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OFFICIAL NET Thread - 2022/23

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PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
11,681
10,809
78
RUChoppin said:
I think the efficiency metrics are where the blowouts start impacting the ranking. If over the course of a full game, you have a high points per possession and hold your opponent to low points per possession, you will end up winning by a lot.
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Yeah I think so too. It may not directly be about the scoring margin over 10 points but running up a score at the end of a game by making a bunch of meaningless shots can prop up efficiency numbers.
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
ScarletDave said:
Crazy that efficiency matters at all. You can win games but if you take lots of shots and have more #of misses it can sink you. A team wins 60-50 but made 30 baskets on 60 shots is ranked lower than a team wins 60-50 but made 30 baskets on 70 shots. Would be nice to see a ranking of simply: did you win or lose the game, and how many games did the teams you beat win, how many losses did the team you lost to have, etc and let the math play out.
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But if two teams each score 60 points, and one did it in 60 possessions by slowing the game down and running clock and another did it in 80 possessions pushing the pace with a ton of misses.... who has the higher quality offense? If it came down to 1 possession, which team would be more likely to score? Similarly, one holds their opponent to 50 on 60 possessions and the other holds them to 50 points over 80 possessions, which team had a more stifling defense? If it came down to 1 possession, which would be more likely to get a stop?

There are 350+ teams - there need to be more factors considered than just wins and losses to differentiate.
 
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fatsam98

fatsam98

Heisman
Mar 23, 2005
42,399
35,076
113
PSAL_Hoops said:
Yeah I think so too. It may not directly be about the scoring margin over 10 points but running up a score at the end of a game by making a bunch of meaningless shots can prop up efficiency numbers.
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Last year Loyola Chicago moved up 8 places (37 to 29) in one night for beating Evansville by 51. On the same night, Michigan beat us by 10 and stayed at a low 30-something NET (they moved up 1 but then Loyola jumped then and they were back to where they started the night).

From that perspective the NET is seriously flawed, but maybe it will actually help us this year.
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
fatsam98 said:
Last year Loyola Chicago moved up 8 places (37 to 29) in one night for beating Evansville by 51. On the same night, Michigan beat us by 10 and stayed at a low 30-something NET (they moved up 1 but then Loyola jumped then and they were back to where they started the night).

From that perspective the NET is seriously flawed, but maybe it will actually help us this year.
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It's also MUCH easier to jump places when you are farther down the rankings, because there's much more room to move upward and the teams in your general range are all separated by a hair's width.

Just like in school, it's easier to improve your grade from a 60 to a 70 than it is to improve from an 85 to a 95.
 
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F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,897
0
PSAL_Hoops said:
Technically, yes. But I thought the NET supposedly incorporates other systems like KenPom into the secret formula which would explain why blowing the snot out of bad teams ends up boosting the NET.
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bac2therac said:
I dont think so
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PSAL_Hoops said:
I thought efficiency is baked into the NET somehow?
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Right, they aren’t directly using Kenpom but they are using adjusted efficiency which is essentially the same thing Kenpom is doing. Kenpom may have some “secret sauce” type stuff that wouldn’t be in the NET and they don’t use any preseason ratings at any point.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,897
0
RUChoppin said:
It's also MUCH easier to jump places when you are farther down the rankings, because there's much more room to move upward and the teams in your general range are all separated by a hair's width.

Just like in school, it's easier to improve your grade from a 60 to a 70 than it is to improve from an 85 to a 95.
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Yes, using Kenpom as a proxy the gap between #1 and #25 is the same as the gap between #25 and #85, which is the same as the gap between #85 and #176.
 
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S

Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,448
49,369
113
goru7 said:
UMASS Lowell another 20 point road win over a bad LIU team but still a 20 point road win. They were favored by 15 and by 8.5 in the first half. Up at half by 14 and by the end by 20. Had both bets so another good night all around.
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I hope they win their conference so I can pick them as an upset in my bracket. They were a legit good team. If we didn't show up that day, we could have taken an L
 
P

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
11,681
10,809
78
Scangg said:
I hope they win their conference so I can pick them as an upset in my bracket. They were a legit good team. If we didn't show up that day, we could have taken an L
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The UMass game will be huge in shaping their NET for the season. Hopefully they will be competitive. A win would be awesome. Outside of Rhode Island (and they aren’t even good this year) - they don’t play anyone else decent. Their conference is really weak.
 
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R

RU82

Heisman
Jun 7, 2001
30,331
28,869
113
RutgHoops said:
Correct. Margin of victory however does factor. Beating Rider, CCSU, Columbia and Sacred Heart all by 30+ may have given us a bit more of a boost in NET than those wins should. Should beating those teams by 30+ instead of 18 (for example) factor?
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It also doesn’t hurt that UMASS Lowell is 9-1 with most of their games not very close.
 
G

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,093
7,144
113
Scangg said:
I hope they win their conference so I can pick them as an upset in my bracket. They were a legit good team. If we didn't show up that day, we could have taken an L
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They have a chance because their conference is not great this year and they are winning on the road by 10 -20 points per game. Their defense travels and although I thought they had a number of offensive players and looked decent on offense , they are sitting at 164 on Kenpom’s offensive efficiency with a 102 .4 and for comparison we are 102 with a 105.7 offensive efficiency number. I thought theirs would be higher.
 
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goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,093
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PSAL_Hoops said:
The UMass game will be huge in shaping their NET for the season. Hopefully they will be competitive. A win would be awesome. Outside of Rhode Island (and they aren’t even good this year) - they don’t play anyone else decent. Their conference is really weak.
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UMASS is 80 in Net and they are 53 and on the road. They have played really well on the road. Think game goes to the wire. Doubt their NET will change much in a negative way.
 
P

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
11,681
10,809
78
kcg88 said:
Because we know they won't end up there. That's why KenPom and Torvik keep some preseason ratings baked in for a while.

The rating itself isn't dumb. The problem is people will see that and not understand it and use it to argue against the NET altogether.
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No - I disagree. This time isn’t like Colgate with a top 10 NET and no good wins during the COVID year because of weird formula anomalies. If Sam Houston keeps winning they will maintain their spot and be like Butler was the year it won the pre-season NIT as the Horizon league darling. When you beat a multiple major conference teams and don’t lose to cupcakes as a mid major you earn respect. If they start losing to bad team their NET will drop.
 
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Z

Zak57

Heisman
Jul 5, 2011
10,840
10,948
113
Should we just use this as a constantly updated NET thread or start a new one? I'm sure we'll be posting about it everyday until the tourney is selected.

Temple, Miami, and UMASS Lowell all dropped back from yesterday.
 
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PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
11,681
10,809
78
All UMass Lowell can do is win the games on their schedule. Can’t help that LIU stinks.
 
P

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
11,681
10,809
78
Under the radar game Sunday that could be landmine preventative - Minny vs Miss State. If Minny wins that one they’ll get a huge bump in NET. We play them twice and I’d prefer for neither to be Q4. Who needs that pressure. Will be Miss State’s first true road game.
 
E

Eagleton95.99

All-American
Jul 25, 2001
7,511
6,428
113
RUChoppin said:
But if two teams each score 60 points, and one did it in 60 possessions by slowing the game down and running clock and another did it in 80 possessions pushing the pace with a ton of misses.... who has the higher quality offense? If it came down to 1 possession, which team would be more likely to score? Similarly, one holds their opponent to 50 on 60 possessions and the other holds them to 50 points over 80 possessions, which team had a more stifling defense? If it came down to 1 possession, which would be more likely to get a stop?

There are 350+ teams - there need to be more factors considered than just wins and losses to differentiate.
Click to expand...
Do we know that efficiency numbers are assessed as the total for a game and not on a per possession basis? I'd assume, just because that obviously makes more sense, that it's on a per possession basis.
 
R

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
Eagleton96 said:
Do we know that efficiency numbers are assessed as the total for a game and not on a per possession basis? I'd assume, just because that obviously makes more sense, that it's on a per possession basis.
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No idea, but likely I'd think it's likely per possession. Still, beating up on cupcakes helps the per possession numbers, too, especially this early in the season.
 
E

Eagleton95.99

All-American
Jul 25, 2001
7,511
6,428
113
RUChoppin said:
No idea, but likely I'd think it's likely per possession. Still, beating up on cupcakes helps the per possession numbers, too, especially this early in the season.
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If it's per possession, than the style of play won't matter. Both teams get roughly the same number of possessions. O and D efficiency would be based on TOs and points per possession.

Beating up on cupcakes would matter. But does the score take the level of competition into account? If you beat up on a cupcake slightly less than another team beat them up, then they would score you worse. Or is it raw numbers that would advantage eating lots of cookies?
 
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goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,093
7,144
113
Some tremendous changes with 1 game . Michigan State up from 94-72 for beating Penn State which drops from 51 to 76. That win helps Northwestern who just beat Mich State and moved them from 77 to 69 without playing. Other Power 6 movers St, John’s from 73-60 ; Oregon from 93-84 and Washington State from 79-64. Power 6 losers of their game last night drops Texas Tech from 62-75; Florida from 65-79. Interesting Miami dropped from 49-52 winning the shootout with CORNELL 107-105 , while Cornell went from 128 to 105. Missouri is 9-0 and just dropped from 35-39.

The outliers from the non Power 6 ; FAU which hammered FGCU went from 21-11. FGCU went from 74-97. Indiana State who beat Southern Illinois on the road went from 96-74 and SI went from 81-96. VCU lost another game and went from 117-144 so that Temple win does not look as great but Temple hardly moved with their 10 point win over St. Joes and despite VCU’s loss. There were other big movers in the smaller conferences but the biggest move was Utah Valley who is only 4-4 but went from 194 to 138, 56 point jump. Wow! Also Jacksonville who beat VCU on the road by 11 went up from 97 to 65 another huge 32 spot jump.
 
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B

Big boy stan

All-Conference
Oct 9, 2017
950
1,286
93
I am a little surprise that they publish the NET rankings this early. Every game seems to cause a huge amount of movement. Really adds to the criticism of the validity of the ranking itself. I would think keeping it unpublished until Jan 1 would make more sense.
 
R

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
Posted this in the wrong thread.

RU is now #24

Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
8 - Indiana (W)
26 - @Ohio St (L*)
54 - @Miami (L)

Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
37 - UMass-Lowell (W)

Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
157 - Temple (L)

Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 141+ Away)
197 - Rider (W)
281 - Sacred Heart (W)
336 - Central CT St (W)
345 - Columbia (W)


Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
3 - @Purdue
8 - @Indiana
10 - @Illinois
15 - Maryland
23 - Iowa
23 - @Iowa
26 - Ohio St
61 - @Wisconsin
70 - @Northwestern
72 - @MSU

Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
66 - Nebraska
70 - Northwestern
72 - (N)MSU
79 - @Penn St

Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
79 - Penn St
81 - Wake Forest
90 - Michigan
114 - Seton Hall

Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
195 - Bucknell
219 - Coppin St
246 - Minnesota
246 - @Minnesota


Notes
- Only 3 remaining teams are ranked lower than SHU right now
- Minnesota is ranked lower than both Bucknell and Coppin St
- Penn St is on the cusp of being a Home Q2 and Away Q1
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
238,266
167,995
113
We can see the inevitable descent of Sam Houston and Southern Mississippi down the rankings.
 
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