I have been on the record before stating that even if we ran the table we are too far back to play for the national title. I wanted to revisit that stance and see if I still believe that. </SPAN></SPAN>
First, we would have to run the table in the SEC which would give us wins against #1 Alabama, #2 Florida (SECCG), and #12 (guessing) LSU (assuming loss to Alabama when they meet). Doing that would put us above every SEC team ranked above us which would move us up at least 4 spots and making us #7. But, if we beat Alabama Saturday we probably jump to #5 in the BCS with that win alone. Beating Florida ( who would more than likely be #1 BCS by then would move us to at least #3 depending on where we were seeded before the SECCG. The only other win of note we would have would be TA&M assuming they are still ranked at season’s end. Beating Arkansas and Ole Miss do nothing for us.</SPAN>
</SPAN>
This brings up the other undefeated teams ahead of us. I am disregarding all of the 1 loss teams because if we are undefeated then we should easily be ahead of them.
</SPAN></SPAN>
Notre Dame – they still have games of note against Oklahoma and USC. Highly unlikely they win both of those but if they do they will somehow find themselves in the NC game.</SPAN></SPAN>
Kansas State – Games of note are against West Virginia and TX. West Virginia has already been exposed and so has TX. I don’t think them running the table places them ahead of an undefeated SEC team.</SPAN></SPAN>
Oregon – Games of note are against #9 USC, #17 Stanford, and #7 Oregon State. If they run the table they are more than likely in because they would probably be facing USC again in the PAC12 CG although they would not be #9 for that game. I still think that schedule gets them a seat at the table.</SPAN>
</SPAN>
Oregon State – Games of note are against #17 Stanford and #4 Oregon. If they run the table you can also add win over USC in there. Win out and they have a very compelling argument.</SPAN></SPAN>
Obviously, Oregon and Oregon State are going to knock one of them out. That will leave a possibility of MSU, Notre Dame, and Oregon/Oregon State as undefeated teams from major conferences vying for two spots. I think we would have a good chance of being ahead of Oregon State should they be PAC12 survivor but not so sure if we jump Oregon. Notre Dame is just too much of a media darling for us to jump them. If all those teams run the table I could easily see a Notre Dame vs. Oregon for the title. However, as stated earlier I don’t think Notre Dame runs the table. I think they get loss #1 this Saturday in Norman. If that happens then I think we are sitting in a good spot to claim one of the two spots. I put our chance at 70% if Notre Dame is a 1 loss team. There is still a massive amount of SEC hatred out there and the only thing that would make them happier than an SEC team losing the NC game is not playing in it in the first place. There WILL be a concerted effort to keep an SEC team out of the game if at all possible. If Notre Dame, Oregon, Kansas State, and MSU are all undefeated I place our chances at 40%. </SPAN></SPAN>
First, we would have to run the table in the SEC which would give us wins against #1 Alabama, #2 Florida (SECCG), and #12 (guessing) LSU (assuming loss to Alabama when they meet). Doing that would put us above every SEC team ranked above us which would move us up at least 4 spots and making us #7. But, if we beat Alabama Saturday we probably jump to #5 in the BCS with that win alone. Beating Florida ( who would more than likely be #1 BCS by then would move us to at least #3 depending on where we were seeded before the SECCG. The only other win of note we would have would be TA&M assuming they are still ranked at season’s end. Beating Arkansas and Ole Miss do nothing for us.</SPAN>
</SPAN>
This brings up the other undefeated teams ahead of us. I am disregarding all of the 1 loss teams because if we are undefeated then we should easily be ahead of them.
</SPAN></SPAN>
Notre Dame – they still have games of note against Oklahoma and USC. Highly unlikely they win both of those but if they do they will somehow find themselves in the NC game.</SPAN></SPAN>
Kansas State – Games of note are against West Virginia and TX. West Virginia has already been exposed and so has TX. I don’t think them running the table places them ahead of an undefeated SEC team.</SPAN></SPAN>
Oregon – Games of note are against #9 USC, #17 Stanford, and #7 Oregon State. If they run the table they are more than likely in because they would probably be facing USC again in the PAC12 CG although they would not be #9 for that game. I still think that schedule gets them a seat at the table.</SPAN>
</SPAN>
Oregon State – Games of note are against #17 Stanford and #4 Oregon. If they run the table you can also add win over USC in there. Win out and they have a very compelling argument.</SPAN></SPAN>
Obviously, Oregon and Oregon State are going to knock one of them out. That will leave a possibility of MSU, Notre Dame, and Oregon/Oregon State as undefeated teams from major conferences vying for two spots. I think we would have a good chance of being ahead of Oregon State should they be PAC12 survivor but not so sure if we jump Oregon. Notre Dame is just too much of a media darling for us to jump them. If all those teams run the table I could easily see a Notre Dame vs. Oregon for the title. However, as stated earlier I don’t think Notre Dame runs the table. I think they get loss #1 this Saturday in Norman. If that happens then I think we are sitting in a good spot to claim one of the two spots. I put our chance at 70% if Notre Dame is a 1 loss team. There is still a massive amount of SEC hatred out there and the only thing that would make them happier than an SEC team losing the NC game is not playing in it in the first place. There WILL be a concerted effort to keep an SEC team out of the game if at all possible. If Notre Dame, Oregon, Kansas State, and MSU are all undefeated I place our chances at 40%. </SPAN></SPAN>