OT: 2025 Above Normal Atlantic Basin Tropical Activity Forecasts from CSU/NOAA; Erin a Cat 5, but should stay well off the east coast
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Holy rapid intensification Batman! Sharing the link to an incredible visible satellite loop (I hope the link works) of Hurricane Erin from around 8-9 am this morning as it was undergoing explosively rapid intensification from a 75 mph hurricane yesterday at 5 pm to a Cat 3 hurricane of 120 mph at 5 am this morning to a Cat 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds (at 915 mbar central pressure) at 11:20 am this morning. One of the fastest intensifications ever seen, especially before September. Erin has since weakened slightly to a strong Cat 4 storm with 150 mph winds (at 934 mbar), due to undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which was expected given how tiny the storm and its eye is (~10 miles across).
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1BCoXa46hS/
Erin was able to strengthen so quickly due to the combination of anomalously high ocean temps in the Atlantic and very favorable conditions (low shear and minimal dry air). All I can say is that folks along the US east coast and in Bermuda look like they'll be incredibly lucky as Erin's track (see below), which has moved west a bit, is still forecast to have Erin pass about midway between the NC OBX and Bermuda (300+ miles from both points), meaning it's very likely that the only effects for the east coast (including Canada) and Bermuda will be very strong swells, heavy surf, dangerous riptides and beach erosion for much of the coming week (starting by Tuesday for the DE/NJ/NY area). A couple of links below...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/.../2025-08-16-major...
Summary: Cat 4 Erin still expected to stay well off the US coast, but the entire east coast (including Canada) will see rough seas, heavy surf and dangerous riptides with more significant direct impacts in NC where Erin will come closest. The NHC track graphic and positions are below as are the usual links.
Details: Cat 4 Erin (130 mph winds) still expected to track between NC and Bermuda, but the track has been adjusted closer to the NC Outer Banks, i.e., about 250 miles off the NC coast at closest approach, when Erin is forecast to be a 110-115 mph Cat 3 storm vs. ~350 miles off the coast in forecasts from a day or two ago. This means that the OBX now might see some tropical storm force winds and will likely see some significant coastal flooding, which has necessitated a mandatory evacuation order for Tues-Thurs. Let's hope we do not see any continued NW-ward adjustments in the track, bringing the storm even closer to the coast.
Erin should be moving NE by the time it makes its closest approach to the NC coast on Wednesday, which should still take the storm well out to sea, 400+ miles off the DE/NJ/NY coasts after that, but even here and up through coastal New England (and Canada) there will be large swells, heavy surf, dangerous riptides from about Tuesday through Friday and there could even be some minor coastal flooding Thurs/Fri in our area.
Looking more closely at Erin, after weakening to a strong Cat 3 hurricane yesterday after its eyewall replacement cycle, Erin is back up to a Cat 4 hurricane this morning (130 mph) and expected to strengthen further to ~145 mph today, as Erin is moving across abnormally warm ocean waters of 30C (86F) in a moist environment with low shear. Erin has also grown significantly in size, with hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds now extending up to 70 miles and 200 miles from the eye, respectively. Erin is currently lashing the Turks and Caicos Islands where TS warnings are up and the SE Bahamas.
Erin continues to be forecast to gradually turn northward later today and Tuesday, as it moves into a weakness within the subtropical ridge to its east, which should take the core of the hurricane NNE then NE between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. After that, a strong approaching trough moving through the eastern US should cause Erin to accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 22.8N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 23.6N 71.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 25.0N 72.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 26.6N 72.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 28.6N 73.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 30.7N 73.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 32.9N 72.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 37.2N 66.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 41.6N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/.../2025-08-18-major...
You don't portray yourself as an overbearing "helicopter" parent. While I would (and did at 13) certainly have given our son strong warnings about risks of swimming with high rip current risks or when lifeguards were off duty, I can't say I knew exactly where he was all the time at age 13, as we gave him freedom to be on his own within reason.
When we were at the Shore, that meant he and his friends or on his own would be allowed to walk around OCNJ on the boardwalk or in town and there would've been nothing to stop him from deciding to go for a swim on a day like this past Friday when riptide risks were considered low, although I hope he would've been smart enough to not go swimming alone on an unguarded beach like this girl apparently did. And at 13 he had complete freedom in town at home to ride bikes, visit friends, and I'm sure do some dumb things, just like I did at that age and younger.
Not true. Most Cat 5 names are retired, but it's not a "rule" per se. Emily in 2005 and Edith in 1971 were Cat 5's whose names were not retired. One of the major factors is if there is catastrophic damage and/or loss of life and I could see Erin not being retired because there will not be any catastrophic damage.
I live here. I know what to expect. The warning is for you Bennies.So they've put out alerts because you're visiting? Oh, because of the hurricane!
Please leave the black socks with sandals at home
Summary: Hurricane Erin is a strong Cat 2 now and still forecast to remain well off the coast, but major flooding impacts, heavy surf, dangerous riptides and erosion for the OBX; minor to moderate flooding and heavy surf, riptides and erosion for our area.
Details: Hurricane Erin has weakened to a Cat 2 storm with 105 mph winds (and may strengthen back to 110-115 mph, still, i.e., to Cat 3), but the storm has doubled in size relative to when it was a Cat 5 on Saturday, meaning the overall energy in the storm is still extremely high. That is why even though the center of Erin will likely pass by ~200 miles to the SE of the Outer Banks Thurs am, as per the graphic below, that area is under a TS warning and will still see tropical storm force winds, which extend out 230 miles from the center (hurricane force winds extend 80 miles from the center). More importantly, though are the coastal flooding impacts which will be significant with up to 4' of surge expected as per the 2nd graphic (and up to 3' for the SE VA coast), which is why that area has been evacuated and on top of that the huge 15+ foot waves will make the flooding worse.
For our area, the impacts won't be nearly as severe, as Erin will be 350+ miles SE of the DE/NJ/NY coasts Thursday afternoon into early Friday, but minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected, which will flood some streets and cause some damage in low lying areas; winds will gust to 30-40 mph at the coast, but shouldn't be a major issue. In addition, the heavy surf (up to 10' waves), dangerous rip currents, and beach erosion, which are already underway, will continue through Friday, so red flag warnings are up at all beaches. Our area could also get an inch or so of rain tomorrow from an approaching frontal system, where the rain will likely be enhanced by Erin's moisture feed. Below is the NWS-Philly discussion of these risks for DE/NJ; the NWS-NYC discussion for NYC/LI is very similar.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...ricane-erin-atlantic-bahamas-east-coast-waves
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
407 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
Rip Currents...
For Wednesday, northeast to east winds 10-20 mph. Building seas
will lead to breaking waves in the surf zone are forecast to
build into the 5-8 foot range. A high surf advisory has been
issue for Wednesday, with conditions worsening through the day
as long period southeasterly swells (15-18 seconds) associated
with Hurricane Erin continue. Due to the dangerous conditions, a
HIGH risk for the development of life threatening rip currents
continues for the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.
For Thursday, northeast to east winds 20-30 mph with gusts to
35-40 mph possible. High surf advisories remain in effect for
breaking waves in the surf zone as high as 12 feet. Dangerous
surf zone conditions will remain through the day with long
period southeasterly swells (15-18 seconds) still associated
with Hurricane Erin. There will be a HIGH risk for the
development of life threatening rip currents continues for the
Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches on Thursday.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Prolonged onshore flow will result in periods of tidal flooding
this week. Tidal flooding working up the tidal portion of the
Delaware Bay this evening should be spotty minor.
Water will slowly pile up as onshore flow continues through at
least Thursday. Swells from Hurricane Erin will also enhance
the threat for tidal flooding and push of water onshore,
especially as it gets closer to Wednesday into Thursday.
Areas of minor tidal flooding look to occur this afternoon and
evening, with more minor coastal flooding possible Wednesday.
A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for Cape May County, NJ and
Sussex and Kent County, DE. More widespread minor tidal
flooding is expected, and the Advisory runs from 4 to 10 PM this
evening.
The potential for a more widespread moderate coastal flood event
as Erin passes Thursday into Friday has increased, so have
issued coastal flood watches for most of the coastal strip at
this time. Uncertainty exists regarding longeavity, with some
guidance indicating several cycles could reach moderate, so have
gone a bit long with the timeing even though the most
confidence period is late Thursday. Significant coastal flooding
is less likely on the tidal Delaware though advisories may be
necessary here. Even less risk exists along the Chesapeake Bay
shoreline.
Details: Hurricane Erin has weakened to a Cat 2 storm with 105 mph winds (and may strengthen back to 110-115 mph, still, i.e., to Cat 3), but the storm has doubled in size relative to when it was a Cat 5 on Saturday, meaning the overall energy in the storm is still extremely high. That is why even though the center of Erin will likely pass by ~200 miles to the SE of the Outer Banks Thurs am, as per the graphic below, that area is under a TS warning and will still see tropical storm force winds, which extend out 230 miles from the center (hurricane force winds extend 80 miles from the center). More importantly, though are the coastal flooding impacts which will be significant with up to 4' of surge expected as per the 2nd graphic (and up to 3' for the SE VA coast), which is why that area has been evacuated and on top of that the huge 15+ foot waves will make the flooding worse.
For our area, the impacts won't be nearly as severe, as Erin will be 350+ miles SE of the DE/NJ/NY coasts Thursday afternoon into early Friday, but minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected, which will flood some streets and cause some damage in low lying areas; winds will gust to 30-40 mph at the coast, but shouldn't be a major issue. In addition, the heavy surf (up to 10' waves), dangerous rip currents, and beach erosion, which are already underway, will continue through Friday, so red flag warnings are up at all beaches. Our area could also get an inch or so of rain tomorrow from an approaching frontal system, where the rain will likely be enhanced by Erin's moisture feed. Below is the NWS-Philly discussion of these risks for DE/NJ; the NWS-NYC discussion for NYC/LI is very similar.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...ricane-erin-atlantic-bahamas-east-coast-waves
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
407 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
Rip Currents...
For Wednesday, northeast to east winds 10-20 mph. Building seas
will lead to breaking waves in the surf zone are forecast to
build into the 5-8 foot range. A high surf advisory has been
issue for Wednesday, with conditions worsening through the day
as long period southeasterly swells (15-18 seconds) associated
with Hurricane Erin continue. Due to the dangerous conditions, a
HIGH risk for the development of life threatening rip currents
continues for the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.
For Thursday, northeast to east winds 20-30 mph with gusts to
35-40 mph possible. High surf advisories remain in effect for
breaking waves in the surf zone as high as 12 feet. Dangerous
surf zone conditions will remain through the day with long
period southeasterly swells (15-18 seconds) still associated
with Hurricane Erin. There will be a HIGH risk for the
development of life threatening rip currents continues for the
Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches on Thursday.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Prolonged onshore flow will result in periods of tidal flooding
this week. Tidal flooding working up the tidal portion of the
Delaware Bay this evening should be spotty minor.
Water will slowly pile up as onshore flow continues through at
least Thursday. Swells from Hurricane Erin will also enhance
the threat for tidal flooding and push of water onshore,
especially as it gets closer to Wednesday into Thursday.
Areas of minor tidal flooding look to occur this afternoon and
evening, with more minor coastal flooding possible Wednesday.
A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for Cape May County, NJ and
Sussex and Kent County, DE. More widespread minor tidal
flooding is expected, and the Advisory runs from 4 to 10 PM this
evening.
The potential for a more widespread moderate coastal flood event
as Erin passes Thursday into Friday has increased, so have
issued coastal flood watches for most of the coastal strip at
this time. Uncertainty exists regarding longeavity, with some
guidance indicating several cycles could reach moderate, so have
gone a bit long with the timeing even though the most
confidence period is late Thursday. Significant coastal flooding
is less likely on the tidal Delaware though advisories may be
necessary here. Even less risk exists along the Chesapeake Bay
shoreline.
Concerns about the two trailing potential TDs - hopefully same trajectory as Erin
We better not be trailing by two TDs until late October
Actually the one behind Erin is now looking like even more of a fish storm (if it forms - not a given) than Erin is. The one behind that is way too far off to speculate on.
Good time to check in on the Frying Pan Tower off of NC. Surprised the waves aren't bigger at this point.
explore.org
Frying Pan camera - live video from Cape Fear | Explore.org
This live ocean cam is situated on a former coast guard observation tower off the coast of North Carolina.
explore.org
Good - wife on a Caribbean cruise Aug 24-31. Hoping for no hurricanes during that time.....
Recent NWS-Philly post below highlighting the coastal risks to our area from Hurricane Erin, which is expected to strengthen back to a ~120 mph Cat 3 storm by tonight and remain a Cat 3 through at least Thursday night. This includes a coastal flood warning for Cape May County and Sussex Cty, DE (Thursday thru Friday) for moderate to locally major coastal flooding leading to inundation 1-2 feet above normally dry ground (generally at/near high tide), as well as coastal flood watches for the rest of the NJ coast, also for the potential of 1-2 feet of inundation (it's a watch because confidence in that level of flooding is lower than for the warning areas).
Also, note that the NWS-NYC has issued similar coastal flood watches for 1-2' of inundation above normally dry ground for the NYC/LI coasts. This is in addition to advisories for the whole region with regard to heavy surf, dangerous rip currents and beach erosion, as well as a wind advisory from the Ocean to Cape May county coasts for gusts up to 50 mph. Stay safe out there and stay out of the water...
https://www.weather.gov/phi
Also, note that the NWS-NYC has issued similar coastal flood watches for 1-2' of inundation above normally dry ground for the NYC/LI coasts. This is in addition to advisories for the whole region with regard to heavy surf, dangerous rip currents and beach erosion, as well as a wind advisory from the Ocean to Cape May county coasts for gusts up to 50 mph. Stay safe out there and stay out of the water...
https://www.weather.gov/phi
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So, the guy who gives me crap about posting potential snowstorm info 5 days out is now trolling that a tropical wave near Africa, which the NHC currently only gives a 40% chance of even forming into a tropical storm in the next 7 days is going to magically evolve into a hurricane and come up the east coast 10 days from now? When no model shows this? The closest thing I saw on the GFS was a weak storm (no "cane") forming near NC and meandering up the coast, which might not even be tropical and might not even reach TS status if it is - and no other model shows this. If you posted this on AmericanWx you'd be laughed off the board. Again.
International Space Station captures striking view of Hurricane Erin
The International Space Station flew 260 miles over the hurricane as it moved northwest through the Caribbean.
bbc.com
It was posted on americanwx..that's where I saw it
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
www.americanwx.com
Seems like you are struggling the past 8 months without joy
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That's Monday evening's run, not last night's, plus it has not been reproduced by the GFS or any other model. Slapping you around, verbally, for making ridiculously misleading troll posts is simply a public service. That was likely your worst weather post ever and that's saying something. Be better.It was posted on americanwx..that's where I saw it
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
Seems like you are struggling the past 8 months without joy
Good time to check in on the Frying Pan Tower off of NC. Surprised the waves aren't bigger at this point.
Frying Pan camera - live video from Cape Fear | Explore.org
This live ocean cam is situated on a former coast guard observation tower off the coast of North Carolina.
its was a model run that was shown not only on the pa board but the ny board as well. No one made you or your ilk the arbiter of information especially based on your past history from 5 years
You're just not very good at arguing are you? You said it was a GFS run from last night, i.e., Tuesday night, when it was a run from Monday night, so you couldn't even get that right. More importantly, you're being extremely hypocritical in making a ridiculous, unsupported post about a hurricane in our area 10 days from now, which nobody in the world takes seriously, as that's click-bait, when you regularly criticize me for making posts about possible snowstorms even 5 days out - if I had posted what you did you and your whole cabal would be all over it. Do you actually not see the hypocrisy or are you just trolling?
I'm not the "arbiter" of anything. I don't give a crap, usually, what you or others post in weather threads or who starts weather threads (although I and most others do like when thread titles are updated as the situation changes), etc., but I will call you out on your stupidity and hypocrisy every time, because you've earned it.
And it’s actually a beautiful night with all that going on. Not much beach left of what is normally a 50 yard stretch
Another data point proving that name-calling is the last refuge of those who lost the argument and won't admit it.
New board, same old ****.RU#'s ==><== bac
Like I've said before, I appreciate a no-agenda weather thread, but that I also get some chuckles from the banter and trash-talking.
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So moving R opener to Thurs. 8/28 might be a homerun. Appreciate the heads-up!
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It started picking up here 9-10. Going pretty good now. Supposed to get stronger in a few hours then start to die down a bit by evening
He uses a line like "your cabal" and then complains about name-calling. And why? Why is there a pissing match at all regarding weather threads? It is insane. Didn't he once leave this board when the other one split off and announce it with a fanfare, stating that he had been invited to move over to the new board? Don't get me wrong, you both have issues.. I just find him much more bizarre.
Moving the opener to 9/28 won't go over well. And let's hope last night's Euro is wrong, as it shows some showers on gameday afternoon and evening. On 8/28.