Military Strikes on Iran Imminent

baltimorened

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While a case can be made to support the author's positions, it might be pointed out that as of this date, more americans have frozen to death in NYC in the last few months than have died or been injured because of combat in Iran. Now this could change over time, but the author's positions are as today
 

baltimorened

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Well, as for me, I would like to see peace break out in the Middle East. Hard to see how any kind of lasting peace is gonna break out with all of this bombing. It may produce a temporary peace, but the likely consequence is that it will promote more radicalism and anti-American sentiment among the populations being bombed. Trump could perhaps try to extend an olive branch and offer assistance to these people in rebuilding their infrastructure and perhaps establishing a democratic government of their own choosing. They may well tell him to pound sand, but there would be a benefit simply in making the offer.
are you by chance a descendant of Neville Chamberlain? Just think if Trump were around to take out Hitler and leaders of the third Reich at their pre-war brunch before the invasion of Poland etc al
 
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dpic73

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While a case can be made to support the author's positions, it might be pointed out that as of this date, more americans have frozen to death in NYC in the last few months than have died or been injured because of combat in Iran. Now this could change over time, but the author's positions are as today
Now THAT is a wild whataboutism. LOL
 

firegiver

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You're on to something. We do have war powers act....our leaders should have justifications for their actions...we may not accept their justification, but then again we don't have all the facts and nobody, either party cares about our concerns.

Where the disagreements come in, though, is that previous presidents have done similar things and, not surprisingly when a democrat president does it, republicans are outraged, and when a republican president does it, democrats are outraged. If you weren't a cynic before the outrages you should be after.
cynicism is a type of manufactured consent. Throw your hands up in the air if you want. But pretending this is normal and only people who are questioning it are doing so purely, because of partisanship is a narrative used to dispel the question, lazily.
 

Aardvark86

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cynicism is a type of manufactured consent. Throw your hands up in the air if you want. But pretending this is normal and only people who are questioning it are doing so purely, because of partisanship is a narrative used to dispel the question, lazily.
Actually, cynicism is a normal and recurring political cycle throughout American history. But take heart, FG, the cynical phase is eventually displaced with periods of creedal passion.
 

baltimorened

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cynicism is a type of manufactured consent. Throw your hands up in the air if you want. But pretending this is normal and only people who are questioning it are doing so purely, because of partisanship is a narrative used to dispel the question, lazily.

cynicism is a type of manufactured consent. Throw your hands up in the air if you want. But pretending this is normal and only people who are questioning it are doing so purely, because of partisanship is a narrative used to dispel the question, lazily.
Well call me cynical what the former Democrat speaker of the house calls similar actions of a democrat president "legal" but refers to similar actions by a republican President "unconstitutional, illegal".

You don't see a dichotomy in there somewhere
Did you know that 2000 people die a year due to constipation? Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

View attachment 1205925
I did not know that...interesting...Makes you want to pop an xlax
 
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Hotshoe

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Captain Houseboat: Large Marge was one of your heroes before she had the gall to say something critical of your Orange Demigod. How are things on the underside of male horses these days? Say hi to Mr. Ed for me. 🐴🍆
Wrong. I was never a fan. Keep making sh&t up.
 

LafayetteBear

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doesn't it sort of give away your intent when all of a sudden you evacuate all your citizens?
Point taken, but Trump was already making public statements (aka threats) that "something bad is gonna happen." Moreover, his Administration certainly could and should have quietly prepared for military evacuation flights and consular/embassy protection. Apparently, they had no drone protection in place at the Kuwaiti consulate. It's now on fire.
 

firegiver

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Well call me cynical what the former Democrat speaker of the house calls similar actions of a democrat president "legal" but refers to similar actions by a republican President "unconstitutional, illegal".

You don't see a dichotomy in there somewhere

I did not know that...interesting...Makes you want to pop an xlax
In this imaginary scenario, which you responded to me with, am I this person? What am I supposed to do with this narrative? It doesn't answer my question.
 

LafayetteBear

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You're on to something. We do have war powers act....our leaders should have justifications for their actions...we may not accept their justification, but then again we don't have all the facts and nobody, either party cares about our concerns.

Where the disagreements come in, though, is that previous presidents have done similar things and, not surprisingly when a democrat president does it, republicans are outraged, and when a republican president does it, democrats are outraged. If you weren't a cynic before the outrages you should be after.
Ned: You managed to pull off the Daily Double here ^^^^. The old "we don't have enough information, so comments and critiques are premature" defense in the first paragraph, and the familiar resort to whataboutism in the second paragraph. Props.

I'm not sure what more facts one would need in order to comment on the fact that our Kuwaiti consulate is on fire from drone strikes, or that the Italians and other European allies are already evacuating their citizens and we are not. And if you want to compare presidents acting without Congressional approval, please note that Trump made zero effort to build a case with either the American public or Congress before launching these strikes. He notified the Gang of Eight a few hours before the strikes went down. That was it. No prior president has been so peremptory. Don't you consider it telling that our European allies supported Bush 41, Bush 43, and Obama when they launched their prior incursions or bombing attacks, but those same European Allies would not support Trump's bombing of Iran on Friday? They wouldn't even allow Trump to use their territory to launch these strikes. So Trump is right and everyone else is wrong?
 

LafayetteBear

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are you by chance a descendant of Neville Chamberlain? Just think if Trump were around to take out Hitler and leaders of the third Reich at their pre-war brunch before the invasion of Poland etc al
I'm surprised that I have to point this out to you, but Neville Chamberlain declared "peace in our time" while Hitler was still in power and after concluding a "peace deal "with him, whereas the U.S. military has killed virtually all of the Iranian leadership and destroyed most of its military infrastructure. Under those circumstances, my suggestion that Trump consider extending an olive branch to Iran is nowhere equivalent to Chamberlain concluding a deal with Hitler. If Trump's stated goal of limiting our involvement in Iran is serious, he should be seriously considering how he can help the Iranian population create a new, more democratic, and more Western friendly government. What do you think would assist more in that regard, continuing to bomb the crap out of Iran or ceasing the bombing and offering to help them rebuild some of their infrastructure?
 

LafayetteBear

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And all this time, after Hillary's testimony, and support from members of her party, I thought Benghazi was a smashing " nothing to see here". Are you comparing Iran to that position or are we now intimating that Benghazi was something different
I'm intimating that, if Benghazi was the basis for years of Congressional hearings and attempts at intimidating Hillary Clinton, imagine (there's that word again, JHP) the amount of criticism and investigation that Trump & Co.'s continuing security screw ups might produce.
 

baltimorened

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Ned: You managed to pull off the Daily Double here ^^^^. The old "we don't have enough information, so comments and critiques are premature" defense in the first paragraph, and the familiar resort to whataboutism in the second paragraph. Props.

I'm not sure what more facts one would need in order to comment on the fact that our Kuwaiti consulate is on fire from drone strikes, or that the Italians and other European allies are already evacuating their citizens and we are not. And if you want to compare presidents acting without Congressional approval, please note that Trump made zero effort to build a case with either the American public or Congress before launching these strikes. He notified the Gang of Eight a few hours before the strikes went down. That was it. No prior president has been so peremptory. Don't you consider it telling that our European allies supported Bush 41, Bush 43, and Obama when they launched their prior incursions or bombing attacks, but those same European Allies would not support Trump's bombing of Iran on Friday? They wouldn't even allow Trump to use their territory to launch these strikes. So Trump is right and everyone else is wrong?
Bear, I have a hard time believing that if the US flew every civilian out of the mid east, went before the Congress as required by the WPA, built a coalition of NATO and mid east allies, and then bombed Iran, you'd be OK with it.

No matter the nits, and there are plenty of them, I still believe that what is happening now was going to happen some time in the future, likely when Iran was in a stronger position. Admittedly, I might be 100% wrong, but there is an off chance that I am 100% right. Itan is a problem for us and the world....it's easiest to solve a problem when it's easiest to solve the problem. If reports are correct, Iran is producing 100 missiles a month. They don't produce them to earn interest or put in a museum. they won't give up nuclear ambitions, should we wait till they have nuclear warheads to put on those missiles?

As I posted before, what if we had taken out Hitler and 3rd Reich leadership before they invaded Poland??
 

firegiver

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not sure what your question was, sorry. try me again
I missunderstood your post.
revisiting: "

Well call me cynical what the former Democrat speaker of the house calls similar actions of a democrat president "legal" but refers to similar actions by a republican President "unconstitutional, illegal".

You don't see a dichotomy in there somewhere"

This is an honest question: Does the powers used by Obama to conduct the strikes he did, apply here?

"President Obama used the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), which was originally passed in response to the September 11 attacks, to justify air strikes in Afghanistan. "


"President Biden authorized airstrikes against Houthi militants in Yemen using his Article II constitutional authority, which allows the president to act in self-defense. The strikes were conducted in response to Houthi attacks on U.S. forces and commercial shipping in the Red Sea, with the first phase occurring from January 12, 2024, to January 17, 2025, and a second phase from March 15, 2025, to May 6, 2025."

Are these the same as you claim, to what is happening right now?
Were we attacked? Was this in response to 2001? What is the actual reason behind the strike? Whats the justification?
 

baltimorened

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I'm intimating that, if Benghazi was the basis for years of Congressional hearings and attempts at intimidating Hillary Clinton, imagine (there's that word again, JHP) the amount of criticism and investigation that Trump & Co.'s continuing security screw ups might produce.
I'd be willing to bet (figuratively) that if and when democrats regain control of either house or Senate, we'll get the chance to find out
 

baltimorened

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I missunderstood your post.
revisiting: "

Well call me cynical what the former Democrat speaker of the house calls similar actions of a democrat president "legal" but refers to similar actions by a republican President "unconstitutional, illegal".

You don't see a dichotomy in there somewhere"

This is an honest question: Does the powers used by Obama to conduct the strikes he did, apply here?

"President Obama used the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), which was originally passed in response to the September 11 attacks, to justify air strikes in Afghanistan. "


"President Biden authorized airstrikes against Houthi militants in Yemen using his Article II constitutional authority, which allows the president to act in self-defense. The strikes were conducted in response to Houthi attacks on U.S. forces and commercial shipping in the Red Sea, with the first phase occurring from January 12, 2024, to January 17, 2025, and a second phase from March 15, 2025, to May 6, 2025."

Are these the same as you claim, to what is happening right now?
Were we attacked? Was this in response to 2001? What is the actual reason behind the strike? Whats the justification?
not that you'll accept, but Iran has been attacking American installations for 47 years. Jack Keane have a litany of instances where Iran, either directly or through proxies attacked and killed Americans.

If you can't accept that Iran has been or is a threat then no justification would satisfy you. IMO, this was going to happen with Iran sooner or later.
 

TigerGrowls

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Dec 21, 2001
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Well we had to have enough to take care of emerging things in the middle east and elsewhere and still have enough to deter, and if needed fight and win a conventional fight with China over Taiwan right?

I think this is one where everyone is right. We are almost "out" but at the same time we're not going to run out tomorrow.

"out" doesnt' necessarily mean " zero left" . Just like airplanes and fuel. Its considered 'out of fuel' when they have reached their minimum safe level and have to move directly to a place to land. Literally having no fuel and starting to crash is also 'out of fuel' ... but that's way worse.

This fight is one that we need to finish and we have enought to do that job, but i'm sure strategic planners and those in the know are watching magazine inventory in the middle east deplete at epic rates and our strategic stockpiles tick down and are concerned.

Its a reality that we let our munition production capability atrophy to little more than training replacment levels over the years. Our stockpiles of many munitions have been reduced greatly and/or not at sufficient levels. If you look at ukraine... that war continues to chew through 155mm arty rounds of all flavors. ATACMs and MLRS rockets as well. We've already started ramping production of 155mm and Europe is also doing the same so, while Ukraine needs much more, i think the 155MM situation in Ukraine has stabilized a bit since Europe is helping more. (i could be wrong). Use of ATACMs/MLRS has slowed partly due to ammunition, but also due to vulinerability of the launchers and the Russians adapting and providing less lucrative targets.

The real bottleneck is Air and Ballistic Missile Defense. Land based and sea based. Our Air Defense missiles (of all types) are super capable but super expensive and we dont' make many each month/year. The proliferation of cheap drones and other missile threats has brought mass back into the equation. Use is way way outstripping production. Taking THAAD for example ( high altitued air and ballistic missile defense) we make +-8 per month (and that's an increase from years back). We used over 150 missiles in 12 days defending Israel last year. AI says that was 25% of our total inventory.

Patriot (air defense workhorse) missiles are also critically low. - AI puts us at about 25% of stockpiles remaining . AI says ukraine is burning through 60-70 per month and that rationed use agains the highest priority targets and to defend the highest priority areas. We've burnt though hundreds in the last couple days, i'd have to guess.

Also TLAMs (Sea-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles). We are going to need the **** out of those in any future fights (think china). So far in this latest fight vs Iran , AI says that we have expended 5 YEARS worth of production.

Lastly "out" can also mean, zero left in the combat theatre or maybe in the case of ships, the ship has zero left, or only enough to defend itself. The ship has to leave the fight to reload, maybe our expenditure was greater than planned and we are in danger of running out if we don't dont accelerate the replenishment in theater from strategic stockpiles.

edit: fixed grammer/spelling
They had a retired general on fox and he said if we currently got in a real war with China we could run out of a lots of kinds of munitions in less than two weeks. They need to ramp up production.
 
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dpic73

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What are we doing to get our citizens home? They call the help line and just get a recorded message that there are no evacuation flights scheduled. WTF?




I am a proud US citizen and founder of a successful startup that employs 94 employees in the US and 180+ employees globally. I was in Dubai on a business trip meeting with financial institutions to help them fight financial fraud in the region, but now I am stranded.

I expected the usgov to do something to get US citizens out but I haven't seen any meaningful action.

After 4 days of adrenalin and constant fear, I feel demoralised and abandoned by our government. It’s difficult watching other countries – UK, Israel, Spain, Italy and India – repatriate their citizens or ensure that commercial flights continue operating to bring them home.

I became a naturalized US citizen because I believe in the American dream, and the idea that in a crisis, America never leaves its citizens behind. I see that American dream being shattered not just for me, but for tens of thousands of other Americans left stranded.

I have 3 requests of our government:

1. Can the @usgov ensure the commercial airlines don't cancel US bound flights? I've booked a dozen flights to leave Dubai and ALL of them got canceled, even as flights to other countries continue operating.

2. If that is not possible, can the USG organize planes, commercial or military, to evacuate Americans out of Dubai and the surrounding region?

I saw a very hopeful note from the Assistant Secretary of State for Global Public Affairs which states, “the US State Dept is in touch with 3,000 Americans and that we should call 1-202-501-4444 for assistance with departure options.”

But that is unfortunately not accurate. I am enrolled in Step and have only received generic messages. Further, on calling that number, the message you get is:

"Please don't rely on the USG for assisted departure or evacuation at this point. There are currently no evacuation flights at this time."

3. With funding cuts to the US consulates and with attacks on US embassies in the region, there’s no one that Americans can reach out to in the broader GCC region. Can we set up an emergency hotline within the US that actually works, and that has someone who is taking down more details?


@SecRubio just stated that there are 1500 Americans who have contacted asking for assistance to evacuate. How did they do that because I am completely at a loss on who to call? I called up 1-202-501-4444 and all I got is a generic message. Myself and other Americans need help getting back home.
 

firegiver

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not that you'll accept, but Iran has been attacking American installations for 47 years. Jack Keane have a litany of instances where Iran, either directly or through proxies attacked and killed Americans.

If you can't accept that Iran has been or is a threat then no justification would satisfy you. IMO, this was going to happen with Iran sooner or later.
A threat... we'll that should be easy to justify. So go ahead. Remember, your audience has been alive since 1980.
 

ANEW

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Well, as for me, I would like to see peace break out in the Middle East. Hard to see how any kind of lasting peace is gonna break out with all of this bombing. It may produce a temporary peace, but the likely consequence is that it will promote more radicalism and anti-American sentiment among the populations being bombed. Trump could perhaps try to extend an olive branch and offer assistance to these people in rebuilding their infrastructure and perhaps establishing a democratic government of their own choosing. They may well tell him to pound sand, but there would be a benefit simply in making the offer.
I think everyone wants that peace part. But i think that you have too pessimstic of an outlook, while at the same time admitting that "peace" is always going to be a relative term in an area rife with no kidding tribalism with a extra large helping of religious fanaticism and death cult.

I don't see us bombing populations. The american and apple pie haters will always be. Those that unfortunately are not and are casualties will likely understand.

What we have and are seeing getting stronger is the non persian arab states coming together, behind a strong US, in opposition to Iran.

To those inside of Iran, Trump will offer an olive branch, to the gulf region he will (should) continue to project strength and resolve i think between the two we have a good, not 100%, chance of peace. And if not, after we get done with this *** kicking... israel and the other gulf states shoudl be able to control Iran on their own.
 

ANEW

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They had a retired general on fox and he said if we currently got in a real war with China we could run out of a lots of kinds of munitions in less than two weeks. They need to ramp up production.
not every talking head is right, but this one is, IMO. Iran was ramping up production of drones/missiles with the goal of having enough quantity to overwhelm our/gulf state anti-missile / anti-air defenses. Once they achieved dominance, then they could use the threat of distruction/ disruption of oil to avoid attack to derail their getting a nuclear bomb.
 
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ANEW

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A threat... we'll that should be easy to justify. So go ahead. Remember, your audience has been alive since 1980.
  • 1979 US Citizens taken hostage. 8 service members killed during OP Eagle Claw, the mission to rescue them .
  • Marine Barrack bombing in Beruit - 238 americans killed
  • Willam Buckley, William Higgens, Peter Killburn - kidnapped horribly tortured and killed by iranian proxies
  • Tanker War in 1988 an- 37 us casualties on the USS Stark
  • Khobar Towers bombing - 1996. 19 US killed. 372 wounded
  • USS Cole bombing 2000 - (probable ties to Iran) - 17 killed, 39 injured
  • Proxy war in Iraq - IRGC supplied materials and knowledge to insurgent groups to kill and maim us military. per AI approx 600 DEATHS, wounded?
  • Missile strike after we killed Solemani - injured many us military. (100ea?)
  • Potential involvement in POTUS assasination attemps
  • October 7th - Iran backed. - 46 us citizens killed, to include those taken hostage and tortured before deaths
This doesn't include the Iranian Quds force activities in Afghanistan. They were there.

How did i do? @firegiver I think what i posted is pretty accurate. What do you think about it? Its history.
 
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TigerGrowls

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We are already seeing a clear day-to-day decline in launches by the Islamic Republic, signaling rapid degradation of its strike capacity.

Ballistic missile launches by the Islamic Republic over the first four days:

⚪ Day 1: ~ 350 missiles
⚪ Day 2: ~175 missiles
⚪ Day 3: ~120 missiles
⚪ Day 4: ~50 missiles

The identification and targeting of their launchers and supporting infrastructure have significantly degraded and constrained their operational capability.
 

LafayetteBear

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Bear, I have a hard time believing that if the US flew every civilian out of the mid east, went before the Congress as required by the WPA, built a coalition of NATO and mid east allies, and then bombed Iran, you'd be OK with it.

No matter the nits, and there are plenty of them, I still believe that what is happening now was going to happen some time in the future, likely when Iran was in a stronger position. Admittedly, I might be 100% wrong, but there is an off chance that I am 100% right. Itan is a problem for us and the world....it's easiest to solve a problem when it's easiest to solve the problem. If reports are correct, Iran is producing 100 missiles a month. They don't produce them to earn interest or put in a museum. they won't give up nuclear ambitions, should we wait till they have nuclear warheads to put on those missiles?

As I posted before, what if we had taken out Hitler and 3rd Reich leadership before they invaded Poland??
Ned: Your desire to throw bouquets in PIC's direction has you attempting to conflate Khamenei with Hitler. Hitler murdered six million Jews, gypsies, gays, and others, and he started World War II. Khamenei was not a good person by any stretch, but he just doesn't come close to being in Hitler's ballpark. Your suggestion that perhaps Khamenei was gonna unleash World War III or Armegeddon on the world is wildly speculative at best. He and his colleagues didn't manage to do it for over 47 years. But they were just weeks or months away from doing it? OK ...

As for your first paragraph, above, how about Trump evacuating at least a few Americans? He knew or should have known that bombing the crap out of Iran was gonna put them at risk. Doesn't take a genius to figure that one out. How about him having made at least some effort to build public and/or Congressional support for taking military action against Iran? Bush 41, Bush 43, and Obama all did so. I thought this guy was the "peace president." He's bombed seven (7) different countries since the start of his second term, and he's only getting warmed up. His Department of Defense has been rechristened the Department of War. It's obvious that the name change comports with his world view. He has yet to find a country he wouldn't like to bomb or hit with a tariff.
 
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