as someone living in DC and having gone to nats games for 5 years now, has developed into a fan, i agree with the decision.
first of all a pitcher's elbow ain't a sprained ankle or even a sprain knee or pulled muscle. if you push it and play on those kinda injuries and the injury worses, you end up sitting out awhile or having surgery and eventually will be back to 100%. if strasburg blows out his elbow again, you are without him another full season + AND even then it's only around a 20-30% chance he returns to be a MLB pitcher after a 2nd TJ surgery. we are talking career threatening injuries, not an injury that can be healed at near 100% guarantee with surgery and rehab.
second, strasburg has thrown a total of less than 100 MLB innings between 2010 and 2011. it's not like he was adam wainwright with multiple 200+ inning seasons under his belt before tommy john surgery.
third, the nats are built for an extended period of contention. the ntire young core is under team control for several more years. gio, zimmermann, and werth have long term deals. morse and laroche are signed through 2013. among the key parts, only edwin jackson and tyler clippard are free agents after this year. and clippard will be replaced by storen after he likely signs a big $$ deal to close elsewhere last year. storen was a pretty solid closer last year if yall remember right, but was hurt to start the year this year and clippard eventually took the job and ran with it. obviously there is no guarantee for future contention, but this ain't the marlins type franchise, this team is built like the rangers or the cardinals or the braves or any of the other franchises who are regular contenders through a strong farm system.
fourth, there is no guaranteee that the nats win it all this year even with strasburg. can you imagine the fallout if strasburg blew out his arm again this fall or early next year and the nats didn't win it??
fifth, the nats stilla re good enough without strasburg to win it all. gio and zimmerman are as good of a 1-2 combo as anyone in baseball, and edwin jackson is an above avg SP3. and the nats have the best bullpen.
sixth, james andrews and other docotrs recomemend that the OFFSEASON rest of a good solid 5 months is just as important as limiting innings, so therefore thinks like skipping starts or starting the season in may or whatever wouldn't necessarily work if you wanna get a full offseason of rest.
seventh, it's the same model they followed with zimmermann and i'd say it worked out pretty well.
eighth, you don't draft a once a generation pitcher and player and tempt fate with his elbow a 2nd time before he turns 25.
ninth, even if the nats skipped starts or went to a 6 man rotation, there is still typical throwing between starts that's still stress on the arm and all of that throwing is factored in an innings limit. plus it screws up the pitcher's preparation schedule. when working with a halladay or sabathia type of proven veteran horse, you can do that, but when dealing with a 24 year old coming off TJ surgery, it's best to stay on a regular schedule.
tenth, mark prior. and he wasn't even coming off TJ surgery.
eleventh, kerry wood. and he wasn't even coming off TJ surgery.
twelfth, there would be nothing worse for strasburg's arm that to sit him for 3 weeks then throw him int he playoffs. talk about a recipe for disaster.
thirteenth, if strasburg's career ended today, he's have a nice chunk of change from his signing bonus, but if he blows out his elbow again, he'll never get that $100+M contract like sabathia, halladay, lee, hamels, cain, etc. boras is looking out for the best interest of his client AND the nats are looking out for the personal best interest of the player and their long term investment. if you had the #1 pick of a once in a generation player and were given the options of him pitching for you for a little over a the equivalent of a full season (~250 innings) for his career, but it guaranteed you a WS title, or the option of him being a cornerstone player for the next 12-15 years but with no guarantee of a WS title, which would you choose? i'd choose the latter. obviously there's no gurantee the nats would win it this year or that strasburg's elbow would pop if he kept pitching, but you play the odds. there's no guarantee you'll get lung cancer if you smoke cigs, and no guarantee you'll avoid it if you don't smoke cigs, but you are not playing to the odds if you are smoking cigs.
it amazes me that (1) people believe they have thought of some magical formula that the nat's front office hasn't already spent hours debating and talking with medical professionals, like james andrews, about, and (2) that only the nationals' fans and DC beat writers seem to be OK with shutting down strasburg understanding the long term view of the franchise and one of your franchise cornerstones and it's the outsiders whoa re wigging out about it.