OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[RUDead]

First hike was almost certainly going to be .25 and I think fairly likely the rest would be .25 as well with somewhat smaller but realistic possibility of a .5 move somewhere in there imo. It's all "data dependent" as they say and that's part of the uncertainty....have to see what the "data" shows.

Atlanta Fed with new first qtr GDP forecast:

Latest estimate: 0.0 percent — March 1, 2022​

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on March 1, down from 0.6 percent on February 25. After recent data releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, an increase in the nowcast in first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.6 percent to 2.3 percent was more than offset by a decline in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth from -0.10 percentage points to -0.94 percentage points.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/res...m_source=mailchimp&utm_campaign=cqer-research

 

[ashokan]

I saw this morning V and MA did the same.

The cool-kid hive minders all want to "other" Russia while keeping the oil

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

Being a little too chicken at times has cost me some trades. CRM earnings solid and guidance raised to the high end of the range. Thought this one would get hit regardless of earnings because of the PE. Had an order at 190 and would've hit last Thursday on that big turn day. Now up to 220 after hours. Suppose it's a little bit of a relief rally as well.

This one not in my wheelhouse but SOFI up about 7-10% after hours on earnings.

 

[T2Kplus20]

First hike was almost certainly going to be .25 and I think fairly likely the rest would be .25 as well with somewhat smaller but realistic possibility of a .5 move somewhere in there imo. It's all "data dependent" as they say and that's part of the uncertainty....have to see what the "data" shows.

The data will help finalize the policy, but it is clear that Powell and a majority of Fed members support the "go slow" approach. Maybe this changes, maybe it doesn't.

Interesting tidbit from the CVX CEO. They are forecasting the price of oil to be $50/barrel for 2023.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Being a little too chicken at times has cost me some trades. CRM earnings solid and guidance raised to the high end of the range. Thought this one would get hit regardless of earnings because of the PE. Had an order at 190 and would've hit last Thursday on that big turn day. Now up to 220 after hours. Suppose it's a little bit of a relief rally as well.

This one not in my wheelhouse but SOFI up about 7-10% after hours on earnings.

Excellent across the board beat by CRM! Great company. Part of my long-hold stock account:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/01/salesforce-crm-earnings-q4-2022.html

 

[T2Kplus20]

Starting to become a clown show for the bad guys:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ian-invasion-plans/ar-AAUtI5L?ocid=entnewsntp

 

[Jtung230]

Being a little too chicken at times has cost me some trades. CRM earnings solid and guidance raised to the high end of the range. Thought this one would get hit regardless of earnings because of the PE. Had an order at 190 and would've hit last Thursday on that big turn day. Now up to 220 after hours. Suppose it's a little bit of a relief rally as well.

This one not in my wheelhouse but SOFI up about 7-10% after hours on earnings.

SOFI up 16%. Which means I’m only down 10% now. LOL. Missed my triple down by 2 cents at 8.80.

 

[Jtung230]

Starting to become a clown show for the bad guys:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ian-invasion-plans/ar-AAUtI5L?ocid=entnewsntp

The sad part is it won’t matter. Hope he doesn’t burn it all down.

 

[T2Kplus20]

The sad part is it won’t matter. Hope he doesn’t burn it all down.

They can burn down Kiev, but the entire country is way too big and 44 million people are not going quietly. Also, their economy is in collapse, so what the hell is Putin's endgame? No idea.

 

[T2Kplus20]

SOFI up 16%. Which means I’m only down 10% now. LOL. Missed my triple down by 2 cents at 8.80.

Nice quarter for SOFI. If the CEO got the message the market is giving, get to profitability ASAP. This needs to be their #1 priority, even if it is just a token amount.

I think SOFI is still a great long play.

 

[Jtung230]

Nice quarter for SOFI. If the CEO got the message the market is giving, get to profitability ASAP. This needs to be their #1 priority, even if it is just a token amount.

I think SOFI is still a great long play.

I sold all of my position at a WAP of 22 but unfortunately bought it back “cheap” at WAP 16.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I sold all of my position at a WAP of 22 but unfortunately bought it back “cheap” at WAP 16.

Hold until it gets back to 22 (at least). Shouldn't be long.

 

[RUAldo]

Excellent across the board beat by CRM! Great company. Part of my long-hold stock account:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/01/salesforce-crm-earnings-q4-2022.html

CRM is on my watch list. I’ll likely jump in at some point when things settle down, but I’m currently trying to figure out if the financial stocks are an opportunity in the face of the current sanction uncertainty. The sell-off in financials like JPM, WFC, and C seems way over done.

 

[RUAldo]

I sold all of my position at a WAP of 22 but unfortunately bought it back “cheap” at WAP 16.

I got in around $16 and have DCA’d down to $11. Would love to see it get acquired to get it off my hands. I wanted to sell at $22 but got greedy.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

CRM is on my watch list. I’ll likely jump in at some point when things settle down, but I’m currently trying to figure out if the financial stocks are an opportunity in the face of the current sanction uncertainty. The sell-off in financials like JPM, WFC, and C seems way over done.

A couple Fast Money traders said the same thing I mentioned....high PE and relief rallly. So I'm not sure if it will last just like rallies in other stocks faded over some time. I missed out on the trade but I would have sold it on this earnings report. IMO rallies are still to be sold.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

Nice quarter for SOFI. If the CEO got the message the market is giving, get to profitability ASAP. This needs to be their #1 priority, even if it is just a token amount.

I think SOFI is still a great long play.

I don't get SOFI really or anything similar. Maybe it's my old fashioned thinking. Why would I go there for any sort of personal finance needs as opposed to a money center bank or regional bank like I do now. It doesn't make money either.

Is the profile of customer of a lower credit quality? If so then wouldn't that be a credit risk issue, especially as rates rise. How much assets does it even have?

It does seems to have decent trading range so might be good for that but I don't know why it's a good long term play unless you think it's going to get taken over and it might but that's never a reason to own a stock IMO. That's a bonus reason but shouldn't be THE reason.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

I don't get SOFI really or anything similar. Maybe it's my old fashioned thinking. Why would I go there for any sort of personal finance needs as opposed to a money center bank or regional bank like I do now. It doesn't make money either.

Is the profile of customer of a lower credit quality? If so then wouldn't that be a credit risk issue, especially as rates rise. How much assets does it even have?

It does seems to have decent trading range so might be good for that but I don't know why it's a good long term play unless you think it's going to get taken over and it might but that's never a reason to own a stock IMO. That's a bonus reason but shouldn't be THE reason.

My father and grandfather were both lifelong community bankers. I’d love to go to an actual branch where I can interact with humans but they are closing every day. The bigger banks are pushing everything online. The problem is SoFi does online better than any of them. I still use PNC, but I have a SoFi account and am about ready to make the switch.

 

[T2Kplus20]

My father and grandfather were both lifelong community bankers. I’d love to go to an actual branch where I can interact with humans but they are closing every day. The bigger banks are pushing everything online. The problem is SoFi does online better than any of them. I still use PNC, but I have a SoFi account and am about ready to make the switch.

+1
Traditional players are banks that try to do business online. SOFI is truly an online bank and it shows. As they get more and more services/offerings, younger gens will flock to it.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

My father and grandfather were both lifelong community bankers. I’d love to go to an actual branch where I can interact with humans but they are closing every day. The bigger banks are pushing everything online. The problem is SoFi does online better than any of them. I still use PNC, but I have a SoFi account and am about ready to make the switch.

It’s not just B&M I’m talking about I’m talking anything. I’ll have much more trust in any product or account security or whatever with JPM, BAC, PNC etc name behind it compared to SOFI. Even with that, you know I won’t trust wealth management advice and the like from retail banks as opposed to actual wealth management firms and brokerages. You can just imagine what I’d think of a SOFI lol.

What exactly does SOFI do better?

 

[T2Kplus20]

It’s not just B&M I’m talking about I’m talking anything. I’ll have much more trust in any product or account security or whatever with JPM, BAC, PNC etc name behind it compared to SOFI. Even with that, you know I won’t trust wealth management advice and the like from retail banks as opposed to actual wealth management firms and brokerages. You can just imagine what I’d think of a SOFI lol.

What exactly does SOFI do better?

^^^^^ Boomer.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

^^^^^ Boomer.

In my 40s but can have that mindset. Again though, still haven’t answered what exactly is it that SOFI does better?

 

[RUAldo]

It’s not just B&M I’m talking about I’m talking anything. I’ll have much more trust in any product or account security or whatever with JPM, BAC, PNC etc name behind it compared to SOFI. Even with that, you know I won’t trust wealth management advice and the like from retail banks as opposed to actual wealth management firms and brokerages. You can just imagine what I’d think of a SOFI lol.

What exactly does SOFI do better?

Younger folks want a slick UX and one-stop shop for all their financial needs like banking, loans, investments, etc. Also, helps with app fatigue.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

Younger folks want a slick UX and one-stop shop for all their financial needs like banking, loans, investments, etc. Also, helps with app fatigue.

So that sounds like superficial things but nothing substantive.

Also not sure why you couldn’t get a one stop shop for all your financial needs at place like JPM assuming you have the credit worthiness.

 

[RUAldo]

So that sounds like superficial things but nothing substantive.

Also not sure why you couldn’t get a one stop shop for all your financial needs at place like JPM assuming you have the credit worthiness.

I’m not sure the Big Banks are nimble enough and/or care to make the retail customers their number one concern. Those guys make a killing off commercial lending, prop trading desks, wealth planning, derivatives, etc. I always viewed SOFI as a threat to main street banks and consumer lending.

 

[RUDead]

I’m not sure the Big Banks are nimble enough and/or care to make the retail customers their number one concern. Those guys make a killing off commercial lending, prop trading desks, wealth planning, derivatives, etc. I always viewed SOFI as a threat to main street banks and consumer lending.

The banks are slow and hard to deal with. I just did a deal with a non bank lender for a multi million dollar credit line. Took a tenth of the time to get done than a bank would and the rate is roughly the same.

 

[T2Kplus20]

The banks are slow and hard to deal with. I just did a deal with a non bank lender for a multi million dollar credit line. Took a tenth of the time to get done than a bank would and the rate is roughly the same.

+1
Better website, easier process, less steps required, etc.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Not a well run military:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...entagon-says/ar-AAUtqxm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

 

[RUAldo]

Biden isn’t messing around. How will Putin respond? How will the stock market respond?

 

[Jtung230]

Not a well run military:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...entagon-says/ar-AAUtqxm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

The propaganda goes both ways. I’m pulling for these guys but the news is giving them way too much credit. I’m afraid that we are all being setup for a massive tragedy.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Biden isn’t messing around. How will Putin respond? How will the stock market respond?

Was watching something else. What did Biden say? The stock market will if the western world stays unified and essentially ends Russia as a future thread. This is also a nice warning to China not to mess around.

 

[RUAldo]

Was watching something else. What did Biden say? The stock market will if the western world stays unified and essentially ends Russia as a future thread. This is also a nice warning to China not to mess around.

He basically said Putin is F’d and thanked him for uniting the world. Said Putin doesn’t know what’s coming. Made it clear that we will defend every inch of NATO and Russia will suffer like never before. The chant of “USA” from the attendees reminded me of a scene from Rocky IV. Told the oligarchs they are screwed - goodbye jets, mansions, yachts.

 

[T2Kplus20]

He basically said Putin is F’d and thanked him for uniting the world. Said Putin doesn’t know what’s coming. Made it clear that we will defend every inch of NATO and Russia will suffer like never before. The chant of “USA” from the attendees reminded me of a scene from Rocky IV. Told the oligarchs they are screwed - goodbye jets, mansions, yachts.

 

[Randal7]

I’m a staunch conservative and I thought that was a great speech. These three things alone should blast us upward:

1) Ending Covid restrictions, get kids back to school, get people back to work, end mask mandates

2) Build American for America

3) Fund the police

yes, this was a democratic state of the union! How can you not love it

 

[goru1869]

Nothing but typical BS from a public servant. He lost me after the Ukraine part of the speech. Just another jack off who doesn't care about anything but themselves.

 

[RUDead]

I’m a staunch conservative and I thought that was a great speech. These three things alone should blast us upward:

1) Ending Covid restrictions, get kids back to school, get people back to work, end mask mandates

2) Build American for America

3) Fund the police

yes, this was a democratic state of the union! How can you not love it

It's an election year. They aren't going to actually do any of these things.

 

[Randal7]

It's an election year. They aren't going to actually do any of these things.

If he doesn’t then yea he deserves scorn. I’m simply remarking that those things sounded good to me

 

[RU05]

Not a well run military:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...entagon-says/ar-AAUtqxm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

There are reports that troops are punching holes in their tanks gas tanks so they don't have to keep going.


They may not be well run, but good for them that they are willing to disobey orders in order to do the right thing.

 

[RU05]

I’m a staunch conservative and I thought that was a great speech. These three things alone should blast us upward:

1) Ending Covid restrictions, get kids back to school, get people back to work, end mask mandates

2) Build American for America

3) Fund the police

yes, this was a democratic state of the union! How can you not love it

Interesting, Brett Baier(who I really like) and the gang on fox were hating on it pretty good.

As middle of the road liberal I thought it was OK. But then again, I tend to think all the SOTU's are OK, maybe they are too long for me to look at them critically.

 

[RU05]

As per the discussion of banks above, I'm a little too heavy on financials and I took a pretty solid hit today.

I was down 2.5 % midday. Got to around 2% at close, Sofi got me back to 1.3% in extended.

The thought from the midday guys is the Ukraine situation is going to slow down rate hikes, and thus diminishing whatever wind was in their sails.

 

[RU05]

We are only six days into the war and Russia has barely used missile and planes. That could change at any time.

This is true, and even while fumbling they can still power their way into cities, or worse, just bomb the heck out of them..

But NATO already has their back up. They are watching, they are ready. If Russia tried to roll into a NATO country with a 40 mile long convoy they will get slaughtered.