I think too much stock is put into getting to draft the first QB or highest rated college QB. If you look at more recent QB draft history, it doesn't generally work out as planned.
- 2013 Young (1) was drafted ahead of Stroud (2). Richardson (4) is a TBD due to injury. Levis at 33 it slated to be a starter.
- 2022 Draft - Brock Purdy in the 7th round seems to be the only good starter
- 2021 Draft - Lawrence (1) is the best of the bunch but still has not led his team to anything significant yet. Wilson (2), Lance (3) were awful, Fields (11) and Mac Jones(15) - mediocre at best.
- 2020 Draft - Burrow has been very good and worth the #1 Overall IMO, Tags and Herbert at 5 & 6 have been very good - but has not manifested in significant team results yet, Love (26) and Hurts (53) as later picks have been on par with the others and have made some noise in the playoffs
- 2019 - Murray (1) and Jones (6) have not done anything significant beyond single playoff appearances
- 2018 - Mayfield (1) has been OK at best, Darnold (3) backup level, Rosen(10) out of the league. Best have been Allen (7) and Jackson (32)
- 2017 - Mitch Trubisky was selected #2 in the same draft at Mahomes at #10. Watson at 12 was good before his personal issues and injuries.
Ya no guarantee's. That 2018 year was hyped as heck, and only one of those guys panned out.
I leave Lamar out of the "panned out" group because I don't remember him being as hyped. Darnold and Rosen though for sure. Allen to a lesser extent coming from a small school and he had some question marks in the form of completion %.
As to my point above about lists changing dramatically as the season goes on, Burrow jumped big in his senior year if I remember right, Tyler Murray seemed to jump big post season, Jones too, and both are questionable as to if they should have. Haskins, RIP, was the heir apparent going into his soph season, had a big year, but still fell in the draft.
