Likelihood of Winning Regions

[Mr Honda]

I've listed below from 1-4 the teams remaining in each region. I've put them in the order of the likelihood of each team winning each region. If New Bern should be upset this week, then the east is wide open. In my opinion, the winner of the Hough/Grimsley matchup should win the west.


East

1. New Bern

2. Millbrook

3. Hillside

4. Rolesville



West

1. Hough

2. Grimsley

3. Weddington

4. A.C. Reynolds

 

[portcity FB]

I think Rolesville and Millbrook are the favorites to win the East.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

I think Rolesville and Millbrook are the favorites to win the East.

Absolutely. We're just happy to be here.

 

[portcity FB]

Absolutely. We're just happy to be here.

Whenever you can run the ball as well as NB does you have a chance. After the Hoggard-NB game my thoughts were mixed. NB makes plays on defense but this defense isnt as good as the defense I saw in 2014. After the game I felt Hoggard should have used 4 WR while trying to run like Jordan did. The problem is Hoggard and Jordan had poor passing games and NB knew that. Hoggard may have had the weakest passing game of any team in the playoffs and Jordan wasn’t much better. Now NB will see teams that will play 4 WR sets and can run and pass the ball. If Hoggard had their staring QB I think it would have been a close game similar to the NB-Jordan game. Rolesville and Millbrook (I haven’t seen much on Hillside) are much better and much more explosive. I think NB lack of a passing game will come into play deep into the playoffs and that’s where they are now. Good luck to the Bears.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

Whenever you can run the ball as well as NB does you have a chance. After the Hoggard-NB game my thoughts were mixed. NB makes plays on defense but this defense isnt as good as the defense I saw in 2014. After the game I felt Hoggard should have used 4 WR while trying to run like Jordan did. The problem is Hoggard and Jordan had poor passing games and NB knew that. Hoggard may have had the weakest passing game of any team in the playoffs and Jordan wasn’t much better. Now NB will see teams that will play 4 WR sets and can run and pass the ball. If Hoggard had their staring QB I think it would have been a close game similar to the NB-Jordan game. Rolesville and Millbrook (I haven’t seen much on Hillside) are much better and much more explosive. I think NB lack of a passing game will come into play deep into the playoffs and that’s where they are now. Good luck to the Bears.

I believe our defense is a little better than people think but we'll see what we can do against a high-powered offense this Friday. Pretty impressive to score 38 points against Jordan in just 9 minutes of possession time. As far as throwing the football, NB threw it twice, both for TD's on Friday night. Folks think they can't throw it, but you don't need to if you're averaging over 11 yards a pop.

 

[portcity FB]

I believe our defense is a little better than people think but we'll see what we can do against a high-powered offense this Friday. Pretty impressive to score 38 points against Jordan in just 9 minutes of possession time. As far as throwing the football, NB threw it twice, both for TD's on Friday night. Folks think they can't throw it, but you don't need to if you're averaging over 11 yards a pop.

I was not implying that NB wasn’t good I just don’t think it’s a championship defense. What NB did to Jordan defense was very impressive but what Jordan did on offense was impressive too.
I don’t think NB needs to pass a lot but the end of the Jordan game is what I’m talking about. There will be situations where passing will be needed. If Jordan had 2 more mins at the end of the game where they could run they would have scored, but they didn’t.

 

[portcity FB]

NB will score points. I don’t think they will face a front 7 stronger than what they played in round 2 unless they face Hough in the finals. Rolesville had peaked at the right time and they are healthy. There will be lots of points on the board Friday.

 

[3ydsandacloudofdust]

It's kind of hard to seperate the 4 on either side. Hough to me seems like the best overall but the others are right there.
I'm not sure on why you picked the 4 in that order in the east but I feel that there is less difference. New Bern to me is the outlier. They really never play anyone so how good they are is in question. They lost last year to Rolesville and was nearly upset at home last week. Picking them #1 to me is a stretch. Millbrook lost convincingly to Rolesville and rolesville lost convincingly to Hillside. both teams beat WF handily in their last meeting.

I'd have to go with

1. Hillside
2. Rolesville
3. Millbrook
4. New Bern

But really all could beat any team.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

It's kind of hard to seperate the 4 on either side. Hough to me seems like the best overall but the others are right there.
I'm not sure on why you picked the 4 in that order in the east but I feel that there is less difference. New Bern to me is the outlier. They really never play anyone so how good they are is in question. They lost last year to Rolesville and was nearly upset at home last week. Picking them #1 to me is a stretch. Millbrook lost convincingly to Rolesville and rolesville lost convincingly to Hillside. both teams beat WF handily in their last meeting.

I'd have to go with

1. Hillside
2. Rolesville
3. Millbrook
4. New Bern

But really all could beat any team.

I’d put us #5 in the top 4 for sure as we’ve never played a good team in our existence. Speaking of stretches, building your case for this year based off last year is a big one. How many defending champs are still left? You mentioned almost losing to Jordan, wait until you see the score from earlier this year between them and Hillside.

 

[kyleheel30]

I've listed below from 1-4 the teams remaining in each region. I've put them in the order of the likelihood of each team winning each region. If New Bern should be upset this week, then the east is wide open. In my opinion, the winner of the Hough/Grimsley matchup should win the west.


East

1. New Bern

2. Millbrook

3. Hillside

4. Rolesville



West

1. Hough

2. Grimsley

3. Weddington

4. A.C. Reynolds

Mr. Honda has Reynolds last? Shocking!

 

[3ydsandacloudofdust]

I’d put us #5 in the top 4 for sure as we’ve never played a good team in our existence. Speaking of stretches, building your case for this year based off last year is a big one. How many defending champs are still left? You mentioned almost losing to Jordan, wait until you see the score from earlier this year between them and Hillside.

Did you actually read my post? I said there is very little margin between all. Who cares about your existence. The players only get 4 years and most only get 2 on varsity.
SMH, New Bern's schedule is an issue. Deny it but it doesn't change. Rolesville's collapse against Hillside is an issue. Millbrook's collapse against Rolesville is an issue. New Bern's lost last year is an issue.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

Did you actually read my post? I said there is very little margin between all. Who cares about your existence. The players only get 4 years and most only get 2 on varsity.
SMH, New Bern's schedule is an issue. Deny it but it doesn't change. Rolesville's collapse against Hillside is an issue. Millbrook's collapse against Rolesville is an issue. New Bern's lost last year is an issue.

Oh I absolutely did. But you mentioned last year so I thought bringing up the fact that, I believe, only one defending champion is still playing. You mentioned us almost losing to Jordan so I figured it would make sense to bring up how Hillside, your #1, beat them by a point. Yes, playing a top 5A team out of VA, a New Hanover team that beat Butler and teams like Rose, Havelock and Jacksonville is an issue, we get it. The nearest 4A school to us is 2+ hours away. Called Gibbons the last 2 years but their schedule was full. Glad the kids got a chance to venture out and play in Norfolk, VA this year. Last year against Rolesville, we had 27 points in the first half all while fumbling the ball 3 times in the first 24 minutes in our own red zone. The QB last year who had 4 turnovers against Rolesville isn’t here anymore. This team is all seniors and have played varsity 3-4 years and have played in multiple 3rd rounds and an East Final together. The new QB takes care of the ball and is a better runner. New team, new year. Go Bears.

 

[portcity FB]

Turnovers will be a major factor in all these games. I was speaking with a head coach a few years back about a playoff loss and he said, “if we just hadn’t turned it over 4 times”. Turnovers are not always carless mistakes. This deep in the playoffs you have a lot of great players making great plays. In that particular game the other team make 2 incredible pics. the throws were not bad. The other two turnovers were fumbles and the defense put a hat on the ball and created the fumble. If a team throws it 25 times they will probably have some pics. If a team runs it 50 times they will probably fumble it some. It is the speed and strength of the game. What teams do with those turnovers will play a major role in the outcome.
I think NB scd is solid. Maury from Virginia is a very good team, Havelock, NH, Rose and even Jacksonville are quality opponents and NB smoked all of them. Now you have to factor in the playoff wins too. Hoggard and Jordan are quality teams. If Roseville, Hillside and Millbrook had played NB sch would they have beaten their opponents 576-103?
With that being said I have never been a fan of teams that are too 1 demential winning it all. It has been done before. WF won 3 and they pretty much ran the ball. Their defense was dominating more than any team left this year. NB has a great shot as do the other 3 teams. At this point you have to be very good and have some balls roll your way.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

Turnovers will be a major factor in all these games. I was speaking with a head coach a few years back about a playoff loss and he said, “if we just hadn’t turned it over 4 times”. Turnovers are not always carless mistakes. This deep in the playoffs you have a lot of great players making great plays. In that particular game the other team make 2 incredible pics. the throws were not bad. The other two turnovers were fumbles and the defense put a hat on the ball and created the fumble. If a team throws it 25 times they will probably have some pics. If a team runs it 50 times they will probably fumble it some. It is the speed and strength of the game. What teams do with those turnovers will play a major role in the outcome.
I think NB scd is solid. Maury from Virginia is a very good team, Havelock, NH, Rose and even Jacksonville are quality opponents and NB smoked all of them. Now you have to factor in the playoff wins too. Hoggard and Jordan are quality teams. If Roseville, Hillside and Millbrook had played NB sch would they have beaten their opponents 576-103?
With that being said I have never been a fan of teams that are too 1 demential winning it all. It has been done before. WF won 3 and they pretty much ran the ball. Their defense was dominating more than any team left this year. NB has a great shot as do the other 3 teams. At this point you have to be very good and have some balls roll your way.

The 3 fumbles we had in the first half were all self-inflicted and the defense didn't touch the ball. Bad exchange/bobbled snap etc and all 3 were inside our own 20-30 right after a kick-off where the defense had to go right back out on the field. A lot of rain coming in on Friday, we'll see how that effects the game. I can count on one hand the mistakes the QB has made this year in regards to turnovers, which is crucial in this offense. Folks over exaggerate on our schedule each year, for some reason.

 

[CatScratchFever23]

Midseason I was certain the Bears would roll to the eastern championship. Not so sure now. A few dents in the armor. I will be pulling for them but I don’t think they are playing well enough to make a few mistakes and win the next two. Like Port , I am hesitiant to think a one dimensional 4A team can win the east and ultimately the championship. I want to be wrong.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

Midseason I was certain the Bears would roll to the eastern championship. Not so sure now. A few dents in the armor. I will be pulling for them but I don’t think they are playing well enough to make a few mistakes and win the next two. Like Port , I am hesitiant to think a one dimensional 4A team can win the east and ultimately the championship. I want to be wrong.

Everyone left has dents in the ole armor. Offense is trucking along and just put up 38 points up in 9 minutes of possession time, which isn't too shabby. Offense can pass the ball but not really a reason to when you've averaging 10+ a pop. Threw multiple TD passes on Friday night. Looking forward to the challenge.

 

[CatScratchFever23]

I knew all that before I posted. Good luck to New Bern.

 

[portcity FB]

Everyone left has dents in the ole armor. Offense is trucking along and just put up 38 points up in 9 minutes of possession time, which isn't too shabby. Offense can pass the ball but not really a reason to when you've averaging 10+ a pop. Threw multiple TD passes on Friday night. Looking forward to the challenge.

Every team can throw passes and TDs. I am talking about executing passes when they are looking for it. If NB gets into a game where it is called very tight they may find themselves in 3rd and 15 or 20 or 4th and 10 or 15. I know NB can pick it hat up running but they may need to throw. NB passing success so far generally comes from great play calling once the coaches see certain things. Again, the end of the Jordan game is a perfect example. They didn’t have enough time or timeouts to keep running so they had to pass when NB knew they had to pass. Maybe NB will be able to execute in those situations. We will see.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

Every team can throw passes and TDs. I am talking about executing passes when they are looking for it. If NB gets into a game where it is called very tight they may find themselves in 3rd and 15 or 20 or 4th and 10 or 15. I know NB can pick it hat up running but they may need to throw. NB passing success so far generally comes from great play calling once the coaches see certain things. Again, the end of the Jordan game is a perfect example. They didn’t have enough time or timeouts to keep running so they had to pass when NB knew they had to pass. Maybe NB will be able to execute in those situations. We will see.

Not many teams have slowed them down when they've got the pedal to the medal. I like our chances if we can continue to hang onto the ball and force the other team to beat us. Hopefully we can create some turnovers ourselves as Jordan had 76 snaps on Friday without turning it over once.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

New Bern is up 42-7 in the 2Q. If only we played a tougher schedule and threw the ball, we'd be up by 75 instead of 35.

 

[NBBears20124ACHAMPS]

It's kind of hard to seperate the 4 on either side. Hough to me seems like the best overall but the others are right there.
I'm not sure on why you picked the 4 in that order in the east but I feel that there is less difference. New Bern to me is the outlier. They really never play anyone so how good they are is in question. They lost last year to Rolesville and was nearly upset at home last week. Picking them #1 to me is a stretch. Millbrook lost convincingly to Rolesville and rolesville lost convincingly to Hillside. both teams beat WF handily in their last meeting.

I'd have to go with

1. Hillside
2. Rolesville
3. Millbrook
4. New Bern

But really all could beat any team.

Looks like @mrhonda was right. Kudos to you sir for picking the outlier New Bern after their loss to Rolesville a year ago.

Alright, I'm done with the receipts.