UNC beats Clemson (possible) then it's UNC or OSU .. probably OSU. The key to watch is if UNC moves up right behind OSU in the next poll. Then it might go to UNC but I doubt it. IIRC they played a couple of non-FBS schools. I expect MSU to beat Iowa and be in.
IF Clemson loses it will be (imo)
Bama (1) vs OSU (4)
Mich ST (3) vs Oklahoma (2)
And really after all, aren't these obviously the 4 best teams. But for the fluke punt play MSU would be
#2, maybe #1
MSU benefited from the fluke punt, so they would not be 1 or 2 if it didn't happen...they wouldn't be in the discussion.
If UNC wins, no way they jump that high. They got beat by a terrible South Carolina team and their best win is Pitt.
We know the following:
1. Bama will not lose to Florida. They are a lock.
2. Oklahoma's season is over. They are a lock
3. The winner of Iowa/Michigan state is a lock.
So, if Clemson loses, you choose between 2 teams imo:
Clemson
Ohio State
Ohio State will be 1-1 against Top 25 teams (beat Michigan, lost to Michigan State)
Clemson will be 2-1 against Top 25 teams (beat ND & Florida State, lost to UNC)
I think Clemson gets the nod. So, I think the 4 are already set regardless of what happens next weekend (unless Bama loses, tey they drop out I believe).