Problem with mucking it up and making it an ugly game is that Nebraska has to make shots.
Nebraska-Creighton week
- Thread starter huskerbaseball13
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Problem with mucking it up and making it an ugly game is that Nebraska has to make shots.
The only players on either side that played in the game at PBA between these two teams are Zierden and Webster. So for the most part, it will be all new for almost everyone involved as far as this series goes. This will certainly be the most hostile atmosphere CU has seen this season.
Here is what concerns me about this game. Of what I'd call quality opponents that Nebraska has played (Dayton, UCLA, VT, Clemson) Nebraska has only outrebounded one of those and that was Clemson + 8. The other 3 were VT -1, UCLA Even, Dayton -4. Also, Nebraska's 3 point shooting in those four games in order played, 37.5, 25, 19, 22. Yes none of those games were at PBA. I'm not sure I'd call La Tech a quality opponent but throw them in and that is -4 and 33%.
When I look at CU's quality opponents so far regarding rebounding and 3 point %. Wisky -15 and 50%, WSU +7 and 53.6%, NC St +11 48.1%, Miss -10 and 61.5%, Buffalo +2 and 35%, Akron -1 and 33%. (Yes I'd consider Buffalo and Akron as quality teams as Buffalo has been to the dance and both could contend this year in the MAC).
So Nebraska hasn't shown they are a great rebounding team. CU has been up and down, and shown they can still win, even if they are outboarded significantly. Nebraska's best day on the boards they blew it against Clemson.
Three point shooting is what scares me badly. Only one game over 30% for Nebraska. CU's last two games at home have been much lower than the the four prior. Lack luster last two games just going through the motions, or shooting slump?
A bad day from 3 for CU is a good day for Nebraska. Even on days they shoot in the 30% from 3, they can still get into the 80s and 90s. We've all seen over the past few years that CU does find ways to get open looks against Nebraska's man defense.
Points scored for Nebraska in those five game games average is 65.4. CU's average in the above listed six is 91. Nebraska against quality teams is at best around an 80 points per game team. CU's worst scoring performance was against Wisky with 79, when they were outboarded by 15.
Lets Just say Nebraska can hold CU to below 80, and lets say Webster and Watson both play just incredible and both get 20 points (which I think is unlikely as they will IMO try to do what VT did, and take Watson out of the game). That means Nebraska needs 40 points out of the rest of the roster. That means Jacobsen, Morrow, McVeigh, Gill, Roby and JT (just going with guys who I think will actually play some minutes) would need to average almost 7 points.
I'm not saying Nebraska can't win this game, but I think it will take the best 3 point shooting game they've had this year against a good team. It will also take two guys not named Watson and Webster to play really well and score double digits. If Jacobsen and/or Morrow get into foul trouble look out.
I just don't like the matchups in man-to-man for Nebraska. If Nebraska isn't hauling *** back on D after CU's defensive boards, they're in trouble.
What it comes down to is Nebraska will have to play one of their best, most complete games of the year so far, and CU will have to play one of their worst so far. That's asking a lot. I just don't know if Nebraska can outscore Creighton.
Here is what concerns me about this game. Of what I'd call quality opponents that Nebraska has played (Dayton, UCLA, VT, Clemson) Nebraska has only outrebounded one of those and that was Clemson + 8. The other 3 were VT -1, UCLA Even, Dayton -4. Also, Nebraska's 3 point shooting in those four games in order played, 37.5, 25, 19, 22. Yes none of those games were at PBA. I'm not sure I'd call La Tech a quality opponent but throw them in and that is -4 and 33%.
When I look at CU's quality opponents so far regarding rebounding and 3 point %. Wisky -15 and 50%, WSU +7 and 53.6%, NC St +11 48.1%, Miss -10 and 61.5%, Buffalo +2 and 35%, Akron -1 and 33%. (Yes I'd consider Buffalo and Akron as quality teams as Buffalo has been to the dance and both could contend this year in the MAC).
So Nebraska hasn't shown they are a great rebounding team. CU has been up and down, and shown they can still win, even if they are outboarded significantly. Nebraska's best day on the boards they blew it against Clemson.
Three point shooting is what scares me badly. Only one game over 30% for Nebraska. CU's last two games at home have been much lower than the the four prior. Lack luster last two games just going through the motions, or shooting slump?
A bad day from 3 for CU is a good day for Nebraska. Even on days they shoot in the 30% from 3, they can still get into the 80s and 90s. We've all seen over the past few years that CU does find ways to get open looks against Nebraska's man defense.
Points scored for Nebraska in those five game games average is 65.4. CU's average in the above listed six is 91. Nebraska against quality teams is at best around an 80 points per game team. CU's worst scoring performance was against Wisky with 79, when they were outboarded by 15.
Lets Just say Nebraska can hold CU to below 80, and lets say Webster and Watson both play just incredible and both get 20 points (which I think is unlikely as they will IMO try to do what VT did, and take Watson out of the game). That means Nebraska needs 40 points out of the rest of the roster. That means Jacobsen, Morrow, McVeigh, Gill, Roby and JT (just going with guys who I think will actually play some minutes) would need to average almost 7 points.
I'm not saying Nebraska can't win this game, but I think it will take the best 3 point shooting game they've had this year against a good team. It will also take two guys not named Watson and Webster to play really well and score double digits. If Jacobsen and/or Morrow get into foul trouble look out.
I just don't like the matchups in man-to-man for Nebraska. If Nebraska isn't hauling *** back on D after CU's defensive boards, they're in trouble.
What it comes down to is Nebraska will have to play one of their best, most complete games of the year so far, and CU will have to play one of their worst so far. That's asking a lot. I just don't know if Nebraska can outscore Creighton.
one team runs really good offense. the other team likes the 3 man weave. I think Neb will give it a run, but the Jays just have too much for them.
Even though it's still 29 hours until tipoff I'm assuming we are in the clear to discuss the game now that Vegas has set a line?
Will be interesting to see what the line ends up at. Has the over/under been posted?
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I only have one thing to say....**** Creighton. That is all.
Haven't we been blown out the last 3 maybe 4 years correct my memory...
If we can stay with in 6-9 points against the highest rated team in Creighton history at this time of year I'll be surprised..
Really surprise me and knock them off and make my month.
If we can stay with in 6-9 points against the highest rated team in Creighton history at this time of year I'll be surprised..
Really surprise me and knock them off and make my month.
I use my bookie . Com and it's down to 4 but was 4 1/2 an hour ago.
78% of the bets are on Creighton.
78% of the bets are on Creighton.
Not sure where he got 3.5 but that was per Sharpe this morning. Line moving in Nebraska's favor but 78% of the bets on Creighton? Good sign for Nebraska no?
Dropping line to entice more Nebraska bets.
Not sure it's a sign of anything in particular with regards to an outcome.
Not sure it's a sign of anything in particular with regards to an outcome.
Maybe I'm missing something here...but why would the line moving in Nebraska's favor entice more Nebraska bets?
My bad, i was thinking backwards.
You're right if the line is dropping it coukd be a sign Vegas knows something.
Just seems fishy. Hopefully it's a good game tonight and the Huskers come out hot hot hot.
Those calling for a blowout should be surprised if Vegas/Metrics all hold up. Going to be a tight one. Hopefully ending in a Sker win
The other difference is Creighton has no where near the same talent as UCLA. NU 72 CU 66
Spread fell 1/2 point to +4 at 7am and stayed there the majority of the day, late afternoon it bounced it back to 4 1/2 for about an hour, now back to 4.
79% of bets on CU
93% on under 146
79% of bets on CU
93% on under 146
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Probably so but what talent they do have has been able to put the ball in the basket 54% of the time they shoot it. The worst 3pt shooter on their team (with more than 10 attempts, 6 players) shoots 38% from behind the line. That is better than everyone we have except for Webster who is at 42%. Their 3 point shot pct is 44% is better than everyone individually for us and only 4% less than what we shoot from 2 (48%.)
I hope we come out and Glynn and Webster have monster games and Patton gets in early foul trouble and they can't hit a shot.
I am just not counting on their 7 or 8 players, who play regular minutes, all being cold and our 8 players being hot, when the opposite has been true most of the season.
love creighton love nebraska and seeing either lose sucksThis post doesn't add up any one Iota what so ever.
nah it just makes me uncomfortable to watch them play each other but obviously nebraska needs this more than creighton
I think Creighton wins tonight. They are pretty good this year. I think it will be closer than some think. That said, screw Creighton!!!
apparently only NU can travel. Creighton guy hops before he shoots the 3 and no call. I think 3 travel calls on NU and they just ignore a blatant one that results in a 3.
Playing tight. You can tell by the way they are tentative dribbling on the offensive end. Gill's play has been a major disappointment for me so far this year. From all the reports I heard on him last year, I expected him to be at least a 10 pt guy that could stretch the zone. Brutal shooting and he makes stupid mistakes.
People like winners. Creighton wins so Omaha people hop on the bandwagon. When we cant break 5 points 10 minutes into the game. i dont blame people
Also McDermott working over Miles early again. Not a surprise there. Going to need a run