Jobs Report

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
22,467
17,249
113
Ouch! How could this be - Trump told us that the U.S. is experiencing economic “growth” at levels “never seen before”?



And now that US companies are selling through their inventory, they'll have to pay the new tariffs. Is a recession coming?

 
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PAWrocka

Heisman
Nov 3, 2008
20,735
27,774
103
Whats funny, is while folks are getting fired, I'm sure the stock market will surge
I was laid off from Raytheon in 2023 after 24 years of service. Totally caught me by surprise …. 24 years and I was gone in 6 minutes.

that same year, Raytheon posted record profits and paid out record executive bonuses. Since my lay off there have been 3 more rounds … I. 2024 Raytheon profits, again, broke records.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
22,467
17,249
113
Please explain what I’m missing?
You're focused on the wrong thing. You're noting what a small percentage of the workforce that is when you should be focused on the fact that private sector payrolls are going down instead of up. When combined with the adjustment down of the May numbers, it's a sign the economy is slowing. This isn't hard.
 

chscoggins

Junior
Jan 6, 2011
111
230
43
Thanks and I agree. We need numbers from different months to see a up or down trends. Overall I think the economy is flat and the market keeps reaching new highs.
 

firegiver

Heisman
Sep 10, 2007
71,750
17,606
113
I was laid off from Raytheon in 2023 after 24 years of service. Totally caught me by surprise …. 24 years and I was gone in 6 minutes.

that same year, Raytheon posted record profits and paid out record executive bonuses. Since my lay off there have been 3 more rounds … I. 2024 Raytheon profits, again, broke records.
Publicly traded companies have a lawful obligation to increase profits for their shareholders. It's why black rock sued United Health because they paid out too many claims. Because **** people, we trying to make money.
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
19,727
18,085
113
Publicly traded companies have a lawful obligation to increase profits for their shareholders. It's why black rock sued United Health because they paid out too many claims. Because **** people, we trying to make money.
You get better results when people try to make money.
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
19,727
18,085
113
Conclusion: The big difference between ADP and NFP stems from their distinct data sources (payroll vs. surveys), scope (private vs. private + public), measurement methods (transactional vs. reference week), and sectoral coverage. Recent gaps, like June 2025’s, highlight sectoral divergences (e.g., healthcare) and methodological limits. While ADP offers a timely private-sector snapshot, NFP’s broader scope makes it the preferred market mover, though both should be interpreted cautiously due to their limitations.
 
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fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
19,727
18,085
113
The other piece of the puzzle is inflation. Inflation seems in check right now, hovering around the 2% target.

However, if the OBBB passes i think that puts upwards pressure on inflation and will make it even harder to lower rates. Right now the market is predicting rate cuts later this year. To me, this means equity prices need to come down. The Buffet indicator is at all time highs right now too.




 

PAWrocka

Heisman
Nov 3, 2008
20,735
27,774
103
Publicly traded companies have a lawful obligation to increase profits for their shareholders. It's why black rock sued United Health because they paid out too many claims. Because **** people, we trying to make money.
Yup … one thing I absolutely could get on board with the Dems on is better protections for workers like they have in Europe (TUPE, etc) I’m not talking about the Marxist/Communist wet dreams of workers owning the means of production BUUUUUUUUT there is just something wrong with record profits, recording executive salaries and bonuses, all the while wages haven’t kept pace with the rate of inflation, and conducting massive layoffs.

I take my shots at GenZ and young Millennials, but … their approach to their careers and how they treat employers??? Especially corporate employers????? … they ain’t wrong ….

my old GenX *** believed the lie that if I was loyal to the company, that if I worked hard, took on additional responsibilities, that I would be rewarded and the company would be loyal to me. 24 years … only professional job I ever had … worked my way up … never had a bad review … numerous promotions and awards. Specifically recognized at all hands town halls. Travelled the world, sometimes with only a day notice … I honestly thought the day that I retired, that a luncheon would be held, coworkers would congratulate me, I’d get some lame clock to put on my mantle … and I’d give some speech … thanking the company for all they did for me ……. NOPE …….. I was gone in 6 minutes, all network access terminated within 9 minutes … didn’t even get the opportunity to write a farewell email …..

As it turned out, the layoff was the best thing to happen to me in my professional career. Ended up in a much better place, more money, MUCH better work/life balance … and just the realization that I had been taken advantage of and GROSSLY underpaid for at least the last 10 years.

I’m thankful for the opportunities Raytheon presented me … like I said, I got to travel … A LOT … I got to see the world, experience other cultures, expand my world view, and establish personal and professional relationships that will last a lifetime…

but … ya …much much much happier now and I’ll do my darndest to never work for a publicly traded company or one that is owned by private equity ever again.
 

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
3,364
2,631
113
Look at the revisions, they were positive! How many positive revisions were there under the Biden admin?
Did you look at the breakdown of where most of the jobs added were. Most were not in the private sector.