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WhichReligionIsRight

Heisman
Oct 19, 2010
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jtung230 said:
But that’s what Musk said. Goes back to my point the fan boys are so willing to move the goal post.
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The link you posted is compelling.

There's are articles saying Musk said there was a chance Tesla would produce 1m cars in 2021. I doubt there is a direct quote from Elon himself stating Telsa would build or sell 1m cars in 2021.
 
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BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap

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Dec 4, 2010
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jtung230 said:
Google is your friend. I thought you follow this company.
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You know I follow Tesla closely, and I've heard no such prediction from Elon or anyone within Tesla.
>50% annual growth is the only guidance I am positive of.
YOU made the statement about 1 million vehicles in 2021. Support it with evidence.
I'm open to the possibility I'm wrong or I missed something.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,098
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RU-05 said:
Their growth rate is very impressive, yes, even moreso given the environment.
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I love second derivatives. Do you think supply shortage hurts mass production or limited production. I just think that chip shortage hurts the big boys than a niche player.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,098
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82
BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap said:
You know I follow Tesla closely, and I've heard no such prediction from Elon or anyone within Tesla.
>50% annual growth is the only guidance I am positive of.
YOU made the statement about 1 million vehicles in 2021. Support it with evidence.
I'm open to the possibility I'm wrong or I missed something.
Click to expand...

 
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theRU

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Dec 17, 2008
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Anyone watching NLY? Bought heavy on the covid low at $4.50 and $5 so have that nice return and getting fat dividends but seems too good to be true
 
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RU in IM

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2011
2,678
2,139
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theRU said:
Anyone watching NLY? Bought heavy on the covid low at $4.50 and $5 so have that nice return and getting fat dividends but seems too good to be true
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Seems like it could be highly sensitive to interest rates as they own a huge book of mortgage-backed securities, and their portfolio of assets had a yield of less that 2% (1.97%) in the second quarter of 2021. If longer term rates go up, these assets will decline in value, unless they are properly hedged. It looks like you bought it at a 20 year low, so that’s good. Not sure why the dividend is so high (in my very brief research) given their modest to small net interest margin.

Update: from their last quarter filing: “During the second quarter, Annaly navigated a more challenging market backdrop marked by heightened rate and spread volatility, an elevated prepay environment and increased discussion of an eventual Fed Taper,” remarked David Finkelstein, Annaly’s Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer.”

so it sounds like any significant spike in rates could cause some risk here, as the 2nd quarter had a bump in rates. But, the change in basis points on the 10-year was modest compared to other inflationary cycles. If you look at their performance during the 2004-2006 cycle, their stock dropped from $19 to about $11. This was before the mortgage crises, but during a time that mortgage rates spiked over a 20-month period, thus negatively impacting the value of mortgage-backed assets. But please don’t base any decisions on my comments…. I am in banking, but not an investment advisor.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Really nice beat in retail sales, there were expectations for a modest contraction, but 1.8% growth reported instead.

So consumer confidence is better in reality then it was in theory.
 
RUTGERS95

RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
29,589
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RU-05 said:
EV sales will grow at significantly faster rate. Just guessing, but over the next decade? 500% growth maybe.

It is true that ICE cars will continue to have a place in the world over the next decade or two, at least, but EV is absolutely happening.
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coming from nothing that is nothing. 1% to 5% of total vehicle sales and those projections are at full steam with no hiccups.

Just look at the energy issues Europe is having. This is too fun to watch
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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WhichReligionIsRight said:
I try to take everyone who posts here seriously, but this is a bad faith post.
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Is it the lack of actual quotes from Musk that makes you say this?

I mean there was this tweet.......from someone who was there.

Elon also said there was a chance that Tesla could produce and deliver 1 Million cars this year. He also said Giga Shanghai was expanding a lot and rounded it off by saying this year will be great and 2022 should be even better.

— Sawyer Merritt
📈
🚀
(@SawyerMerritt) March 26, 2021


Isn't this akin to a prediction?

Sarcasm for those that missed it.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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RUTGERS95 said:
coming from nothing that is nothing. 1% to 5% of total vehicle sales and those projections are at full steam with no hiccups.

Just look at the energy issues Europe is having. This is too fun to watch
Click to expand...
Fun?
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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mdk01 said:
And with an average life of 12 years, and not certainly going from growing 25% a year to zero sales, the demise of ICE vehicles is being greatly exaggerated.
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I hear people saying EV sales will grow, I really don't hear too much about the demise of internal combustion. Certainly not for the foreseeable.
 
M

mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
26,473
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RUTGERS95 said:
coming from nothing that is nothing. 1% to 5% of total vehicle sales and those projections are at full steam with no hiccups.

Just look at the energy issues Europe is having. This is too fun to watch
Click to expand...

Right, the demise of coal EXCEPT when the wind doesn't blow on the North Sea or shutting down your nukes leaves you short of generating capacity. If they were really serious about their self--righteousness they'd have replaced their sinful ICE vehicles with Flintstone power.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Revenues for the past 5 years for GM and TSLA.

GM down about 18%, from $149 billion to 122 billion

TSLA up about 350% from $7 billion up to 31.5 billion.

I'm not so familiar to which qtr's tend to show the best revenue results in the auto industry, but just going off q1 and q2 results it looks like TSLA is on pace to have 2021 rev's come in at around $45 bil, so high 40% growth yoy. GM is on pace for $132bish revs, less then 10%.
 
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RUJohnny99

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Nov 7, 2003
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theRU said:
Anyone watching NLY? Bought heavy on the covid low at $4.50 and $5 so have that nice return and getting fat dividends but seems too good to be true
Click to expand...
I recall getting burnt on NLY in the 2010-2012 timeframe, but I forget the details. I tend to fall for yield traps. lol
 
R

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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RUJohnny99

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RU-05 said:
Really nice beat in retail sales, there were expectations for a modest contraction, but 1.8% growth reported instead.

So consumer confidence is better in reality then it was in theory.
Click to expand...
2 points:

a) Given the increase in the money supply, should a 1.8% uptick be considered growth?
b) Amazon revenue was up 27.2% while all of retail is up 1.8%. What is the retail ex-AMZN number? The big 3-4 retailers continue to starve out competition, and are fighting a labor war that will accelerate the death of mid-tier retailers/specialties.
 
R

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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RUJohnny99 said:
2 points:

a) Given the increase in the money supply, should a 1.8% uptick be considered growth?
b) Amazon revenue was up 27.2% while all of retail is up 1.8%. What is the retail ex-AMZN number? The big 3-4 retailers continue to starve out competition, and are fighting a labor war that will accelerate the death of mid-tier retailers/specialties.
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a)Retail sales since March are way above the precovid trend line. It has come down a bit since, but it was up month over month, and it was expected to be down. So yeah, it's growth, and it was above expectations.

b)Was Amzn up 27% month over month? Did they report their August #'s?

But here is part of the breakdown.
"Spending soared the most at nonstore retailers — which include e-commerce websites and pop-up stands — as such businesses enjoyed a 5.3% gain. Furniture stores saw a 3.7% jump in sales and merchandise retailers followed with a 3.5% increase.

Other sectors continued to see sales slide through the virus resurgence. Spending at electronics and appliance stores slid 3.1% in August, while sales at vehicle dealers and parts stores dropped 3.6%. Sales were flat in restaurants and bars, suggesting the renewal of some mask-wearing rules did little to dent Americans' return to dining out."

 
M

mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
26,473
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RU-05 said:
Coal use is declining. In the US it peaked in 2007. It's usage is down over 50% since then.

Click to expand...

Explain how that is relevant to the use of coal in:

1. Germany

2. United Kingdom

While you're at it please explain to me why in a "zero" tsunami or earthquake area of the world the zero emission zealots shut down their nukes (notice I did not say build new ones) when the result is an increase in coal use.
 
R

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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mdk01 said:
Explain how that is relevant to the use of coal in:

1. Germany

2. United Kingdom

While you're at it please explain to me why in a "zero" tsunami or earthquake area of the world the zero emission zealots shut down their nukes (notice I did not say build new ones) when the result is an increase in coal use.
Click to expand...
Germany:


England.

Seriously, do a little homework.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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What I like about internet debating is it forces me to go find information. Someone makes a point about something, let me go find out if the stats back that up. I learn stuff. Like even above, I didn't know all those countries have seen significant declines in coal usage. I knew the US has transitioned to natural gas and other sources and I've heard China is trying to get away from coal as well, but I didn't know to what extent. This forced me to go find out what is actually happening out there.

Same with the point above about retail sales, I didn't know where we were in terms of sales now relative to pre covid levels. Way above as it turns out, though we have declined a bit since our peak in April. I now know this.

Comparing TSLA's growth over the last 5 years to GM, I did have an idea that this was happening, but I reinforced that idea with actual reported #'s.

Just shooting from the hip saying stuff I heard somewhere as if I know these things as facts? What is that doing for me? Perhaps reinforcing false notions? Pass.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,241
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RU-05 said:
What I like about internet debating is it forces me to go find information. Someone makes a point about something, let me go find out if the stats back that up. I learn stuff. Like even above, I didn't know all those countries have seen significant declines in coal usage. I knew the US has transitioned to natural gas and other sources and I've China is trying to get away from coal as well, but I didn't know to what extent. This forced me to go find out what is actually happening out there.

Same with the point above about retail sales, I didn't know where we were in terms of sales now relative to pre covid levels. Way above as it turns out, though we have declined a bit since our peak in April. I now know this.

Comparing TSLA's growth over the last 5 years to GM, I did have an idea that this was happening, but I reinforced that idea with actual reported #'s.

Just shooting from the hip saying stuff I heard somewhere as if I know these things as facts? What is that doing for me? Perhaps reinforcing false notions? Pass.
Click to expand...
You really don't understand the internet. The internet is for trolling and bitching, not learning.

😁
 
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RUTGERS95

RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
29,589
40,786
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mdk01 said:
Explain how that is relevant to the use of coal in:

1. Germany

2. United Kingdom

While you're at it please explain to me why in a "zero" tsunami or earthquake area of the world the zero emission zealots shut down their nukes (notice I did not say build new ones) when the result is an increase in coal use.
Click to expand...
you have to just ignore the nonsense. His use of this to support his view is freshman like.

funny thing is the ev crowd doesn't realize the environmental impact is worse with the mining, energy needed to shift the paradigm, recycling concerns, rare earth metals variables etc etc etc

gas cars are not the problem
 
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