To be honest, this has to be one of the most puzzling series of events that the roller coaster that was MSU basketball could have made. I, as well as many fans, was shocked by the hire of Coach Ray over interested assistants from Kentucky and Kansas. That said, we as MSU fans, owe the man a fair shake. Reasonable expectations with the team that he should have inherited (Moultrie, Hood, and a good recruiting class) would have placed our minimum expectations at NIT with NCAA in sights. However, realistically, the program has been decimated. No one blames Moultrie for going pro, but it would remove reasonable NCAA expectations. Hood's loss removes NIT expectations. The loss of of the other guys makes us noncompetitive in Year 1 unless Coach Ray can land this class of recruits. If the recruits walk, then we have very little chance at a competitive season. That said, Year 1 is rock bottom. My guess would be 12 wins at most. As others have mentioned, we'll be able to evaluate Coach Ray based on if he can retain any of Stans' recruits. If not, then what kind of players can he fill some of the scholarships with. That will be our first indication. Sure, he doesn't have much time, but a good coach will be able to gathersome hungry players willing to work. Our second look will come from the fall recruiting period. What caliber of players can he attract? Can he keep a few in-state players? Can he land 1-2 diamonds in the rough? As next year rolls on, and we are suffering through the basketball season, we'll get a look at how good a coach and recruiter Coach Ray can be. Year 2 should be competitive, but probably 15-18 wins. We should achieve an NIT birth by Year 3 but I can wait for Year 4 if we have the recruits starting to come. I just can't see being very competitive without the current class in 3 years. We are not Kentucky. We will not land 5 McDonald's All-Americans each year. Thus, we need our young players to develop, which means they'll be men around Year 3, with more talent to follow in Years 4 and 5. A couple of good transfers could really accelerate this timeline by incorporating decent talent at a good level of maturity. Thus, I think we'll begin to know what we have next fall from his on the court coaching and the recruiting classes from this spring and next fall. However, expectations of the NIT or NCAA will be dependent on those recruits and 3-4 years is a realistic expectation for making post season play.