OT: Baseball Free Agents

[chicagocatfan24]

You have inside info? What about Robin?

Here's me breaking the James Shields trade 3 years ago:

Tim Anderson call up:

Yankees signing Troy Tulowitzki

Carson Fulmer call up

These are the ones I can't remember off the top of my head. Also broke the Yonder Alonso trade from a few weeks back but was forced to delete the tweets by the organization because it wasn't complete yet and they didn't want other teams to hop in last minute.

Oh wait here's Mat Latos' release

Jimmy Rollins' release

I've been seen on MLB net, every Chicago radio station, a few ancillary radio stations (KNBR a few times in SF), have interviewed everyone in the White Sox front office and scouting department sans Reinsdorf himself, am interviewing Michael Kopech tomorrow afternoon and speak with scouts from about 12 different organizations every day.

So yeah, I do have *some* inside info on this

 

[Fitz51]

Here's me breaking the James Shields trade 3 years ago:

Tim Anderson call up:

Yankees signing Troy Tulowitzki

Carson Fulmer call up

These are the ones I can't remember off the top of my head. Also broke the Yonder Alonso trade from a few weeks back but was forced to delete the tweets by the organization because it wasn't complete yet and they didn't want other teams to hop in last minute.

Oh wait here's Mat Latos' release

Jimmy Rollins' release

I've been seen on MLB net, have interviewed everyone in the White Sox front office and scouting department sans Reinsdorf himself, am interviewing Michael Kopech tomorrow afternoon and speak with scouts from about 12 different organizations every day.

So yeah, I do have *some* inside info on this

None of those posts identify leadership. None!

 

[corbi2961]

Did you read any of @chicagocatfan24 ’s posts? He’s literally a professional White Sox/baseball blogger.

So that makes what he says fact? Have you read some of the blogs out there? perhaps what you are trying to say is that because he is a blogger you value his opinion more highly. That’s your prerogative.

 

[Gocatsgo2003]

So that makes what he says fact? Have you read some of the blogs out there? perhaps what you are trying to say is that because he is a blogger you value his opinion more highly. That’s your prerogative.

Ha. You just got smoked in this thread and don’t even know it yet.

 

[corbi2961]

Here's me breaking the James Shields trade 3 years ago:

Tim Anderson call up:

Yankees signing Troy Tulowitzki

Carson Fulmer call up

These are the ones I can't remember off the top of my head. Also broke the Yonder Alonso trade from a few weeks back but was forced to delete the tweets by the organization because it wasn't complete yet and they didn't want other teams to hop in last minute.

Oh wait here's Mat Latos' release

Jimmy Rollins' release

I've been seen on MLB net, have interviewed everyone in the White Sox front office and scouting department sans Reinsdorf himself, am interviewing Michael Kopech tomorrow afternoon and speak with scouts from about 12 different organizations every day.

So yeah, I do have *some* inside info on this

I am happy for you. Now that you have shared your bonafides, I acknowledge you certainly have more insight into the baseball market than an average fan like myself. Maybe the White Sox or some other team will sign one of these guys to a long term $30MM per year contract as you imply. I remain skeptical because in my opinion neither player is a cornerstone franchise player that can lead his team to a World Series Championship. We’ll see if the market says otherwise.

 

[corbi2961]

Ha. You just got smoked in this thread and don’t even know it yet.

Really what’s next, momma jokes? Are you stuck in 5th grade or have you graduated to junior high yet? Did I tell you “ you got smoked” when the big NU insider that you are was wrong when insisting that Anderson wasn’t going to get the OL coaching job? I am not like you, I can acknowledge when someone has more insight into a subject matter than I do. I don’t stick my nose into every arguement just for the sake of arguing like you have a penchant for doing.

Chicago24 clearly has more insight into the baseball market than I do. That being said, his opinion on Machado and Harper being worth that kind of money is still his opinion. I wholeheartedly disagree with him on that

 

[chicagocatfan24]

I am happy for you. Now that you have shared your bonafides, I acknowledge you certainly have more insight into the baseball market than an average fan like myself. Maybe the White Sox or some other team will sign one of these guys to a long term $30MM per year contract as you imply. I remain skeptical because in my opinion neither player is a cornerstone franchise player that can lead his team to a World Series Championship. We’ll see if the market says otherwise.

He doesn't *need* to be a cornerstone, though he would be. He'll slide into 3B for the Sox should they sign him and they'll still have a minuscule payroll moving forward to complement him with other free agents and their slew of prospects coming up.

 

[corbi2961]

He’s a life coach to his kids. Don’t question his ability to spot leadership from the couch.

That’s uncalled for and inaccurate but I won’t get into that. What I find remarkable if not laughable is that a NU football fan makes light that the concepts of leadership, character, winning attitude (I.e the intangible qualities) are important and make a big difference in the success of a sports team or any organization for that matter. You literally root for a team and a coach who has made the concept of “fit” the cornerstone of the program. It is that “fit” concept that is the biggest factor in NU’s long term success under FItz and yet you seem to ridicule the concept. A head scratcher to say the least but whatever floats your boat.

 

[Gocatsgo2003]

Really what’s next, momma jokes? Are you stuck in 5th grade or have you graduated to junior high yet? Did I tell you “ you got smoked” when the big NU insider that you are was wrong when insisting that Anderson wasn’t going to get the OL coaching job? I am not like you, I can acknowledge when someone has more insight into a subject matter than I do. I don’t stick my nose into every arguement just for the sake of arguing like you have a penchant for doing.

Chicago24 clearly has more insight into the baseball market than I do. That being said, his opinion on Machado and Harper being worth that kind of money is still his opinion. I wholeheartedly disagree with him on that

I thought it less likely that Anderson would get the gig as time passed. That was wrong and I admitted as such.

I’ve also not tried to claim “insider” status for a long time. It’s been almost a decade since I worked for the program and a lot has changed since then. Best I can do is share my perspective and insight into how Fitz usually operates. The “insider” label is mostly thrown around by certain pricks who shall not be named because it’s just too much of a pain to deal with when attempting to troll.

 

[corbi2961]

He doesn't *need* to be a cornerstone, though he would be. He'll slide into 3B for the Sox should they sign him and they'll still have a minuscule payroll moving forward to complement him with other free agents and their slew of prospects coming up.

That’s exactly where we fundamentally disagree. Are you trying to tell me that the White Sox or any baseball team should give a $300mm contract to a player they don’t consider a cornerstone, World Series leading type player? How in the world is that possible? If a non cornerstone player deserves $300mm then what ahould a cornerstone player get? Do you see how the economics just don’t work anymore if what you are saying is accurate?

 

[corbi2961]

I thought it less likely that Anderson would get the gig as time passed. That was wrong and I admitted as such.

I’ve also not tried to claim “insider” status for a long time. It’s been almost a decade since I worked for the program and a lot has changed since then. Best I can do is share my perspective and insight into how Fitz usually operates. The “insider” label is mostly thrown around by certain pricks who shall not be named because it’s just too much of a pain to deal with when attempting to troll.

That’s not the point. The point was that your reaction was infantile.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

That’s uncalled for and inaccurate but I won’t get into that. What I find remarkable if not laughable is that a NU football fan makes light that the concepts of leadership, character, winning attitude (I.e the intangible qualities) are important and make a big difference in the success of a sports team or any organization for that matter. You literally root for a team and a coach who has made the concept of “fit” the cornerstone of the program. It is that “fit” concept that is the biggest factor in NU’s long term success under FItz and yet you seem to ridicule the concept. A head scratcher to say the least but whatever floats your boat.

Okay and I'm telling you his "fit" and "character" aren't a question. If it were, Reinsdorf wouldn't be ready to cut the biggest check in franchise history for him. You have a misconception about him. This is based on "inside" info.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

That’s exactly where we fundamentally disagree. Are you trying to tell me that the White Sox or any baseball team should give a $300mm contract to a player they don’t consider a cornerstone, World Series leading type player? How in the world is that possible? If a non cornerstone player deserves $300mm then what ahould a cornerstone player get? Do you see how the economics just don’t work anymore if what you are saying is accurate?

It's possible because their payroll is peanuts moving forward. They have better financial flexibility than anyone in baseball next year

 

[Gocatsgo2003]

That’s not the point. The point was that your reaction was infantile.

Irony is fun.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

Irony is fun.

I think his "you have inside info, Robin?" comment was supposed to be some dig, but I didn't understand it

 

[corbi2961]

It's possible because their payroll is peanuts moving forward. They have better financial flexibility than anyone in baseball next year

This is the same arguement that I heard from Jesse Rodgers on the Score about a week ago and I just don’t buy it. Just because you can afford something doesn’t mean you should buy it. If you are going to make a guy the highest paid player in baseball and guarantee him a contract that is equal to ~20% of the entire value of your franchise, he better damn be the guy that can lead you quickly to a World Series. If not what is the point? This type of arguement is an example of why I think the economics of baseball are broken. They are going to kill the golden goose if they keep doing business with this mentality.

 

[corbi2961]

Irony is fun.

Where is the irony? I may be stubborn and wrong but infantile is not a word anybody uses to describe me. Quite the opposite actually.

 

[corbi2961]

So wait chicagocatfan24, you answer my other posts within seconds but no answer to the question about intrinsic value and the overall economics of baseball? If, as you say, Machado is worth a $300mm contract even if he is not a cornerstone player, what is the value of a true cornerstone player like Trout? $500MM, $600MM? If the economics of baseball allow a middling franchise like the White Sox to guarantee a non cornerstone single player like Machado a contract that is equal to ~20% of the enterprise value of the entire franchise, what kind of guaranteed contractual obligations will a franchise who actually wants to win a World Series have to make across an entire roster of 25 players? 100% of enterprise value? 200% of enterprise value? How do small market teams have any chance of competing if salaries keep skyrocketing to this degree? What kind of inflation is needed in ticket prices to keep up this pace and at what point does baseball completely price itself out of the market for the average fan? Perhaps you should consider blogging about some of these questions.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

This is the same arguement that I heard from Jesse Rodgers on the Score about a week ago and I just don’t buy it. Just because you can afford something doesn’t mean you should buy it. If you are going to make a guy the highest paid player in baseball and guarantee him a contract that is equal to ~20% of the entire value of your franchise, he better damn be the guy that can lead you quickly to a World Series. If not what is the point? This type of arguement is an example of why I think the economics of baseball are broken. They are going to kill the golden goose if they keep doing business with this mentality.

I was speaking hypothetically when I said he wasn't a cornerstone. He very much is one. He's played 5 full seasons and has put up 6 WAR in 3 of them and 5 in another. He had one down year in 2017 and was hurt in 2014. He can't do it on his own, as referenced by his time in Baltimore, but he's a perfect building block for any organization starving for sustained success, which the sox are.

I will not argue that the economics of baseball are broken, which is the answer to the thesis of this thread anyways

 

[chicagocatfan24]

So wait chicagocatfan24, you answer my other posts within seconds but no answer to the question about intrinsic value and the overall economics of baseball? If, as you say, Machado is worth a $300mm contract even if he is not a cornerstone player, what is the value of a true cornerstone player like Trout? $500MM, $600MM? If the economics of baseball allow a middling franchise like the White Sox to guarantee a non cornerstone single player like Machado a contract that is equal to ~20% of the enterprise value of the entire franchise, what kind of guaranteed contractual obligations will a franchise who actually wants to win a World Series have to make across an entire roster of 25 players? 100% of enterprise value? 200% of enterprise value? What kind of inflation is needed in ticket prices to keep up this pace and at what point does baseball completely price itself out of the market for the average fan? Perhaps you should blog about some of these questions.

I was eating dinner.

If Philly (his rumored eventual landing spot) and Anaheim are the only two organizations who are vying for Trout's services when he's a free agent, he won't be shattering contractual records either. It'll be just like this years' free agent crop, dragging into February and beyond.

If 10 teams all want Trout, that will drive his price up. NYY, Cubs, Red Sox, Angels, Philly, and anyone else

It's supply/demand. I don't know how else to describe it. There are financial/timing reasons why 27-28 teams aren't in on Harper or Machado right now which is why their numbers aren't breaking records like some thought they would.

 

[corbi2961]

I was eating dinner.

If Philly (his rumored eventual landing spot) and Anaheim are the only two organizations who are vying for Trout's services when he's a free agent, he won't be shattering contractual records either. It'll be just like this years' free agent crop, dragging into February and beyond.

If 10 teams all want Trout, that will drive his price up. NYY, Cubs, Red Sox, Angels, Philly, and anyone else

It's supply/demand. I don't know how else to describe it. There are financial/timing reasons why 27-28 teams aren't in on Harper or Machado right now which is why their numbers aren't breaking records like some thought they would.

You act as if a player's value is solely based by how many teams are in a position to bid for him and how much cash they have in the bank. Assuming baseball teams continue to operate as rational profit making businesses (an assumption that maybe I should question based on your insights), then their demand for a particular player ultimately will be driven by their perception of how much marginal profit they will generate by signing that player (i.e his intrinsic value). In order to generate more profit, a team has to win more. So if a team is going to sign a player to the richest contract in baseball history, doesn't it stand to reason that they would expect that player to be among the best players in baseball and one that can lead them to a World Series? We can make this argument a lot more complex but fundamentally I just don't agree with the premise that just because a team can afford to sign a player to the richest contract in baseball that they should do it. The contract has to provide value for the franchise and that value is tied to the player's ability to help them win. If Machado and Harper are not cornerstone players World Series leading type players (My contention), then they certainly don't deserve anywhere close to the type of market setting contracts that their agents are trying to get them.

 

[corbi2961]

I was speaking hypothetically when I said he wasn't a cornerstone. He very much is one. He's played 5 full seasons and has put up 6 WAR in 3 of them and 5 in another. He had one down year in 2017 and was hurt in 2014. He can't do it on his own, as referenced by his time in Baltimore, but he's a perfect building block for any organization starving for sustained success, which the sox are.

I will not argue that the economics of baseball are broken, which is the answer to the thesis of this thread anyways

In your opinion, how many more wins will signing Machado generate for the Sox if they add him to the current roster they are about to enter Spring Training with? What will the increase be in their total attendance in 2019 vs. 2018 if they sign Machado? As a reference, they have averaged 71 wins and 1.68 million in attendance over the last five years.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

You act as if a player's value is solely based by how many teams are in a position to bid for him and how much cash they have in the bank? Assuming baseball teams continue to operate as rational profit making businesses (an assumption that maybe I should question based on your insights), then their demand for a particular player ultimately will be driven by their perception of how much marginal profit they will generate by signing that player (i.e his intrinsic value). In order to generate more profit, a team has to win more. So if a team is going to sign a player to the richest contract in baseball history, doesn't it stand to reason that they would expect that player to be among the best players in baseball and one that can lead them to a World Series? We can make this argument a lot more complex but fundamentally I just don't agree with the premise that just because a team can afford to sign a player to the richest contract in baseball that they should do it. The contract has to provide value for the franchise and that value is tied to the player's ability to help them win. If Machado and Harper are not cornerstone players World Series leading type players (My contention), then they certainly don't deserve anywhere close to the type of market setting contracts that their agents are trying to get them.

You're correct. The team wouldn't drop $300MM or whatever X number on a player just to do so. That'd be dumb. But they do view him as a cornerstone player so they'll drop X number on him. Obviously they have their limit, but they have more room to work with than most teams do right now and are operating as such. Historically they've operated around a $120-130MM payroll. That was 5ish years ago when they were trying to "compete". Now they're around 1/2 that.

The CBT is going to be about $205-206MM this year. The White Sox as of now will be about $70MM heading into the season. If they give Machado $30MM/year, give or take, they'll have a franchise, cornerstone 3B locked up long term, and that position has been the boogeyman for them since Joe Crede.

And ticket sales are only a fraction of the money generation for the organization. The Sox now have a TV deal worth 100s of Millions through comcast that is going to drive most their revenue. That and stadium naming rights, as dumb as a name as it is, is bringing in 10s of millions.

Reinsdorf, love him or hate him, is a masterful businessman. He wouldn't allow this pursuit to happen if it weren't a good business decision. I mean, he has the very best stadium deal in all of American sports. I won't go into it, but google the lease for the Sox and GRF.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

In your opinion, how many more wins will signing Machado generate for the Sox if they add him to the current roster they are about to enter Spring Training with? What will the increase be in their total attendance in 2019 vs. 2018 if they sign Machado? As a reference, they have averaged 71 wins and 1.68 million in attendance over the last five years.

Right now, assuming no injury and gradual improvement from Moncada and the starting rotation, I'd say it's about a 72-75 win team once Jimenez is up in mid-April. Add him, Machado and Pederson (they're in on him right now and almost landed him a few weeks ago before media leaks screwed it up) to the lineup and they're a 80ish median win team. 85 if everything goes perfectly, 75 if they completely **** the bed.

2020 is the year where they expect their window to be fully open and compete for the division title annually. That's when Robert, Cease, Dunning, Madrigal, Kopech, etc. should all be in Chicago, all of whom will be on pre arb deals, and they'll complement all of those pieces with more free agents. They can't control that Machado/Harper are free agents this year, but they are, so they have no choice but to pursue them a year "early". It just so happened the market was supressed and worked in their favor perfectly to the point where Hahn said he'd be disappointed if they didn't land one of the "whales" as he calls them.

Edit: grammar

 

[corbi2961]

You're correct. The team wouldn't drop $300MM or whatever X number on a player just to do so. That'd be dumb. But they do view him as a cornerstone player so they'll drop X number on him. Obviously they have their limit, but they have more room to work with than most teams do right now and are operating as such. Historically they've operated around a $120-130MM payroll. That was 5ish years ago when they were trying to "compete". Now they're around 1/2 that.

The CBT is going to be about $205-206MM this year. The White Sox as of now will be about $70MM heading into the season. If they give Machado $30MM/year, give or take, they'll have a franchise, cornerstone 3B locked up long term, and that position has been the boogeyman for them since Joe Crede.

And ticket sales are only a fraction of the money generation for the organization. The Sox now have a TV deal worth 100s of Millions through comcast that is going to drive most their revenue. That and stadium naming rights, as dumb as a name as it is, is bringing in 10s of millions.

Reinsdorf, love him or hate him, is a masterful businessman. He wouldn't allow this pursuit to happen if it weren't a good business decision. I mean, he has the very best stadium deal in all of American sports. I won't go into it, but google the lease for the Sox and GRF.

I know first hand that Reinsdorf is a very good businessman and know all about their sweetheart stadium deal (you should ask yourself what happens to the White Sox in a few years when they start renegotiating that lease). He wouldn't be as wealthy as he is if he wasn't. I just question his loyalty and judgement on some of the people he hires ( see Kenny Williams, John Paxson, and perhaps soon you'll have to add Rick Hahn to that list). I also understand all the reasons why they have the financial wherewithal to sign him to such a contract. I just don't agree that he is worth that kind of money to any team nor do I think that he will help turn around the Sox franchise.

 

[corbi2961]

Right now, assuming no injury and gradual improvement from Moncada and the starting rotation, I'd say it's about a 72-75 win team once Jimenez is up in mid-April. Add him, Machado and Pederson (they're in on him right now and almost landed him a few weeks ago before media leaks screwed it up) to the lineup and they're a 80ish median win team. 85 if everything goes perfectly, 75 if they completely **** the bed.

2020 is the year where they expect their window to be fully open and compete for the division title annually. That's when Robert, Cease, Dunning, Madrigal, Kopech, etc. should all be in Chicago, all of whom will be on pre arb deals, and they'll complement all of those pieces with more free agents. They can't control that Machado/Harper are free agents this year, but they are, so they have no choice but to pursue them a year "early". It just so happened the market was supressed and worked in their favor perfectly to the point where Hahn said he'd be disappointed if they didn't land one of the "whales" as he calls them.

Edit: grammar

This post sounds like the dreams of an optimistic Sox fan, not the opinions of an objective baseball blogger. With or without Machado I think they struggle to get to 75 wins this year and I have serious questions about the quality/health of the Sox prospects outside of Jimenez and Cease. If Hahn hadn't made that trade with the Cubs, I think he would have a lot of heat on him right now. His drafting has been mediocre at best and his other trades don't look like good values where things stand right now.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

This post sounds like the dreams of an optimistic Sox fan, not the opinions of an objective baseball blogger. With or without Machado I think they struggle to get to 75 wins this year and I have serious questions about the quality/health of the Sox prospects outside of Jimenez and Cease. If Hahn hadn't made that trade with the Cubs, I think he would have a lot of heat on him right now. His drafting has been mediocre at best and his other trades don't look like good values where things stand right now.

I said 72-75 assuming gradual improvements. Machado and Joc would replace Engel (the worst offensive player in baseball last year) and Yolmer Sanchez (fine utility guy, but nowhere near a starter) and that's a MASSIVE improvement in just two players. Then you have Jimenez up to replace Palka/Delmonico and Alonso to replace Palka/Delmonico. Another big improvement should they play to expected performance. Steamer already predicts Eloy to have a 3.5 WAR season this year. That's replacing -1, 0, 0, 1.5 WAR players with 3, 3.5, 5.0 and 2.0 WAR players. Huge swing.

And Moncada will be better this year. He's a definitely work in progress, but if his floor is a 2.0 WAR player like he was last year, that's not a bad player, and is a starter on most teams, but not the superstar they obviously wanted.

Right now Vegas has their O/U at 74.5 which I think is about right. Next year should be the year they're off to the races, at least on paper

 

[Fitz51]

That’s uncalled for and inaccurate but I won’t get into that. What I find remarkable if not laughable is that a NU football fan makes light that the concepts of leadership, character, winning attitude (I.e the intangible qualities) are important and make a big difference in the success of a sports team or any organization for that matter. You literally root for a team and a coach who has made the concept of “fit” the cornerstone of the program. It is that “fit” concept that is the biggest factor in NU’s long term success under FItz and yet you seem to ridicule the concept. A head scratcher to say the least but whatever floats your boat.

This argument doesn’t fit.

 

[Fitz51]

This is the same arguement that I heard from Jesse Rodgers on the Score

I am pretty certain admitting to list to terrestrial sports talk radio invalidates all other arguments.

 

[IGNORE]

Where is the irony? I may be stubborn and wrong but infantile is not a word anybody uses to describe me. Quite the opposite actually.

Yes, you are stubborn and wrong.

 

[corbi2961]

This argument doesn’t fit.

How so? I think it fits really well.

 

[corbi2961]

Yes, you are stubborn and wrong.

LOL, you should be the last one to be talking. Let's talk the next time one of your predictions comes to fruition.

 

[corbi2961]

I am pretty certain admitting to list to terrestrial sports talk radio invalidates all other arguments.

What else is there to do when you are on a long drive?

 

[corbi2961]

I said 72-75 assuming gradual improvements. Machado and Joc would replace Engel (the worst offensive player in baseball last year) and Yolmer Sanchez (fine utility guy, but nowhere near a starter) and that's a MASSIVE improvement in just two players. Then you have Jimenez up to replace Palka/Delmonico and Alonso to replace Palka/Delmonico. Another big improvement should they play to expected performance. Steamer already predicts Eloy to have a 3.5 WAR season this year. That's replacing -1, 0, 0, 1.5 WAR players with 3, 3.5, 5.0 and 2.0 WAR players. Huge swing.

And Moncada will be better this year. He's a definitely work in progress, but if his floor is a 2.0 WAR player like he was last year, that's not a bad player, and is a starter on most teams, but not the superstar they obviously wanted.

Right now Vegas has their O/U at 74.5 which I think is about right. Next year should be the year they're off to the races, at least on paper

Just out of curiosity, did you know John Arguello from Cubs Den?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

You guys need to grab about 6 pitchers of PBR at B Dubs and put this issue on ice.

 

[IGNORE]

Hey Chicago, what’s your take on the ‘mystery’ team in the hunt for Machado?

 

[TheC]

Irony is fun.

Where is the irony? I may be stubborn and wrong but infantile is not a word anybody uses to describe me. Quite the opposite actually.

This is like watching Godzilla fight King Kong!

 

[chicagocatfan24]

Hey Chicago, what’s your take on the ‘mystery’ team in the hunt for Machado?

Mystery team is code for "I'm an agent and I need leverage to get the publicly known team to up their offer"

Mystery teams don't exist. Social media makes it just about impossible to keep info secret.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Granted it is only 32 PAs, but 21 year old Eloy is destroying the Dominican Winter League with a 1259 OPS. Teams in the DWL have been averaging 3.6 runs per game.

 

[NUCat320]

Did you read any of @chicagocatfan24 ’s posts? He’s literally a professional White Sox/baseball blogger.

This is a great thread. If he were a real blogger, tho, he’d share some Sox listicles.