OT: Minor to Moderate (2-4?) Snowfall Likely Sat morning (2/17); will be <32F, so expect slick roads
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Two storms in a row where the forecast crapped the bed at the shore. Meteorology is junk science, if it is even considered science.
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Absolutely
Yeah, around here everything is clear with maybe an 1/2 to an inch on cars.
My snowblower is whimpering in the corner of the garage. I covered it with more crap to shut it up and make it feel useful.
Ha ha, sometimes it seems like they're rushing to plow the snow before it melts (trying to be ironic)...
To be fair, model-produced snow total clown maps have ruined the field. It's just garbage algos and the weenies and news agencies latch on to it, with social media providing the amplifier effect.
I maintain that it was easier to forecast snowfall amounts in the 2000s when the resolution was lower in the models. Some of the short range convection-solving models are useful though and can help with identifying mesoscale banding. Plus there is a huge hobbyist community now who have no idea how to properly forecast.
But as I mentioned in an earlier post, last night's event was a real rarity and not something that could have been easily forecasted. We knew there was going to be banding, and QPF/frontogenesis did indicate intense banding with support for 4-6".
Did some towns really get 10 inches?
My bro in Passaic county said he didn’t have to shovel
Here in Flemington got 10 or 11 but already starting to go down even with flurries continuing at times. I'm even going to wait another few hours to shovel for more melting.
Per C-N online:
Somerset County
Somerset County
- Belle Mead: 6.0 inches as of 8:16 a.m.
- Bernards: 4.0 inches as of 7:30 a.m.
- Blackwells Mills: 8.0 inches as of 7 a.m.
- Bridgewater: 12 inches as of 7 a.m.
- Flagtown: 11.0 inches as of 6:21 a.m.
- Franklin (Somerset): 10.4 inches as of 9 a.m.
- Green Brook: 9.0 inches as of 8 a.m.
- Hillsborough: 11.0 inches as of 6:47 a.m.
- Manville: 11.0 inches as of 6:13 a.m.
- Middlebush: 7.0 inches as of 2:51 a.m.
- North Plainfield: 7.1 inches as of 5:13 a.m.
- Somerville: 9.9 inches as of 8:10 a.m.
- Warren: 6.0 inches as of 7:58 a.m.
- Watchung: 6.0 inches as of 8 a.m.
- Bartles Corners: 8.0 inches as of 2:59 a.m.
- Clinton Township: 4.0 inches as of 8 a.m.
- Cloverhill: 8.2 inches as of 7 a.m.
- Flemington: 11.6 inches as of 8 a.m.
- Franklin Township (Hunterdon): 12.8 as of 7 a.m.
- Frenchtown: 13.0 inches as of 7 a.m.
- Holland Township: 13.0 inches as of 3:50 a.m.
- Lebanon: 10.0 inches as of 7 a.m.
- Pittstown: 10.5 inches as of 7:30 a.m.
- Raritan Township: 8.0 inches as of 2:30 a.m.
- Readington Township: 12.0 inches as of 5:16 a.m.
- Rosemont: 9.0 inches as of 5:15 a.m.
- Stanton: 12.0 inches as of 7 a.m.
- Stockton: 8.5 inches as of 7 a.m.
- West Amwell: 9.5 inches as of 7:42 a.m.
- Whitehouse Station: 10.0 inches as of 7 a.m.
- Carteret: 8.8 inches as of 6:10 a.m.
- East Brunswick: 8.8 inches as of 7 a.m.
- Edison: 10.1 inches as of 7:33 a.m.
- Hopelawn: 8.5 inches as of 5:30 a.m.
- Kendall Park: 7.3 inches as of 3:20 a.m.
- Metuchen: 10.9 inches as of 6:50 a.m.
- Middlesex: 8.0 inches as of 5:45 a.m.
- Milltown: 11.0 inches as of 7 a.m.
- New Brunswick: 11.3 inches as of 6:03 a.m.
- North Brunswick: 11.3 inches as of 7:25 a.m.
- Old Bridge: 10.0 inches as of 7 a.m.
- Sayreville: 6.0 inches as of 2:15 a.m.
- South Amboy: 9.0 inches as of 6:56 a.m.
- South Plainfield: 5.0 inches as of 2:45 a.m.
- South River: 9.2 inches as of 5:12 a.m.
- Spotswood: 5.5 inches as of 7:37 a.m.
- Woodbridge: 8.2 inches as of 6 a.m.
10 inches but hard surfaces less than half and quickly shrinking
Big crowds at Hillsboro Deli early this morning before the shrinkage.
Alotta snow in Central jersey. We got a nice little couple inches in Newark. It was snowing hard last night.
I think we got more snow here in Cranford than on Tuesday. But it's heavier and melting fast.
See.
This is the main example I’ve used to sell you on the idea of the new event=new thread.
It is a pain in the you know what (even when you change the thread title) to follow along.
What town and county are using amateur forecasts from a free college football message board to make operations decisions?
Nothing to write home about.
Not even close to that here.
I think we got more but not that much more.
Asphalt roads and driveways were all clear.
Concrete driveways and sidewalks clear as well.
Neither surfaces were ever covered.
Although, I think my dog is as happy as @RU848789 …
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I enjoyed it all night including making a couple of snow angels, but an all nighter after a week of averaging 3-4 hrs of sleep would've been too much lol.
I did wake up for a few around 9.30 am and we had about another 1/4" that had fallen sometime after 8 am, so my final total is 11.25"... also saw that someone else in Metuchen has reported 10.9" around 7 am when I had 11" and plenty of 10-12" reports from NB, edison, etc.
I'm pretty sure this is the biggest positive bust I can remember, at least in my 31 years in Metuchen. Jan 1987 is probably the other biggest +bust I can recall. Cue the Salma Hayak bust GIFs. I will have snow ratio data in a few hours (melting takes awhile).
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Wrong but not the thread for it. All I will say though is forecasts are as accurate now at 5 days as they used to be at 2-3 days 25 years ago, but I don't know if modeling will ever get mesoscale events like this snow band right (or summer tstorms) due to the unpredictability of the incredible vertical velocity gradients involved in such setups.
The following part isn't bad (but is a bit harder) but trying to figure out how to download and cut / paste graphics and pics was incredibly frustrating as it just doesn't work easily like it does on my laptop and navigating among a dozen or more sources is a royal PITA, as is simply trying to type fast and accurately.See.
This is the main example I’ve used to sell you on the idea of the new event=new thread.
It is a pain in the you know what (even when you change the thread title) to follow along.
I didn't follow that one closely as I was a junior neck deep in thermo, PDEs and 2 women at that time, but that is still my favorite storm of all time as friends of mine were in the band that still played that night at the Busch pub which was still open as another friend was manager there and the staff were all on campus. Wild wild night.
Says you (and ONLY you - lol)
We’re glad you’re happy as your giddiness come thru in your posts. Good for you.
Two mesoscale events with whiffs in one week will sour a person on meteorology.
Remember in grade school watching one of those films on predicting the weather, where somewhere down south a big hurricane was predicted to his some locale, and at the last minute, after the gentleman in the video had just finished boarding his windows, heard the radio say that the hurricane would miss their locale. He through his hammer at the radio.
Better luck next time, with the guesstimate on snow totals.
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Whoa, whoa, whoa!
Forget the weather stuff as they say on tMB…
Go on with the bold.
* I should say so. Wow.
So glad I took mine out of the box. I still refuse to put gas in it, just to drain it out in two months. I bought an $1800.00 workshop ornament; it's going on almost 2 yrs. now. I'm about to chalk it up to one of my worst purchases ever.My snowblower is whimpering in the corner of the garage. I covered it with more crap to shut it up and make it feel useful.
I'm currently on the border Beach area of NC-SC but my security cameras are showing decent amount of light fluffy snow.
Wait till the maps come out showing the incredible gradients... for example it went from 12" in Bridgewater to 4" in Bernard's over just 6 miles. No model in the world will ever be able to predict that... it was very similar to a lassie effect snow band.