OT: Stock and Investment Thread

RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
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Don't dodge the question. There's a fairly obvious answer. Give it a shot.

And your off about the pre-order #s. CT was still way ahead of the Lightning after a 2 day comparison. And as I stated before, there was a surge in CT orders after the Lightning was revealed. I guess there was a bunch of people waiting on the Lightning reveal before making a decision. When you compare specs and value there's an obvious winner. That said, I'm sure Ford will sell every Lightning they make. They're just not going to be able to make that many compared to Tesla's CT.
The reservation numbers are nonsense because it’s only $100. And, that doesn’t just apply to Tesla. I know plenty of people that have multiple reservations on different vehicles simply based on FOMO.
 
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RUAldo

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Interesting article from Morningstar that, as the title suggests, warns about thematic funds.
I also like the emphasis on fees because that’s an important aspect of investing that many people overlook - especially when working with financial advisors. No surprise that CW has sky-high fees and explains why she’s such an active pumper - gotta keep the AUM locked down.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
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Don't dodge the question. There's a fairly obvious answer. Give it a shot.

And your off about the pre-order #s. CT was still way ahead of the Lightning after a 2 day comparison. And as I stated before, there was a surge in CT orders after the Lightning was revealed. I guess there was a bunch of people waiting on the Lightning reveal before making a decision. When you compare specs and value there's an obvious winner. That said, I'm sure Ford will sell every Lightning they make. They're just not going to be able to make that many compared to Tesla's CT.
Not sure about the Ford Lighting. I was referencing the GM EV Hummer. Not sure that Tesla can beat the big auto at the production game. To me, CT is a gimmick truck. No mass appeal.
 

RUJohnny99

All-American
Nov 7, 2003
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Tesla will be fine. Tesla stock will be a different story. Love to hear how much money they are making on these powerwalls.
The more I deal with the company, the more I realize it's just a house of cards. I bought a house in September with leased Tesla obsolete solar panels, that were originally purchased through Solarcity. Closing was delayed because it took 3 months to find a person in the property & title department of TSLA to turn the contract over. Finally closed 12/30 and had free electricity until April when they realized they never turned their monitoring system on. I reached back out to the CSR who took ownership in December to find she was no longer with the company. She literally cashed out her options and doesn't have to work anymore. Once again I can't find someone to explain how to buyout the lease or purchase powerwalls for a leased system.

To me this company is the Nokia or Yahoo of EV. They were first to market in an industry with low barriers of entry. As more competitors enter the scene, it will become evident Tesla has no long term business model. And Musk's diworsification strategy will make it a conglomerate of poorly run businesses bought with inflated equity that were really trendy in the early 2020s. A modern version of United Technologies.
 
Dec 4, 2010
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The more I deal with the company, the more I realize it's just a house of cards. I bought a house in September with leased Tesla obsolete solar panels, that were originally purchased through Solarcity. Closing was delayed because it took 3 months to find a person in the property & title department of TSLA to turn the contract over. Finally closed 12/30 and had free electricity until April when they realized they never turned their monitoring system on. I reached back out to the CSR who took ownership in December to find she was no longer with the company. She literally cashed out her options and doesn't have to work anymore. Once again I can't find someone to explain how to buyout the lease or purchase powerwalls for a leased system.

To me this company is the Nokia or Yahoo of EV. They were first to market in an industry with low barriers of entry. As more competitors enter the scene, it will become evident Tesla has no long term business model. And Musk's diworsification strategy will make it a conglomerate of poorly run businesses bought with inflated equity that were really trendy in the early 2020s. A modern version of United Technologies.
Tesla's customer service is subpar. That is a very fair criticism.

Your 2nd paragraph is funny. Making the impossible possible is a poorly run business? Tesla is the first American start-up car company in 100 years to achieve volume production. To do so with EVs makes it an even greater achievement. You're also betting against a guy who figured out how to land and reuse rockets.

Don't let a lousy customer service experience blind you to the bigger picture.
 
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RUJohnny99

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Your 2nd paragraph is funny. Making the impossible possible is a poorly run business? Tesla is the first American start-up car company in 100 years to achieve volume production. To do so with EVs makes it an even greater achievement. You're also betting against a guy who figured out how to land and reuse rockets.

No, I'm using history as a guide. Nokia & Yahoo were similar innovators in growth industries with low barriers to entry. TSLA has a 6% ROE, is selling at 17x sales, and has $50 billion cash on the balance sheet. I'm guessing once he pisses this away through acquisitions trying to grow that RoE, you're gonna have a really nice collectible on your hands.
 

Frida's Boss

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Oct 10, 2005
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No, I'm using history as a guide. Nokia & Yahoo were similar innovators in growth industries with low barriers to entry. TSLA has a 6% ROE, is selling at 17x sales, and has $50 billion cash on the balance sheet. I'm guessing once he pisses this away through acquisitions trying to grow that RoE, you're gonna have a really nice collectible on your hands.

I agree with almost everything you’ve written about TSLA. As a car manufacturer, it’s destined to be a low margin, low return business because that is what auto manufacturing is as a business. There will be plenty of competition, and the Tesla brand won’t be worth much In terms of actual shareholder returns. However, there is one exception, and it might be big enough to make all the difference in the world. If Tesla can establish a large enough share of the EV market and have a very high penetration of subscription based Saas revenue from Tesla owners, it will generate better returns for a period of time until other manufacturers catch up. And I think they will catch up. The question is how long will it take, and how sticky will the saas be for Tesla owners. Will it be akin to an iPhone? I doubt it will have anywhere near that level of stickiness, but it doesnt need to for that revenue stream to be quite valuable. Simply put, the car is the hardware delivery mechanism designed to deliver higher margin services. Eventually, all auto manufacturers will offer a similar service, but until they do, a first mover that amasses meaningful share will earn outsized returns.

As an enterprise, Tesla fascinates me. As a business, it is relatively mediocre from a returns perspective. As a steward of capital, it’s a big fat failure. And as an investor, I wouldn’t touch it at anywhere near this price.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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I shorted shares this morning at 34. Also bought puts. Did the same for GME.
Don't mess with WSB/Reddit.

 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
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Bingo! She is echoing Powell and also saying that deflation is coming due to productivity gains via innovation. Both have been saying the same thing for a long time.
Can you link an article that Powell thinks deflation is coming?
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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At some point they have to take profit. Unless it’s not a money thing for them.
For WSB, I believe f'ing the shorters is the top priority. And I guess once they are run out of town, the stock will go to the moon and beyond (even more than now).
 
Dec 4, 2010
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No, I'm using history as a guide. Nokia & Yahoo were similar innovators in growth industries with low barriers to entry. TSLA has a 6% ROE, is selling at 17x sales, and has $50 billion cash on the balance sheet. I'm guessing once he pisses this away through acquisitions trying to grow that RoE, you're gonna have a really nice collectible on your hands.
Another post for the archive.
 
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Dec 4, 2010
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Not following you on the reg credits. I asked the question and you responded with another question. I don’t know the answer and that’s why I asked the question.
Reg. credits allow Tesla to grow and spend faster than they would without them. If regulatory credits went to 0, they would grow and spend less. You and the other TSLAQ fud-sters act like Tesla is surprised at the end of each quarter with a suitcase full of cash. They know exactly how much to expect well in advance and plan their spending accordingly.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
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Reg. credits allow Tesla to grow and spend faster than they would without them. If regulatory credits went to 0, they would grow and spend less. You and the other TSLAQ fud-sters act like Tesla is surprised at the end of each quarter with a suitcase full of cash. They know exactly how much to expect well in advance and plan their spending accordingly.
Yes, they can plan in advance to manage cost. But how are they going to be profitable?
 

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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It will be interesting to see what effect the shift to EV from the legacy company's has on TSLA in terms of regulatory credits.
 

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Today’s inflation numbers completely contradict CW. And, unless I missed a Powell briefing, he never said deflation is coming.
Wood said inflation short to midterm, potential for deflation in the longer term.

And no Powell is not going to say he expects deflation. Have to read between the lines.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
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For WSB, I believe f'ing the shorters is the top priority. And I guess once they are run out of town, the stock will go to the moon and beyond (even more than now).
LOL.....give them credit for selling that narrative. Can’t believe how many are falling for it.
 

RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
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Wood said inflation short to midterm, potential for deflation in the longer term.

And no Powell is not going to say he expects deflation. Have to read between the lines.
Of course deflation in long term…if inflation lasts forever we are all F’d
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
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Dec 4, 2010
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This appears to be a false narrative brewed up in the minds of TSLA fanatics.


I don't think the author of your article knows how EVs work. Not a single word about batteries. How can you talk about scaling production and profitability and not mention batteries or suppliers? Especially since the Lightning is going to have a huge battery pack.
That was fluff. Still have no idea how they're going to scale production, but I did learn how awesome the Lightning's frunk is.
 
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Jtung230

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Anyone with experience or knowledge with solar please chime in.

I’m only interested in using solar + battery for emergency/backup purpose ( in lieu of a gas generator). Is there a way to have just enough solar panels to charge up the batteries to run the house or does it take the same amount of panels to charge up the batteries as to run the house?
 

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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I don't think the author of your article knows how EVs work. Not a single word about batteries. How can you talk about scaling production and profitability and not mention batteries or suppliers? Especially since the Lightning is going to have a huge battery pack.
That was fluff. Still have no idea how they're going to scale production, but I did learn how awesome the Lightning's frunk is.
I don't care much about the rest of the article. Point as it relates to this line of discussion was the quote from Ford is saying the Lightning will be profitable.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Hmm:
"He declined to specify whether every model will make money, saying the company doesn’t discuss such details for any vehicle."

So, the less expense model which will have the higher sales volume will be a financial dog.

#dontbelievethehype
If the whole line makes money I'm not going to worry about the details.

Ford has also said they expect their margins to increase in coming years.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,214
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If the whole line makes money I'm not going to worry about the details.

Ford has also said they expect their margins to increase in coming years.
Very easy to say something. Let's see what actually happens. Reading between the lines, doesn't seem likely that it will be profitable.
 

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Anyone with experience or knowledge with solar please chime in.

I’m only interested in using solar + battery for emergency/backup purpose ( in lieu of a gas generator). Is there a way to have just enough solar panels to charge up the batteries to run the house or does it take the same amount of panels to charge up the batteries as to run the house?
I don't have experience or knowledge here, but I would think the more panels you have the quicker it charges. But if you give it enough time, a relative few panels would charge a relatively large battery.