach]

 

[Uncoach]

These people are morons who drank the koolaid.

 

[dtrain79]

Wait, I thought you had posted in the past Trump hurt the GOP when on ballot? He was not on the ballot yesterday.

I didn't even watch the news last night. The news built this up. We saw losing polls and I accepted those as accurate.

The shut down probably hurt the GOP.

Do you think the tariffs have been effective or have value?

I think Trump is an underperformer generally, but non Prez elections tend to go OK for the President’s party when the Prez has a good approval rating and badly when he doesn’t.

Trump is at 43-44 right now which is bad.

When you look at areas with huge swings to Trump in 2024, especially Hispanic ones in NJ, there was massive swings back to Dems last night. I suspect it was some combo of persuasion (Dem voters who didn’t like Biden giving an entertaining R a chance but moving back to Dems because inflation is still hitting them) and turnout (Trump cleaned up among the lowest information voters who may only show up in the Prez year or may have only shown up for Trump and aren’t regular Presidential voters).

My big takeaway from yesterday is that Youngkin or Rubio would have won by like 7% in 2024, sweeping almost every swing race in the House/Senate. There was a whole lot of voters, especially working class minorities, who thought Trump would bring back his 2019 economy; he hasn’t delivered and they didn’t vote R yesterday. Trump got these voters in 2024 while bleeding educated whites (even ones that don’t like Dems).

Honestly the concerns for the GOP about electoral prospects before 2030 should be really high. Trump isn’t doing much to be liked and the voters decisive for him seem to have limited allegiance to other Rs.

Sounds awful like Obama to me!

 

[dtrain79]

I enjoy your posts even if I don't always agree. Yesterday could/should have been better for the Repubs but they likely were losing in NJ and NY. Several of the pundits talked about how many Republicans have moved from those locations and the hollowing out of the Republican base. I think there is a lot of truth there. The remaining Dem base votes Dem, even if for an attorney general (Virginia) who is a horrid person.

I think it is a worrying aspect of America as we are getting geographically partisan. It should be one country but it is not. Communists, er Social Democrats are ascending in the major cities which control major states and I have no idea what a regular Democrat is anymore.

It's funny but the Jewish leaders in NY are warning Mamdani about what he does as mayor, after they voted for him. He is going to do what he wants, he already ignored them the entire campaign. Why did they vote for him?

Rs lost VA by 5 and NJ by 6 in 2024.

Twelve months later, they lost Gov races by 15 and 13.

Mobility of the electorate seems like a pretty obvious lie to me. That whole year (a year where mobility is way down from, say, 2021 and 2022).

Seems like persuasion and to an extent differential turnout was the issue.

I’d brace myself for big fat Ls in 2026 and 2028 too if the strategy is Vance running for a third Trump term.

 

[AzIllini]

Rs lost VA by 5 and NJ by 6 in 2024.

Twelve months later, they lost Gov races by 15 and 13.

Mobility of the electorate seems like a pretty obvious lie to me. That whole year (a year where mobility is way down from, say, 2021 and 2022).

Seems like persuasion and to an extent differential turnout was the issue.

I’d brace myself for big fat Ls in 2026 and 2028 too if the strategy is Vance running for a third Trump term.

The migration point was from Fox and it is accurate but I would concede that NJ and NY were already hopelessly Dem. The Dems can run people with checkered backgrounds and the base is inclined to support the party bosses, and because Repubs have moved to get away from the madness it is increasingly a slam dunk.

So what is a Dem in 2025? The governors in NJ and Virginia ran as moderates. Does that exist anymore at their national level?

The Dems desperately need to turn on the Federal funding spigots for their NGO's that Trump has turned off. 2026 and 2028 are the most important elections in their history. Saint Gavin Newsome is ready to serve.