OT: Baseball Free Agents

[rwhitney014]

Bullpen pitchers are notoriously variable in their performance from year to year (Just ask the Cardinals, who always seem to buy high on guys like Brett Cecil, Greg Holland and Luke Gregorson, and get burned). So the Brews, who were 5 games above their Pythagorean record in 2018, seem unlikely to repeat that formula. But they have good players and will be in the thick of it.

Yes, relievers are volatile, but Josh Hader is also better than any of those guys were, particularly at the points of their careers they were at when they were in STL.

The biggest threat to Milwaukee's bullpen is the fact that Hader, Burnes and Woodruff should really all be starting. Still leaves them with Jeffress, Knebel, Barnes, and others. Their staff is very flexible and quite deep, even if they don't have the established Cy Young-candidate ace at the top.

With the depth they have in their both their MLB roster and their minors, I'd expect Milwaukee to go all in on Jacob DeGrom if the Mets were to put him on the block. Burnes or Woodruff and Hiura would be a good way to start that conversation.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Yes, relievers are volatile, but Josh Hader is also better than any of those guys were, particularly at the points of their careers they were at when they were in STL.

The biggest threat to Milwaukee's bullpen is the fact that Hader, Burnes and Woodruff should really all be starting. Still leaves them with Jeffress, Knebel, Barnes, and others. Their staff is very flexible and quite deep, even if they don't have the established Cy Young-candidate ace at the top.

With the depth they have in their both their MLB roster and their minors, I'd expect Milwaukee to go all in on Jacob DeGrom if the Mets were to put him on the block. Burnes or Woodruff and Hiura would be a good way to start that conversation.

Congrats on the 200th post on this thread. People say baseball if dying lol.

I agree that they have an excellent BP. I also stand by my contention that their SP right now is not Championship level. If they get DeGroom or an Ace that changes it. I am a dinosaur in baseball team construction. I always think you need an Ace, (generally to right the ship after a losing streak), a couple of better than average starters, and a couple of solid innings eaters in the rotation.

The Brewers turned that notion upside down but I want to see it more than once to be scared of it. I personally don’t like the new style of game to pray to get 5 innings out of your SP then bringing in 4-5 100 mph relievers. Even worse was counsell’s starting his reliever for a batter or two and then making it a bullpen game. I love baseball but watching a parade of 6-7 pitchers a game for each team isn’t sustainable over a regular season and it hasn’t been proven with a Championship either. All BP arms need to be clicking for that strategy to work. Brewers almost did it against LA, but Jefferies burnt out . Chacin that top starter lasted 2 innings in game 7 of the NLCS.

The Brewers got on a roll to end the season. I think they won there last 11 games and then beat the Cubs in the tie breaker. An incredible story, but they better improve their SP this year or they’ll be golfing October 2nd. I very surprised they didn’t trade for or sign a topend starter or two.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Yes, relievers are volatile, but Josh Hader is also better than any of those guys were, particularly at the points of their careers they were at when they were in STL.

The biggest threat to Milwaukee's bullpen is the fact that Hader, Burnes and Woodruff should really all be starting. Still leaves them with Jeffress, Knebel, Barnes, and others. Their staff is very flexible and quite deep, even if they don't have the established Cy Young-candidate ace at the top.

With the depth they have in their both their MLB roster and their minors, I'd expect Milwaukee to go all in on Jacob DeGrom if the Mets were to put him on the block. Burnes or Woodruff and Hiura would be a good way to start that conversation.

Not sure Hader is starting material. He’s as unhittable as anyone, but is a fastball/slider guy. He would almost certainly need a third pitch to last three turns through a lineup. It’s pretty rare to find two pitch starters, and it’s usually fastball/changeup guys (Maddux was the master, Buehrle kinda did this, but used a cutter too). Plus, Hader started less than half his games in the minors. I’d use him in high leverage spots out of the pen.

 

[NUCat320]

Not sure Hader is starting material. He’s as unhittable as anyone, but is a fastball/slider guy. He would almost certainly need a third pitch to last three turns through a lineup. It’s pretty rare to find two pitch starters, and it’s usually fastball/changeup guys (Maddux was the master, Buehrle kinda did this, but used a cutter too). Plus, Hader started less than half his games in the minors. I’d use him in high leverage spots out of the pen.

There’s the rub , tho. Three times through the lineup is no longer an expectation for many starters by many managers, Counsell chief among them.

Personally, I think Hader is best deployed for ~90-100 wipeout innings in the 7th-9th, but 18 batters every four days isn’t so bad either (but, less inherently valuable than wipeout late-inning appearances.)

At some point this season, I expect the Rays to, with the exception of Snell’s starts, go full-out 8-man rotation. One pitcher gets ~60 pitches, followed directly by his tandem starter. (It’s arguable whether Snell is more valuable as a traditional starter or as part of a tandem.)

A few teams tried it in the lower levels (never higher than A-ball) when I worked in baseball a 15+ years ago. Pitchers hated it — but we were more medieval about the W stat then.

 

[Hungry Jack]

There’s the rub , tho. Three times through the lineup is no longer an expectation for many starters by many managers, Counsell chief among them.

Personally, I think Hader is best deployed for ~90-100 wipeout innings in the 7th-9th, but 18 batters every four days isn’t so bad either (but, less inherently valuable than wipeout late-inning appearances.)

At some point this season, I expect the Rays to, either the exception of Snell’s starts, go full-out 8-man rotation. One pitcher gets ~60 pitches, followed directly by his tandem starter. (It’s arguable whether Snell is more valuable as a traditional starter or as part of a tandem.)

A few teams tried it in the lower levels (never higher than A-ball) when I worked in baseball a 15+ years ago. Pitchers hated it — but we were more medieval about the W stat then.

Some interesting comments on Hader in this Fangraphs article. His secondary pitches rate higher than I suspected, though his FB is clearly elite.

The issue with Hader is that he has only once thrown more than 100 innings in a season (103 in the minors in 2014). And guys with his super high K rate (and a higher walk rate) throw a lot of pitches. To your point, he'd probably add much more win probability as a reliever used in high leverage situations (the article suggests that Hader does not care about the "closer" role, he just wants to pitch).

 

[torque-cat]

The two best free agents we’ve seen in a generation should be signed with two weeks until ST...

I'm sure they've had offers. Up to the players if they want to sign or not.

 

[Fitz51]

I am loving this discussion. Let's keep it up!

 

[hoosboot]

They won the division with that bullpen. They didn't ask much of their starters. I kind of hope the Reds try that formula this year.

I feel like Reds starters can finally live up to expectations if the team just asks them to not do much.

 

[rwhitney014]

Not sure Hader is starting material. He’s as unhittable as anyone, but is a fastball/slider guy. He would almost certainly need a third pitch to last three turns through a lineup. It’s pretty rare to find two pitch starters, and it’s usually fastball/changeup guys (Maddux was the master, Buehrle kinda did this, but used a cutter too). Plus, Hader started less than half his games in the minors. I’d use him in high leverage spots out of the pen.

Yes, but most of those came during his stints in the Baltimore and Houston organizations. In the Brewers', all 44 minor league appearances (outside of a short stint in the Arizona Fall League, which I don't count) were starts. Though you're right that a third pitch is usually necessary to start, his two are so ridiculous that I think he can hack it. He also may have a third that he just doesn't bother using in his current role - I don't know either way.

I'm willing to capitulate and say that any multi-inning role is sufficient, but if I'm the Brewers I'd like to see him throwing an average of 7 IP a week, a little less than a traditional workhorse starter would over the course of a season. Marlins folk hero Craig Counsell can moderate his innings when the team goes through a tough stretch now and then, as he shouldn't be pitching in games that they're losing. Plus they already pretty much didn't let him go back-to-back last year anyway. Regardless, the beauty of the current role is that the manager can pick and choose when to deploy him, so you end up getting the benefit of 7 high leverage IP rather than a start when the calendar says it's your turn to go.

Speaking of Houston, they used this exact strategy to a tee during their World Series run in 2017, when Brad Peacock and especially Chris Devenski took on very similar roles even though Houston had more established SP than Milwaukee does now. Peacock ended up swinging into the rotation later on, but Devenski stuck to his guns throughout the season. He fell off a bit in 2018, though, so there is certainly some risk there. Peacock had 130 IP in 2017 and more or less had the same results in 2019 even though he didn't end up starting many games. That number feels about right for Hader, at least right now.

And it will surprise no one to hear that I LOVED the machinations in that Dodgers series, but for reasons specific to that matchup. The Dodgers built a roster of platoons and matchups, where they would stitch their lineup together based on the type of SP. So when Counsell screwed with the conventions, he gave Dave Roberts a Sophie's choice: either stick with the opposites of the matchups he wanted for multiple ABs, or burn your whole bench in the first inning and subject yourself to the wrong end up of the matchups later in the game. For the mind games alone, it was brilliant. Even though it didn't end up working, it was awesome to see. Can't really manage that way over 162 games, but in an all-out playoff series when your SP aren't your strength anyway? Why not?

 

[NUCat320]

@rwhitney014 I loved the Brewers’ approach that series as well, except for the one game where Woodruff faced the leadoff hitter only. That was absurd.

 

[rwhitney014]

There’s the rub , tho. Three times through the lineup is no longer an expectation for many starters by many managers, Counsell chief among them.

Personally, I think Hader is best deployed for ~90-100 wipeout innings in the 7th-9th, but 18 batters every four days isn’t so bad either (but, less inherently valuable than wipeout late-inning appearances.)

At some point this season, I expect the Rays to, with the exception of Snell’s starts, go full-out 8-man rotation. One pitcher gets ~60 pitches, followed directly by his tandem starter. (It’s arguable whether Snell is more valuable as a traditional starter or as part of a tandem.)

A few teams tried it in the lower levels (never higher than A-ball) when I worked in baseball a 15+ years ago. Pitchers hated it — but we were more medieval about the W stat then.

If you're gonna go full "opener," it helps to have a Cy Young winner on that 5th day. I get the sense they'll give Snell and Glasnow the traditional treatment; beyond that is anyone's guess. But the Rays were overmatched in the AL East last year and won 90 games. There's something there, if you have the right personnel.

As attitudes shift, to the bolded point, do you think players will be more on board with this strategy? Like, though pitcher wins don't matter outside of the arbitration game, Ryan Yarbrough still went 16-6 for the Rays last year as the "opener" or mid-innings dude after Romo. Worked out well for him.

 

[rwhitney014]

@rwhitney014 I loved the Brewers’ approach that series as well, except for the one game where Woodruff faced the leadoff hitter only. That was absurd.

I wouldn't have burned Woodruff (unless he was already used up for that night anyway - can't remember), but hearing the confusion on the broadcast alone was well worth it.

 

[NUCat320]

I wouldn't have burned Woodruff (unless he was already used up for that night anyway - can't remember), but hearing the confusion on the broadcast alone was well worth it.

As I recall, it was an afternoon start — so I didn’t get that pleasure.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

@rwhitney014 I loved the Brewers’ approach that series as well, except for the one game where Woodruff faced the leadoff hitter only. That was absurd.

Pretty sure that was Wade Miley. Unless it happened twice.

 

[Hungry Jack]

RIP Frank Robinson

 

[Aging Booster]

Hammer their over if you gamble. It's at 84 wins last I looked. Also, I can't believe they're not in on Keuchel or didn't go HARD at Arrieta last year.

I think you missed my point from earlier in this thread. In all but very rare occasions, signing free agents is for suckers, and trading young talent for old talent is even worse. As a Brewer fan, I'll take the next three years of Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta over the next three years of Keuchel or some of the guys rumored to be available in trade. The young talent coming up in baseball today is very good and these guys are under club control for 6 years. Fans can get to know the young guys and teams can win with them - now, not later. Just look at the Cubs, Royals, Astros, and Yankees - very few free agents on those rosters, yet all have been winners with young players. An occasional free agent, especially at the right price, can help push a club over the hump. But, it has to be the right guy, at the right time, at the right price - especially when one is dealing with a small market team. The Brewers have no margin for error in signing free agents. ( FYI, it is not just broadcasting revenue, seats filled, and concession prices that are different; tickets for which the Cubs charge $90 to $100 cost around $20 - $30 in Milwaukee. That difference adds up over a season.) Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta are each capable of being aces in a year or two and, with a healthy Jimmy Nelson, will form the backbone of one of the best staffs in baseball, despite its youth. Just because you have only heard of these guys in passing does not mean they cannot pitch. Also, I think WAR is a distorting, subjective, and unreliable stat and I still value batting averages and W-L records. Arguments based on the new statistics go in one ear and out the other. And, statistical projections of future performances - get serious! I have been watching and playing baseball for 60 years and there is nothing in Aguilar that looks like "flash-in-the pan" to me. (By the way, in 2017, Nelson was 26 years old, and pitching from the #1 slot posted a 12-6 record with a 3.49 ERA while striking out 199 in 175 innings. He allowed only 1.25 baserunners per inning. He missed more than a month because of his injury, suffered while running the bases.)

 

[Fitz51]

Also, I think WAR is a distorting, subjective, and unreliable stat and I still value batting averages and W-L records. Arguments based on the new statistics go in one ear and out the other.

Ah, yes, the old "you kids and your newfangled contraptions" position. Batting average still has some relevance, but judging pitchers on W/L records is seriously, seriously outdated. I would argue that no front office of any MLB club evaluates pitching on it.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Also, I think WAR is a distorting, subjective, and unreliable stat and I still value batting averages and W-L records. Arguments based on the new statistics go in one ear and out the other. And, statistical projections of future performances - get serious! I have been watching and playing baseball for 60 years and there is nothing in Aguilar that looks like "flash-in-the pan" to me

Arrgghhh.

Batting average is helpful, but On Base Percentage is much better. As Moneyball endeavored to explain, the ability to not make outs that is much more important (and was undervalued during Billy Beane's early run as GM of the As). Given that the league On Base Percentage typically is around .330, this means that on average, outs are made 2/3 of the time in every PA.

Aguilar only hit .274 last year. Do you think he's an average hitter? His OBP was .352, which is pretty decent. Of course, slugging .539 is the real draw. He outslugged his batting average by .265 (this figure is called ISO, for isolated slugging), which is very good.

Randal Grichuk, CF for the Blue Jays, is an out machine (career .298 OBP). But he can slug, (.498 career SLG). And because he's a pretty good defensive CF, he is a reasonably valuable player (2.2 WAR in 2018). Guys who can provide some offensive value at a premium defensive position (CF, SS, C) are pretty valuable, in general.

Fangraphs WAR factors in hitting, defense and baserunning. Given that there are zillions of data points on hitting, the metrics are pretty reliable. Defense is harder to evaluate and the systems show more variability. The value of a stolen base (vs. making an out) is quite clear (most attempts to steal destroy runs if you are not successful at least 75% of the time).

W-L is fine for evaluating a team, but for a pitcher? Chris Sale had a .596 winning percentage for the White Sox. He has a .707 winning percentage with the Red Sox. Is he that much better in red?

Projections are based on reams of historical data, taking into account previous performance and age. We don't have a lot of data on Aguilar (940 career PAs where 2000 PAs is considered a benchmark for forecasting MLB performance), but his career OPS in the majors (.840) is higher than his career OPS in the minors. Think about that. Also, reams of historical data show that the vast majority of hitters peak around age 27-29. Aguilar turns 29 in June. He looks like a good hitter, but he's a good candidate to regress from the .890 OPS he put up in 2017.

 

[corbi2961]

Player evaluations, in any sport, that rely solely on statistiical analysis are as flawed as player evaluations that are absent of any statistical analysis.

 

[Fitz51]

Player evaluations, in any sport, that rely solely on statistiical analysis are as flawed as player evaluations that are absent of any statistical analysis.

Which is why no team relies solely on statistical analysis.

 

[corbi2961]

Which is why no team relies solely on statistical analysis.

True but fans are another story.

 

[NUCat320]

Fans rely on hustle!

 

[Fitz51]

Fans rely on hustle!

The eye test! I can see that he's lazy!

 

[rwhitney014]

I think you missed my point from earlier in this thread. In all but very rare occasions, signing free agents is for suckers, and trading young talent for old talent is even worse. As a Brewer fan, I'll take the next three years of Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta over the next three years of Keuchel or some of the guys rumored to be available in trade. The young talent coming up in baseball today is very good and these guys are under club control for 6 years. Fans can get to know the young guys and teams can win with them - now, not later. Just look at the Cubs, Royals, Astros, and Yankees - very few free agents on those rosters, yet all have been winners with young players. An occasional free agent, especially at the right price, can help push a club over the hump. But, it has to be the right guy, at the right time, at the right price - especially when one is dealing with a small market team. The Brewers have no margin for error in signing free agents. ( FYI, it is not just broadcasting revenue, seats filled, and concession prices that are different; tickets for which the Cubs charge $90 to $100 cost around $20 - $30 in Milwaukee. That difference adds up over a season.) Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta are each capable of being aces in a year or two and, with a healthy Jimmy Nelson, will form the backbone of one of the best staffs in baseball, despite its youth. Just because you have only heard of these guys in passing does not mean they cannot pitch. Also, I think WAR is a distorting, subjective, and unreliable stat and I still value batting averages and W-L records. Arguments based on the new statistics go in one ear and out the other. And, statistical projections of future performances - get serious! I have been watching and playing baseball for 60 years and there is nothing in Aguilar that looks like "flash-in-the pan" to me. (By the way, in 2017, Nelson was 26 years old, and pitching from the #1 slot posted a 12-6 record with a 3.49 ERA while striking out 199 in 175 innings. He allowed only 1.25 baserunners per inning. He missed more than a month because of his injury, suffered while running the bases.)

WAR isn't predictive but can help show a trendline, and it includes data from all phases of the game, even though defensive stats still leave a lot to be desired.

Let me ask you, though, which start would you rather have:

Pitcher A: 5 IP, 5 ER, team wins 6-5 after scoring 6 in the first.
Pitcher B: 8 IP, 1 ER, team loses 1-0.

Obviously, A gets a win and B gets a loss. And though as a team we'd all rather have outcome A, in evaluating a player we'd all rather have line B. Jacob DeGrom had an absurdly good 2018, but he went 10-9 because the Mets provided him historically low run support. He was significantly better than the aforementioned Ryan Yarbrough (16-6) or Jhoulys Chacin (15-8). Which is not to say those guys were bad or unproductive! They weren't. But DeGrom was better, much better, individual W-L aside.

Ultimately, of course we're all in pursuit of team wins here, however we can get them. I like to think of it akin to dietary fat, which is not the same thing as body fat. They're both called fat/wins but each version reflects something different.

 

[Hungry Jack]

The Phillies just scored C JT Realmuto from the Marlins. The Marlins look like they got a nice package of prospects in return.

So now the Phils have added Realmuto, Jean Segura, Nate Robertson and Andrew McCutcheon this offseason to a team that won 80 games last year. Realmuto has been worth 12.3 WAR the past 3 years. Segura has been worth 12 WAR. Cutch has been 6.3 WAR the past two.

So averaging those 3 guys suggests the Phils have added 11 WARish players, replacing position guys who provided about 3 WAR. If they can add Harper, I think they certainly can compete for the NL East crown.

 

[rwhitney014]

The Phillies just scored C JT Realmuto from the Marlins. The Marlins look like they got a nice package of prospects in return.

So now the Phils have added Realmuto, Jean Segura, Nate Robertson and Andrew McCutcheon this offseason to a team that won 80 games last year. Realmuto has been worth 12.3 WAR the past 3 years. Segura has been worth 12 WAR. Cutch has been 6.3 WAR the past two.

So averaging those 3 guys suggests the Phils have added 11 WARish players, replacing position guys who provided about 3 WAR. If they can add Harper, I think they certainly can compete for the NL East crown.

It's a risky return for the Marlins. For one, we don't know who that IFA slot money they got will turn into quite yet. I'd feel a lot better as it sits today if we had been able to grab one more of Philly's bats - they have a kid named Haseley in the minors who's reminiscent of our old friend Yelich. I wanted him.

Alfaro has some warts but an intriguing skill set. The third piece, Stewart, is a late bloomer with some intrigue. But this trade comes down to Sixto Sanchez, who has some injury concerns but bears some similarity to Pedro Martinez. Obviously, if he approaches anything near that, it's a win for us. But we're years away from competing. It's pretty demoralizing.

That said, J.T. Realmuto is very good and likely to improve offensively in Citizens Bank Park. Phillies should really go all in at this point to sign Harper. I'd be surprised at this point if they don't. He's such a massive improvement over Nick Williams and really could cement them as the favorites in what's suddenly a meat grinder. As is, PECOTA projects them for 86 wins, which isn't gonna cut it. Harper (or Manny, I suppose, to replace Maikel Franco) probably pushes them into the 90s.

San Diego, which was supposedly in on J.T., may have blown their chance to land Harper here. Phillies have much more incentive to come up on price for him because it helps justify what they just gave up to Miami.

 

[corbi2961]

The eye test! I can see that he's lazy!

You finally have come around! You can tell a lot by the eye test, of course you have to have an eye in the first place. Some have difficulty distinguishing between Secretariat and a jack ***.

I found this NU related article pretty enlightening on the subject matter. I have been following how Cushing and the other Fitz disciples on the EIU staff have put together their first class (they did quite well) and came across this article that actually talks about the importance of the eye test and what things you can learn about a player from actually watching him play/practice. The excerpt below speaks pretty loudly about how important "attitude and finish" are to these Fitz disciples.

"A highlight video can, though, reveal a bit more than expected.

“There are things that we key in on film,” offensive coordinator John Kuceyeski said. “Offensively speaking, of the things that show up on film, one to me is finish. Attitude. On the O-Line, are they continuing to finish to the whistle and chasing plays? You can see that on a Hudl tape.”

The rest of the article also touches on these intangibles. A good read that I think gives insights into what NU is looking for in recruiting. Based on the results, they must be doing something right.

https://jg-tc.com/sports/how-easter...cle_b9a4f4af-73b6-5e4c-8ceb-a528eab2d678.html

 

[rwhitney014]

You finally have come around! You can tell a lot by the eye test, of course you have to have an eye in the first place. Some have difficulty distinguishing between Secretariat and a jack ***.

I found this NU related article pretty enlightening on the subject matter. I have been following how Cushing and the other Fitz disciples on the EIU staff have put together their first class (they did quite well) and came across this article that actually talks about the importance of the eye test and what things you can learn about a player from actually watching him play/practice. The excerpt below speaks pretty loudly about how important "attitude and finish" are to these Fitz disciples.

"A highlight video can, though, reveal a bit more than expected.

“There are things that we key in on film,” offensive coordinator John Kuceyeski said. “Offensively speaking, of the things that show up on film, one to me is finish. Attitude. On the O-Line, are they continuing to finish to the whistle and chasing plays? You can see that on a Hudl tape.”

The rest of the article also touches on these intangibles. A good read that I think gives insights into what NU is looking for in recruiting. Based on the results, they must be doing something right.

https://jg-tc.com/sports/how-easter...cle_b9a4f4af-73b6-5e4c-8ceb-a528eab2d678.html

Scouts will and should always have a place in baseball. But there's a big difference between a professional sport having technology available to produce statistical evaluation to be used in conjunction with scouting and a high school sport played at thousands of locations around the country without such technology. Use both.

 

[corbi2961]

Scouts will and should always have a place in baseball. But there's a big difference between a professional sport having technology available to produce statistical evaluation to be used in conjunction with scouting and a high school sport played at thousands of locations around the country without such technology. Use both.

I agree wholeheartedly that you need both. However, in this Moneyball era with lots of data at everyone's disposal, I think the eyeball test and the intangible qualities get lost in the discussion but I believe they remain the most important part of the player evaluation equation.

 

[NUCat320]

@corbi296 go talk football on some other board!

 

[corbi2961]

@corbi296 go talk football on some other board!

NUCat320, go play with yourself.

 

[Fitz51]

I agree wholeheartedly that you need both. However, in this Moneyball era with lots of data at everyone's disposal, I think the eyeball test and the intangible qualities get lost in the discussion but I believe they remain the most important part of the player evaluation equation.

Yes, for player evaluation by scouts and front offices with tons and tons of time and tape. For us fans who have far more limited exposure to the player pool in its entirety, stats and predictive stats are a far better tool for educated discussion.

 

[NUCat320]

It would amusing for the Phillies to make such an all-in trade, and then not close the deal on Harper. I think they’ll get him.

PECOTA seems to have forgotten that the Mets are still the Mets. Diaz’s arm will fall off by the 1st of June.

I get to watch Acuna swing a bat every day, which is one of life’s great joys. I think he and Freddie will both hit 35 dongers and the Braves will take it.

 

[rwhitney014]

It would amusing for the Phillies to make such an all-in trade, and then not close the deal on Harper. I think they’ll get him.

PECOTA seems to have forgotten that the Mets are still the Mets. Diaz’s arm will fall off by the 1st of June.

I get to watch Acuna swing a bat every day, which is one of life’s great joys. I think he and Freddie will both hit 35 dongers and the Braves will take it.

Y'know, everyone's all over the Braves and Phillies, but the Nats still are brimming with talent. A friend of mine is a big Nats fan and has been counting the days till Harper leaves, as she always felt like he was a net negative there. I don't know that I agree, but the fact remains: Rendon, Soto, Robles, Turner and Eaton are all excellent, and Zimmerman has been productive the last two years he's been on the field. Brian Dozier is a good bounceback candidate, and Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin is as good a top trio as there is in baseball. Not sure Dave Martinez was the right fit last year as a rookie manager on a team that was built to win immediately, but maybe he's got a better handle on things this year. To borrow parlance of this board, don't sleep on the Nats.

Agreed that the Mets are still the Mets. DeGrom and Syndergaard are excellent, but Cano doesn't excite me and Diaz, while great, doesn't really move the needle on a team that can't decide if it's in the hands of Conforto and Nimmo or (still injured) Cespedes and Jay Bruce. Van Wagenen reminds me of AJ Preller when he first got to San Diego and went wild dismantling a strong farm system to acquire Matt Kemp, Craig Kimbrel and Wil Myers. Think they'd rather have Trea Turner back instead at this point.

 

[Fitz51]

PECOTA seems to have forgotten that the Mets are still the Mets. Diaz’s arm will fall off by the 1st of June.

I seriously need to remember that when I'm tempted to go to $39 on him in my draft.

 

[corbi2961]

Yes, for player evaluation by scouts and front offices with tons and tons of time and tape. For us fans who have far more limited exposure to the player pool in its entirety, stats and predictive stats are a far better tool for educated discussion.

Perhaps, but as a fan if you acknowledge that your opinion is informed solely through that prism, then you have little basis to agree or criticize with the decisions made by the pros because you are basing your opinion on limited factors. Sort of like judging recruits or football players solely by their star rankings and statistics. Doesn’t FItz often say that stats are for losers? When he says that I think he means that judging a player or a team solely through an analysis of stats is a losers game. I agree with him.

 

[NUCat320]

It really sucks that these guys aren’t signed.
The MLB players union has never advocated for drafted and amateur players to get their market value - in fact, the union actively works works against them.

I don’t think the GMs are acting collusively here - they’ve just learned.

But it sucks that two of the top 20ish don’t have teams. Bryce Harper is probably the most-known non-Yankee in the sport, and he can’t find a team.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

It really sucks that these guys aren’t signed.
The MLB players union has never advocated for drafted and amateur players to get their market value - in fact, the union actively works works against them.

I don’t think the GMs are acting collusively here - they’ve just learned.

But it sucks that two of the top 20ish don’t have teams. Bryce Harper is probably the most-known non-Yankee in the sport, and he can’t find a team.

Bryce can find 31 teams, what he can’t find is one to give him a guaranteed 10 year deal at 350-400M

 

[rwhitney014]

Bryce can find 31 teams, what he can’t find is one to give him a guaranteed 10 year deal at 350-400M

Just curious, who's the 31st team?

 

[Fitz51]

Just curious, who's the 31st team?

The Nippon-Ham Fighters.