OT: Electric vehicles

[rucoe89]

are people actually hyping windmills?
L
O
L

looks like people are really misinformed on energy consumption for energy production. Each windmill takes over 2 decades to break even on total energy inputs vs outputs.

Determination of "break even" is not binary. Again with numbers you can play that a lot of ways. The same question you pose can be applied to any new power generation station you install today. I can tell you for certain, there is a lot of investment in all forms of energy generation --- wind, nuclear (fission), geothermal, hydro, etc.

As to impact though, wind production is real. Texas energy production alone is now 30% wind.

 

[RUDiddy777]

Determination of "break even" is not binary. Again with numbers you can play that a lot of ways. As to impact though, wind production is real. Texas energy production alone is now 30% wind.

Texas has done a lot of great stuff on renewable generation. They just don’t like to talk about it.

 

[rucoe89]

Texas has done a lot of great stuff on renewable generation. They just don’t like to talk about it.

Their oil and gas old money folks hate the narratives on alternative and work hard to bury it or denigrate it. But lucky for Texas there are folks that are undeterred and helping make progress in other forms of energy generation.

 

[RUDiddy777]

That would be incorrect. Facts:

There are now 39 countries where EVs make up more than 10% of new car sales, compared with just four in 2019.
Singapore and Vietnam have reached EV sales shares of around 40%, overtaking levels seen in the UK and the EU.
Indonesia has reached 15% this year, surpassing the US for the first time. Thailand has reached 20% and has sold more EVs in the first three quarters of 2025 than Denmark. In Latin America, Uruguay has reached a 27% EV share, roughly in line with the EU.

25% of new cars sold globally in 2025 were EVs – here's who bought them

More than 25% of new cars sold globally in 2025 are now EVs, according to new analysis from energy think tank Ember.

electrek.co

Part of the challenge in Europe is the preference for smaller vehicles - as he pointed out, Europe is clustered. But that’s fatal, as new, smaller, cheaper models continue to be deployed.

In the most recent WEO, the IEA projects EV sales to double to 40 million by 2030.

 

[RUDiddy777]

Determination of "break even" is not binary. Again with numbers you can play that a lot of ways. The same question you pose can be applied to any new power generation station you install today. I can tell you for certain, there is a lot of investment in all forms of energy generation --- wind, nuclear (fission), geothermal, hydro, etc.

As to impact though, wind production is real. Texas energy production alone is now 30% wind.

Energy breakeven for a wind turbine is 4-12 months. Financial breakeven in 7 years.

 

[RUDiddy777]

Their oil and gas old money folks hate the narratives on alternative and work hard to bury it or denigrate it. But lucky for Texas there are folks that are undeterred and helping make progress in other forms of energy generation.

ha, and all that money the O&G old money folks accumulate ends up in NIL!

 

[T2Kplus20]

No. China buys more BEVs than PHEVs and has every year since 2015. However, 2024 PHEV grew at faster rate.

Nope, hybrids dominate the China market. And they will for a long, long time.

 

[Knight Shift]

you are way smarter than this

adoption and sales are fundamentally different. Most of Europe is in the 4% range for adoption. Sales don't matter because Europe isn't built like the rest of the world for transit and has a cluster based model for habitat. Europe accounts for over 1/3 of all EV adoption and Europe accts for less than 6% of the world's population. Of that more than half is gov't related adoption. China too is cluster focused so it's skewed.

now when you look at car sales, 3 of the top 10 in sales are Europe with declining YoY total sales numbers. Those numbers include roughly 4% non gov't sales. China is number 1 is car sales with half being EV.

Now when we look further into it, China isn't buying pure EV, they are mixed/hybrid models which are roughly half the 'ev' sales.

I could go on but you get the point. Of course each market is different but none of this paints a rosey picture for global adoption of EV sales at any rate that would suggest diamonds in the sky

Thanks for the compliment, and I am not trying to sound snarky-- not clear on what you mean by "adoption' and it seems to be at odds with the accepted definition. Can you provide a different definition of adoption, because this is what Grok says:

"In industry reports (from sources like the International Energy Agency, S&P Global, and BloombergNEF), "EV adoption rate" almost always means the sales share percentage, not the cumulative stock of EVs on the road."

Is the cumulative stock of EVs on the road what you meant by adoption? If that is the case, do you reasonably expect people to sell/trade their existing vehicle to get into an EV? That seems like a tall expectation.

 

[RUDiddy777]

Nope, hybrids dominate the China market. And they will for a long, long time.

Not according to the IEA.

 

[bac2therac]

you can click the pic to make it bigger

Europe had to back off on its ban beginning in 2035 now to just 90%,,,that is just the beginning of the backtrack

Maryland has paused their requirements for 2027...what will Mikie do

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-relent-combustion-engines-ban-after-auto-industry-pressure-2025-12-16/

From the Wall Street Journal, October 14:

The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs. Canada, U.K. and European Union back off electric-vehicle targets as economic reality sets in and even China shows cracks. . . . Carmakers argue the EV business model is an unprofitable proposition given still-high battery costs, spotty car-charging networks and dwindling government subsidies. Incentive programs have ended or have been pared back across Europe and in the U.S. and Canada.

 

[bac2therac]

if solar/wind is so beneficial then why....

 

[koleszar]

Power consumed in NJ is often produced outside of the state - and has been for a while. Wind and solar provide about 7% of power in PJM and that is expected to double next year. PJM also has the highest concentration of data centers in the world.

A while, try less than 7 yrs. ago NJ was self-sufficient in energy production and used to sell back to the grid. This was a government made problem, specifically a Murphy made problem. It's why everyone's electric bills skyrocketed.

Don't act like people are choosing this on their own volition, they're being forced into it by governments. No one choses higher costs that's what wind and solar give you. And when you give every Tom, D*ck and Harry taxpayer money to build it, they're going to build it, yet the returns are never close to what they promise.

 

[RUDiddy777]

A while, try less than 7 yrs. ago NJ was self-sufficient in energy production and used to sell back to the grid. This was a government made problem, specifically a Murphy made problem. It's why everyone's electric bills skyrocketed.

Don't act like people are choosing this on their own volition, they're being forced into it by governments. No one choses higher costs that's what wind and solar give you. And when you give every Tom, D*ck and Harry taxpayer money to build it, they're going to build it, yet the returns are never close to what they promise.

You need to do a little more homework. The most significant driver of that was the closure of Oyster Creek nuclear and 5 coal plants - and those were underway well before Murphy took office. Those were economic decisions, not political ones - they couldn’t compete with the abundance of natural gas in the Marcellus. Nat gas has been killing coal nationally since like 2012. Solar didn’t become a serious option until like 2019, 2020 when it became to cheap to ignore.

Renewables are generally funded by tax credits, both the ITC and PTC, not taxpayer handouts.

Again, the increase in costs are the result of underinvestment in infrastructure (our grid is really old) and rapid increases in demand for data centers, power prices and demand were largely flat until early 2023 when Gen AIs emergence changed everything. DCs pay a lower rate for power than residential consumers. The costs of capacity market auctions is also a cost borne by consumers, and there have been massive increases in capacity costs in PJM over the last couple of years. It costs a lot of money to keep old coal plants around in case we need them.

In short, this situation would be far worse without low cost renewables, which have offset some of the 5 GW capacity that was lost from nuclear and coal generation. We should be accelerating their deployment - not cancelling nearly complete projects. In fact, those of us who switched to residential rooftop a while ago are doing well.

 

[RUDiddy777]

you can click the pic to make it bigger

Europe had to back off on its ban beginning in 2035 now to just 90%,,,that is just the beginning of the backtrack

Maryland has paused their requirements for 2027...what will Mikie do

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-relent-combustion-engines-ban-after-auto-industry-pressure-2025-12-16/

From the Wall Street Journal, October 14:

The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs. Canada, U.K. and European Union back off electric-vehicle targets as economic reality sets in and even China shows cracks. . . . Carmakers argue the EV business model is an unprofitable proposition given still-high battery costs, spotty car-charging networks and dwindling government subsidies. Incentive programs have ended or have been pared back across Europe and in the U.S. and Canada.

Im not a huge fan of these mandates - and to be honest, they’re more goals and market signals than a serious obligation. I also don’t think the economics of electrification make a lot of sense in many parts of the country.

I’m not sure what cracks China is showing - there will consolidation in their EV industry. It won’t be easy to sustain the growth rates they currently have, but that’s sort of normal. The relatively low cost of crude right now is the result of them peaking in petroleum demand and expecting that demand to decline as they become energy self sufficient. They’ve become an electro state and that will give them enormous geopolitical influence from everywhere to SE Asia to Africa and South America.

 

[RUDiddy777]

if solar/wind is so beneficial then why....

The northeast states generally don’t have resources but do have a lot of people, lots of industry and because of that, data centers are growing more rapidly in those regions (certainly EVs and industrial decarbonization are part of the story - but there is also offsetting as you change the primary energy source). ND has abundant coal and wind. Iowa - 50% of their power is wind. Texas, massive solar, wind, and abundant cheap nat gas (just like Louisiana). States like Idaho have abundant hydro. NE states operate on 3 ISOs.

You need to understand market infrastructure, policy (which aren’t terribly dissimilar between states) and resource availability to really form an opinion. This doesn’t lend itself to your blue bad, red good worldview.

 

[Knight Shift]

you can click the pic to make it bigger

Europe had to back off on its ban beginning in 2035 now to just 90%,,,that is just the beginning of the backtrack

Maryland has paused their requirements for 2027...what will Mikie do

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-relent-combustion-engines-ban-after-auto-industry-pressure-2025-12-16/

From the Wall Street Journal, October 14:

The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs. Canada, U.K. and European Union back off electric-vehicle targets as economic reality sets in and even China shows cracks. . . . Carmakers argue the EV business model is an unprofitable proposition given still-high battery costs, spotty car-charging networks and dwindling government subsidies. Incentive programs have ended or have been pared back across Europe and in the U.S. and Canada.

Mikie? She will require windmill powered and rechargeable EVS! She's going to make Murphy look conservative.

 

[Knight Shift]

Im not a huge fan of these mandates - and to be honest, they’re more goals and market signals than a serious obligation. I also don’t think the economics of electrification make a lot of sense in many parts of the country.

I’m not sure what cracks China is showing - there will consolidation in their EV industry. It won’t be easy to sustain the growth rates they currently have, but that’s sort of normal. The relatively low cost of crude right now is the result of them peaking in petroleum demand and expecting that demand to decline as they become energy self sufficient. They’ve become an electro state and that will give them enormous geopolitical influence from everywhere to SE Asia to Africa and South America.

Then why have mandates? It just enrages a segment of the population and turns into rage clickbait. Let the market decide.

There are plenty of EV owners, including me, who are thrilled with their EVs. However, we have a hybrid/gasoline powered vehicles for all the reasons that have been listed, namely the US charging network is not great. But as far as a daily driver and commuting vehicle, EVs are great- never have to stop for gas, free charging at home with solar panels on roof, and virtually no maintenance such as oil changes, transmission fluid, radiator, etc. EVs are not for everyone.

 

[RUDiddy777]

Then why have mandates? It just enrages a segment of the population and turns into rage clickbait. Let the market decide.

There are plenty of EV owners, including me, who are thrilled with their EVs. However, we have a hybrid/gasoline powered vehicles for all the reasons that have been listed, namely the US charging network is not great. But as far as a daily driver and commuting vehicle, EVs are great- never have to stop for gas, free charging at home with solar panels on roof, and virtually no maintenance such as oil changes, transmission fluid, radiator, etc. EVs are not for everyone.

I agree with that - and there are plenty of flaws in renewable energy policy. I think PHEV make a ton of sense and think the industry focus on them for now is good, just think they also need to keep focus on BEV as well for the long term. I think continued increases in fuel efficiency standards for new ICE is a waste of time and money.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I agree with that - and there are plenty of flaws in renewable energy policy. I think PHEV make a ton of sense and think the industry focus on them for now is good, just think they also need to keep focus on BEV as well for the long term. I think continued increases in fuel efficiency standards for new ICE is a waste of time and money.

Until we get more nuclear plants built, the state/national renewable energy policies are a joke and only to serve political purposes.

Moreover, the gov'ment should be pumping money into fusion research (which is the one source that could actually solve all of our future energy problems). Forget solar and wind.

 

[Knight Shift]

I agree with that - and there are plenty of flaws in renewable energy policy. I think PHEV make a ton of sense and think the industry focus on them for now is good, just think they also need to keep focus on BEV as well for the long term. I think continued increases in fuel efficiency standards for new ICE is a waste of time and money.

Something that our fearless leaders need to learn and should have learned dating back to 2020, regardless of their "side", people don't like having mandates on nearly anything forced down their throats. This applies to most every issue.

 

[mdk02]

Until we get more nuclear plants built, the state/national renewable energy policies are a joke and only to serve political purposes.

Moreover, the gov'ment should be pumping money into fusion research (which is the one source that could actually solve all of our future energy problems). Forget solar and wind.

Fusion has been 20 years away for the last 50 years. I'm not holding my breath.

 

[RUDiddy777]

Something that our fearless leaders need to learn and should have learned dating back to 2020, regardless of their "side", people don't like having mandates on nearly anything forced down their throats. This applies to most every issue.

I think R-Chip Roy’s rant yesterday (?) was spot on. Congress sucks. Our politicians suck. We’re mostly (there are some good ones) being “led” by narcissistic sociopaths who are more interested in getting rich and/or getting on TV than doing their ******* jobs.

 

[RUDiddy777]

Fusion has been 20 years away for the last 50 years. I'm not holding my breath.

TK is just talking out of his *** (mostly). And youre right - it’s far away. But it’s worth the investment, but it’s not close to being a scalable or affordable solution. Maybe my grandkids will be see it come to fruition and they’ll tell me about it when I’m living in the Sierra Nevadas.

He’s right about nuclear, but modularity is key (which is why China is getting so many things right). Frankly, China is kicking our *** in just about everything, we just haven’t realized it yet.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Fusion has been 20 years away for the last 50 years. I'm not holding my breath.

Keep going, national effort to figure it out, just like getting to the moon in the 60s. The reward to too great to bother with anything else.

 

[T2Kplus20]

TK is just talking out of his *** (mostly). And youre right - it’s far away. But it’s worth the investment, but it’s not close to being a scalable or affordable solution. Maybe my grandkids will be see it come to fruition and they’ll tell me about it when I’m living in the Sierra Nevadas.

He’s right about nuclear, but modularity is key (which is why China is getting so many things right). Frankly, China is kicking our *** in just about everything, we just haven’t realized it yet.

Thank you for agreeing with both my points. I know that was hard for you.

 

[mdk02]

I think R-Chip Roy’s rant yesterday (?) was spot on. Congress sucks. Our politicians suck. We’re mostly (there are some good ones) being “led” by narcissistic sociopaths who are more interested in getting rich and/or getting on TV than doing their ******* jobs.

Social media and the media in general cater to the ********. Eyeballs and clicks

But there is something else. The shared experience of a generation that went through WWII is no longer there. Of course there were political differences. The pilot and the waist gunner in a B17 might not have seen eye to eye. But they didn't accept the lead of a narcissistic sociopath who would demonize one or the other. Same for 2 women who worked side by side in a defense plant building that B-17.

 

[MADHAT1]

EVs are the future , but the technology needed to make them the best option isn't there yet.
China is the country developing that technology and China is the undisputed leader in both manufacturing and selling the most electric vehicles (EVs), dominating global production (over 70%) and accounting for a massive share of worldwide sales (nearly two-thirds in 2024), driven by strong government support, a huge domestic market, and booming exports to places like Brazil, Mexico, and Southeast Asia..

 

[RUDiddy777]

EVs are the future , but the technology needed to make them the best option isn't there yet.
China is the country developing that technology and China is the undisputed leader in both manufacturing and selling the most electric vehicles (EVs), dominating global production (over 70%) and accounting for a massive share of worldwide sales (nearly two-thirds in 2024), driven by strong government support, a huge domestic market, and booming exports to places like Brazil, Mexico, and Southeast Asia..

And then when these countries need more energy to power them, China will also be who they turn too. We’ve wasted too much time fighting stupid wars and with each other - we weren’t paying attention while they set up themselves up to dominate the next century.

 

[mdk02]

EVs are the future , but the technology needed to make them the best option isn't there yet.
China is the country developing that technology and China is the undisputed leader in both manufacturing and selling the most electric vehicles (EVs), dominating global production (over 70%) and accounting for a massive share of worldwide sales (nearly two-thirds in 2024), driven by strong government support, a huge domestic market, and booming exports to places like Brazil, Mexico, and Southeast Asia..

And they continue to build coal fired generating plants to provide the electricity for those vehicles. Not quite the technological leaders you portray them as

 

[mdk02]

And then when these countries need more energy to power them, China will also be who they turn too. We’ve wasted too much time fighting stupid wars and with each other - we weren’t paying attention while they set up themselves up to dominate the next century.

So the future is coal?

 

[e5fdny]

TK is just talking out of his *** (mostly). And youre right - it’s far away. But it’s worth the investment, but it’s not close to being a scalable or affordable solution. Maybe my grandkids will be see it come to fruition and they’ll tell me about it when I’m living in the Sierra Nevadas.

He’s right about nuclear, but modularity is key (which is why China is getting so many things right). Frankly, China is kicking our *** in just about everything, we just haven’t realized it yet.

That’s not hard to do when everyone is rowing in the same direction. The problem is the boat is a galley and all the oarsmen are changed to the floor and the oars itself.

And then when these countries need more energy to power them, China will also be who they turn too. We’ve wasted too much time fighting stupid wars and with each other - we weren’t paying attention while they set up themselves up to dominate the next century.

I asked earlier but nobody answered me.

Until electricity is fully made without fossil fuels, we’re still a player.

@mdk02 is just a faster texter.

 

[RUDiddy777]

Thank you for agreeing with both my points. I know that was hard for you.

I’ll agree when you’re right and call you out when you’re wrong. You’re right about continued investment - but that’s not going to solve the existing and worsening problem of lack of power generation and HV transmission. In the short term, the only practical solution is rapidly increasing solar and wind capacity, since they are quickest to market. Modular nuclear is not production ready (still absolutely critical long term, but not something you rush). Nat gas have a 5 year lead time on turbine production and you’ll still need more pipelines and transmission infrastructure.

As odd as it sounds on the surface, deploying data centers in space is a serious solution that should be prioritized.

 

[RUDiddy777]

So the future is coal?

China is absolutely dominating renewable energy production (and their supply chains). They deploy more renewable energy annually than the rest of the world combined. They spend as much annually on renewable energy deployment as we do on the military (imagine the economic implications of them basically having unlimited free energy running plants/factories/drones).

They run supercritical coal plants - which burns as clean as nat gas… and they’re not far away from ramping that down. A lot of their focus on coal is pragmatic, they have a lot domestically and they need to put people to work. Coal isn’t their future at all.

 

[RUDiddy777]

That’s not hard to do when everyone is rowing in the same direction. The problem is the boat is a galley and all the oarsmen are changed to the floor and the oars itself.

I asked earlier but nobody answered me.

Until electricity is fully made without fossil fuels, we’re still a player.

@mdk02 is just a faster texter.

We’re not going to turn into a failed state overnight .

Not sure what you mean by a player (not being an ***), assuming your speaking to geopolitical influence and exports - much of the developing world will leapfrog the fossil fuel era and go straight to renewables. It doesn’t make sense for countries to invest in that infrastructure. We’ve lost the battle in solar panel production. We’re light years behind on battery and rare earth processing. And we’re a bit behind on BEV and PHEV production. We need to get serious or we’re going to be producing things no one else wants, at prices no one wants to pay.

 

[mdk02]

China is absolutely dominating renewable energy production (and their supply chains). They deploy more renewable energy annually than the rest of the world combined. They spend as much annually on renewable energy deployment as we do on the military (imagine the economic implications of them basically having unlimited free energy running plants/factories/drones).

They run supercritical coal plants - which burns as clean as nat gas… and they’re not far away from ramping that down. A lot of their focus on coal is pragmatic, they have a lot domestically and they need to put people to work. Coal isn’t their future at all.

If coal isn't their future then why are they building more plants? Their useful lives are a lot longer than 5-10 years.

If their plants run as clean as natural gas then why aren't we building them?

 

[MADHAT1]

And they continue to build coal fired generating plants to provide the electricity for those vehicles. Not quite the technological leaders you portray them as

you forget "but the technology needed to make them the best option isn't there yet." part of my message.
So as they work on EV technology they are using old methods while it's being developed.
Not abandoning either, but using what's available now to help the EV evolve into thee future of transportation .
When it comes to energy sources, right now, what you implied is accurate,
China's energy mix is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, especially coal (around 56-62% of consumption), but is rapidly shifting towards renewables, with low-carbon sources providing nearly 40% of electricity, driven by massive solar and wind growth, alongside significant hydropower and nuclear power, aiming for peak emissions by 2030 .
A case of using the old, but preparing for the new while doing so.

 

[e5fdny]

We’re not going to turn into a failed state overnight .

Not sure what you mean by a player (not being an ***), assuming your speaking to geopolitical influence and exports - much of the developing world will leapfrog the fossil fuel era and go straight to renewables. It doesn’t make sense for countries to invest in that infrastructure. We’ve lost the battle in solar panel production. We’re light years behind on battery and rare earth processing. And we’re a bit behind on BEV and PHEV production. We need to get serious or we’re going to be producing things no one else wants, at prices no one wants to pay.

Remember those wars you were talking about earlier?

Hoping it doesn’t come to it but as I said earlier, those playas ain’t going down without a fight.

 

[RUDiddy777]

Remember those wars you were talking about earlier?

Hoping it doesn’t come to it but as I said earlier, those playas ain’t going down without a fight.

If you’re talking about a direct war with China, I just hope it never comes to that. China has been playing the long game, we’ve been trying to eat the pieces on the board.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

You need to do a little more homework. The most significant driver of that was the closure of Oyster Creek nuclear and 5 coal plants - and those were underway well before Murphy took office. Those were economic decisions, not political ones - they couldn’t compete with the abundance of natural gas in the Marcellus. Nat gas has been killing coal nationally since like 2012. Solar didn’t become a serious option until like 2019, 2020 when it became to cheap to ignore.

Renewables are generally funded by tax credits, both the ITC and PTC, not taxpayer handouts.

Again, the increase in costs are the result of underinvestment in infrastructure (our grid is really old) and rapid increases in demand for data centers, power prices and demand were largely flat until early 2023 when Gen AIs emergence changed everything. DCs pay a lower rate for power than residential consumers. The costs of capacity market auctions is also a cost borne by consumers, and there have been massive increases in capacity costs in PJM over the last couple of years. It costs a lot of money to keep old coal plants around in case we need them.

In short, this situation would be far worse without low cost renewables, which have offset some of the 5 GW capacity that was lost from nuclear and coal generation. We should be accelerating their deployment - not cancelling nearly complete projects. In fact, those of us who switched to residential rooftop a while ago are doing well.

And Murphy bet everything on windmills, fighting Nat Gas pipelines for 8 years.
Governor Murphy’s Green New Deal Exacerbates NJ Energy Crisis | RealClearEnergy

 

[RUDiddy777]

And Murphy bet everything on windmills, fighting Nat Gas pipelines for 8 years.
Governor Murphy’s Green New Deal Exacerbates NJ Energy Crisis | RealClearEnergy

go back to the CE board rubntugmachine