OT: RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES FOR MOST

[RCTrooper]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Thanks for the update #s and I prefer to get worst case projections anyway. Case in point, Bac and others downplayed Sunday's storm and drove into NYC in the afternoon, expecting 1-2 inches. By 6 pm there was 5 inches on the roads and I was grumbling all the way home during a drive that took an extra 45 minutes.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES


um I didn't downplay anything...I said 1-4 for this area and that's what we got..who was downplaying..show me proof...most of CJ got 2-3 inches....

I think its pretty stupid to drive into NYC during a snow event calling for 1-4 inches while its still snowing and ice is expected...that's not on me...learn to read next and don't blame me bud

 

[RU1977]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES


Still at work here in Wayne at 6:30 - supposed to leave at 5. Wife just got home, took her 2 hrs for a 1/2 hr normal drive. She said to stay here. Roads are horrible. Google maps traffic shows Rt 46/80/3 all red.

Any good time to leave? Was hoping traffic would thin out by now......
This post was edited on 3/3 7:14 PM by RU1977

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES


this frozen stuff is going to be going on for awhile especially up north so its not going to get better anytime soon in terms of iciness

 

[RUMcMahon]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Coiffi first call map has me smack in the 12+ range (Ocean/Monmouth). Seems high. Most of NJ in the 9" range .

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

yeah Cioffi is a snow lover that likes to go high....I think your area is the jackpot area for now and there could be lollipops of 12 inches but that sleet/rain potential for the first part may cut back. Most other forecasts have 6-10 for your area.

 

[RUMcMahon]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

agreed, Bac.

This post was edited on 3/3 7:10 PM by RUMcMahon

 

[gmorgan82]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

I am supposed to fly to Chicago Thursday at 8pm. What are the chances get out on Thurs?

 

[BigLou]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by RUMcMahon:
Coiffi first call map has me smack in the 12+ range (Ocean/Monmouth). Seems high. Most of NJ in the 9" range .

Didn't know our defensive back was a budding weatherman.

 

[ru109]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

About 2 inches or so in Ramsey and now sleet. Oh fun.

 

[Red Hysteria]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Took my 2 1/2 hours to get home to Clifton from Morris Plains. Every possible route on the GPS was red. Utter nightmare. The bald guy on Accuweather thinks the Wed night storm will be pushed further South with each model run. Anyone else think that?

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

It has now turned to just plain rain here in belle mead...nyc now 34...temps slowly rising

 

[DJ Spanky]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

This was definitely a drive home where I didn't have enough middle fingers!

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

I told you to stop for pancakes

 

[RULoyal]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by Red Hysteria:
Took my 2 1/2 hours to get home to Clifton from Morris Plains. Every possible route on the GPS was red. Utter nightmare. The bald guy on Accuweather thinks the Wed night storm will be pushed further South with each model run. Anyone else think that?

Normal 50 - 60 minute commute took 3 1/2 hours. Route 22 was 5 mph from Annandale to 287.

 

[knight82]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Bac, how does the Wednesday morning commute look for Middlesex county?

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES


its just raining now in my backyard and should be fine precip wise for people. Im looking out my window now and see the rain running off of a hard glaze in the parking lots and sidewalks. Its not like the temp will rise that much so its going to be tough melting all that stuff and scraping it out of the way. I would think main roads would be fine.

 

[RCTrooper]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by bac2therac:

um I didn't downplay anything...I said 1-4 for this area and that's what we got..who was downplaying..show me proof...most of CJ got 2-3 inches....

I think its pretty stupid to drive into NYC during a snow event calling for 1-4 inches while its still snowing and ice is expected...that's not on me...learn to read next and don't blame me bud

It was way more the 1-4 inches. Moreover; dude, please! In a large majority of snow discussions, you shout down everyone who posts a prediction on the high side of the range. You have a negative bias to snow storm totals. Thus you have less credibility than #s.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

I was out snowplowing with my brother...I had 2 inches...3 inches just north of us...we went when it changed to freezing rain....I dont know what to tell you...most in nj got 1-4.....nyc and Li got more...great bit thats not nj but in no way did I downplay anything...all observations were accurate. Your post was uncalled for and you have nothing to back it up

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES


Drove from Rahway to Piscataway, leaving at 6 pm and arriving at 7 pm, for what is usually a 25 min ride. Was 27F and sleeting heavily at the time. Roads were treacherous - even Route 1 was snow/sleet covered and slippery - averaged 25-30 mph and saw a few spinouts. Went in to the RU-MD hoops game (we lost, but played decently) and came out around 9:15 pm to freezing rain and 31F. Clearly had been ZR for awhile as there was about an 1/8" layer of ice on everything.

The drive back to Metuchen was pretty slick, although with traffic and temps at 31-32F things were starting to melt a bit. Temp hit 32F around 10 pm here in Metuchen. My driveway is an absolute sheet of ice. Guesstimating about an inch of sleet/snow (didn't measure when the sleet ended) - just saw the NWS reports with the Metuchen spotter (a pro met) eporting 1.2" of sleet and snow (his measurement was while I was at the game). I'm taking the advice I gave to a bunch of folks - not clearing the driveway/sidewalk, as temps should be in the mid/upper 30s by dawn and I hope the stuff on the paved surfaces will be mostly melted.

For Thursday, most folks still calling for 4-8" for NYC metro and 6-8, maybe up to 10" for Central NJ/SE PA and South Jersey. Still concerned about suppression and sleet mixing in a lot, but we'll just have to see.

Hey bac - saw you posting on the obs thread on American - did you not go to the final home game tonight at the RAC? We played our hearts out, but just came up short. If we just had another scorer on this team, I think we would've won several more games.

 

[mollie24]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

###s
Suggest you post a separate weather report for Lower Bucks County, south of the Burlington Bridge. Heard tomorrow's storm might miss there entirely.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Yes Rock and I missed the game...got bad around 5 when we were thinking about heading out

 

[BigEastPhil]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

I actually was in my car at about 4:45 in Jersey City and made it to the RAC at 6:45 which I was thrilled about and just walked in when the Seniors were being announced.

Roads were treacherous going to the RAC and was quite surprised how many people attended the game.

Fortunately the roads going home were wet - however my driveway in Freehold had about an inch of ice when I got home.

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by WhiteBus:
#s Yes. More than half those towns are upper bucks. Im south of the Burlington Bridge. At no time yesterday was the ground covered where I could not see grass. I live here. There wasn't jack of an accumulation of snow. There was more hail by far than snow. By 4:30 all rain.
Most of those towns are closer to Allentown than where I am at. And some at higher elevations.

So, you got zero snow/sleet and yet towns to your south and SW got 1.0-1.4" and obviously every town to your NW got at least an inch. That's almost impossible. Isn't it at least possible you got about an inch of snow/sleet, which wouldn't cover all the grass? An inch is really not that much and is within the 1-3" call. And like I said above you did not have hail, you had sleet, and sleet counts towards the snow total.

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 1.4 1200 AM 3/02 NWS OFFICE
WRIGHTSTOWN 1.0 700 AM 3/02 TRAINED SPOTTER
FLORENCE 1.0 208 PM 3/01 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
PHILADELPHIA CENTER 1.0 930 AM 3/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

So, I owe WhiteBus a partial apology and vice versa, I think. I posted on American asking for anyone in Bucks in the vicinity of Bristol/Croydon PA how much snow/sleet they got and amazingly, that area truly was in some weird hole, with several posters saying they got around 1/2-3/4" of combined snow and sleet. Less than an inch, so technically less than the 1-3" the NWS forecasted (just about the only area they missed on), but more than the zero snow (and snow includes snow and sleet, when measuring, although in fairness WB might not have known that) he claimed.

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

We have almost model consensus on 5-9" for NYC Metro for the Thursday storm and most of Central Jersey (except maybe those parts north of 78) would get a little more than that, maybe in the 6-12" range with the higher amounts near 195. GFS is the outlier at 3-5" for NYC Metro and the Euro is on the high side with close to a foot. Not a lock, but looking pretty good right now for a major snowstorm. Ag on American summarized the output nicely (I added in the Euro)...

21z Srefs: 5"-9"
0z Nam: 5"-9"
0z Rgem: 5"-9"
0z Gfs: 3"-5"
0z Navgem: 5"-9"
0z Ukmet: 5"-9"
0z Ggem: 5"-9"
0z Gefs: 5"-9"
0z Euro: 6-10"

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Rock and I are going out removing the ice...for those who have none it yet it looks like its going to be a brutal morning getting rid of it off sidewalks and driveways as virtually no melt of what icy sleet covered by freezing rain melted much last night

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Interesting the 6z gfs was south.. cuts amounts to 4-5 and less for nyc...lets hope its onto something

 

[RU1977]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES


Channel 4 news this morning says only 1-3 tomorrow for NYC, 6-9 in South Jersey? Correct?

 

[DJ Spanky]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Very strange weather pattern on the radar - a diagonal front, going southwest to northeast, with the rain (for now) moving along the edge of the front, which in itself appears to be barely moving east.

 

[RU1977]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES


I agree - pattern starts in texas and is flowing to here!!

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Well the nam was interesting...seemed to be more north with the part of the storm and more south with the 2nd part...could totals be cut...we'll see hiw the other 12z guidance rolls in

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

NAM snowfall map has weenies on suicide watch....verbatim 1-3 nyc...2-4 south to Trenton...3-6 south of that and sj...seems most would miss the 2nd wave tomorrow afternoon as it would go south and ours snow would bw over sunrise....gfs was drier its last two runs...if it and other models move towards the NAM the expect predicted amounts to be sliced...time will tell

 

[RUPete]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by bac2therac:
NAM snowfall map has weenies on suicide watch....verbatim 1-3 nyc...2-4 south to Trenton...3-6 south of that and sj...seems most would miss the 2nd wave tomorrow afternoon as it would go south and ours snow would bw over sunrise....gfs was drier its last two runs...if it and other models move towards the NAM the expect predicted amounts to be sliced...time will tell

I thought that the second wave would bring us snow until about noon, then be out of here. Would it be later than that if it arrives at all? It's interesting to see the NAM going in the opposite direction. I thought that model was always more aggressive with the precip and snow totals.

 

[Zak57]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES


What time is the snow/sleet/mix supposed to start tonight?

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Rgem was 4-6 but its been one of the higher models...gfs is 3-5....we shall see if nws lower amounts...probably wait til after euro and 18z nam...even if they do I think 3-6 is as low as they go with 4-8 further south

Its an interesting trend to watch on the models today

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by RU848789:


After about 1/2" of snow in Rahway this afternoon, it's sleet everywhere south of 78, now, as warm air is screaming in
at about 5000 feet up in the atmosphere, but it's dropped to the upper 20s at
the surface, so we have a few hours of sleet and freezing rain to go before the
entire column warms to above 32F by 9-11 pm (but not until 1-3 am from NYC on
northward). Conditions will be icy tonight until temps go above freezing.

If you live in Central Jersey or points south and you're lazy, don't shovel this evening - whatever is
on your driveway will melt by 6 am, as temps reach to about 35-37F by 6-7 am
tomorrow in Central Jersey and most of the area will reach 40F tomorrow. If you
live from 80 north, shovel, as temps may not get above 32F until 5-6 am and
highs will only be in the mid-30s.

By the way, winter storm watches are now up from the NWS in NYC (except far northern sections of the Hudson Valley and CT) for similar 4-8" of snow on Thursday, as for the NWS-Philly area. Still concerns over suppression (areas from NYC on northward may end up with less - hard to believe Philly to Woodbridge and south of there don't get 6" or more) and concerns over sleet on the SE side of the precip (near the shore, perhaps) keeping snowfall amounts down.

Still potential for 10" though, too - will be fascinating to see the outcome, as this is a truly unusual setup, with the southern branch of the jetstream screaming in moisture from the Pacific off of Mexico all the way up here (look at the water vapor loop), plus a component of Gulf moisture is present and we have that huge polar airmass oozing down from the north - not even really a classic "storm" per se - just impulses riding up along the jet and lots of precip falling, especially near where the cold and warm airmasses collide (often called the baroclinic zone).

As bac noted, weenie suicide warning has been posted for NYC, LI, NE NJ, Hudson Valley posters and folks in Central Jersey/SE PA/South Jersey are just under a weenie suicide watch, lol. Models coming in drier today so far. As I said yesterday and on American, I wasn't going to be confident until the 12Z runs today and after seeing the consensus we had at 0Z last night go south (literally, lol), it might be time for the NWS to back off at least a bit on snowfall forecasts and possibly even trim some of the warnings back to advisories (need high confidence in 6" or more for a warning vs. 3" or more for an advisory for Central/North Jersey/NYC/LI). Looking like more of a 3-6" event for most (even towards Philly perhaps, if this "two wave" scenario plays out), which is still a significant storm, but not a major one. If anyone is curious, below is what I wrote on American yesterday afternoon, but didn't post here (limited time). Got meetings and work most of the day, so probably won't check in on the weather much until early evening.

I won't feel confident in getting 6" or more until 12Z tomorrow. I know the setup is different, but I just remember those March "snowstorms" last year that were suppressed by the polar vortex in the last 24-36 hours before the event, turning 3-6" into 3-6 snowflakes north of the Raritan or even 195. And the "blizzard" this year. Point being that there's still too much that can go wrong 42 hours out. I'll feel much better at ~18 hours out at 12Z tomorrow, if the models are still showing 6" or more. On the flip side, I'll still be happy to get 3-5" of snow or even 2" of snow and 2" of sleet on 3/5, but I'd really love to have one shellacking this winter...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45894-possible-snow-rain-snow-event-tuesday-thursday-33-52015/page-6#entry3473242

Edit: by the way, I'm very glad I waited until this morning. The inch or so of snow/sleet/ice was solid as a rock last night when I got back from the RU game and while it didn't melt and run off, with temps in the mid-30s this morning, at least it was soft and easy to shovel.
This post was edited on 3/4 11:37 AM by RU848789

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

That model that Lee Goldberg showed last night might have been onto something

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by bac2therac:
That model that Lee Goldberg showed last night might have been onto something

Maybe - did you see that discussion on American that I had going on that? Didn't realize they use the RPM, which is private, i.e., not available to the public, although that was showing essentially zero snow south of a line from about Lambertville to Staten Island (and even Lee said he thought it was wrong, lol, and predicted 4-8" for all of NYC Metro) and none of the models is showing that, just less than before. My thought now is that 3-6" is likely for Central Jersey and if I get more I'll consider it a bonus. Less than that I would be very disappointed in. Tough winter for the models...

 

[WhiteBus]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by WhiteBus:
#s Yes. More than half those towns are upper bucks. Im south of the Burlington Bridge. At no time yesterday was the ground covered where I could not see grass. I live here. There wasn't jack of an accumulation of snow. There was more hail by far than snow. By 4:30 all rain.
Most of those towns are closer to Allentown than where I am at. And some at higher elevations.

So, you got zero snow/sleet and yet towns to your south and SW got 1.0-1.4" and obviously every town to your NW got at least an inch. That's almost impossible. Isn't it at least possible you got about an inch of snow/sleet, which wouldn't cover all the grass? An inch is really not that much and is within the 1-3" call. And like I said above you did not have hail, you had sleet, and sleet counts towards the snow total.

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 1.4 1200 AM 3/02 NWS OFFICE
WRIGHTSTOWN 1.0 700 AM 3/02 TRAINED SPOTTER
FLORENCE 1.0 208 PM 3/01 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
PHILADELPHIA CENTER 1.0 930 AM 3/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

So, I owe WhiteBus a partial apology and vice versa, I think. I posted on American asking for anyone in Bucks in the vicinity of Bristol/Croydon PA how much snow/sleet they got and amazingly, that area truly was in some weird hole, with several posters saying they got around 1/2-3/4" of combined snow and sleet. Less than an inch, so technically less than the 1-3" the NWS forecasted (just about the only area they missed on), but more than the zero snow (and snow includes snow and sleet, when measuring, although in fairness WB might not have known that) he claimed.

I accept your apology....I think. I don't know where I owe you one however? I posted accurate information and you disagreed. Know it seems you are not disputing my observations as others have now confirmed.

Plus I have been very clear about "snow" amounts not a combined snow/sleet. But even the snow/sleet totals were not near predicted. Certainly not outside the 24 hours predictions when the TV's are trying to get more eyeballs by hyping amounts.

I think you fail to realize how big Bucks County is, I know Jerseez doesn't have a clue! Would you use snow amounts in Hunterdon County to compare what Burlington County got? Of course not. Bucks County shares the Delaware River with 3 counties. All off Hunterdon, all of Mercer and most of Burlington.

Also you may or may not be aware that Philadelphia's "official" amounts and temps come from the Philadelphia Airport not the city itself. The Airport is at the bottom end of Philadelphia County, is 10 miles from Center City and nearly 30 miles from here.

As for tomorrow's storm the stations are already in retreat mode now that we within 24 hours. Last night was 8inch to a foot. NBC just posted 4-7 now. Lets see if the others follow suit.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by RU848789:

by the way, I'm very glad I waited until this morning. The inch or so of snow/sleet/ice was solid as a rock last night when I got back from the RU game and while it didn't melt and run off, with temps in the mid-30s this morning, at least it was soft and easy to shovel.

Yeah, but heavy as hell, impregnated as it was with water. Not too bad to push, but when you have to throw it on a pile that's already 5 feet high.....