Just use this as your judge.. Whenever you hear "mortality rate" from Fauci or the like, they are discussing the percentage of deaths vs total carriers of the virus.
OT: COVID-19 news. Out of over 3000 positive tests in prison
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Just use this as your judge.. Whenever you hear "mortality rate" from Fauci or the like, they are discussing the percentage of deaths vs total carriers of the virus.
Our children will be fine. Especially if we take measures to not minimize this virus, and shoot straight. Some haven't shot straight about this virus, and it will continue to impact the lives of others for the remainder of the virus.
I agree, we need to move forward, but NOT without widespread testing. App. 50,000+ people have died from this virus in the last 3 1/2 weeks. People can't return to life as we knew it for quite some time, and we need testing to try to return to some semblance of life.
If these 31 states that are opening for business don't have massive testing, this thing is going to take off again. We all know it, but not enough people are saying it out loud.
Sounds fine, but you don't actually know if this thing is going to take off again to make an absolute statement like that. We are still relying on projection models that have proven to be faulty based on actual data. Testing is great and needed, but it really does nothing more than providing information that we can use later.
Maybe when he is talking to the public in layman's terms, but when he is getting sciency he uses the cdc term CFR.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
Wow, you can't possibly be that short-sighted, can you?
You really think that 31 states opening up and relaxing their guidelines isn't going to increase transmission? Where do you get your science data, from Cracker Jack's boxes?
Testing would tell us definitively who could go back to work and who couldn't right now. Sure, some spread would occur, but initially it could be minimized based on testing.
Have you secretly been meeting with Fauci for the inside goods or something? Tell us, what does he share with you during these secret meetings when you've been seeing him outside of his public press conferences? Can you share, or are you beholden to super duper double secret guidelines?
You were presenting yourself as a man of science and insinuating that others are not. I just presented the cdc definitions and an example of Fauci using them.
Ok. Use your science and tell me how many people are going to die from these states opening up. If you know with any level of certainty that your science is correct it should be easy.
Sorry, didn't read it. If it's anything like the rest of the nonsense you've been shoveling, I'll pass. Just realize that when he is talking to you and I and the rest of the population, he is using mortality rate based on deaths/carriers. Got it?
I was literally posting definitions from the cdc website and an article from the New England Journal of Medicine, so I guess those are nonsense. Good to know.
OK, silly boy, let's talk reality. Can you handle reality, and not the garbage you've been witnessing on TV? Are you up to it?
There are currently 907,000+ active cases that have tested positive in the U.S. Up until today, 30-35% of those that have tested positive, and the virus has run its course, have died from this virus. That's reality. It's not some estimate of those infected. It's those that have recovered after testing positive vs those that have died. 30-35% have died.
With remdesivir, that number should improve by maybe 5 percentage points. And let's say with some of these current active cases, the numbers include some less severe patients, since testing has become slightly more readily available. Even if we reduce that number down to 20% for those have tested positive, what is 20% of 907,000 people, Professor Plum? Count on 180,000 Americans dying from that group in the next few months.
What? You don't think it's possible? Did you think 50,000 could die in 3 1/2 weeks? Well, it just happened. And those are the numbers from the people that are CURRENTLY active cases. It doesn't even take into account those people that will contract the virus going forward, after 31 states open up for business.
BTW, that 30-35% number has remained consistently between 30 - 35% for at least 5 or 6 weeks. It will no doubt start coming down, with less ill people starting to get tested, but many of those 907,000 people got tested because they had symptoms, not because they were just going to get tested to confirm they didn't have it.
If no other questions, I'll go ahead and dismiss class..
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Not sure if serious, but if so this has to be the most bizarre manipulation of data sets I've ever read.
So instead of a long-winded response that is nothing close to reality, go back to the original question and tell me how many people are going to die from these states opening back up. Not 30% of a segment of 20% of an unknown quantity, just actual numbers. Or do you want to stick with 180k?
professor, you cannot honestly think that, after the virus has been here for 4+ months, that few have had it run its course and recovered.
It's good you've been broadening your reading. Most here are still getting their science news from bloggers or anecdotal stories from their cousin, who owns a restaurant or hardware store.
As long as you keep in mind that mortality rate means deaths/carriers when Fauci or any other science guy speaks in public, you shouldn't have any problems going forward.
Give Medscape a read. Those articles are good sciency stuff.
Yeah, unless it has changed recently, i dont think Nebraska was even tracking, let alone reporting recoveries. Yet, we have been seeing patients being released from the hospital on the local news and reading articles of recoveries in the local papers. Just recently there was an article about a 92 and a 94 year old who beat the odds.
So you're saying those 50,000 people that just died over the last 3 1/2 weeks didn't really die? Really, where can I read this article?
Again, let's do the math for you. How many days is 3 1/2 weeks? Let's say 24. Well over 2,000 people have been dying daily for quite some time. Now...let's take 24 x 2,000. Voila...48,000. This isn't difficult math. Even you can do it...I think.
Throw out estimated mortality rates, my friend. They mean nothing. What means something is the number of people that have been dying each day from this virus. And then take into account how many active cases there are. Do you think people are all of a sudden going to stop dying, because of remdesivir, you silly twit?
And what do you think is going to happen with states opening back up? I'll let you in on a little secret...increased cases = increased deaths.
Now be on your merry way, wear your mask, and start thinking 'the mortality rate of cases that have run the course of the virus,' not some ridiculous estimated mortality rate. When this virus kills over 200,000 Americans you won't be so shocked by it.
Hoosier Du, i understand you concern. We all know what could happen. But what if we don’t open up the country? What happens then? Why won’t anyone release stats about the mental, physical and economic toll on us? We all know people will continue to die. But they already are anyway. What happens if we continue the course? I think a lot of us realize it could be catastrophic if we don’t start moving forward now. If you know what will happen if we don’t open up the country, please tell us.
You said a lot without really saying anything there. If you are so sure of your position, just give a number of deaths. Even just a range. It seems like you are positing based on fear as opposed to science but are trying to justify that fear with vague numbers as a rationale. Just give a range. 200k- 500k? 500k- 1M?
I'll do it. <120k by August regardless of whether states open up or not.
Well then, now that 2 older people have been released from the hospital, by God, let's stop the research on vaccines. No need to spend billions on vaccines any longer.
Drs. are still making their way through treatments, and are still determining protocol. Remdesivir and rheumatoid arthritis meds are the most recent I've heard, but interleukin-6 meds and other steroids have been used to mitigate inflammation, but they still haven't come to a consensus yet. A lot more people are going to die from this virus before it's over.
Would you please answer my question from a couple of posts above? Tell me what will happen if we don't open up the country? Do you think that won't also cause extreme hardship, death, hunger, etc.?
Your right. No one wants to hear success stories. Simply pointing out that we know that the number of recoveries is incorrect. To introduce policy based on deaths vs recoveries wouldn't make sense when you know the recovery number is wrong.
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To more safely open up the country, we have to beg, borrow, or steal as many reliable kits as we can get our hands on. We are flying blind otherwise. Do you really want to fly blind when reentering the workforce?
I don't want my friends and family flying blind when going back to work. And I'm not too fond of the idea myself, since I work in healthcare sales. But I will go back in wearing what I need to wear. I'm more concerned with others going back in without PPE.
Man, come on...we all love to hear success stories. They make me tear up as much as the next person. Probably more so even, because I care about the welfare of patients, and I see what they have to endure.
If you can't tell, I'm pretty concerned about the health and welfare of people in general. Every one of these deaths is a person, with a story behind every one of them. And each death impacts 100s, if not thousands of other people.
But to say that 2 seniors that weren't expected to make it, making it, will determine work on vaccines, isn't realistic. If we start seeing 80% of patients that go into the hospital for Coronavirus coming out alive, maybe so, but they will continue to forge ahead with vaccine research.
You didn't answer my question-- tell me what happens if we don't open up the country? What toll does it take? We know the risks of doing so. What are the risks of not doing so?
My initial point said nothing about vaccines, only that recovery counts are inaccurate and shouldn't be used in calculations concerning policy.
I said above that over 200,000 Americans are going to die from this virus. Actually, I think that is a light estimate. And no, I won't be betting on the death numbers of people, so save it.
I hope like hell I'm wrong, but do you know of ANY global pandemic in the history of the world that fizzled out in less than a year. And one like this, that is entrenched in the U.S...will be around until next spring at least, unless they discover a lifesaving vaccine, or vastly increase testing. Even then, it won't be until late 2020 before it can be put to use.
quick question- how many have died from “regular” flu this year? Not trying to be curt, just can’t find the real stats....
Does 52,456 U.S deaths in the last 25 days impact those calculations though? No calculations required. More than 2,000 Americans have been dying each day for the last 25+ days.
Do you think these numbers are going to go down when we open the states up again? The summer may have some impact, but honestly I see the weather and the relaxing of social distancing offsetting each other, and I still see 2,000 dying each day.
They mostly give a range, but I would say 30,000-40,000 in the U.S. would be a safe range...for the entire year, which mostly covers October - May.
Fauci has said that Covid-19 is app. 10 times the mortality rate. Now keep in mind that is an estimate. We won't know for years what the mortality rate will be for Covid-19. But 10 times 35,000 is 350,000.
Hope you're going to a nice secluded place. Have fun, and stay safe. Take a mask with you, just in case.
Actually i am. I will be around less people than any giving day being at home and at work. We have made some minor changes with the traveling portion of the trip to be safer but that is about it.
Yes, it sucks that we are all having to minimize interaction with others, but is the isolation killing 2,000 people a day in the U.S.? Not anytime soon I wouldn't think.
And of course we're killing our economy. How could it not? But we are going to kill a lot more people by opening everything up. Are we willing to trade the lives of millions of people to get the economy going again? I'm of a different mind set, that we need to do whatever we can to preserve lives first, and try to restart the economy within that framework. Without testing, we can't safely do both.
Everything I've seen is a range, which says to those that are barking about other deaths being identified as C-19 deaths, lighten up, it happens with other death categories as well.
Wish I were going to a place like that. It would be nice to get away from the stressors of worrying about this crap each day. Have a great time!
I'm not questioning your opinion, but how do you come to that conclusion? It seems like this has been painted as being the worst case of what a coronavirus is mixed with the worst case of what Spanish flu is. Why not compare it to sars, which had a high mortality rate but didn't come back? Is there any science that suggests this will come back after this summer other than a worst case assumption?
Doc Holliday:
What do you want Wyatt?
Wyatt Earp:
Just to live a normal life.
Doc Holliday:
There is no normal life, there's just life, ya live it.
Wyatt Earp:
I don't know how.
Doc Holliday:
Sure ya do, say goodbye to me, go grab that spirited actress and make her your own. Take that and don't look back. Live every second, live right on through the end. Live Wyatt, live for me. Wyatt, if you were ever truly my friend, or if ya ever had just the slightest of feelin' for me, leave now, leave now, please.
Wyatt Earp:
Thanks for always being there, Doc.
GO BIG RED!!
What do you want Wyatt?
Wyatt Earp:
Just to live a normal life.
Doc Holliday:
There is no normal life, there's just life, ya live it.
Wyatt Earp:
I don't know how.
Doc Holliday:
Sure ya do, say goodbye to me, go grab that spirited actress and make her your own. Take that and don't look back. Live every second, live right on through the end. Live Wyatt, live for me. Wyatt, if you were ever truly my friend, or if ya ever had just the slightest of feelin' for me, leave now, leave now, please.
Wyatt Earp:
Thanks for always being there, Doc.
GO BIG RED!!
Explain why more deaths have occurred in areas that have done more and earlier social distancing
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