OFFICIAL NET Thread - 2022/23

[fluoxetine]

The only reason would be to know how to focus your teams energy for future games. For example, lots of conjecture on this thread that running up big margin of victory have large impact but perhaps its more about holding the opponent below their average or scoring above yours. If you were certain what went in to the NET, you could game plan for it.

This isn't conjecture, this is known. The NCAA has flat out stated that one of the two components (and the only one that counts scores) is adjusted efficiency margin. This is literally just how many more points you score than your opponent per possession, adjusted for the opponents own adjusted efficiency margin. The things that aren't known are (a) what exactly is the team value index (we know it is a win/loss only metric, but not its exact computation) and (b) what are the relative weights of the TVI and the adjusted net efficiency margin.

Things like holding opponent below their average, scoring above yours, vegas lines, etc are not directly involved in the NET (obviously both holding opponents to fewer points and scoring more points helps your efficiency margin but there isn't some special weight on doing this in a specific way).

 

[fluoxetine]

Bubbletology update:

Ironclad 1-bid leagues: 21
I'm moving the A-10 and the MAC to this side because of Dayton's loss to George Washington and Kent State's loss to Northern Illinois. Kent State is 0-3 in Q1 with no remaining opportunities, and now they have a Q4 loss. Even if they won out all the way to the MAC title game before losing, I don't think they'd get in. That'd be five losses. An analogue would be 2015 Murray State which went 25-4 but had no signature win and weren't even First Four Out. I'm finally making the call on the A-10 but I reserve the right to resurrect them if Saint Louis runs the table, but their 6-1 A-10 record has come almost entirely against the bottom of the league. Pepper in a loss to Dayton or VCU (both of whom they have to play twice still) and that won't be an at-large worthy resume. I also moved the A-Sun (Liberty) here because their resume is basically equivalent to Kent State's and if they take another loss to an A-Sun team, even in the conference tournament title game, I don't think they get in because their best win is Bradley and their second-best win is, uh, Bryant on a neutral?
21 bids

Possible 2-bid leagues: 3
This is the CAA (Charleston), C-USA (FAU), and WCC (Gonzaga/SMC). Charleston and FAU are still sitting on one loss and in position for a bid if they keep winning in the regular season. Nothing has changed in the WCC even if LMU's win over Gonzaga. LMU and Santa Clara are still out of the conversation with 4-3 conference records so that league is still locked in for two bids. I'll be conservative and allow for a bid thief here to call it five from this group.
5 bids

That leaves 42 up for grabs among the top eight conferences, which is unchanged from last week. Eyeballing it (2.5 basically means they’ll get either 2 or 3 bids):

AAC: 2.5 (Houston, Memphis, UCF in the mix)
The wrong team got the win over Houston. Memphis and UCF could both really use that to bolster their resume. UCF is on the downswing with consecutive losses to Tulane and USF, the latter a Q3 to go with an earlier Q4 loss this season, and now they have to face the Cougars who you have to assume are not going to drop two straight. Memphis on the other hand is chugging along just fine. Temple got the win over Houston but they're just 12-9 with a whopping six Q3/Q4 losses.

MWC: 4 (San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, New Mexico, Nevada)
Bumping them up from 3.5 to 4 as the top five teams in this league kept it clean, the only losses among the group coming to another. Utah State is still the odd one out with two Q4 losses but they're #35 in the NET and have plenty of good chances left, starting tonight at San Diego State. The others have solidified their standing and four bids is looking way more likely than three at this point.

Pac-12: 3.5 (UCLA, Arizona, USC, Arizona State, Utah)
Arizona State failed to get a win as the LA schools came through Tempe, knocking them down to 6-3 in the league. Their resume is still better than the Trojans for now. Big potential for upheaval this week as ASU is on the road against the Oregon schools and Utah is in Washington to face the Huskies and Cougars. If they come through that at 4-0 I'll probably bump this to four bids next update.

Big East: 5 (UConn, Creighton, Providence, Marquette, Xavier)
Nothing new here. Seton Hall no-showed a game that would've propelled them onto the bubble and lost by 21 at home to Marquette. The Pirates probably still have the next-best shot outside the top five. Beat @Butler, @St. John's, and DePaul in the next three and that'll set up another huge home opportunity, this time against Creighton. Meanwhile St. John's lost at the Garden to Villanova and have to play Creighton in Omaha tonight. Win that to leapfrog SHU, but they'd still be bubble-adjacent at best.

ACC: 6 (Duke, Virginia, UNC, Miami, Clemson, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest)
Thankfully Syracuse lost a terrible basketball game to North Carolina to keep them from joining this group. Wake Forest has a big three game stretch coming up: @Pitt, vs. NC State, @Duke. Two Q1 games and one Q2. Pittsburgh lost a bad one at home to Florida State and needs a bounceback tonight against the Deacs. Right now Pitt is the first team out at Bracket Matrix, so yeah, that's a big one. Six bids still feels right for this league as they've mostly maintained the firewall between the top and the bottom and not taken horrible losses.

Big 12: 6.5 (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, TCU, Baylor, pick one of the bottom 4)
The eight bid dream is over and the seven bid light is starting to flicker. I'm considering 17-14 as the magic record to reach as I don't believe the committee will pick a 16-15 team no matter how strong the conference. Texas Tech (10-9) hosts West Virginia (11-8) tonight and it's basically impossible to see how the loser of that gets to 17 wins. And Texas Tech's not going to go winless in league play, right? Oklahoma State (11-9 right now) has an easy SEC Challenge draw with a home game against Ole Miss that's basically a must-win. West Virginia gets stuck playing Auburn, but at least that's at home. Also at home is Oklahoma (11-9), but they have to play the hottest team in the country in Alabama.

SEC: 6 (Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Texas A&M)
Arkansas did indeed steady the ship with home wins over LSU and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lose their "in the mix" status as they're 1-7 since an 11-0 start. Wanna get back on? Win at Alabama tonight. The two teams currently in the field per Bracket Matrix but closest to the cut line are Kentucky and Missouri and both have huge B12 Challenge home opportunities with Kansas and Iowa State respectively. Losses there don't really hurt the profile but a top-10 Q1 win would be a huge shot in the arm. Florida can also sneak into this mix with a road win at Kansas State. Six bids still feels right.

Big Ten: 8.5 (Everyone except Nebraska and Minnesota)
The Big Ten continues to Big Ten at extreme levels. The only teams on a winning streak right now are Purdue and Indiana. Purdue's won six straight and Indiana has three in a row. Nobody else is even at two. Second place and 13th place are separated by just three games, so we'll wait another week. Bracket Matrix currently has ten teams in the field, but three of them are Last Four In so that number will shrink as the losses mount.

Total: 42 bids
So I'd project two of the leagues projected at x.5 to go OVER and two to go UNDER.

This looks very good. I would still put the Big 12 at an even 7 and knock the B1G down to an even 8. In the possible 2-bid league sections, I agree with 5 total bids from there.. CAA I think is pretty unlikely, CUSA maybe 60/40 to get 2/1 bids and the WCC is an absolutely lock for 2 and will have 3 if someone other than the Zags or St Mary's manage to win the conference tournament.

 

[Jtg=04131996]

This looks very good. I would still put the Big 12 at an even 7 and knock the B1G down to an even 8. In the possible 2-bid league sections, I agree with 5 total bids from there.. CAA I think is pretty unlikely, CUSA maybe 60/40 to get 2/1 bids and the WCC is an absolutely lock for 2 and will have 3 if someone other than the Zags or St Mary's manage to win the conference tournament.

Disagree wholeheartedly. As it stands Big 12 deserves 6 and Big Ten deserves 9. I’m not sure anyone can even debate that. So 6.5 and 8.5 is more than fair.

 

[bac2therac]

i really do not see this year as an interesting bubble year. Not seeing as many mid majors. Its almost like everything is cut and dry. I know still 10-11 games left to play for most so its still on early side but not impressed with those last 4 in first 8 out schools

The Big 10 is looking pretty good to me for 9...lots to shake out. Penn State is a school that I think its in big trouble right now. Their profile is lacking. Yes they won at Illinois and beat Indiana but thats it and they did nothing ooc. Michigan is another that like last year have a bloated overall record but last year they had better nitty gritty, that will not save them. They have lots of work to do. Still not sold on Northwestern being able to hold it together down the stretch...if they get these next 2, thats going to help

 

[Zak57]

i really do not see this year as an interesting bubble year. Not seeing as many mid majors. Its almost like everything is cut and dry. I know still 10-11 games left to play for most so its still on early side but not impressed with those last 4 in first 8 out schools

The Big 10 is looking pretty good to me for 9...lots to shake out. Penn State is a school that I think its in big trouble right now. Their profile is lacking. Yes they won at Illinois and beat Indiana but thats it and they did nothing ooc. Michigan is another that like last year have a bloated overall record but last year they had better nitty gritty, that will not save them. They have lots of work to do. Still not sold on Northwestern being able to hold it together down the stretch...if they get these next 2, thats going to help

Will your first bacatology be out Feb 6?

 

[knightfan7]

Will your first bacatology be out Feb 6?

The definitive source of the NCAA Tournament projections.

 

[bac2therac]

Will your first bacatology be out Feb 6?

yeah looks like February 6 or 7. That puts us at 5 weeks of in depth bracketology. Just think anything more is too soon. I have not even done any kind of attempt at a bracket even in my own personal time.

Next week probably just a write up piece with a general outline of how things stand. Looks like last year I did this on Feb 7 so looks like I am breaking my own rules and will do bracketology a week earlier this season...I think a few years back i didnt start one until maybe the 18th of Feb

 

[Zak57]

yeah looks like February 6 or 7. That puts us at 5 weeks of in depth bracketology. Just think anything more is too soon. I have not even done any kind of attempt at a bracket even in my own personal time.

Next week probably just a write up piece with a general outline of how things stand

Looking forward! Getting down to the nitty gritty of the season.

 

[kcg88]

i really do not see this year as an interesting bubble year. Not seeing as many mid majors. Its almost like everything is cut and dry. I know still 10-11 games left to play for most so its still on early side but not impressed with those last 4 in first 8 out schools

The Big 10 is looking pretty good to me for 9...lots to shake out. Penn State is a school that I think its in big trouble right now. Their profile is lacking. Yes they won at Illinois and beat Indiana but thats it and they did nothing ooc. Michigan is another that like last year have a bloated overall record but last year they had better nitty gritty, that will not save them. They have lots of work to do. Still not sold on Northwestern being able to hold it together down the stretch...if they get these next 2, thats going to help

Here are the 10 seeds, the 11 seeds, and every team listed in at least one field on Bracket Matrix:

Missouri
Creighton
Memphis
Arizona State
Maryland
Northwestern
Ohio State
Kentucky
Pittsburgh
Penn State
USC
Oklahoma
Utah State
Wake Forest
Oklahoma State
UCF
Mississippi State
Utah

Everyone except Utah State is in a big boy league unless you really think of Memphis or UCF as a true mid-major. It's all major conference bloat. Last year in the final month and a half you had San Francisco, Loyola Chicago, Wyoming, Davidson, VCU, North Texas, Dayton, Saint Louis, BYU, and Belmont all at least somewhere close to the picture.

Probably a consequence of the transfer portal, as well as just randomness. Aside from the fact that they're simply taking the best players from the mid majors, they're also not longer playing as many freshmen in November. They're playing upperclassmen and widening the gap over the mid majors. Look at how many SEC teams had bloated records: LSU was 12-1, Mississippi State was 11-0, Georgia was 10-3. None of them are any good but they prevent lower conferences from picking up wins.

For a more concrete example Providence beat Rider by one point in their very first game. That doesn't happen if they're playing freshmen instead of upperclassmen transfers.

 

[bac2therac]

Looking forward! Getting down to the nitty gritty of the season.

i think the problem with early bracketology is the volatility of the seeding. With 10-11 conference games to play for most schools, the resumes are just incomplete. I mean with Rutgers they could be as high as 5 but as low as 7 right now. Case could be made for both. The Big 10 is so competitive night in and out with 9 or 10 schools projected in at the moment how do you seperate them. Need to see more games played. Ditto for the Big 12. how on earth do you seperate the seeding with all those schools in the top 20 NET. I see Kansas is kept near the one or two line but do they deserve that over Iowa State or Baylor or TCU or Kansas State. Should a team that lost 3 in a row still be that high? Their non conference stuff is insanely good. How is TCU a 5 in the matrix.

 

[bac2therac]

Here are the 10 seeds, the 11 seeds, and every team listed in at least one field on Bracket Matrix:

Missouri
Creighton
Memphis
Arizona State
Maryland
Northwestern
Ohio State
Kentucky
Pittsburgh
Penn State
USC
Oklahoma
Utah State
Wake Forest
Oklahoma State
UCF
Mississippi State
Utah

Everyone except Utah State is in a big boy league unless you really think of Memphis or UCF as a true mid-major. It's all major conference bloat. Last year in the final month and a half you had San Francisco, Loyola Chicago, Wyoming, Davidson, VCU, North Texas, Dayton, Saint Louis, BYU, and Belmont all at least somewhere close to the picture.

Probably a consequence of the transfer portal, as well as just randomness. Aside from the fact that they're simply taking the best players from the mid majors, they're also not longer playing as many freshmen in November. They're playing upperclassmen and widening the gap over the mid majors. Look at how many SEC teams had bloated records: LSU was 12-1, Mississippi State was 11-0, Georgia was 10-3. None of them are any good but they prevent lower conferences from picking up wins.

For a more concrete example Providence beat Rider by one point in their very first game. That doesn't happen if they're playing freshmen instead of upperclassmen transfers.

Yeah last year was a great year for bubble discussion and the RU profile with the NET was scandalous and really made things interesting. I miss not having anything from the Missouri Valley and even that damn A10. Its surprising in a year where parity is everywhere, it mainly is concentrated among the top 6 or 7 conferences. You are right, the portal is definitely having an effect. When you can cherry pick the best juniors and seniors from the mid majors and even low majors this is what you get.

 

[kcg88]

Yeah last year was a great year for bubble discussion and the RU profile with the NET was scandalous and really made things interesting. I miss not having anything from the Missouri Valley and even that damn A10. Its surprising in a year where parity is everywhere, it mainly is concentrated among the top 6 or 7 conferences. You are right, the portal is definitely having an effect. When you can cherry pick the best juniors and seniors from the mid majors and even low majors this is what you get.

Oddly enough we have more individual Q4 losses this year. Last year Rutgers' Q4 loss was such a big deal. But this year TCU, Boise State, Ohio State, Kentucky, Utah State (2), Iowa, Texas A&M, Arizona State, Clemson (2), UCF, Pittsburgh, and Michigan all have at least one. And yes losing to Lafayette is a lot worse than losing to Minnesota or South Carolina but to some extent Rutgers benefitted from there only being four quadrants (I know, it's by definition). If there was a 5th quadrant for extra stinky losses Rutgers would've been the only team with a Q5 loss and would've stood out more.

The only other Q4 losses among at-large worthy teams last year were UNC (to #195 Pitt), San Francisco (to #180 Portland), and Boise State (to #276 Cal Bakersfield, but Boise won the MWC tournament anyway). Losing to #180 is a lot different from losing to #323 Lafayette.

But on the whole it seems that high majors have separated a bit, and then parity at both levels means there's a lot of viable high-majors (because the wins are spread around) and not many viable mid-majors (because even the top ones are taking too many losses)

 

[goru7]

Bubbletology update:

Ironclad 1-bid leagues: 21
I'm moving the A-10 and the MAC to this side because of Dayton's loss to George Washington and Kent State's loss to Northern Illinois. Kent State is 0-3 in Q1 with no remaining opportunities, and now they have a Q4 loss. Even if they won out all the way to the MAC title game before losing, I don't think they'd get in. That'd be five losses. An analogue would be 2015 Murray State which went 25-4 but had no signature win and weren't even First Four Out. I'm finally making the call on the A-10 but I reserve the right to resurrect them if Saint Louis runs the table, but their 6-1 A-10 record has come almost entirely against the bottom of the league. Pepper in a loss to Dayton or VCU (both of whom they have to play twice still) and that won't be an at-large worthy resume. I also moved the A-Sun (Liberty) here because their resume is basically equivalent to Kent State's and if they take another loss to an A-Sun team, even in the conference tournament title game, I don't think they get in because their best win is Bradley and their second-best win is, uh, Bryant on a neutral?
21 bids

Possible 2-bid leagues: 3
This is the CAA (Charleston), C-USA (FAU), and WCC (Gonzaga/SMC). Charleston and FAU are still sitting on one loss and in position for a bid if they keep winning in the regular season. Nothing has changed in the WCC even if LMU's win over Gonzaga. LMU and Santa Clara are still out of the conversation with 4-3 conference records so that league is still locked in for two bids. I'll be conservative and allow for a bid thief here to call it five from this group.
5 bids

That leaves 42 up for grabs among the top eight conferences, which is unchanged from last week. Eyeballing it (2.5 basically means they’ll get either 2 or 3 bids):

AAC: 2.5 (Houston, Memphis, UCF in the mix)
The wrong team got the win over Houston. Memphis and UCF could both really use that to bolster their resume. UCF is on the downswing with consecutive losses to Tulane and USF, the latter a Q3 to go with an earlier Q4 loss this season, and now they have to face the Cougars who you have to assume are not going to drop two straight. Memphis on the other hand is chugging along just fine. Temple got the win over Houston but they're just 12-9 with a whopping six Q3/Q4 losses.

MWC: 4 (San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, New Mexico, Nevada)
Bumping them up from 3.5 to 4 as the top five teams in this league kept it clean, the only losses among the group coming to another. Utah State is still the odd one out with two Q4 losses but they're #35 in the NET and have plenty of good chances left, starting tonight at San Diego State. The others have solidified their standing and four bids is looking way more likely than three at this point.

Pac-12: 3.5 (UCLA, Arizona, USC, Arizona State, Utah)
Arizona State failed to get a win as the LA schools came through Tempe, knocking them down to 6-3 in the league. Their resume is still better than the Trojans for now. Big potential for upheaval this week as ASU is on the road against the Oregon schools and Utah is in Washington to face the Huskies and Cougars. If they come through that at 4-0 I'll probably bump this to four bids next update.

Big East: 5 (UConn, Creighton, Providence, Marquette, Xavier)
Nothing new here. Seton Hall no-showed a game that would've propelled them onto the bubble and lost by 21 at home to Marquette. The Pirates probably still have the next-best shot outside the top five. Beat @Butler, @St. John's, and DePaul in the next three and that'll set up another huge home opportunity, this time against Creighton. Meanwhile St. John's lost at the Garden to Villanova and have to play Creighton in Omaha tonight. Win that to leapfrog SHU, but they'd still be bubble-adjacent at best.

ACC: 6 (Duke, Virginia, UNC, Miami, Clemson, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest)
Thankfully Syracuse lost a terrible basketball game to North Carolina to keep them from joining this group. Wake Forest has a big three game stretch coming up: @Pitt, vs. NC State, @Duke. Two Q1 games and one Q2. Pittsburgh lost a bad one at home to Florida State and needs a bounceback tonight against the Deacs. Right now Pitt is the first team out at Bracket Matrix, so yeah, that's a big one. Six bids still feels right for this league as they've mostly maintained the firewall between the top and the bottom and not taken horrible losses.

Big 12: 6.5 (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, TCU, Baylor, pick one of the bottom 4)
The eight bid dream is over and the seven bid light is starting to flicker. I'm considering 17-14 as the magic record to reach as I don't believe the committee will pick a 16-15 team no matter how strong the conference. Texas Tech (10-9) hosts West Virginia (11-8) tonight and it's basically impossible to see how the loser of that gets to 17 wins. And Texas Tech's not going to go winless in league play, right? Oklahoma State (11-9 right now) has an easy SEC Challenge draw with a home game against Ole Miss that's basically a must-win. West Virginia gets stuck playing Auburn, but at least that's at home. Also at home is Oklahoma (11-9), but they have to play the hottest team in the country in Alabama.

SEC: 6 (Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Texas A&M)
Arkansas did indeed steady the ship with home wins over LSU and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lose their "in the mix" status as they're 1-7 since an 11-0 start. Wanna get back on? Win at Alabama tonight. The two teams currently in the field per Bracket Matrix but closest to the cut line are Kentucky and Missouri and both have huge B12 Challenge home opportunities with Kansas and Iowa State respectively. Losses there don't really hurt the profile but a top-10 Q1 win would be a huge shot in the arm. Florida can also sneak into this mix with a road win at Kansas State. Six bids still feels right.

Big Ten: 8.5 (Everyone except Nebraska and Minnesota)
The Big Ten continues to Big Ten at extreme levels. The only teams on a winning streak right now are Purdue and Indiana. Purdue's won six straight and Indiana has three in a row. Nobody else is even at two. Second place and 13th place are separated by just three games, so we'll wait another week. Bracket Matrix currently has ten teams in the field, but three of them are Last Four In so that number will shrink as the losses mount.

Total: 42 bids
So I'd project two of the leagues projected at x.5 to go OVER and two to go UNDER.

Really good analysis and breakdown as I have some minor tweaks. MWC is at 4.5 as their 5th will be battling SEC 7th , ACC7th and BIG 10 9th for final bid. I would PAC 12 to 4 from 3.5 since Arizona State unless they collapse are in now ; ACC is either 6.5 or 7 instead of 6 as 6 are locks and PITT, Wake and Va. Tech will be fighting to the end ; Big 12 I would move to 7 from 6.5 since they are showing every day they are the best conference in the country and if they win most of their SEC challenge games this year then WVU , Oklahoma or Okla State even with a 16-15 record get in over all the other conference bubbles because no other conference has 6 teams that have a decent chance to make the Final Four; SEC at 6.5 instead of 6 and the Chalkenge will go a long way to getting them closer to 7 or closer to 6 ; BIG 10 is down to 8 as the NET numbers for our bubbles have dropped the last few weeks. Wisconsin , Penn State , Northwestern and Ohio State have a lot of work to do to get off the bubble. My total is 41.5 and if you give ACC 7 then it is 42 teams.

 

[bac2therac]

I am seeing alot of 8s and 9s for Florida Atlantic. I know the NET but I just cannot see them seeded that high. For them Im seeing a 10, 11 and even 12 to set up that 5-12 matchup.

 

[Scangg]

yeah looks like February 6 or 7. That puts us at 5 weeks of in depth bracketology. Just think anything more is too soon. I have not even done any kind of attempt at a bracket even in my own personal time.

Next week probably just a write up piece with a general outline of how things stand. Looks like last year I did this on Feb 7 so looks like I am breaking my own rules and will do bracketology a week earlier this season...I think a few years back i didnt start one until maybe the 18th of Feb

 

[kcg88]

Really good analysis and breakdown as I have some minor tweaks. MWC is at 4.5 as their 5th will be battling SEC 7th , ACC7th and BIG 10 9th for final bid. I would PAC 12 to 4 from 3.5 since Arizona State unless they collapse are in now ; ACC is either 6.5 or 7 instead of 6 as 6 are locks and PITT, Wake and Va. Tech will be fighting to the end ; Big 12 I would move to 7 from 6.5 since they are showing every day they are the best conference in the country and if they win most of their SEC challenge games this year then WVU , Oklahoma or Okla State even with a 16-15 record get in over all the other conference bubbles because no other conference has 6 teams that have a decent chance to make the Final Four; SEC at 6.5 instead of 6 and the Chalkenge will go a long way to getting them closer to 7 or closer to 6 ; BIG 10 is down to 8 as the NET numbers for our bubbles have dropped the last few weeks. Wisconsin , Penn State , Northwestern and Ohio State have a lot of work to do to get off the bubble. My total is 41.5 and if you give ACC 7 then it is 42 teams.

Trouble for the MWC is that their 5th is Utah State with two Q4 losses and currently 0 Q1 wins. KenPom projects them to go 7-4 down the stretch but it could work out that none of them are Q1:

@ Fresno State (Q3)
@ Colorado State (Q2)
@ San Jose State (Q2)
vs. Air Force (Q3)
vs. Nevada (Q2)
@ Wyoming (Q3)
@ UNLV (Q2)

Then you've got a resume with 0 Q1 wins and 2 Q4 losses. It'd be close.

 

[bac2therac]

that was a big win for Nevada over New Mexico, had they lost that I would have put them in the odd man out catagory

 

[goru7]

Trouble for the MWC is that their 5th is Utah State with two Q4 losses and currently 0 Q1 wins. KenPom projects them to go 7-4 down the stretch but it could work out that none of them are Q1:

@ Fresno State (Q3)
@ Colorado State (Q2)
@ San Jose State (Q2)
vs. Air Force (Q3)
vs. Nevada (Q2)
@ Wyoming (Q3)
@ UNLV (Q2)

Then you've got a resume with 0 Q1 wins and 2 Q4 losses. It'd be close.

Very true but their Net’s are 21,26 , 30 , 34, 35. They have a chance.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

This looks very good. I would still put the Big 12 at an even 7 and knock the B1G down to an even 8. In the possible 2-bid league sections, I agree with 5 total bids from there.. CAA I think is pretty unlikely, CUSA maybe 60/40 to get 2/1 bids and the WCC is an absolutely lock for 2 and will have 3 if someone other than the Zags or St Mary's manage to win the conference tournament.

Let’s see if either WVU or Oklahoma win their home games against the SEC schools. Going to be hard for them if not.

I also don’t think St Louis is completely out yet. Lots of Q1 and Q2 opportunities for them still and they do have wins over Providence and Memphis. In the end, the committee might just prefer to take a 22-10 A-10 team over a 16-15 Oklahoma.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

Those percentages look extremely high

Those percentages are on the Torvik's site, and not much different, maybe slightly lower, on Ken Pom. That is the position we put ourselves in after 20 games, that we are in a pickem game in any road game left on our schedule, a few games a small underdog after Vegas.

 

[RUChoppin]

RU is now #19

Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
4 - @Purdue (W)
20 - Indiana (W)
26 - @Ohio St (L*)
26 - Ohio St (W)
37 - @Miami (L)
40 - @MSU (L)
46 - @Northwestern (W)

Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
38 - Iowa (L)
42 - Maryland (W)
58 - Penn St (W)
68 - Seton Hall (L)
71 - Wake Forest (W)

Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
126 - (N) Temple (L)
135 - UMass-Lowell (W)

Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
225 - Rider (W)
294 - Bucknell (W)
318 - Coppin St (W)
321 - Sacred Heart (W)
337 - Central CT St (W)
343 - Columbia (W)

Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
20 - @Indiana
27 - @Illinois
38 - @Iowa
40 - (N)MSU
58 - @Penn St
65 - @Wisconsin

Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
46 - Northwestern

Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
77 - Michigan
92 - Nebraska
216 - @Minnesota

Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
216 - Minnesota

 

[Tango Two]

Rutgers holding @ 19

 

[Zak57]

UConn still #7 in NET. I understand how it works but they have no business remaining that high. Does anyone know if they tweak the NET formula every year?

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

UConn still #7 in NET. I understand how it works but they have no business remaining that high. Does anyone know if they tweak the NET formula every year?

It is beyond silly. They have lost 6 of 8 and are 5-6 in conf (yes i know conf record doesnt matter for NCAA).

 

[fluoxetine]

People do this every year. NET is like 75%* Kenpom**. Connecticut is #6 in Kenpom. Mystery solved.

*exact weight not known. 75% for illustrative purposes only
**not literally Kenpom, but the same basic calculation

 

[RUChoppin]

UConn still #7 in NET. I understand how it works but they have no business remaining that high. Does anyone know if they tweak the NET formula every year?

I think someone said they removed scoring margin this year

 

[RedTeamUpstream94]

Those percentages look extremely high

Very high

It’s why algorithms are only a tool. human judgement will always be needed - well least until artificial intelligence fully replaces us .

For example by the math we might have a 96% of beating Minnesota. But does any human really think our chance of winning is even close to that high? They are still a Big10 squad and apparently have been playing much better as of late. No way they only have a 4% chance of winning

 

[fluoxetine]

I think someone said they removed scoring margin this year

They removed the raw scoring margin that was capped at 10 points. Now it is just adjusted efficiency (like Kenpom, and basically 100% correlated with scoring margin but adjusted for opponent and number of possessions) and team value index which is some RPI type thing

 

[fatsam98]

They removed the raw scoring margin that was capped at 10 points. Now it is just adjusted efficiency (like Kenpom, and basically 100% correlated with scoring margin but adjusted for opponent and number of possessions) and team value index which is some RPI type thing

 

[bac2therac]

the value index is completely ****** up

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

the value index is completely ****ed up

Yeah. Same observations on OSU at this point. They shouldn’t be top 30 with their 11-9 profile. Wins over Rutgers, Iowa and @ NW are good but not top 30 level with that loss count (including a Q4 loss).

 

[fluoxetine]

Net efficiency is basically just scoring margin. The only difference is that it is per possession as opposed to per game.

Adjusted net efficiency is just that adjusted for opponent and home court advantage. So if I play against an opponent on a neutral court and their adj net efficiency is +5 points per 100 possessions and I beat them by 3 points per 100 possessions then my adjusted net efficiency for that game is +8 points per 100 possessions (+3 raw, +5 for the opponent).

I probably wouldn't say that to a five year old.. the real five year old explanation is just "efficiency = scoring margin with some tweaks that don't matter very much"

 

[kcg88]

Got bored and scrolled through some of the bacatology threads from last year. Kinda fun to go back through the highs and lows (not as fun to swipe past pages and pages of arguing about our OOC schedule last year). Also a reminder of how quickly things can change even as it gets to the final games. Early in conference tournament week I felt great about being above the Dayton line, by the end I was praying we'd make it to Dayton.

In the middle of February we thought Iowa and UNC were frauds. Virginia Tech had great computer numbers but a bad resume -- and then won the ACC tournament.

 

[fluoxetine]

the value index is completely ****ed up

Yeah. Same observations on OSU at this point. They shouldn’t be top 30 with their 11-9 profile. Wins over Rutgers, Iowa and @ NW are good but not top 30 level with that loss count (including a Q4 loss).

I'm not sure it's ****** up (it might be but it's hard to tell). I think it just isn't weighted very much. It's mainly just efficiency.

 

[RUChoppin]

It really feels like NET is valuing the efficiency numbers more than the W/L numbers. Play well consistently across all of your possessions, and the model gives you a lot of credit. Which leads to things like valuing "good" losses over "bad" wins.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I'm not sure it's ****ed up (it might be but it's hard to tell). I think it just isn't weighted very much. It's mainly just efficiency.

I just think it can be really hard to compare metrics in general sometimes.

Let’s say Oklahoma State finishes strong and ends with a 17-15 record. Say Southern Illinois finishes strong too - they end up 27-7 on selection day. It’s tempting to assume Okie State is the easy choice with better wins and “better” losses, but why should we assume it would be a slam dunk that Okie St would consistently win @ places like Drake (16-6), @ Belmont (16-6), @ Bradley (14-8)? It’s not like Oklahoma State played a bunch of decent midmajors on their floors and dominated. They have “better” losses, because they had less opportunities for them and better wins for the opposite reason. And oh yeah - SI beat Oklahoma State at their place (that’s why I chose this example).

 

[kcg88]

It really feels like NET is valuing the efficiency numbers more than the W/L numbers. Play well consistently across all of your possessions, and the model gives you a lot of credit. Which leads to things like valuing "good" losses over "bad" wins.

Sure, which is the stated goal. A one point loss to Purdue is better than a one point win over IUPUI. Nobody wants to use the NET as the sole (or even main) criteria for picking the field. It's a useful sorting tool.

The NET tells you who is better (usually) but it doesn't tell you who has the better resume.

 

[fluoxetine]

It really feels like NET is valuing the efficiency numbers more than the W/L numbers. Play well consistently across all of your possessions, and the model gives you a lot of credit. Which leads to things like valuing "good" losses over "bad" wins.

Yes exactly.

I just think it can be really hard to compare metrics in general sometimes.

Let’s say Oklahoma State finishes strong and ends with a 17-15 record. Say Southern Illinois finishes strong too - they end up 27-7 on selection day. It’s tempting to assume Okie State is the easy choice with better wins and “better” losses, but why should we assume it would be a slam dunk that Okie St would consistently win @ places like Drake (16-6), @ Belmont (16-6), @ Bradley (14-8)? It’s not like Oklahoma State played a bunch of decent midmajors on their floors and dominated. They have “better” losses, because they had less opportunities for them and better wins for the opposite reason. And oh yeah - SI beat Oklahoma State at their place (that’s why I chose this example).

How confident you are in a given model prediction is dependent on the level of connectivity between the two teams being compared. So within conference predictions should be better than between conference predictions. College basketball has pretty connected schedules so you should have a pretty good idea of the relationships even between conferences. There are enough high-major vs mid-major games within the season that we basically know how much better the high majors are than the mid-majors on average and can make pretty good assumptions about what a team like OK St would do against Drake, Belmont, etc.

This problem is far greater in football where teams are only playing 3 OOC games and often one of those against an FCS opponent.

Sure, which is the stated goal. A one point loss to Purdue is better than a one point win over IUPUI. Nobody wants to use the NET as the sole (or even main) criteria for picking the field. It's a useful sorting tool.

The NET tells you who is better (usually) but it doesn't tell you who has the better resume.

Yes.. the NET was not well correlated with actual seeding or selection last year. It's being used much more to measure schedule strength and sort the games into quads and stuff like that, and for that efficiency makes more sense.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

Indiana slides from 20 to 23 with that narrow win at Minnesota.

Lowell dropped to 148.

 

[fluoxetine]

Wow we are #9 in ESPN BPI