The Cubs won't do that because they'd lose out on depth and exceed the lux tax. Unless the Cubs can shed Heyward's contract (ain't happening) they're not making a major splash. Same reason the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers aren't "in" on him
Teams used to pay for past performance. Now they are done doing that because of how often these long term deals have been bad financial decisions once they play out. That's what is going to have to change.
I'd do something (once a player's "clock" starts) like 1 year at $550K then 3 arb years that pay a player their "worth" respective to what they did the previous season, then free agency. Players would then be free agents at 27-28 much more often as opposed to 30-31 like they are now
Just catching up on this thread - it's like the 4th of July in here!
This is a really interesting point to me, one that underscores the particular strangeness of the market for Machado and Harper.
For the first time in recent MLB history, we have two superstar free agents on the open market, neither of whom has first-round draft pick compensation tied to them, and both of whom are free agents at 26 or younger. If EVER there were a time that the monster 8- or 10-year deal would be justified, it's on these guys. Both still have projectable improvement in their profiles. One of them is an elite defensive player when he's at the correct position.
Harper's a bit of a strange player, as he has alternated spectacular offensive seasons with lackluster ones. Last year, his defensive performance rated quite poorly, but it seems like a blip for a 25-year-old who was forced to play out of position in CF a lot for the first time. And even in those "terrible" years, he's still chasing a .400 OBP while hitting a bunch of homers.
Machado, for his part, had a "bad" 2017 and put up 3.5 WAR. I've posted about this concept before, but if you place even a conservative price of $6M per WAR on the free agent market, that means Machado's bad year was worth $21M in free agency dollars. His good years are worth double that, or more.
This whole situation, from the Sox's perspective reminds me of the megadeal Washington handed Jayson Werth. The Phillies had been the gold standard in the NL East, and the Nats saw an opportunity to strike a big deal that would change the narrative around the team because they had Harper, Rendon, Strasburg, et al on the way. They did so knowing that the first year or two of Werth's deal wouldn't be winning seasons for the team, but they were setting up the mid years of the deal to be good ones for the franchise. And guess what? Werth was terrible Year 1, hurt Year 2...and excellent Years 3 and 4 on some very good teams. Washington never won a title because of other mistakes and the Curse of Benching Strasburg, but that deal altered how other players around the league regarded the team, how fans valued attendance and watching games, the whole shebang.
Now, the difference with these two players is that they're both much better and much younger than Werth was. As 24 has laid out here quite well, the Sox have a window opening soon where they will have a ton of good, cheap talent. They play in a division that is ripe for the taking over the next 5-7 years - the Indians' window is starting to close, the Twins are confusing, the Royals are well behind Chicago in their rebuild, and Detroit's a mess. If you can get Machado (or Harper, but I like Machado a little bit better) at ANY kind of a discount, even if Year 1 of the contract is still not a "successful" season, you do it!
It's the same reason San Diego is well advised to go after Harper - they've got the best farm in baseball, and the Dodgers' stranglehold on the division seems a little more tenuous than it has for the last few seasons while Arizona and San Francisco are staring big rebuilds down. You have an offseason where the traditional big spenders - BOS, NYY, CHC, LAD - have luxury tax concerns. Go get a player where you can plan for the middle years of the contract lining up with both the prime years of the player's career, the time your own young players are going to hit the majors, and the time your competitors may be in worse shape than they are now.
Most of the time, I scoff at the free agent overpays as much as anyone else, but Machado and Harper are unique free agency cases that provide unusual value to atypical teams on the market. The Sox and the Pads have been undertaking very patient rebuilds, and it's telling that they both realize the opportunity in front of them. For the sake of seeing some underdogs do well, I hope they don't blow the opportunity over a relatively marginal $20-30M amortized over 8-10 years. This is a chance to add tremendous value, perhaps 5-7 wins per season over the next half-decade or more, without the concern over paying huge dollars for age-37/38/39+ seasons. Go for it!!!
