How has our offense performed this year so far?

[Veiox]

Here is my view of our offense so far:

We have played against 2 good defenses (top 40), one average defense (41-80) and 4 poor defenses. Here is how we have done on offense:


56 points against NSU (FCS so I put them as #200, average FCS + 127 FBS)
20 points against WSU (defense ranked #90)
3 points against PSU (defense ranked #23)
27 points against Kansas (defense ranked #127)
24 points against MSU (defense ranked #67)
49 points against Indy (defense ranked #119)
7 points against OSU (defense ranked #13)


Here is my linear regression of Off pts versus Def rank

Still to go:

Michigan (defense #1)
Wisconsin (defense #8)
Nebraska (defense #91)
Maryland (defense #104)
Army (defense #62)

BTW, the r2 for that linear regression above is 0.8234. Pretty damn good correlation for how many points versus defensive rank. If you have not extrapolated for the next two games, it suggests we don't score more than a few points each week as they are the two best defenses we face all season by rank.

I am going to now analyze our pass offense vs pass defense rank and then same for running game. I will post both later.

 

[derleider]

So basically, we can expect to score somewhere in the 26-28 point range against Nebraska, 30+ against MD, and maybe 20 against Army.

Are any of those good enough to actually win those games?

 

[iReC89]

So - if we score more then 10 point sin the next 2 weeks we should see that as progress?

The 2 variables are not completely independent though, as our ability to score contributes to opponent ranking.

 

[Veiox]

Just one quick note, I re-ran the analysis with a classification variable of Home/Away and the r2 is up to 0.9263. Using these results, the next two weeks on the road the prediction is for 3 against Wisc and 0 against Mich. For our last three games the prediction is 24 Neb, 27 Md, 24 Army.

 

[Veiox]

Guys, I will post more in a bit but I am find some interesting things. I just ran these analyses so far:

off pts scored versus def rank r2=0.8234
off pts scored versus def rank with a classification of home/away r2=0.9263
off pts scored versus pass def rank with a classification of home/away r2=0.9489
off pts scored versus rush def rank with a classification of home/away r2=0.3976

So what does that mean so far? The best indicator of how much we will score is the pass defense rank of our opponent. Against bad pass defenses we have scored points even if the run defense was good. If our opponents had good pass defense (PSU #17, WSU #54, OSU #9) we struggle to put points on the board via offense. For those wondering, MSU's pass defense is #107.

Michigan is #4 against the pass and Wisconsin is #42.

That gives me hope if we can pass the ball on Wisky we might be able to put up some points. If the offense can score 17 and the defense/ST can get a score maybe we can win something like 24-21. The key to us scoring this year (so far at least) has been success in the passing game.

 

[Metropolitans3]

Great thread. [thumb2]

 

[RAA-1]

Nice work Veoix and very interesting.

 

[cRURah]

Most interesting thread in a long time. Good job Velox. I take it you majored in math or engineering?

 

[cRURah]

Most interesting thread in a long time. Good job Velox. I take it you majored in math or engineering?

 

[Veiox]

Most interesting thread in a long time. Good job Velox. I take it you majored in math or engineering?

Nope current college student who had to take a stats class last semester. At least I learned something.

 

[Veiox]

Most interesting thread in a long time. Good job Velox. I take it you majored in math or engineering?

I am thinking out loud here...I am guessing that teams with a good pass defense probably force us to punt if we get to 3rd and more than 5 or so. That means even if we are running the ball OK our drives bog down once we hit a 3rd and 5+. Against weak pass teams I am guessing that we probably do a better job converting on 3rd down and also hitting more big passing plays on earlier downs...hence more points.

I hope we can pass the ball on Wisconsin because otherwise it will be another low output by our offense.

 

[MoobyCow]

Great thread. Weak passing D has allowed us to hit some big plays for scores. Dinking and dunking down the field is hard and we always seem to shoot ourselves in the foot even if the D doesn't stop us.

Of course we had some big runs as well in a couple of games so who knows if I'm right.

 

[redking]

Nope current college student who had to take a stats class last semester. At least I learned something.

Hope you got an "A". If not, show your professor this thread and tell him you did some extra credit AND you're buddies with Coach Flood. That will definitely earn you another grade review. [winking]

 

[Veiox]

Hope you got an "A". If not, show your professor this thread and tell him you did some extra credit AND you're buddies with Coach Flood. That will definitely earn you another grade review. [winking]

LOL - too bad I got an A in that class, I would have tried it.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

This is good stuff

 

[REDRICH65]

Velox, you need to apply for a quality control position with the team. Show your work to the staff.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

I've been saying this all week. Nothing new here, other than going out of your way to chart it, but the bottom line is:

We perform very well against AWFUL D's and can't move/score against Top ones. One that, BTW, Indiana (OSU) and Maryland (PSU and OSU) had NO problem moving AND scoring against (hence my thinking that the Maryland game will be another "last man with the ball" kind of game).

 

[Veiox]

This is good stuff

Here are the Pts Scored versus pass defense rank and run defense rank:

Looking at the graphs you can see the points are much tighter to the best fit regression line in the pass defense rank graph, less error between actual data and best fit line. That pts versus opp pass defense best fit regression line has a decent fit to the data.

I am holding out hope our staff is prepared for Wisconsin because their defense is #8 overall but only #42 against the pass. I think we can move the ball through the air if we gameplan to do so. Not so sure about run game because their run defense is real good.

 

[Veiox]

One additional stat note, Rutgers is 5th in the nation in 1st down passing efficiency. So when we stray from the Run, Run, Pass formula it seems to work. Also of note, 10 of our 14 pass plays of 25+ have come on first down.

 

[cRURah]

One additional stat note, Rutgers is 5th in the nation in 1st down passing efficiency. So when we stray from the Run, Run, Pass formula it seems to work.

Probably because we rarely pass on first down and the opponent is preparing to defend a running play which we call 99% of the time. Run, run, pass, punt

 

[Veiox]

Probably because we rarely pass on first down and the opponent is preparing to defend a running play which we call 99% of the time. Run, run, pass, punt

Actually it is 70% run 30% pass. Also I just edited above to mention that 10 of our 14 explosive pass plays (25+) have come on first down. Maybe we should take advantage of that a little more often.

 

[miketd1]

We can't convert 3rd and long against more talented squads because protection doesn't hold up long enough for receivers to get open. If they blitz, it hits home. If they don't, the coverage is good enough to rely on pressure from the front four.

As you saw in the other thread, OSU was getting immediate pressure rushing just four against our 7 man max protection scheme. Tough finding an open man with 3 receivers going up against 7 pass defenders.

 

[Veiox]

We can't convert 3rd and long against more talented squads because protection doesn't hold up long enough for receivers to get open. If they blitz, it hits home. If they don't, the coverage is good enough to rely on pressure from the front four.

As you saw in the other thread, OSU was getting immediate pressure rushing just four against our 7 man max protection scheme. Tough finding an open man with 3 receivers going up against 7 pass defenders.

Combine that with our best passing down has been first down and maybe an adjustment to our play calling is needed.