No, I'm using history as a guide. Nokia & Yahoo were similar innovators in growth industries with low barriers to entry. TSLA has a 6% ROE, is selling at 17x sales, and has $50 billion cash on the balance sheet. I'm guessing once he pisses this away through acquisitions trying to grow that RoE, you're gonna have a really nice collectible on your hands.
I agree with almost everything you’ve written about TSLA. As a car manufacturer, it’s destined to be a low margin, low return business because that is what auto manufacturing is as a business. There will be plenty of competition, and the Tesla brand won’t be worth much In terms of actual shareholder returns. However, there is one exception, and it might be big enough to make all the difference in the world. If Tesla can establish a large enough share of the EV market and have a very high penetration of subscription based Saas revenue from Tesla owners, it will generate better returns for a period of time until other manufacturers catch up. And I think they will catch up. The question is how long will it take, and how sticky will the saas be for Tesla owners. Will it be akin to an iPhone? I doubt it will have anywhere near that level of stickiness, but it doesnt need to for that revenue stream to be quite valuable. Simply put, the car is the hardware delivery mechanism designed to deliver higher margin services. Eventually, all auto manufacturers will offer a similar service, but until they do, a first mover that amasses meaningful share will earn outsized returns.
As an enterprise, Tesla fascinates me. As a business, it is relatively mediocre from a returns perspective. As a steward of capital, it’s a big fat failure. And as an investor, I wouldn’t touch it at anywhere near this price.