GDP down .3%

[dorndawg]

"If the blowout on trade was the result of firms pre-buying imported inputs to beat the tariffs, the decay in the trade balance will reverse in second quarter," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "That will generate some GDP growth. However, corrosive uncertainty and higher taxes - tariffs are a tax on imports - will drag GDP growth back into the red by the end of this year." Gross domestic product decreased at a 0.3% annualized rate last quarter, the first decline since the first quarter of 2022, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of first-quarter GDP.

https://www.reuters.com/business/stockpiling-ahead-tariffs-likely-hurt-us-economy-first-quarter-2025-04-30/

 

[The Cooterpoot]

Big Government been propping up that number for awhile. Less government spending is dragging it down.

 

[dorndawg]

Big Government been propping up that number for awhile. Less government spending is dragging it down.

Government spending is up 6%.

Government spending rises more than 6% over Trump’s first 100 days despite DOGE’s efforts

Despite Elon Musk's DOGE promising trillions of dollars in savings, federal spending is still climbing.

fortune.com

 

[Anon1717806835]

Big Government been propping up that number for awhile. Less government spending is dragging it down.

Nice try, but government spending was up 13% in the first three months of 2025 when compared to the same period last year.

Monthly Budget Review: February 2025 | Congressional Budget Office

www.cbo.gov

 

[GloryDawg]

Government spending was down 5.1 percent for the quarter.

 

[johnson86-1]

"If the blowout on trade was the result of firms pre-buying imported inputs to beat the tariffs, the decay in the trade balance will reverse in second quarter," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "That will generate some GDP growth. However, corrosive uncertainty and higher taxes - tariffs are a tax on imports - will drag GDP growth back into the red by the end of this year." Gross domestic product decreased at a 0.3% annualized rate last quarter, the first decline since the first quarter of 2022, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of first-quarter GDP.

View attachment 797082

https://www.reuters.com/business/stockpiling-ahead-tariffs-likely-hurt-us-economy-first-quarter-2025-04-30/

Man, what a terrible headline. Stockpiling didn't hurt the economy. It reduced measured GDP. Certainly there is a concern about how tariffs are going to impact the economy, but they are basically buying into the pro tariff argument that imports are bad for the economy because they subtract from GDP. Just a total lack of understanding of what an accounting identity is and what GDP measures and their relationship to actual prosperity for people in the US.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Big Government been propping up that number for awhile. Less government spending is dragging it down.

Trump is doing what he did in his first term and spending like a teenager with her parents credit card. He’s no better than any of our recent presidents when it comes to deficit spending.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

Nice try, but government spending was up 13% in the first three months of 2025 when compared to the same period last year.

Monthly Budget Review: February 2025 | Congressional Budget Office

www.cbo.gov

LOL nah, go look where the money goes now compared to recent years. But I'm no Trump fan so I'm not defending him. The cuts are hurting.

 

[3dawgnight]

Do we really expect to never go through periods of contraction?

 

[MSUDAWGFAN]

"If the blowout on trade was the result of firms pre-buying imported inputs to beat the tariffs, the decay in the trade balance will reverse in second quarter," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "That will generate some GDP growth. However, corrosive uncertainty and higher taxes - tariffs are a tax on imports - will drag GDP growth back into the red by the end of this year." Gross domestic product decreased at a 0.3% annualized rate last quarter, the first decline since the first quarter of 2022, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of first-quarter GDP.

View attachment 797082

https://www.reuters.com/business/stockpiling-ahead-tariffs-likely-hurt-us-economy-first-quarter-2025-04-30/

Let's look at some good news
Hyundai announced a $20 billion investment in the US, which will create 14,000 new jobs. The investment includes $5.8 billion for a new steel plant in Louisiana which will create nearly 1,500 new jobs.
TSMC announced an unprecedented $100 billion investment in US based semiconductor chip manufacturing
Apple announced a $500 billion investment that will create 20,000 new jobs
CMA CGM announced a $20 billion investment in US shipbuilding and logistics which will create 10,000 new jobs.
Eli Lilly announced a $27 billion investment in US based manufacturing
Clarios, a leader in low voltage energy storage, announced a $6 billion plan to expand its US based manufactiring
After meeting with President Trump, Stellantis will reopen its assembly plany in Belvidere Illinois, putting 1,500 people back to work

 

[Podgy]

Big Government been propping up that number for awhile. Less government spending is dragging it down.

Except govt spending has actually gone up under Trump

 

[GloryDawg]

Man, what a terrible headline. Stockpiling didn't hurt the economy. It reduced measured GDP. Certainly there is a concern about how tariffs are going to impact the economy, but they are basically buying into the pro tariff argument that imports are bad for the economy because they subtract from GDP. Just a total lack of understanding of what an accounting identity is and what GDP measures and their relationship to actual prosperity for people in the US.

I don't think most people understand the GDP much less what makes up the GDP.

 

[MSUDAWGFAN]

Let's look at some good news
Hyundai announced a $20 billion investment in the US, which will create 14,000 new jobs. The investment includes $5.8 billion for a new steel plant in Louisiana which will create nearly 1,500 new jobs.
TSMC announced an unprecedented $100 billion investment in US based semiconductor chip manufacturing
Apple announced a $500 billion investment that will create 20,000 new jobs
CMA CGM announced a $20 billion investment in US shipbuilding and logistics which will create 10,000 new jobs.
Eli Lilly announced a $27 billion investment in US based manufacturing
Clarios, a leader in low voltage energy storage, announced a $6 billion plan to expand its US based manufactiring
After meeting with President Trump, Stellantis will reopen its assembly plany in Belvidere Illinois, putting 1,500 people back to work

More good news that isn't related to US investment

Reduced illegal border crossings by 99%
99% increase in arrests of criminal aliens
137% increase in arrests in the interior of the country.

 

[GloryDawg]

Trump is doing what he did in his first term and spending like a teenager with her parents credit card. He’s no better than any of our recent presidents when it comes to deficit spending.

Explain how Trump is spending more money since he took office if Government spending is down since he took office. Anyways any money that is being spent was approved by the Biden administration not Trump. We are still operating under the last administration appropriation bill.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I don't think most people understand the GDP much less what makes up the GDP.

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

It’s engrained into my brain from all my macroeconomic classes at State.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Explain how Trump is spending more money since he took office if Government spending is down since he took office. Anyways any money that is being spent was approved by the Biden administration not Trump. We are still operating under the last administration appropriation bill.

Just sit back and wait. He’s not going to be any different from his first term. The guy spends money like crazy.

 

[MSUDAWGFAN]

LOL nah, go look where the money goes now compared to recent years. But I'm no Trump fan so I'm not defending him. The cuts are hurting.

These are some of the items we cut. I'm in favor of cutting all of these. Granted, most are drops in the bucket but it all mounts up. Yes, these costs hurt.

$10,000 for "Bearded Ladies Cabaret"
$168,000 for an Anthony Fauci museum
$2M for sex change operations in Guatemala
$20M fir Sesame Street in Iraq
Nearly $600M in grants including "Gender Equity in the Mexican workplace" and "assisting foreign migrant workers" in Malaysia.

 

[Podgy]

Let's look at some good news
Hyundai announced a $20 billion investment in the US, which will create 14,000 new jobs. The investment includes $5.8 billion for a new steel plant in Louisiana which will create nearly 1,500 new jobs.
TSMC announced an unprecedented $100 billion investment in US based semiconductor chip manufacturing
Apple announced a $500 billion investment that will create 20,000 new jobs
CMA CGM announced a $20 billion investment in US shipbuilding and logistics which will create 10,000 new jobs.
Eli Lilly announced a $27 billion investment in US based manufacturing
Clarios, a leader in low voltage energy storage, announced a $6 billion plan to expand its US based manufactiring
After meeting with President Trump, Stellantis will reopen its assembly plany in Belvidere Illinois, putting 1,500 people back to work

You can make trade deals without screwing up our economy and the world economy, by not publicly treating allies and enemies the same and by not threatening and insulting just about everyone but Putin. It's bizarre. Clips from White House cabinet meetings look like something out of North Korea where Dear Leader is praised profusely for saving America from disaster and pronouns.

 

[Podgy]

More good news that isn't related to US investment

Reduced illegal border crossings by 99%
99% increase in arrests of criminal aliens
137% increase in arrests in the interior of the country.

Biden and the Dems really screwed up on the border. I suspect if Trump hadn't gone all in on tariffs he's still be above water in popularity and we wouldn't have such a decline in the stock market and economic uncertainty. But tariffs have become the new ivermectin for MAGA.

I've become a big fan of not electing anyone over age 70 as president. Look at Biden and Trump. 78-year-old brains don't work well for most 78-year-olds and they are close to the average life span for a male brain.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

The CPI isn't going to get back to 2% or lower without at least one negative quarter of growth. The PCE decelerated to 2.3% in March after posting 2.7% in February. I expect well see the next CPI print follow the PCE.

 

[johnson86-1]

Trump is doing what he did in his first term and spending like a teenager with her parents credit card. He’s no better than any of our recent presidents when it comes to deficit spending.

Trump is not worried about the deficit, but he is not increasing spending. Interest on debt, social security, medicare, etc. are all out of his control. Right now they are at least staunching some of the worst abuses, but Congress is necessary to fix spending, and obviously they don't want to do actual work.

 

[ronpolk]

This thread is a perfect example of why you can’t have political discussions. In one thread, I’ve seen gov spending increased by 13% and one post said increased by 6% and another post said it declined by 5%. There should be no disagreement on that or slant in reporting. Whatever that number is, rather it’s an increase or decrease, should be a verifiable fact.

 

[dorndawg]

Just sit back and wait. He’s not going to be any different from his first term. The guy spends money like crazy.

Not many people have the skillz to bankrupt a casino.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Government spending is up 6%.

Government spending rises more than 6% over Trump’s first 100 days despite DOGE’s efforts

Despite Elon Musk's DOGE promising trillions of dollars in savings, federal spending is still climbing.

fortune.com

Kind of amazing that people can’t even objectively look at facts. Federal spending is $200 billion higher this year than the same time period last year. It’s almost like all this “fraud” being found and cuts are a blitz of BS and showmanship to appeal to the MAGA echo chamber…

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Big Government been propping up that number for awhile. Less government spending is dragging it down.

How do you state this in the face of our federal government spending $200 billion more this year than last year so far?

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Trump is doing what he did in his first term and spending like a teenager with her parents credit card. He’s no better than any of our recent presidents when it comes to deficit spending.

Demonstrably worse by the numbers. He will make some of it up by selling Teslas out of the rose garden so there’s that…

 

[horshack.sixpack]

LOL nah, go look where the money goes now compared to recent years. But I'm no Trump fan so I'm not defending him. The cuts are hurting.

Another post with literally no supporting facts. MAGA on

 

[jethreauxdawg]

This thread is a perfect example of why you can’t have political discussions. In one thread, I’ve seen gov spending increased by 13% and one post said increased by 6% and another post said it declined by 5%. There should be no disagreement on that or slant in reporting. Whatever that number is, rather it’s an increase or decrease, should be a verifiable fact.

You can have an increase of 13% over Q1 2024, an increase of 6% over Q4 2024, and a decrease of 5% from what was planned to be spent in Q1 2025. Those are all hypothetical examples. Politicians are in sales, they will figure out a way to lie while telling the truth.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

How do you state this in the face of our federal government spending $200 billion more this year than last year so far?

I do believe the spending so far this year was the result of planning/purchase orders from last year.

 

[Dawgzilla2]

This thread is a perfect example of why you can’t have political discussions. In one thread, I’ve seen gov spending increased by 13% and one post said increased by 6% and another post said it declined by 5%. There should be no disagreement on that or slant in reporting. Whatever that number is, rather it’s an increase or decrease, should be a verifiable fact.

Without looking at anyone's homework, I'm guessing the different numbers depend on what you are comparing. Spending may have increased or decreased compared to some point in the past.

My spending this morning is 200% higher than yesterday. My spending for this week is 50% lower than this same time last week...but my mortgage payment is due tomorrow. That's when I'll update you on my monthly spending.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

More good news that isn't related to US investment

Reduced illegal border crossings by 99%
99% increase in arrests of criminal aliens
137% increase in arrests in the interior of the country.

Being in a cult makes it hard to come by facts so I’ll help. The BS numbers you are touting come from a lack of mathing combined with total disregard for how trumps cancelling the asylum (I.e. legal immigration path) program on day 1. The sheer number of crap data that MAGAs will ingest and parrot is crazy.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection data:

• Border officials encountered migrants trying to cross the U.S. southern border 20,086 times during Biden’s last seven days in office. That’s an average of 2,869 times a day.
• During Trump’s first seven days, border officials encountered migrants trying to cross the U.S. southern border 7,287 times. An average of 1,041 times a day.

That’s a 60 percent drop, not a 95 percent drop as the White House claimed in its Instagram post.

Additionally, the White House and Fox News are using encounters both at official ports of entry and between them. Under Biden’s administration, people could make appointments at official ports of entry and be legally allowed to enter the U.S. to seek asylum. Those appointments still counted as encounters, even though they did not not represent illegal immigration. Trump ended that program on his first day in office and cancelled all existing appointments.

 

[aTotal360]

Government spending decreased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter. Federal spending fell sharply by 5.1%, partially offset by a modest 0.8% increase in state and local government expenditures.

U.S. Economy Contracted in First Quarter of 2025

The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025 for the first time in three years, driven by a sharp surge in pre-tariff imports, softening consumer spending, and a decline in government spending. According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)...

eyeonhousing.org

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Explain how Trump is spending more money since he took office if Government spending is down since he took office. Anyways any money that is being spent was approved by the Biden administration not Trump. We are still operating under the last administration appropriation bill.

Wtf? Trump is running roughshod over Congressionally funded programs. To suggest he is following the spending of Biden is laughable.

 

[GloryDawg]

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

It’s engrained into my brain from all my macroeconomic classes at State.

Impressed.

Just sit back and wait. He’s not going to be any different from his first term. The guy spends money like crazy.

He will spend money. The Government has to spend money. I will wait and see what he spends it on before I go one way or the other about him.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

These are some of the items we cut. I'm in favor of cutting all of these. Granted, most are drops in the bucket but it all mounts up. Yes, these costs hurt.

$10,000 for "Bearded Ladies Cabaret"
$168,000 for an Anthony Fauci museum
$2M for sex change operations in Guatemala
$20M fir Sesame Street in Iraq
Nearly $600M in grants including "Gender Equity in the Mexican workplace" and "assisting foreign migrant workers" in Malaysia.

Tell me you don’t get anything to read from your echo chamber without telling me you don’t get anything you read from your echo chamber…

 

[GloryDawg]

Wtf? Trump is running roughshod over Congressionally funded programs. To suggest he is following the spending of Biden is laughable.

That's probably why spending is down 5% since he took office.

 

[Podgy]

These are some of the items we cut. I'm in favor of cutting all of these. Granted, most are drops in the bucket but it all mounts up. Yes, these costs hurt.

$10,000 for "Bearded Ladies Cabaret"
$168,000 for an Anthony Fauci museum
$2M for sex change operations in Guatemala
$20M fir Sesame Street in Iraq
Nearly $600M in grants including "Gender Equity in the Mexican workplace" and "assisting foreign migrant workers" in Malaysia.

Those are likely dumb programs. Cut them without acting you're making even a dent in spending. Way too much outrage over that incredibly tiny amount of spending than on the big stuff. I get the principle of it.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Not many people have the skillz to bankrupt a casino.

I think that if my dad had left me 9 figures of wealth I could have possibly only bankrupted 5 companies, or maybe even zero, but I’m not nearly as bright as our king.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

One side says spending up. One side says spending down. Tell me this, why in the holy hell can we not all agree on what should be a damned FACT? I don't even know the answer, all I know is that it should be a universally accepted fact. We can argue about whether it's good or bad or why it's up or down, but being up or down should not be able to be argued. So which is it?

I mean I just had some clown yesterday argue with me that 2020 was not chaos. I don't care who you voted for, how can that be debated?

 

[The Cooterpoot]

What's impressive is all these "media outlets" (speaking of lost their way) have different numbers. Just shows how politicized it all is now.