IDK about that, he's going to make $. Top 20 player efficiency rating in the B1G. Not sure I'd go above $1M for him at RU, but he very well may be worth more than that to a team playing for something.
Keepers for next year
- Thread starter RUdepressed
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Simple, at that money they would be pursuing a much more rounded player at the position.
First of all, there’s very limited data on how well he “creates for others”. He leads our team, a bad one, in assists, but the surrounding cast to execute on his passes is very limited just as it was (on an even lower scale) at NJIT. He’s a guard, so rebounding numbers are not relevant.
The bottom line is it’s unlikely there will be 20+ double digit scorers entering the portal from high major conferences and if he were to enter his PPG average would likely be the highest of all of them on top 20 average efficiency. And his defense, while not spectacular grades out about net neutral. This isn’t a debate of how much he ends up playing / producing on another roster. There’s no way of knowing that although it seems safe to assume the programs that he would be interested in and the ones likely to go after him the hardest would be ones that play more of an ISO style that would best utilize him. The point is, there are 70+ high majors - there’s basically no chance that 10+ wouldn’t be bidding on him if he chooses to enter the portal.
Not necessarily.
Player X: 9ppg, 3apg
Player Y: 16ppg, 1apg
If the role just needs scoring then clearly Player Y would clearly be better fit for that role.
If the team already has a facilitator PG/backup then they wouldn't necessarily need a more rounded player off the bench.
Pike is coaching for his job. I’d say that’s “playing for something”.
The bottom line is offense costs more than defense and is more objective to define. For this reason, knowing what we already know about the price tags associated with the 2025 portal cycle, it’s pretty safe to assume Pike is not landing any high major portal kid with proven offensive marketability for under 1.3M minimum. Again, the student athlete also has to chose Rutgers over other bids. This is where there is a lot of risk of landing in last year’s no man’s land again if you don’t secure Tariq early. Since the most highly desirable portal kids aren’t choosing RU even if we overpay - the question then becomes, at what level player does this consideration die out and RU becomes a serious contender. Buchanan was probably offered the most of any of our portal pic ups and he was less concerned about money than most. We don’t actually even know that the reason we don’t have any more expensive players was really about money. Maybe we didn’t really intend to go for quantity vs quality but we, couldn’t even get in the conversation with anyone worth 1M because they all had offers from more desirable programs.
And again - it’s not even accurate to conclude he’s not “well rounded”. He didn’t play point most of the season and yet he leads the team in assists. Derek averaged the same number of assists as he’s averaging in 2023-24 and he had Cliff and Mag to pass to down low. That team was historically bad at offense mostly because the guards couldn’t finish lay ups (alarmingly bad even at uncontested ones). But considering how many assists Paul had in to Cliff, this is a fair comparison as Simpson had the same target. Tariq doesn’t have that. And no, he’s not exactly surrounded by sharp shooters either. Give Tariq a front court target and he’ll get more assists. As a scorer - it doesn’t get more well rounded than Tariq - he scores the ball every which way. Hes not a great rebounder but thats not a metric that’s as heavily considered in guards.
I think no matter who we go after that has true proven value - we’re going to have to pay a pretty penny for it. Tariq we probably don’t have to be the highest bidder, but for anyone truly desirable in the portal we probably not only have to be tops but the differential between our offer and the better programs has to be significant enough to make up for the uncertainty around the current state of our program especially now that Pike’s one year life line is out in the open. It pretty much leaves Pike no choice but to start with negotiating Tariq and our center. He won’t have to overpay the market for Tariq, at least so from that perspective he’ll be saving va what it would cost him to land another proven scoring guard. If it’s true we reall have 10M he’ll have a punchers chance. If he gets a center and Tariq for 3.2M and budgets another 2.8M to keep 5-6 more from the current roster putting us at 6M. So now we have 7-8 spots filled and 4M to work with. I think aim to spend 2.5 M of it on a high major forward who plays some defense and can handle the ball and also a lower level forward who was productive. Ideally one would be a decent ball handler. If the frosh are getting 500K combined that’d still leave us with 1M for refinements and to take a couple chances on lower level guys.
I don't think we have to worry about Kaden Powers.
Doing a search, 5 players made this post. Kaden, Dortch, Ware, Nwuli, and.Buchanan. Not sure what it means.
Doing a search, 5 players made this post. Kaden, Dortch, Ware, Nwuli, and.Buchanan. Not sure what it means.
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Hes going to be one of the highest scoring players available if he chooses to be in the portal. He isnt Tyson Acuff
It means they are carrying out their responsibilities as part of their deal which hasnt been fully paid yet
Let’s say UConn wanted Tariq, and they bring him in to be a 6th man spark plug, instant scorer off the bench. If they have the NIL resources they will pay 7 figures to perform this role. Even when there was less money out there in the college hoops NIL world back when Cliff transferred, he supposedly got paid $1 Mil to play a minor role getting 19 minutes per game at Alabama. Now, there is even more NIL funding available to programs. If these programs have money they don’t care how much they are paying a player just to perform a role. We at Rutgers think about how much people off the bench get paid performing smaller roles because we have such A LIMITED BUDGET. Other programs can eat expensive meals every night while we debate whether we can have Mickey D’s or Chik-Fil-A. Rich basketball program problems versus poor basketball programs. They have the luxury of blowing money on players who may or may not even end up playing a significant role. We don’t have that luxury.
if Pikes cannot keep Francis, he is deep **** next year for the reasons you mentioned...no high level portal player is coming here so its another risk where you take a guy similar to francis which is a crapshoot or a guy averaged 10 pts in the A10 and hope he can level up
Comparing Cliff who played a premium position to Francis is apples and oranges. Bigs always get paid way more.
Yes - bigs get paid more because there are less of them, but offense is more expensive than defense. 17.6 ppg (pushing 18 after tonight) is a big deal.
No one other than frqncis should be considered to be a starter next year. He is the only one that should get consideration. If anyone else is a starter by January there’s a problem
Grant had five consecutive shots where he didn’t draw the rim. I’m not sure I’ve seen that before.
Grant had five consecutive shots where he didn’t draw the rim. I’m not sure I’ve seen that before.
Yeah I just can’t understand how some aren’t grasping this.
No “consideration” is needed. Francis should be paid whatever the going rate is to be a starting guard. We will not be landing someone (or a combination of someones for the backcourts) with comparable proven ability. His height is something Pike simply has to recruit around on a one year horizon. Fail at retaining him and we’re likely in trouble.
There’s no question it’s an uphill battle for Pike, but Francis simply provided an unexpected glimmer of light cracking through the previously trending black hole to all time rock bottom that Pike was heading on. Because we have Francis, our current team can score. We’re nothing special on offense, but we’re also not historically bad. While high major offensive skills are next to impossible for a program like RU to buy in the portal, it’s at least realistic to hope that we might might able to buy offensive rebounding and defense at our positions of biggest need. Does that translate into NCAAs? As BAC said - unfortunately the most probable outcome is that it would translate to 16/17ish wins and then Zinn’s first big decision would await. But even still, just the fact that the expected forecast could be within striking distance of bubble level if the portal cycle is managed properly is a much much better position than anyone could’ve reasonably hoped for based on last off season and it’s almost entirely because of how TF turned out. No TF and we’re back on track for ground zero IMO.
Powers looked pretty good last few minutes last night. John Battle scored two points a game as a frosh and 4 years later in NBA. most of you guys would want him gone after his freshman year. Richie writes all the time Mark has one foot out the door. RACemUP you made my point, thank you.
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Yes and no. Powers has been up and down all season. Streaky type of scorer. Out of position a lot of D but I expect that would improve. He’s not someone you feel confident penciling in and paying to be your starter but rather a kid you might invest a modest premium above market high major back up guard rate. The bottom line is he’s a kid with upside potential but the “premium” you pay would be on a base of what a 16 mpg shooting guard averaging 35.4% / 32.9% efficiency on the season (albeit notably improved in the second half - but still. That’s baked in to the premium). Before considering the premium, the “starting point” for Powers’ paper metrics couldn’t be more than 300k. Therefore, I don’t see a world where he’s worth anything close to the 500-750k or higher numbers some folks are throwing out. That’d be nuts.
Lino is a freshman who flashes talent
The tv sportscaster on yesterdays game thinks he is the quickest player in league, or close to it
Yes, he,shot badly early on, but he is getting better and will get better
Mark this down, fans will regret his leaving in a couple of years
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The point is some kids do make year over year strides. Some kids are able to do what Tariq did and make a jump up from from a terrible low major and improve their efficiency. And still others develop into productive players over several years after not having much impact as frosh.
But bottomline - none of these outcomes are the statistical average “expectation” of these players year over year. Usually these starting points translate into outcomes like Noah F, Dercack, J Mike, Acuff, Dylan Grant (soph), and so on. Each of these guys had different levels of role player success at but nothing close to what Tariq provided on offense this season. If Tariq leaves - our path yet again is to “hope” that players like the above are brought in and/or frosh role players take major development steps which could happen but should not be the expected outcome.
We've discussed aplenty, and mostly agree, but if Francis leaves do you think Pike can build a team that would rank in the top 250 in offensive efficiency?
He has a headiness and fearlessness as a freshmen most dont have. Easily the best all around game of our freshmen . His shot starting to fall as well. We have no player that can drive to the hoop like him
Maybe his recent flurry of improved play causes 2nd thoughts of staying because it would be a shame to lose this potential
You've had a hard on for Powers all year, which surprises me.
He's a frosh, thrown into a starting role on a team with no real offensive philosophy or game plan.
He's got a nice stroke, and is an excellent passer, especially the pocket pass on the pick and role. Give him some teammates who can handle a pass and he's a 4/5 assist per game guard who can hit the open 3.
His defense has also improved from the beginning of the year.
I would also like to keep Nwuli, he reminds me a lot of Mag his freshman year ( who was also ridiculed on this board
) he's raw, but put 15lbs on his frame and he's a solid 3/4 backup next year and has a good chance to be a productive starter in years 3/4. Kid has a nice stroke from the outside and FT line and has 100 times more guts that Grant underneath.How could you watch yesterday's game and have the opinion you don't want Powers?
Great analogy with Battle. I really like Powers all around game. He has great form on his jumper, plays hard, good defender for a freshman
Because we are trying to make the ncaa tourney
Lino > Powers.
In the old world Powers is a guy brought along year by year where as a junior and senior he is a starter in a key role. Unfortunately in NIL we need an immediate contributor less one dimensional than Powers seems to be right now. Lino has a diversity to his game. Sure if we arent paying much at all for Powers I suppose he can stay but are we keeping all the guards. I prefer Lino
Remember everyone was so high on Grant too after last year even though much of his success had to do with defenses not really focusing on him
Lino > Powers.
In the old world Powers is a guy brought along year by year where as a junior and senior he is a starter in a key role. Unfortunately in NIL we need an immediate contributor less one dimensional than Powers seems to be right now. Lino has a diversity to his game. Sure if we arent paying much at all for Powers I suppose he can stay but are we keeping all the guards. I prefer Lino
Remember everyone was so high on Grant too after last year even though much of his success had to do with defenses not really focusing on him
Maybe - but so what? Ken Pom currently says we rank 131 on offense while the D isn’t even in the top 150. You understand that there is ZERO chance of a Pike coached team making the NCAAs without a top 75 defense, correct? And that there is a 10 fold better chance of Pike elevating the D to top 50 if that is his primary and targeted priority in the portal. We made the NCAAs (barely but still made it) with an offense that ranked 96th. If we improve just offensive rebounding and get a few more transition baskets - nothing else - we could conceivably be in striking distance of that. With Tariq. Without him? Maybe we’re not 298th like 2023-24 but we’ll have no choice but to also shop offense so rest assured the D wouldn’t be near 5th ranked either.
Again - context is really needed. This team ranks better on offense than Cam Spencer’s team! Going into the season just the thought of that would’ve been hysterical. It’s all Tariq.
With Powers, I just don’t think there’ll be much of a market for a sub-200 pound SG shooting 35% from the floor. I agree he probably shouldn’t be a priority in retention, but I think we could also keep him without spending a bunch.
So then why would Rutgers want him?
What role would he be serving?
Obviously not a starter.
Is he one of the 1st guys off the bench?
Or are you keeping him as the 10th roster spot?
If he's the 6th or 7th guy then why wouldn't we bring in a better player who could contribute?
We'll have some money - not a lot but we likely wont have to settle for minimum money guys for key roles.
Powers started a good number of games this year...if he can understand his role is likely as a 8th/9th player im fine with that. Tariq will start along with a combo guard. Id like Lino as that 6th/7th man off the bench but he may want to be a starter elsewhere. The reality is most of the current team besides Tariq will be coming off the bench and likely minutes will be cut across the board. Buchanan has a shot at starting and is workable. Some of our fanbase seems to think we have a core group that is stong and just needs a couple of pieces...those pieces will be major upgrades and hard to get but they will be waaaay better than what he have. TQ is the big question mark. If he leaves we are in big big big trouble. Many of us were wrong on him and he exceeded even optimists expectations. He is going to command at least $1.5 from RU if not more. Without him this year this team would not have double digit wins and we would sit in last in the Big 10. The rest of the team just does not have talent currently to get where we want and we dont have 2-3 years to develop. Its plug and play.
You could still have that.
But two circumstances:
1. You cant have 4 "developmental" guys on the roster. We need to attempt to win and be competitive every year. This isnt NJIT.
2. The "developmental" guy(s) needs to be the 10th or 11th roster spot and paid as such - near minimal money.
Rutgers won't have the money to waste on "developmental" guys who won't be key contributors to winning. All our money needs to go towards on court immediate production.
Just like this past off season (I believe you said we would have all these transition baskets so the lack of half court offense and shooting wouldnt be a problem), I believe you are underrating the expected offensive improvement.
This year was supposed to be better offense (because we were going to run all the time) and easily better defense.
In my head, you invest most heavily in eight key rotation players (including Tariq and Lino if we can keep them) and then bring on Kaden in a marginal, middle bench role. If he makes a tangible sophomore jump, he'll play a key role, and otherwise, there's a serviceable rotation ahead of him.
I’m hearing we r allegedly hoping for 8-10 million category for Nil and she is working hard to finalize some other deals. The coaches should have enough money the following year to pay out more if all goes as planned. We are allegedly looking for more corporate sponsors. Think they should reach out to Ackman up in Connecticut. He owns a huge hedge fund and donates to many colleges.
Team is 254th in offensive efficiency and 304th or something in scoring per game. We can't get much worse. Yes, we are more efficient than the Cam team, and every Pike team except last year, BUT the entire country is more efficient now than then. We need two way players all over. Even with Francis we aren't good offensively. We need him to improve on D and every other spot to improve at both ends.
You can't have a team with 7 freshman and one senior that isn't even a major caliber player. Team needs to be older. Freshman becoming soph's help with that. With our financials, probably player 9 down need to be cheap developmental.