Kids Covid Vaccine

[HagginHall1999]

Do you realize for 99.7% of the population prior to the vaccine it was also the flu?

Do you realize how stupid that sounds?

Since 2009 there have been something like 550k deaths in US due to the flu (and that is taking high estimates).

Since January of '20 there have been 610k deaths in US due to COVID. That would be pacing 6m deaths in a dedcade. Even if you estimate 50% of those deaths were due to an underlying condition and the deceased just had COVID too that would still be 300k deaths in 1.5 years.

It isn't even close to the same thing.

I'm not for mandating vaccines but I'm also not for disinformation and Facebook gossip.

 

[Crums Bald Spot]

Do you realize how stupid that sounds?

Since 2009 there have been something like 550k deaths in US due to the flu (and that is taking high estimates).

Since January of '20 there have been 610k deaths in US due to COVID. That would be pacing 6m deaths in a dedcade. Even if you estimate 50% of those deaths were due to an underlying condition and the deceased just had COVID too that would still be 300k deaths in 1.5 years.

It isn't even close to the same thing.

I'm not for mandating vaccines but I'm also not for disinformation and Facebook gossip.

You are not comprehending what I posted. 99.7% of us are not going to die. Hence, the comparison to the flu.

Got it now?

 

[gracetoyou]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ti...on-vaccines-potency-against-delta-strain/amp/

 

[SDC8888]

The data from Israel suggests that vaccinations in January are only 15% effective, February 20% effective, at preventing symptomatic cases and transmission.

That's no better than unvaccinated as time passes, really. The point I was making which they failed to grasp, is that if you become symptomatic and falsely believe you are immune after vaccination, you are going to spread it much more than someone who wasn't and isolated with symptoms.

"My symptoms seemed exactly like a cold," Young said. "If we hadn't known about my daughter's counselor testing positive, we never would have assumed it was COVID. We never would've gotten tested. And we would have gone out into the world."

 

[pitinoshairplugs]

The data from Israel suggests that vaccinations in January are only 15% effective, February 20% effective, at preventing symptomatic cases and transmission.

That's no better than unvaccinated as time passes, really. The point I was making which they failed to grasp, is that if you become symptomatic and falsely believe you are immune after vaccination, you are going to spread it much more than someone who wasn't and isolated with symptoms.

"My symptoms seemed exactly like a cold," Young said. "If we hadn't known about my daughter's counselor testing positive, we never would have assumed it was COVID. We never would've gotten tested. And we would have gone out into the world."

That's no better than unvaccinated as time passes, really. This statement is incorrect.

They go into pretty good detail about why it appears to be less effective if given back in January.

A. It looks like Pfizer wears off a little sooner than the others.
B. Those who got it first were the most at risk and the most likely for unfavorable results if infected. So the fact that those who are so "at risk" and were vaccinated in January and February are staying out of the hospital and not dying, compared to what we saw before the vaccines, it's still a HUGE success. The people getting hospitalized today if they've been vaccinated are the same as before. Old and very sick. Except now they are MUCH MUCH MUCH less likely to die. They're also less likely to go to the hospital. We've still got a small control group to compare these people to and it shows that the vaccine is very effective in keeping those at risk out of the hospital. Those who didn't get vaccinated who are "at risk" are having much worse outcomes.

The fact that vaccinated people can transmit the disease is even more of a reason for everybody to get the shot. (not advocating mandate).

 

[SDC8888]

It's not incorrect at all. If after 6 months it's only 15% effective at preventing you from getting symptomatic illness, then it's not really all that helpful at preventing the spread of the disease at that point.

It is especially unhelpful if those people go about their lives when symptomatic when they otherwise would've got tested and isolated.

I'm not talking about serious disease; you need to get vaccinated if you are concerned about that. I'm also not saying that more vaccinated people doesn't reduce the overall transmissibility of the virus at the population level, all things being equal.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

You are not comprehending what I posted. 99.7% of us are not going to die. Hence, the comparison to the flu.

Got it now?

99.7% would imply 60% of the US population was infected. That's higher than any plausible estimate. It's also contradicted by jurisdictions that have had 0.3% of their entire population die of covid (NJ for instance).

You also ignore the 3 million people who've been hospitalized. Flu doesnt do that.

 

[gobigbluebell]

Just to recap...

1. vaccine doesn't stop transmission
2. masks don't stop transmission
3. the delta variant is rapidly spreading because of the unvaxxed mask-deniers...

Science taught me this. I trust the science.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

Doesn't necessarily imply that at all RE: CFR/IFR, if certain age cohorts were hit with higher infection rates.

2.6% of the population over 85 died with covid. 90% of the nursing home population were infected with coronavirus. The CFR for these age ranges (normal of LTC) is 8-15% in healthy, add in comorbidities that accompany LTC residents and the CFR gets to as high as 33%.

30% of US deaths, but 0.9% of the population.

.1% of the population in NJ that died with Covid were in long term care.


I highly, highly doubt that if 90% of elementary schools were hit with infection, that we'd accept it to screw the CFR/IFR into an extremely low amount.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

Point is if 0.3% of the entire population has died, that puts a lower bound of 0.3% on IFR. If 0.3% of the population died and 100% of the population was infected, IFR is 0.3%. It can't be lower, it can only be higher.

 

[SDC8888]

Not if the remaining population doesn't share the same characteristics.

That's the fundamental logical error. The not vaccinated population now is not the same as the pre-pandemic not vaccinated population.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

Not if the remaining population doesn't share the same characteristics.

That's the fundamental logical error. The not vaccinated population now is not the same as the pre-pandemic not vaccinated population.

Most people also have immunity from either vaccination or infection, that'll change it too. But in the immunologically naive population we had when covid arrived, IFR is at minimum 0.3%.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

Most people also have immunity from either vaccination or infection, that'll change it too. But in the immunologically naive population we had when covid arrived, IFR is at minimum 0.3%.

This is still incorrect. IFR is for the disease, not for a small subset of a single population.

Why would NJ being at 0.3% of population (9.4M) dying with coronavirus set the minimum? Ghana at 30.4M people has seen 0.0026% of population die…India at 1.4B people has seen 0.03% of population deaths…

Not seeing how NJ gets to set the standard…age stratification, avg ages in population with set the general IFR.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

Well, I'd assume NJ's demographics are closer to other US states than Ghana is, for starters.

 

[LowerLevelSeatA]

Some say the below is saying previous testing did not distinguish between flu and Covid. CDC is requesting that by Dec 2021 new testing mechanisms are used that do distinguish between flu and Vovid. Is this how you all interpret the CDC announcement below?

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/...-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html

 

[SDC8888]

Most people also have immunity from either vaccination or infection, that'll change it too. But in the immunologically naive population we had when covid arrived, IFR is at minimum 0.3%.

Answer me this and answer it honestly.

Are you being deliberately deceptive or just deliberately obtuse of the point I made to you? That seems to be a recurring theme here.

He is absolutely correct to say 99.7% of the not vaccinated American population today would not die should they contract the virus.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

Answer me this and answer it honestly.

Are you being deliberately deceptive or just ignorant of the point I made to you? That seems to be a recurring theme here.

He is absolutely correct to say 99.7% of the not vaccinated American population today would not die should they contract the virus.

You're talking about a different thing than I'm talking about. I'm responding to the statement "Do you realize for 99.7% of the population prior to the vaccine it was also the flu?" I'm responding to the same diminutizing of covid's risk that people have been doing for over a year now.

Yes, the IFR among still-unvaccinated people will be lower because the unvaccinated population skews younger, and has a substantial degree of infection-derived immunity. This is why I'm not as worried about rising case levels. The people catching it now are much less at risk than the people catching it in December.

 

[pitinoshairplugs]

It's not incorrect at all. If after 6 months it's only 15% effective at preventing you from getting symptomatic illness, then it's not really all that helpful at preventing the spread of the disease at that point.

It is especially unhelpful if those people go about their lives when symptomatic when they otherwise would've got tested and isolated.

I'm not talking about serious disease; you need to get vaccinated if you are concerned about that. I'm also not saying that more vaccinated people doesn't reduce the overall transmissibility of the virus at the population level, all things being equal.

Again, you are wrong. Your direct quote was that it's "no better than unvaccinated". That's no better than unvaccinated as time passes, really. It's very different. You're almost certain to not die even if you are old and have all of the issues people who were dying and being hospitalized had if you have been fully vaccinated.

All that to say, I'd say we will have booster shots in the next 90 days for those who were vaccinated last winter. And within 120 days for everybody. and that's a good thing.

 

[SDC8888]

You're talking about a different thing than I'm talking about. I'm responding to the statement "Do you realize for 99.7% of the population prior to the vaccine it was also the flu?" I'm responding to the same diminutizing of covid's risk that people have been doing for over a year now.

Yes, the IFR among still-unvaccinated people will be lower because the unvaccinated population skews younger, and has a substantial degree of infection-derived immunity. This is why I'm not as worried about rising case levels. The people catching it now are much less at risk than the people catching it in December.

Ok, that's fair enough and accurate, we were talking about different things.

Again, you are wrong. Your direct quote was that it's "no better than unvaccinated". That's no better than unvaccinated as time passes, really. It's very different. You're almost certain to not die even if you are old and have all of the issues people who were dying and being hospitalized had.

Not wrong, I just failed to reiterate that I am only talking about current infections today being passed on. That's all I've been talking about, namely, the so-called slim chance isn't that slim. If you are symptomatic, you should isolate and get tested. I have never implied that the vaccines do not help protect from serious illness, or that one shouldn't take the virus seriously.

 

[pitinoshairplugs]

Ok, that's fair enough and accurate, we were talking about different things.




Not wrong, I just failed to reiterate that I am only talking about current infections today being passed on. That's all I've been talking about, namely, the so-called slim chance isn't that slim. If you are symptomatic, you should isolate and get tested. I have never implied that the vaccines do not help protect from serious illness, or that one shouldn't take the virus seriously.

Your statement was factually incorrect.

 

[SDC8888]

Your statement was factually incorrect.

No, your interpretation was wrong.

The data from Israel suggests that vaccinations in January are only 15% effective, February 20% effective, at preventing symptomatic cases and transmission.

That's no better than unvaccinated as time passes, really.

The "That" there refers to the data, effectiveness for transmission, not fatality rate.

 

[pitinoshairplugs]

No, your interpretation was wrong.

The data from Israel suggests that vaccinations in January are only 15% effective, February 20% effective, at preventing symptomatic cases and transmission.

That's no better than unvaccinated as time passes, really.

The "That" there refers to the data, effectiveness for transmission, not fatality rate.

15-20% effective at stopping transmission means that it's 15-20% more effective than not being vaccinated. While not 95% or even 60%, it's still better than 0%.


I understand what you're saying, but in the real world, the only thing that matters with covid is making it "not severe". Meaning, keeps you out of the hospital. if we can achieve that (we have if people will get the shot) this thing is over.

Anti- vaxers (not you) implying that the vaccines aren't good/they were misled because people can still get the virus are simply grasping for any straw to make the vaccine look bad. It's pointless and silly to argue about that.

Furthermore, as we progress, they will refine the boosters to deal with the new strains/variants.

 

[KingOfBBN]

15-20% effective at stopping transmission means that it's 15-20% more effective than not being vaccinated. While not 95% or even 60%, it's still better than 0%.


I understand what you're saying, but in the real world, the only thing that matters with covid is making it "not severe". Meaning, keeps you out of the hospital. if we can achieve that (we have if people will get the shot) this thing is over.

Anti- vaxers (not you) implying that the vaccines aren't good/they were misled because people can still get the virus are simply grasping for any straw to make the vaccine look bad. It's pointless and silly to argue about that.

Furthermore, as we progress, they will refine the boosters to deal with the new strains/variants.

Lol at the pro rushed vaccine crowd calling someone else “misled.”

If you think the government and Big Pharma give a single **** about your safety and health, you’re delusional.

 

[gracetoyou]

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/loca...es-reported-in-provincetown-outbreak/2440384/

"Cases among Massachusetts residents are found to be predominantly symptomatic (71%), with 69% of affected individuals reported to be fully vaccinated,"


Again, this is why any mandates for this vaccine are stupid! 69%!!!!!!! They are getting it & transmitting it.

Now the vaccine is doing its job in keeping those fully vaccinated from severe sickness but did not keep them from getting DELTA COVID or from transmitting it.

The vaccine is good but the unvaccinated are not to be treated like COVID is all due to them.

 

[pitinoshairplugs]

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/loca...es-reported-in-provincetown-outbreak/2440384/

"Cases among Massachusetts residents are found to be predominantly symptomatic (71%), with 69% of affected individuals reported to be fully vaccinated,"


Again, this is why any mandates for this vaccine are stupid! 69%!!!!!!! They are getting it & transmitting it.

Now the vaccine is doing its job in keeping those fully vaccinated from severe sickness but did not keep them from getting DELTA COVID or from transmitting it.

The vaccine is good but the unvaccinated are not to be treated like COVID is all due to them.

The negative issues associated with covid. Namely, hospitalization and death are due to people not getting vaccinated.

 

[gracetoyou]

The negative issues associated with covid. Namely, hospitalization and death are due to people not getting vaccinated.

Exactly but that does not affect a vaccinated person. And not everyone...in fact most...unvaccinated will not be hospitalized, just like before we ever had a vaccine.

Why the mandate talk?? If you're old or have severe health issues then by all means get the vaccine. There's no logical reason to MANDATE this vaccine on those who are younger, healthy. The odds are overwhelming on their side. The unvaccinated are not endangering society just themselves...with very small odds.

 

[Crums Bald Spot]

99.7% would imply 60% of the US population was infected. That's higher than any plausible estimate. It's also contradicted by jurisdictions that have had 0.3% of their entire population die of covid (NJ for instance).

You also ignore the 3 million people who've been hospitalized. Flu doesnt do that.

Again, The vast majority of people who died were either elderly or had multiple comorbidities. You can mince words and twist numbers to believe what you want but to someone like myself and 99% of the United States, covid is akin to a bad flu season.

 

[Blue_2_the_bone_rivals]

Do you realize for 99.7% of the population prior to the vaccine it was also the flu?

The flu? Heck, I’ve had colds that were worse. The flu knocks me down. Covid was more of an aggravation. Still worked my garden and cut grass, washed the house, and did several other things during my 10 days off. Seems like the older and worse shape people are in, the more it knocks them. Wife only lost smell. My kids didn’t even know they were sick. Never had a single symptom.

 

[gracetoyou]

Wow...recent study shows those who've had COVID have much longer lasting immunity than previously thought...and against more than one variant.

EDIT: It's undergoing peer-review right now.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.19.21255739v2

 

[JStaff21]

The flu? Heck, I’ve had colds that were worse. The flu knocks me down. Covid was more of an aggravation. Still worked my garden and cut grass, washed the house, and did several other things during my 10 days off. Seems like the older and worse shape people are in, the more it knocks them. Wife only lost smell. My kids didn’t even know they were sick. Never had a single symptom.

My wife lost smell and taste but that was it. If not for that and my 101 fever that lasted for a little over 24 hours, we’d never known we had it. As you said, I had the flu a few years ago and was down for near a week. I get sinus infections that were worse than what I experienced with covid.

 

[LowerLevelSeatA]

I attended the Fayette County School board meeting tonight. Packed room and people in overflow room. No mask required in the building and board members and Superintendent sat in front of the room with masks off. Yet they are still trying to decide if they are going to require kids in schools to wear masks for 7 hours a day. Also got an email that to enter our middle school, a mask must be worn, yet at the Fayette County School board building masks are optional. Again, I don’t get it. I will keep fighting for my kids.

 

[LowerLevelSeatA]

More interesting developments. Tape was found from Superintendent Liggins public interview forum when he was trying to get the job where he was asked about mandatory masking and vaccinations. Here is his answer you can see at the 29 min 4 second mark. Will be interesting to see if he folds to governor/union pressure.
"As for mandating it for anyone, I don't think I would go that far as to do that nor make a recommendation to the board of ed. to make that happen. But I don't think anyone should be discredited for choosing to wear one or discredited for how how they decided to or not to get the vaccine."

 

[gobigbluebell]

Well, he got the job, so I trust his opinion is now the “correct” one.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

Again, The vast majority of people who died were either elderly or had multiple comorbidities. You can mince words and twist numbers to believe what you want but to someone like myself and 99% of the United States, covid is akin to a bad flu season.

More than one percent of the population has been hospitalized. My guess was low - as of April CDC had estimated 5 million hospitalizations out of 115 million infections. Is it twisting numbers and mincing words to point out that 5 out if 115 is quite a bit larger than 1%?

 

[Bill Derington]

More than one percent of the population has been hospitalized. My guess was low - as of April CDC had estimated 5 million hospitalizations out of 115 million infections. Is it twisting numbers and mincing words to point out that 5 out if 115 is quite a bit larger than 1%?

Here is my question, if 115 million people had been infected in April that were actually tested, its probably safe to say another 30 million werent tested and had it then. Thats roughly half the country in April, add another 10-20 million since. Thats close to 200 million people, why isn't their immunity taken into account with the vaccines?

Either the tests weren't accurate, or including them into the vaccine totals improves the vaccine efficacy. If say 25% of the vaccinated previously had covid, they aren't going to be reinfected, it just seems like an unscientific way to push for vaccinations.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

Here is my question, if 115 million people had been infected in April that were actually tested, its probably safe to say another 30 million werent tested and had it then. Thats roughly half the country in April, add another 10-20 million since. Thats close to 200 million people, why isn't their immunity taken into account with the vaccines?

Either the tests weren't accurate, or including them into the vaccine totals improves the vaccine efficacy. If say 25% of the vaccinated previously had covid, they aren't going to be reinfected, it just seems like an unscientific way to push for vaccinations.

Only ~35 million have actually tested positive. The 115M by April included the estimated infections that hadn't been tested. That was 35% of the population. I do think that the wave we're seeing now (which probably stays regional) and the wave we see in fall, brings us up to a high enough fraction of people infected to couple with the fraction vaccinated to pretty much put us out of epidemic level and into endemic level. In places with high vaccination, the fall wave likely isn't even very bad and has lower hospitalization levels and MUCH lower death levels, like we're seeing in the UK and the Netherlands. Could be quite bad in places with very low vax levels.

 

[Bill Derington]

Only ~35 million have actually tested positive. The 115M by April included the estimated infections that hadn't been tested. That was 35% of the population. I do think that the wave we're seeing now (which probably stays regional) and the wave we see in fall, brings us up to a high enough fraction of people infected to couple with the fraction vaccinated to pretty much put us out of epidemic level and into endemic level. In places with high vaccination, the fall wave likely isn't even very bad and has lower hospitalization levels and MUCH lower death levels, like we're seeing in the UK and the Netherlands. Could be quite bad in places with very low vax levels.

Isn't pushing for everyone getting vaxxed, even the prior infected diluting the true numbers of vaccines efficacy?

It wouldn't be a big deal if the Govt wasn't using the vaccinated % as a Rep/Dem divide, or on mandating masks, and possibly businesses.

 

[Crums Bald Spot]

More than one percent of the population has been hospitalized. My guess was low - as of April CDC had estimated 5 million hospitalizations out of 115 million infections. Is it twisting numbers and mincing words to point out that 5 out if 115 is quite a bit larger than 1%?

Sounds like a bad flu for most of us.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

Sounds like a bad flu for most of us.

Given those numbers (5 million hospitalizations out of 115 million infections) and the relative risk based on age, people in their 40s who catch covid have about the same chance of ending up in the hospital as they do of rolling snake eyes on one roll of two dice. That's much worse odds than flu, and much worse odds than I'd choose to play with.

 

[BlueVelvetFog]

It’s possible that the vaccine will help people live to be 150 yrs old. We’ve never accomplished that—so let’s assume THAT is an unknown benefit