OT: Minor to Moderate (2-4?) Snowfall Likely Sat morning (2/17); will be <32F, so expect slick roads

Joey Bags

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Sep 21, 2019
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Holy crap! Dozed off at midnight with light snow having just started and woke up at 1 am to deathband snow! We havre 2" otg as of 1.15 am which is incredible!...spectacular huge dendrites... ratios must be at least 15.1. 30F. Will try to post a short video but only have my phone (laptop being repaired).

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachme...9b7bddfd3729eee38db3ae2999993a43508d090c836d&
A little confused, the snow here is very wet and clumpy and sticking to anything and everything. Not what you would expect with high ratio snow. I suspect that insane band of frontogenesis had something to do with it, we were getting dinner plate flakes under that deathband.

Numbers I know you’re a sun angle guru, so here’s a first. Picked up 4” in an hour and ten minutes on the snowboard and didn’t stick to the roads. I’ve now seen everything.
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
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4" otg as of 1.45 pm so we're at 4"/hr rates the last 30 min which is close to the most I've ever seen. If this somehow keeps up even at "just" 1-2"/hr for a few hours we'll get 8" or more.
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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A little confused, the snow here is very wet and clumpy and sticking to anything and everything. Not what you would expect with high ratio snow. I suspect that insane band of frontogenesis had something to do with it, we were getting dinner plate flakes under that deathband.

Numbers I know you’re a sun angle guru, so here’s a first. Picked up 4” in an hour and ten minutes on the snowboard and didn’t stick to the roads. I’ve now seen everything.
Crazy... we have full chives of all surfaces and its very light and fluffy... fud my video link work? Where are you again?
 

RU848789

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If I ever have to do another storm from my phone again I might pull the rest of my hair out. This completely sucks compared to my laptop.
 

RUChoppin

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Dec 1, 2006
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7" right now in western Hillsborough, and still coming down. Stayed up late waiting for a friend to arrive from NC, who thankfully just arrived safe.
 
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RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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As of 2.15, 5.5" otg so 3"/hr rate last 30 minutes. This is a once in 10 year deformation snow band. It's insanely gorgeous out there... this is almost like lake effect snow. NWS just put out a warning for Middlesex for 4-6" more snow after 2 am and for Somerset, Mercer and Hunterdon for 3-5" more snow after 2 am. That means we could hit 10" here. This reminds me of that incredible inverted trough band of 10" they got at an Eagles game several years ago.
 

Joey Bags

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Sep 21, 2019
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As of 2.15, 5.5" otg so 3"/hr rate last 30 minutes. This is a once in 10 year deformation snow band. It's insanely gorgeous out there... this is almost like lake effect snow. NWS just put out a warning for Middlesex for 4-6" more snow after 2 am and for Somerset, Mercer and Hunterdon for 3-5" more snow after 2 am. That means we could hit 10" here. This reminds me of that incredible inverted trough band of 10" they got at an Eagles game several years ago.
Ha that eagles game event in 2013 or 2014 is exactly what I was thinking of as well. That was an even narrower band IIRC.

I’m in Ringoes, as of 3AM we are at 7.7” with SN+ continuing. Gonna make a run at 10, absolutely nuts.
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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As of 2.45 am we had 6.5" otg so then I shoveled because gorgeous and now as of 3.15 am we have 7.25" so "only" 1.75" last hour... looking at the radar I think 10" is possible.



 
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Sweet Pea's Corner

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Sep 10, 2001
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Just measure the driveway and road, These were salted from last storm and I saw it didnt stick at first. 5 inches on road 10 inches on my truck hood. Very fluffy.
 

Joey Bags

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Sep 21, 2019
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10” here as of 5AM and still going but backend coming quick.

Classic high-end bust, something we haven’t had in a while.
 
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bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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Per radar looks like heaviest bands have dissipated and moving towards coast and much much lighter returns now in most of Jersey with back edge closing in
 

Joey Bags

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Everyone should be fired for this. For that sake I can go on tv and make a forcast.
This is an extremely rare type of setup/event and nearly impossible to predict these totals. If someone did they deserve a promotion. 4-6 was the top end estimate by all model guidance, this was almost like a lake effect type of band intensity.
 
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bac2therac

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This is an extremely rare type of setup/event and nearly impossible to predict these totals. If someone did they deserve a promotion. 4-6 was the top end estimate by all model guidance, this was almost like a lake effect type of band intensity.

Blow the models up
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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it's beginning to dawn on me that this may have been a once in a lifetime event.... it's just been incredible for 5+ hours and still going for another 15 min I'd guess. We might hit a foot a bit over my 3.5" prediction lol.
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
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This is an extremely rare type of setup/event and nearly impossible to predict these totals. If someone did they deserve a promotion. 4-6 was the top end estimate by all model guidance, this was almost like a lake effect type of band intensity.
Yeah there's no way on this planet that anyone could've predicted such a mesoscale event...I compared it to LES earlier also. And some similarities to training summer tstorms in how localized it was.
 

Plum Street

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Jun 21, 2009
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it's beginning to dawn on me that this may have been a once in a lifetime event.... it's just been incredible for 5+ hours and still going for another 15 min I'd guess. We might hit a foot a bit over my 3.5" prediction lol.
How much are we getting here in Union/middldesex ? Is it stopping soon ?
At least it’s Saturday
 

Sweet Pea's Corner

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it's beginning to dawn on me that this may have been a once in a lifetime event.... it's just been incredible for 5+ hours and still going for another 15 min I'd guess. We might hit a foot a bit over my 3.5" prediction lol.
You busted sir. Can't wait to see what TK says
 
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bac2therac

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Just measured. 11.75 for me. Don't think I will make it to a foot but we will see. Then I literally blew the snow away off my deck railing. Cleared all 12" with the wind in my lungs.

Still some showery stuff in PA to move through but breaking up