Off topic Current events thread
- Thread starter bucshon
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I think Trump is an underperformer generally, but non Prez elections tend to go OK for the President’s party when the Prez has a good approval rating and badly when he doesn’t.
Trump is at 43-44 right now which is bad.
When you look at areas with huge swings to Trump in 2024, especially Hispanic ones in NJ, there was massive swings back to Dems last night. I suspect it was some combo of persuasion (Dem voters who didn’t like Biden giving an entertaining R a chance but moving back to Dems because inflation is still hitting them) and turnout (Trump cleaned up among the lowest information voters who may only show up in the Prez year or may have only shown up for Trump and aren’t regular Presidential voters).
My big takeaway from yesterday is that Youngkin or Rubio would have won by like 7% in 2024, sweeping almost every swing race in the House/Senate. There was a whole lot of voters, especially working class minorities, who thought Trump would bring back his 2019 economy; he hasn’t delivered and they didn’t vote R yesterday. Trump got these voters in 2024 while bleeding educated whites (even ones that don’t like Dems).
Honestly the concerns for the GOP about electoral prospects before 2030 should be really high. Trump isn’t doing much to be liked and the voters decisive for him seem to have limited allegiance to other Rs.
Sounds awful like Obama to me!
Rs lost VA by 5 and NJ by 6 in 2024.
Twelve months later, they lost Gov races by 15 and 13.
Mobility of the electorate seems like a pretty obvious lie to me. That whole year (a year where mobility is way down from, say, 2021 and 2022).
Seems like persuasion and to an extent differential turnout was the issue.
I’d brace myself for big fat Ls in 2026 and 2028 too if the strategy is Vance running for a third Trump term.
The migration point was from Fox and it is accurate but I would concede that NJ and NY were already hopelessly Dem. The Dems can run people with checkered backgrounds and the base is inclined to support the party bosses, and because Repubs have moved to get away from the madness it is increasingly a slam dunk.
So what is a Dem in 2025? The governors in NJ and Virginia ran as moderates. Does that exist anymore at their national level?
The Dems desperately need to turn on the Federal funding spigots for their NGO's that Trump has turned off. 2026 and 2028 are the most important elections in their history. Saint Gavin Newsome is ready to serve.
This is a major issue. Biden(in addition to not being friendly to fossils) flooded our demand in this country. As Trump tries to deport, the left fights him tooth and nails. But the educated have this all figured out and vote against the GOP as things are still expensive???
That makes zero sense.
@dtrain79 funny story you can verify with pics on my fb:
I just came off back to back trips to Vegas and Key West. Of the four ladies that went with us, my wife is the least educated and has an MBA and has a pretty big job. Two of the other ladies had law degrees and are very accomplished. The other one is a CEO of a technology company worth into the billions and has a masters in accounting. These are all well educated and very accomplished women making mega bucks in the real world. They are all consistent GOP voters. They all voted for Trump. Now a couple of them do not love Trumps demeanor(to be fair), but all understand real world decisions and consequences. One is from Canada before moving to Dallas and she can't believe how dumb her country is. She hated the 51st state talk and I agree.
But I regress, the 5 roommates in college of my DIL are all on anti-depressants among other things and none have accomplished anything more than the piece of paper. Guaranteed none could name a policy or even the name of the speaker of the house or any cause and effect on economy or foreign policy, but are considered "high information voters". This is all based on them spending 4+ years at a communist US college. All hate "Orange Man Bad"
You want to measure high information voters? Show me a study of highly productive citizens in the private sector. My x wife went back and graduated from law school post our divorce. She went in as a staunch conservative and came out a huge liberal post 40. She has not held a job in over 10 years post law school, but will tell you just how smart she is. She lives off what I gave her at divorce settlement.
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You didn't answer my question on Tariffs.
If SCOTUS stops the POTUS from having tariff power, all current deals he took across the finish line would still be in effect. I think that would open the door to China, Canada, etc to abuse the US in trade and would generally be bad for the USA and the stock market.
Do you believe Trump used tariffs to successfully tamp down conflicts across the globe? Do you see the massive tariff haul as a good thing as inflation remains reasonable?
It isn't worth pointing out your incorrect statements or your inconsistencies, because your reply is to attempt to castigate the person/persons correcting you and then you disappear for a month or so !
I like to believe this is most dependent IF PARENTS require their children to EARN whatever they are presented with is a reward for ACTUAL WORK, either in the classroom or in the work force !
My Sister's working summers and after school, my kids not in a basement (except Matt, in his weight/conditioning, wrestling mat area in this basement !)
We expect results from our children !
Agree. My wife and I paid for college for our kids, but there is a hard stop when they leave college. We literally pay for nothing with the exception of health ins(to 26 as needed). They also are not allowed to move back home post college. Last year(when I was sick), I updated my will and trust. I made it not pay anything until the age of 35 for my kids. I also limited the amount they can take out of it for 10 years. I also limited my son's inheretance if he is still married to the dumb pot smoking liberal when I die. I didn't work hard in my life to have my earnings flow to the left.
My oldest DIL complained to the other kids last Christmas that we have deep pockets and do not help them much. When it got back to me what was said, I sat them all down and told them one of my most satisfying feelings in life was accomplishing higher levels in my career/ income. I told them I loved them all enough to not rob them of that feeling. So, go climb that hill!!!
The collegiate system is playing a huge part in the destruction of our society. There are any number of incoming college kids who go in with solid upbringing and come out of college as leftist zombies. People with minds that aren’t as strong who are surrounded by the wrong crowd surely do become unrecognizable libs. The old saying was “If you are 20 and a Republican, you have no heart. If you’re 40 and a Democrat, you have no brain.” We have a lot of people with no brains running around our country.
Most of you haven't seen Mary Anne !
I first spoke to her on 06/15 on her 18th B-Day, no I'm not so stupid to enter the year here !
We've been together since !
So I got MY trophy Wife on the FIRST TRY !
She KNOWS that I would look AND memorize what I saw in the elevator !
She KNOWS that I was trained for multiple hours and tests in NJSP to see and recall what is in my view !
She KNOWS that I have NO interest in Sidney S. (Plus I'm too old, IF I did !)
Good luck to some young hard charger !
I first spoke to her on 06/15 on her 18th B-Day, no I'm not so stupid to enter the year here !
We've been together since !
So I got MY trophy Wife on the FIRST TRY !
She KNOWS that I would look AND memorize what I saw in the elevator !
She KNOWS that I was trained for multiple hours and tests in NJSP to see and recall what is in my view !
She KNOWS that I have NO interest in Sidney S. (Plus I'm too old, IF I did !)
Good luck to some young hard charger !
Nothing has changed in the past 50 + years.
Syracuse Univ has the entrances to main campus and Admin Building barricaded and occupies for Country-wide protests over the Viet Nam War !
I go over to and enter the Admin Building to see who and what was going on with these protests.
I saw and heard what I wanted and left the Building for a beer at Ed's Place (Local FB team hangout !)
Syracuse PD Chief came along and threatened arrest and tear gas ! Building empties, barricades taken down as Admin caves !
No more classes OR finals. You could opt to take your current grade OR take the final !
School empties !
Not just running around, starting to just run our country. Getting put in really important positions.
A lot of progressive movements are pushed on young kids because kids blindly support what they are told to support. You see it with the gender movement. Kids are the best audience because the presenter gets validation. Adults are less likely to give them that.
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WE GAVE them the Vote !
Many of you have seen these huge buildings and parking lots as you get cheap gas nearby !
Walmart is the name !
I'm told that Walmart has something called an "App" on many women's cell phones !
That "App" allows these women to order foodstuffs on the cell AND Walmart DELIVERS to these women's front porch FOR NO DELIVER CHARGE OR TIP !
We have 2 Walmart stores, each about 10 miles away = 20 miles round trip, either store !
Mary Anne has gone to a Walmart to pick up both Amanda's order and her's ! They both have ordered on the "App" and when Mary Anne arrives a Walmart employee will bring out the 2 orders !
What does Mary Anne have to do , First ?
GAS UP the car !
She just returned.
I was WRONG ! She in her largesse gave the girl that loaded the SUV, a dollar tip !
The girl was shocked to receive anything !
Many of you have seen these huge buildings and parking lots as you get cheap gas nearby !
Walmart is the name !
I'm told that Walmart has something called an "App" on many women's cell phones !
That "App" allows these women to order foodstuffs on the cell AND Walmart DELIVERS to these women's front porch FOR NO DELIVER CHARGE OR TIP !
We have 2 Walmart stores, each about 10 miles away = 20 miles round trip, either store !
Mary Anne has gone to a Walmart to pick up both Amanda's order and her's ! They both have ordered on the "App" and when Mary Anne arrives a Walmart employee will bring out the 2 orders !
What does Mary Anne have to do , First ?
GAS UP the car !
She just returned.
I was WRONG ! She in her largesse gave the girl that loaded the SUV, a dollar tip !
The girl was shocked to receive anything !
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The migration point is NOT ACCURATE from 2024 to 2025. Migration made basically no difference in the election changes between these 12 months.
Of course there are moderate Dems at the national level. Both these women are in Congress right now (I guess that's two vacancies to benefit Rs lol).
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I think tariffs are bad policy as a general proposition, there's no evidence they are bringing back manufacturing, and there are far better geopolitical tools at the President's disposal (sanctions being an obvious example).
I have no idea why Republicans feel compelled to defend bad policy because a single guy claiming to be a Republican likes them.
All that said, not every tariff ever was unwarranted. Some China tariffs are absolutely warranted. Some tariffs on trading partners with Russia make sense to me (could use sanctions as well).
Almost every person you know is a high information voter.
You spend far too much time contemplating how people who share your political views are awesome and how those who don't are terrible. There are tons of rich Republicans and tons of rich Democrats. Because America is rich.
I'm not sure how we got to the Team Red versus Team Blue distinction. I can only hope in a decade it will no longer be a thing, then again it was a decade ago Trump first showed up so I'm probably way too optimistic.
...and to the converse you love to constantly point out the uneducated likes the GOP/ Trump. My post was relevant to your post. I don't spend time contemplating until I read your "low information voter" posts that don't resemble reality.
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Well, there is common sense evidence. It may take time, but ultimately selling products not manufactured here will be more costly. Any product manufactured elsewhere and sold to the world's largest market will have to now factor a new "cost of goods" to sell in this market and compare to making it here. It also gives US companies an advantage. I know we have liberal studies and talking heads that will argue there is no real evidence. I looked them up on AI after reading your post. My son consults here for companies selling in big box retailers. He said there is no real significant cost being passed on to the consumer that he can see in his space. He actually talked about a couple of his customers that bring products in from China that negotiated with Target to switch to end caps and they both ate some of the tariff to stay competitive with similar products elsewhere. Yes, it is anecdotal, but considering product sellers have to compete online with similar products at say a Walmart or Best Buy. These are all easily shopped online by a consumer. The consumer has the advantage with ease of comparing nowadays.
Claiming to be Republican? If I want men in women's sports, open borders, and higher taxes am I claiming to be a democrat? Seems to me Trump governs like a R.
I believe it's been Trump that lauds his success among the less educated.
But I will explain. The average Trump voter is not a lower information voter. And for sure the average MAGA acolyte is not a low information voter.
Trump put up historic numbers among certain working class groups (especially Hispanics) in a variety of places throughout the country (interestingly, not all Hispanic heavy areas, but a lot). Many of those who voted for him aren't even regular Presidential race voters. Some are Presidential-race only, voting once every 4 years consistently.
Historically among such groups, Democrats feasted. However, Trump made major inroads among them, and almost certainly a lot of his "winning margin" was generated in these groups. When both parties are basically guaranteed 45% as they currently are, pockets of swing voters take on added importance. And "low information Trump curious minorities" were a big, big swing voter group in 2024, discussed extensively before the election btw. These people snapped back massively towards Dems in NJ/VA last night, it's a huge issue for Rs.
I'm linking the below article from Steve Kornacki discussing this group in NJ.
Steve Kornacki: 2 warnings for Republicans in NJ governor results – NBC10 Philadelphia
It's your party, not mine, define it as you wish. I don't think Trump was a Republican consistent with the party's history in 2015. The party's voters have evolved in a mutually reinforcing way with him. I'm comfortable not changing my views, so I advocate for neither team at this point.
As for the tariffs, I have no idea what "liberal studies" folks have weighed. If you mean economists, it just happens to be by far the most conservative set of "academics" we have. Yes, economists think widespread tariffs are stupid policy, because economists tend to have insight into things like the global supply chain, comparative advantage, and price competitiveness. Javier Milei (I know you know him) happens to be ... an economist! Go figure!
It was a perfect storm for the Rs. Even though they should have lost and did. The controlling party is almost always blamed for problems. The problems need to be significant enough to be recognized easily. Kamala had two massive issues right off the top. Inflation and the border were not something a weak candidate can overcome. This week the dems rode the shut down that they voted for into some better numbers as the wins were coming either way.I believe it's been Trump that lauds his success among the less educated.
But I will explain. The average Trump voter is not a lower information voter. And for sure the average MAGA acolyte is not a low information voter.
Trump put up historic numbers among certain working class groups (especially Hispanics) in a variety of places throughout the country (interestingly, not all Hispanic heavy areas, but a lot). Many of those who voted for him aren't even regular Presidential race voters. Some are Presidential-race only, voting once every 4 years consistently.
Historically among such groups, Democrats feasted. However, Trump made major inroads among them, and almost certainly a lot of his "winning margin" was generated in these groups. When both parties are basically guaranteed 45% as they currently are, pockets of swing voters take on added importance. And "low information Trump curious minorities" were a big, big swing voter group in 2024, discussed extensively before the election btw. These people snapped back massively towards Dems in NJ/VA last night, it's a huge issue for Rs.
I'm linking the below article from Steve Kornacki discussing this group in NJ.
Steve Kornacki: 2 warnings for Republicans in NJ governor results – NBC10 Philadelphia
Trump will need some big economic wins for the Rs to retain power in the midterms. I am leaning he won't have enough before they happen, but those losses are expected by most as the population always has something to complain about and again the controlling party is blamed. Balancing oil prices and food prices are hard enough without a population that expects you to get them back to pre-Biden. I just don't see that as a possibility minus a recession and way more mass deportations.
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When the premise of their theories are based on the assumption there was fair and equitable trade when Trump took office, I stop listening.
That is pure fantasy. You have to speak to what was real in the actual US trade deals and the real long term implications of not having a reckoning.
On average, I believe US exporters paid about an average rate of 3-4% in tariffs, while imports into the US were about 2.5%.
I'm not sure how that 1% differential was particularly impactful, but I do know that the USA has definitely benefited from the world trading order in my lifetime.
It feels sometimes like people want to make arguments about certain industries we'd want to more seriously consider repatriating but that gets lost in the "must defend Trump" shuffle.
Getting rid of 10,000,000 illegals is a great start !
Obumma is credited with throwing out 3,000,000 even in his Geopolitical world view !
Trump is ONLY at about 2/3's of Obumma's # with Dems kicking and screaming the whole way !
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You should refrain from economics, about which your comments and track record since Jan 20 Th are proof positive that your intellect is still suffering from TDS 2.0 !
The problem with Train's tariff argument is pretty simple - economists view things quite narrowly. They look only at economics and much of the time they aren't very good at that. Tariffs were used by Trump to do what? End wars, stop drug trafficking, promote the USD, open markets for US products, bring investment, maintain access to rare Earths, gain support for US policy, etc.
Really, it was quite brilliant across the board, and I don't need the guy who told me in April that inflation was going to SOAR while the economy was tanking to tell me "Economists say". Frankly, the Wall Street Journal recently published "The why economists got tariffs wrong" article. The WSJ is no friend of Trump's.
How else do I know Train has been wrong? His rare appearances on this board which miraculously coincide with perceived bad news for Trump.
Tariffs have also produced 600B in revenue with most of that money coming from the exporter's profits as evidenced by 3 percent inflation. The deficit is improving too with Y-O-Y spending down 2.5 percent.
I'm sure more of the easy one liners like cultists, sycophants, etc. will arise, but results matter and that is why the WSJ was forced to publish the attached article which was common sense for many of us on Liberation Day.
How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs - WSJ