OT: Moderate to Significant Snowfall Incoming for Late Sat through Sunday Morning (12/14)
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Good discussion by the NWS. I bolded the snowfall discussion.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
303 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Confidence continues to increase that a snow event that will
impact the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. A clipper
system will ride along the base of a closed upper low, moving
across the Ohio River Valley during the day Saturday and into
the Mid Atlantic states Saturday night before moving offshore
Sunday. As this clipper system arrives across the region, the
closed upper low will begin to reopen as an amplified trough,
providing baroclinic forcing that will assist in the
strengthening of a weak clipper system into more of a broad
offshore low. As it strengthens, guidance shows a zone of
strengthening 700-850mb frontogenesis (FGEN) developing across
the southern half of the region as snow begins Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Forecast soundings plentiful cold air
through the column that is well saturated aloft with plentiful
moisture within the dendritic growth region. All of this would
point to a zone of potentially some increased snowfall intensity
for a time early Sunday morning with snowfall rates potentially
as high as 1" per hour at times. There still remains some
potential on the southern fringe of the precipitation shield
that the precipitation starts as some light rain or a mix of
rain/snow before changing to all snow. Lows Saturday night will
fall squarely into the 20s, supporting this all-snow event. The
model consensus puts the axis of the maximum precipitation
amounts very close to the I-95 corridor, favoring areas just
south and east. Overall, a widespread 2-4 inches of snow are
expected across the Highlands from northern NJ into southeastern
PA, the I-95 corridor, and across the coastal plain into the
central Delmarva Peninsula and the rest of southern NJ,
including the Jersey Shore. Given the increasing potential for
mesoscale FGEN snow bands, there is a potential for a
concentrated are of 4-5 inches of snowfall somewhere near the
I-95 corridor and immediately south and east with up to 20-30%
chance for for a handful of reports over 5 inches in that
specific area. At this time, we have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for much of the forecast area. Areas further north and
west, including the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and extreme
northwestern NJ currently do not have an advisory as they are
expecting around 1-2 inches when the criteria for an advisory is
3 inches or greater. Snowfall is expected to begin during the
late evening hours Saturday night and continue overnight into
Sunday morning, tapering off throughout the morning and moving
offshore by the afternoon. The heaviest snowfall rates look to
occur during the pre-dawn hours early Sunday morning through
mid-morning.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
303 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Confidence continues to increase that a snow event that will
impact the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. A clipper
system will ride along the base of a closed upper low, moving
across the Ohio River Valley during the day Saturday and into
the Mid Atlantic states Saturday night before moving offshore
Sunday. As this clipper system arrives across the region, the
closed upper low will begin to reopen as an amplified trough,
providing baroclinic forcing that will assist in the
strengthening of a weak clipper system into more of a broad
offshore low. As it strengthens, guidance shows a zone of
strengthening 700-850mb frontogenesis (FGEN) developing across
the southern half of the region as snow begins Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Forecast soundings plentiful cold air
through the column that is well saturated aloft with plentiful
moisture within the dendritic growth region. All of this would
point to a zone of potentially some increased snowfall intensity
for a time early Sunday morning with snowfall rates potentially
as high as 1" per hour at times. There still remains some
potential on the southern fringe of the precipitation shield
that the precipitation starts as some light rain or a mix of
rain/snow before changing to all snow. Lows Saturday night will
fall squarely into the 20s, supporting this all-snow event. The
model consensus puts the axis of the maximum precipitation
amounts very close to the I-95 corridor, favoring areas just
south and east. Overall, a widespread 2-4 inches of snow are
expected across the Highlands from northern NJ into southeastern
PA, the I-95 corridor, and across the coastal plain into the
central Delmarva Peninsula and the rest of southern NJ,
including the Jersey Shore. Given the increasing potential for
mesoscale FGEN snow bands, there is a potential for a
concentrated are of 4-5 inches of snowfall somewhere near the
I-95 corridor and immediately south and east with up to 20-30%
chance for for a handful of reports over 5 inches in that
specific area. At this time, we have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for much of the forecast area. Areas further north and
west, including the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and extreme
northwestern NJ currently do not have an advisory as they are
expecting around 1-2 inches when the criteria for an advisory is
3 inches or greater. Snowfall is expected to begin during the
late evening hours Saturday night and continue overnight into
Sunday morning, tapering off throughout the morning and moving
offshore by the afternoon. The heaviest snowfall rates look to
occur during the pre-dawn hours early Sunday morning through
mid-morning.
2-3 inches seems about right for most of nj north of trenton with some dollops of 4-5 to the south. Some in way north jersey could be disappointed if there is too much dry air and low snow growth and on the flip side some could be angry that their snowfall forecast overperformed somewhere in central jersey
its going to be powdery so it should be easily removed. Its going to end in the morning...like 8-10am so there is really no excuse for not dealing with it in the afternoon. Its going to be in the teens Sunday night and not get above freezing on Monday so yeah things will crust over.
of course by Thursday its going to hit 50 or above as we have a relative mild stretch starting from Wednesday through early next week.
I think you have a good shot at 2-3" and maybe even 4" if you get the heavier rates after the change to snow.
It's going to be below 32F all day for most and with the low sun angle not that much will melt, so this should not freeze up as a dense icepack as can happen with wet snows with above 32F temps during the day. But it's always easier to shovel when the snow is done, by 9 am for most.
Good news, although I like winter, because I have not gotten my runs in for the past couple of weeks...
Almost every model showed increased snowfall at 0Z for almost everyone near/along 95 from DC to NYC and even NW of 95 and the NBM (model blend) shows NYC with >3" for the first time (3.1") and the NWS has responded with upping their snowfall map across the board for most. The NWS-Philly increased their advisories to 3-5" for the counties along the 95 corridor from Wilmington to Philly to Woodbridge and SE of there to the coast and added the Lehigh Valley, Warren and Morris to the advisory list for 2-4" of snow (same 2-4" forecast for Somerset, Hunterdon and western Chester/Montco/Bucks). And where mesoscale banding occurs (likely somewhere in the 3-5" region between 95 and the coast, but impossible to predict in advance), there could be lollipops of 5-7".
The NWS-NYC also expanded advisories northward with advisories for 2-4" for NENJ from Union to Bergen, for NYC, southern Westchester and Nassau, while they're predicting 3-5" for Suffolk County. Here is the updated NWS map and the NWS map of advisories (counties in blue). We're within 18 hours of the start of the event now, so it's pretty unlikely we're going to see any major changes from here on out, i.e., it would be a surprise to see accumulation forecasts change more than 1" for any specific areas and it would be a monumental surprise (and bust) for the 3-5" areas to see <2" or the 2-4" areas to see <1". Start time is 10-11 pm later today and the snow should be over by 7-10 am Sunday from W to E.
With temps below 32F for everyone (even the coast after starting as some rain for a bit, but changing to snow as temps drop), the snow will accumulate easily on all untreated surfaces and driving could be pretty treatcherous before sunrise in moderate to heavy snow that might even accumulate on some treated surfaces/highways. And temps will stay below 32F through Wednesday morning, but a big warm-up is in the cards late next week/weekend.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
The NWS-NYC also expanded advisories northward with advisories for 2-4" for NENJ from Union to Bergen, for NYC, southern Westchester and Nassau, while they're predicting 3-5" for Suffolk County. Here is the updated NWS map and the NWS map of advisories (counties in blue). We're within 18 hours of the start of the event now, so it's pretty unlikely we're going to see any major changes from here on out, i.e., it would be a surprise to see accumulation forecasts change more than 1" for any specific areas and it would be a monumental surprise (and bust) for the 3-5" areas to see <2" or the 2-4" areas to see <1". Start time is 10-11 pm later today and the snow should be over by 7-10 am Sunday from W to E.
With temps below 32F for everyone (even the coast after starting as some rain for a bit, but changing to snow as temps drop), the snow will accumulate easily on all untreated surfaces and driving could be pretty treatcherous before sunrise in moderate to heavy snow that might even accumulate on some treated surfaces/highways. And temps will stay below 32F through Wednesday morning, but a big warm-up is in the cards late next week/weekend.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
No chance of snow here in Key West. Make sure it’s gone when I come back next week please
Eyewitness news this morning had 1-3 for north and central jersey and best chance for 3+ south.
They will very likely be wrong, as most forecasts I've seen show at least 2-4" or 3-5" for most of CNJ, like the NWS has, so I expect them to up their snowfall forecast to at least 2-4", especially for CNJ up to about 78. Models this morning continue to show snowfall increases and I think there's a decent chance we're going to see the NWS increase snowfall forecasts again if the 12Z runs coming up soon continue to show these increased amounts - the 12Z runs will be done in 2-3 hours. Any further increases would likely lead to some warnings for 5" or so for SEPA/SNJ (where the warning criterion is 5", south of 276/195, i.e., for counties south of Mercer/Monmouth), but we're unlikely to see warnings north of that line where the criterion is 6" (but could still see forecasts of 4-6" for Mercer/Monmouth and 3-5" north of there up to 78, for example); many met experts on the forums expect to see further forecast increases and warnings for SEPA/SNJ. Enjoy the day folks, as I'll be largely off the grid, playing disc golf and then going to the RU-SHU hoops tailgate and game.
I was wondering why the discrepancy because I think you all have more faith in the channel 7 meteorologists than others.
8 to 10 possible if it's heavy and lollipops per fellow snowplowers. They say looking for a long day tomorrow for Hillsborough Skillman Sourlands
It wasn't always that way. He totally distrusted Amy Freeze. Dani Beckstrom is now the weather ace.
Oh, would not have guessed that. Watched all 3 local forecasts, and ithe consensus seems rain starting around 9 pm changeover to snow around 11 to midnight.
Almost every other media source has at least 2-4" and many have 3-5" for most of CNJ, so Channel 7 is an outlier at 1-3" for most of CNJ - do you think I only look at the NWS?
Well I got the snow blower started just in case. Anything less than 4" I usually just shovel as it's easier IMO. I can't remember that last time I actually used the snow blower. I think it's been 4 years since I needed it. According to the "snow maps" Mercer is projected to be in the sweet spot. We shall see
Looks like the upped the totals again
Looks like the upped the totals again
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Same here. Don't recall setting up the snow blower last 2 years. Started right up today and in position if needed.Well I got the snow blower started just in case. Anything less than 4" I usually just shovel as it's easier IMO. I can't remember that last time I actually used the snow blower. I think it's been 4 years since I needed it. According to the "snow maps" Mercer is projected to be in the sweet spot. We shall see
Looks like the upped the totals again
Dani is worse than Amy was. Lee and Jeff Smith are the only ones worth watching on Ch 7 (for accuracy, lol).
Yes I’ve seen you guys mention Lee and Jeff as the good ones and that’s why I only go to channel 7 now for weather lol. If those two are good wouldn’t the rest be following suit with the same forecasts. It’s not like each weather person at the network is coming up with the his/her own forecast right.
Anyhow the models have continued to increase qpf over the past 24 hours...what seemed like a 2-3 inch snow is now like a 3-6 inch snow. A early test for modelling for the winter season
Only have a few minutes. NWS and most forecasters have upped snowfall amounts, since almost all of the models have upped snowfall amounts, especially from the Raritan to 78 and even up to 80, while amounts south of the Raritan remain pretty high. Warnings are up for 4-6", as expected, for SEPA/SNJ counties that border the Delaware River (counties in pink, where the warning criterion is 5"; north of 276/195 it's 6"). and advisories are up (counties in blue) for a general 3-5" for PA/NJ/NY counties N of 276/195 up to about 78 (which includes NENJ/NYC/LI) and for 2-4" north of 78 up to 80; only the Poconos don't have an advisory as they're predicted to get 1-3". Good NWS discussion below.
The updated snowfall map and advisories/warnings map are below, showing decent increases for most of CNJ/NNJ/NEPA/NYC/LI, but also showing small decreases for far SENJ (south of AC) due to more rain/mixing and the NWS briefing is linked below, also. Someone is going to likely get 6-8" from this storm where the best bands set up - maybe along the DE in SEPA/SNJ or near 195 or even up to the Raritan - and areas north of the best banding often get less snow than expected due to subsidence. We need to wait until the storm is underway to see where the best mesoxcale banding is.
Driving conditions are likely to be treacherous after 10-11 pm when accumulating snow is likely to start and even treated major roads might become snow-covered due to heavy rates in places. So be safe out there, but try to get out and enjoy it a bit too. And when I posted my guesstimate for my house of 4" yesterday when the NWS had me at 3.3", I was being bullish - and now the NWS has me at 4.7", lol. So now I have to up mine to 5.0", as I still think the storm will overperform a bit.
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
348 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025
A potent closed upper-low currently centered just to the north of
Lake Superior will shift southeastward across southern Ontario by
Sunday morning, gradually opening into a positively tilted upper-
trough during the day Sunday as it shifts eastward and approaches
the coast. Significant height falls aloft will begin this evening as
cyclonic flow overspreads the area. At the surface, weak low
pressure will shift eastward across portions of Ontario and into
Quebec tonight, with a potent arctic front passing through the
region by early Sunday. Additional weak surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The low pressure will track
quickly out to sea during the day on Sunday.
Ahead of the approaching trough, synoptic-scale ascent will
overspread the region, and precipitation could begin across western
portions of the forecast area by mid-evening. With temperatures
having warmed well into the 40s today, if precipitation does move in
during the evening hours it will likely be light rain or a rain/snow
mix. Tonight, as the column cools, precipitation should change to
all snow. This appears likely to occur by midnight near and
northwest of I-95, with the rain-snow line progressing southeastward
from there through the overnight hours.
Precipitation intensity looks to maximize during the pre-dawn hours
Sunday, and right now it appears that the heaviest snow will be near
the I-95 corridor. In this region, forecast soundings indicate
backing winds in the lowest levels, with substantial veering above
850 mb. Given the veering winds aloft which indicates warm air
advection and strong vertical motion, as well as a deep and
saturated DGZ, a period of heavy snow is expected. In addition,
model guidance continues to suggest a zone of frontogenetical forcing
in this vicinity. FGEN banding is likely to occur, and snowfall
rates upwards of 1 inch per hour are a reasonable expectation within
this zone. While the exact area in which this banding sets up is
still somewhat uncertain, confidence has increased that it will be
across portions of southeastern PA into central and southern
portions of NJ. Even though the period of heaviest snowfall is not
expected to last more than a few hours, it will not take long for
substantial snow accumulation to occur with these conditions. As a
result, confidence in warning criteria snow has increased, and a
Winter Storm Warning has been issued for portions of southeastern PA
and southern NJ, including the Philadelphia metro. Here, snow
accumulation of 4-5" is expected, and locally higher amounts cannot
be ruled out.
Across much of northern NJ, snow accumulations appear likely to fall
in the 3-5" range. Confidence is a little lower across the Delmarva
(especially southern portions of DE and the Eastern Shore of
Maryland), as the window of all snow will be the shortest. Still,
general accumulations of 1-3" are expected in these areas. Winter
Weather Advisories remain in effect for these locations.
For the Poconos, dry air will work its way in faster, but 1-3" of
accumulation is still expected. With advisory thresholds across
these areas of 3", have elected not to issue any this cycle, though
if amounts trend up it is possible that advisory issuance could be
needed in future updates.
,
Could this be the one, after 793 days of the worst purchase of my entire life. Ariens does make an awesome coat rack, you should all get one for Christmas. A little on the pricy side, but a great accessory for your garage.
Anyone here have a POV on how this weather will impact the Giants game tomorrow from a tailgate perspective?
A big group (some 25 people, 6-8 cars) are going to celebrate my brothers 40th tomorrow. Given the weather, some are not going in and instead watching at the mall.
We were originally going to park in lot J but given how far that is from the mall, we’re thinking of pivoting to lot D, right next to the mall and marginally closer to the stadium.
So questions;
- anyone familiar with lot D; any insights for tailgating?
-given the weather, do we think the lots will still be ‘full’, or more specifically, do you think we’ll have an issue getting spaces close/together provided we get to the lot by 10am?
I know that’s LATE for a usual game but they’re calling for 4-6 inches of snow, tickets are going for as low as $9, and both teams are obviously/unfortunately looking ahead to next season already.
A big group (some 25 people, 6-8 cars) are going to celebrate my brothers 40th tomorrow. Given the weather, some are not going in and instead watching at the mall.
We were originally going to park in lot J but given how far that is from the mall, we’re thinking of pivoting to lot D, right next to the mall and marginally closer to the stadium.
So questions;
- anyone familiar with lot D; any insights for tailgating?
-given the weather, do we think the lots will still be ‘full’, or more specifically, do you think we’ll have an issue getting spaces close/together provided we get to the lot by 10am?
I know that’s LATE for a usual game but they’re calling for 4-6 inches of snow, tickets are going for as low as $9, and both teams are obviously/unfortunately looking ahead to next season already.
36 here so i imagine down the shore might start as wet initially before temps drop
Thank for adding “for accuracy.” I was beginning to think you were experiencing diminishing vision in your retirement.
