Yep. Top 3 picks, actually the whole first round is largely a mix of talent now mixed mostly with highest ceiling.
Marques Bolden
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Even if he did, I'd be shocked if he went first round
Though granted, his rebounding and blocked shots per game numbers were better, Towns didn't exactly set the world on fire in the non-conference schedule last year either, in similar MPG to Skal. He ended up doing okay for himself in the end.
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Not going to disagree because I don't keep up with that kind of thing .. but can you name some top 3 picks in recent years who weren't actually performing that well in college?
The only guys who can possibly do it are athletic bigs. Derrick Favors went third with good, but not excellent production.
Deandre Drummond was thoroughly mediocre but only slipped to 9th.
I can certainly see Skal dropping out of the top 3 under a different coach (won't happen under Cal), but nobody could drop him out of the lottery.
Which he probably will.
That still leaves Humphries, Wynyard, SKJ, and Bam. And Marcus Lee is no sure thing to leave.
Too much. If you just bury guys like Humphries and Wynyard on the bench, you won't be getting guys like that in the future. And if you want depth, you need guys like that. Cal is the Zeus of recruiting, but to expect him to sign 7-8 college-ready studs every single year is asking too much.
Bolden may come to UK. But if he does, his career will probably look like Marcus Lee. Very little production until he's grown up some and then possibly a big junior year to send him pro.
Please, do not shoot the messenger, but I could see there being minutes available. If we take Bolden it means that Lee has already made up his mind to leave, which makes sense. I do not see Wynyard making the rotation next season, but could be wrong about that. I think Bam is a sure fire starter along with Monk and Fox. The other pieces can be moved around. Matthews could easily start at the "3". Humphries at the "5". Monk can run the point when Fox is out with Matthews at the "2". I do not think a rotation like this is too unrealistic.
Starters (25-30 MPG)
Bolden
Bam
Gabriel
Monk
Fox
6th Man (25 MPG)
Matthews @ 2 or 3
Rotation (10-15 MPG)
SKJ @ 4 or 5
Willis @ 3 or 4
Humphries @ 4 or 5
Depth (Under 5 MPG)
Hawkins @ 1
Mulder @ 2 or 3
Wynyard @ 5
Floreal
Starters (25-30 MPG)
Bolden
Bam
Gabriel
Monk
Fox
6th Man (25 MPG)
Matthews @ 2 or 3
Rotation (10-15 MPG)
SKJ @ 4 or 5
Willis @ 3 or 4
Humphries @ 4 or 5
Depth (Under 5 MPG)
Hawkins @ 1
Mulder @ 2 or 3
Wynyard @ 5
Floreal
I would bet the house that Willis falls below Wynyard. Also, Wynyard is more of a 4-5 than Humphries is.
I think if cal gets another player or two, the platoon may return. I hate saying it but I think the twins hurt the platoon system. When is bolden to announce?
On a side not, how can you have a badass porn name like Denzel valentine and be one of the ugliest guys I've ever seen?
On a side not, how can you have a badass porn name like Denzel valentine and be one of the ugliest guys I've ever seen?
K-J will not be coming off the bench, Bolden will be coming off the bench if he comes.
I'm pretty sure that Cal has already said that Wenyen will be on the wing. I could very well see that as a front line and could see Bolden thinking that he beats out Humphries for the 5 spot. (I don't think that happens BTW). The limiting factor for me is simply numbers. Will we have the available scholarships? We have to send a bunch of guys to the draft in order to do so.
I'm going to go on a limb here and say no way in hell skj starts. Maybe his sophomore or junior yr but no way in hell as a freshman. It's not a slam because he grown to 6'10 and has to figure out how to play on a consistent level. He will be good but I can guarntee he won't start. If he does, I'll gladly eat crow. If I were a betting man, my 5 next yr would be this(obviously not including non committs)
1. Ulis- great player and floor general but no way he's gone after this yr. obviously size plays a factor but I truly believe he comes back. Dare I say it but with next yrs class and depending on returnees, undefeated could be real.
2. Fox- this very well could be the most explosive dynamic backcourt cal has had ever. They are lightening fast, can shoot, and create for their teamates for easy baskets.
3. Monk-what's not to like? He plays his *** off, has an excellent touch and can shoot anywhere on the floor. The only thing I worry about monk is his defense and hoping his guy doesn't score 40.
4. Marcus lee-call me crazy but he will return next yr. unless he blows up he's a second round pick at best right now. I put him at 4 because we will need senior leadership on the floor. Don't get me wrong if skj comes in and blows everyone away he may start the second half of the year. But for the time being he will play the 4. Weynen is more of a 3 and will be one of the first off the bench, depending on the matchups he could play 4.
5. Bam!- yes bam will be our starting 5 especially if he has grown to 6'10 like some have claimed. Bams biggest problem will be his post moves and his strength. Guys will flop like a fish out of water to draw fouls on him.
That's my starting 5 as of now even if we get bolden and Simmons. Plus there is a guy that's making a name for himself that's foing to earn some minutes. Of course I'm talking Charles Matthews they will have to find ways to get him on the court. He takes it strong, an excellent rebounder and he does everything asked of him. The last guy is poythress. Right now I'm sure he's an early 2nd round pick. My question would be if he applies for a hardship from last yr, could he return?
I don't see how Ulis and Fox coexist, neither one seem like much of a combo guard, it's going to take major minutes away from someone. I just don't see it, I'm not sure some of you realize what we're getting with Fox, he's as much of a sure thing as Knight was maybe Wall even.
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The same way Knight and Bledsoe coexist at phoenix ... same way Ulis , Murray, and Briscoe are. Bledsoe and Wall.
I don't think you understand how good Ulis is. I'll be honest, I want both on our team but if you made me choose one or the other, I choose Ulis. But if Ulis returns, either him or Fox would be in the game at all times and they'd both get ample amount of time running the show.
Well, from everything we're hearing, Gabriel is almost a lock at this point to move into the top 10, and some are even saying top 5 of the class.
After hearing that its scary how rapidly he's improving, and how much more he is still going to improve, it's sounds like he is almost certainly going to be a starter.
Fox and Monk are both going to start, but if Ulis comes back he starts.
It's almost impossible to fathom Bam not starting.
If Lee comes back, he might start, and we still have Humphries in the fold for the 5 spot
And of course we have SKJ mixed in there somewhere as well.
I really have no clue what to expect at this point.
That would be your starting backcourt there: Ulis, Fox and Monk with Briscoe coming off the bench.
180 degrees off, I'm afraid. Immediate impact is for mid to late first rounders, maybe. Top of the draft is upside.
22, senior, maybe fringe first rounder. Dunn is probably late lottery, but he was projected there last year and is older and better. Generally, age slides in the draft.
Yup.
Spot on.
You're looking at a small sample size (I went out to #4), and generally those with the highest potential are also the most productive in college. AD, KD, Griffin, Rose, Oden. But there are notable examples of players that did not have great college production that went in the top 4. Below are 10 somewhat blah college production guys that were drafted, based on potential and not expected current production, in top 4 of the last 15 drafts. That's 1/6 of all players, and that's with years of high school players and internationals included, too.
2000 - Stromile Swift (#2)
2005 - Marvin Williams (#2)
2006 - Tyrus Thomas (#4)
2008 - Russell Westbrook (#4) (also lol Joe Alexander at #8... wow!)
2010 - Derrick Favors (#3)
2011 - Kyrie Irving (#1... injured, but wasn't great when he was healthy), Enes Kanter (#3, more comparable to an international)
2012 - Bradley Beal (#3), Dion Waiters (#4, did not start in college)
2013 - Anthony Bennett (#1... lol), man this is a crappy draft
2014 - Andrew Wiggins (#1, but not your typical #1 overall production, he was drafted on potential), Aaron Gordon (#4)
To say nothing of all the high school picks (Kwame, Chandler, Curry, etc...) and international players drafted more on potential than polish (Bargnani). And if you expand outside the top 4 (which is a somewhat artificial cutoff anyways), you get your DeMarr Derozens, your Andre Drummonds, you Joe Alexanders, your Al-Farouq Aminus, your Harrison Barneses, your Austin Rivers, your Noah Vonlehs, etc... Plus size rises in the draft, always.
Man. Some of my brothers on here are severely underrating SKJ. The guy that called him a Lyles/Skal combo is pretty accurate. By the time the final rankings come out SKJ will be a borderline top 10 prospect. And in all honesty its not crazy to say when the final ranking come out that we could have 5 top 10 recruits. If we get Bolden he'll come off the bench. Not SKJ. And I think Lee's gone after this year. But Ulis may come back.
I get some of those guys. But Wiggins? He averaged 17pts, 6rbs a game and shot a good % from down town. Beal was productive at Florida too. And Anthony Bennett was one of the best players in college a couple years ago. He put up 16pts, 8rbs, 1blk per game. I don't get why you said they weren't productive.
If Ulis and Lee came back, our starters would look like this, IMHO:
Starters
G Ulis
G Fox
G Monk
F Adebayo
F Lee
Gabriel would be the sixth man.
Ulis won't be back, IMHO. Lee is doubtful to return. I would be tickled if they came back, though.
Starters
G Ulis
G Fox
G Monk
F Adebayo
F Lee
Gabriel would be the sixth man.
Ulis won't be back, IMHO. Lee is doubtful to return. I would be tickled if they came back, though.
***Yeah, Wiggins was a 2nd Team All American: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NCAA_Men's_Basketball_All-Americans
Lee will probably be gone IMO. If he continues to play well and improve he'll be a late 1st rounder IMO. I do think Ulis comes back though and here's my lineup and predictions. I love predicting lineups lol.....
Tyler Ulis - 13pts, 6ast, 2rbs
De'Aaron Fox - 14pts, 4ast, 4rbs
Malik Monk - 15pts, 4rbs, 2ast
Wenyen Gabriel - 15pts, 7rbs, 1blk
Bam Adebayo - 14pts, 10rbs, 2blks
Main Bench guys
Charles Mathews - 8pts, 5rbs
SKJ - 10pts, 7rbs, 2blks
Isaac Humphries or Tai Wynyard - 4pts, 5rbs, 1blk
Derrick Willis - 4pts, 3rbs
We're gonna lead the nation in scoring next year brothers. We have to much talent and too many weapons. I just hope one of Mulder or Willis comes in and plays well and gives us a knock down 3pt shooter off the bench.
Tyler Ulis - 13pts, 6ast, 2rbs
De'Aaron Fox - 14pts, 4ast, 4rbs
Malik Monk - 15pts, 4rbs, 2ast
Wenyen Gabriel - 15pts, 7rbs, 1blk
Bam Adebayo - 14pts, 10rbs, 2blks
Main Bench guys
Charles Mathews - 8pts, 5rbs
SKJ - 10pts, 7rbs, 2blks
Isaac Humphries or Tai Wynyard - 4pts, 5rbs, 1blk
Derrick Willis - 4pts, 3rbs
We're gonna lead the nation in scoring next year brothers. We have to much talent and too many weapons. I just hope one of Mulder or Willis comes in and plays well and gives us a knock down 3pt shooter off the bench.
Even shooting 18% from 3 and 39% from the free throw line and with his assist to t/o ratio? I know he's putting up double digit points and solid rebounding numbers, but the other statistics seem low for a kid who wants to jump after his freshman year.
Fair enough, but people were down on Wiggins production. That was the draft debate between him, Parker, and Embiid (before he was hurt) - upside versus production. I was thinking more immediate impact in the league, but in pure college production he was good, just not what people hoped/thought he would be. Beal was all right, but again people were wondering where "the best shot form since Ray Allen" was all year - he shot 34% from 3. He was also extremely young when drafted, which lends more to the production later versus production now issue that was the original issue.
Bennett you're right - he was productive. Still, he sucks, and I just wanted to point that out.