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rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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What do you all think of one time fave NVDA? I saw a note from Baird with not so great an outlook. I was mentioning awhile back some chip shortages could become gluts in the future and that note gave me the impression that might happening. Thinking the 115-135 area give or take could be a level of support. Still somewhat of a premium PE though there.

AAPL finally gave up the ghost while I was gone. 110-125 area maybe?
 
R

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
rutgersguy1 said:
What do you all think of one time fave NVDA? I saw a note from Baird with not so great an outlook. I was mentioning awhile back some chip shortages could become gluts in the future and that note gave me the impression that might happening. Thinking the 115-135 area give or take could be a level of support. Still somewhat of a premium PE though there.

AAPL finally gave up the ghost while I was gone. 110-125 area maybe?
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I think NVDA salesman, T2K, can provide you with some insight.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,301
19,285
113
rutgersdave said:
I think NVDA salesman, T2K, can provide you with some insight.
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NVDA = first $5T company

All the innovation that big tech is promising requires NVDA chips. Pretty simple. If the economy/supply chain has a blip or two.....BUY THE DIP!!!!!!!
 
S

Scarletnut

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
5,471
4,164
77
rutgersguy1 said:
What do you all think of one time fave NVDA? I saw a note from Baird with not so great an outlook. I was mentioning awhile back some chip shortages could become gluts in the future and that note gave me the impression that might happening. Thinking the 115-135 area give or take could be a level of support. Still somewhat of a premium PE though there.

AAPL finally gave up the ghost while I was gone. 110-125 area maybe?
Click to expand...
I think NVDA is still way ahead of the competition and you'll be very happy longterm if you own it.
 
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B

BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap

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Dec 4, 2010
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RU-05 said:
I combed through Teslike's twitter and it def sounds like Shanghai is going to be a drag. CSCO was just hit big on it's earnings and they pointed directly at the Shanghai shutdowns. Are those shutdowns unjust, much like the Fremont shutdowns were? Perhaps, but shutdowns to some capacity expected till June 1st, some cars are mostly built, but waiting on a single part.

One also must wonder about how the Euro market is going to perform, certainly appears to be a more difficult landscape there.

Now all that's is admittedly short term stuff.

Long term Teslike has production estimates for 2022 being 1.46 million cars. Right around 50% increase yoy. 2023 he estimates 2.1 mil. Again 50%, so maintaining fantastic growth. 2024 2.56milion, so growth slows significantly, to around 20%. 2025, 2.68 million, which is 5ish%.

So much like industry analysts Teslike see's growth leveling off significantly in coming years. To reach 20 million by 2030 as you predicted earlier, they would need to expand production by 8x in 5 years time. I imagine at some point we hear plans for new plants, but color me skeptical.
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To shut down or not to shut down. We could go down a long road on that topic. It is what it is. It's certainly going to hurt q2. Good news is a 2nd shift is being added this week, and production #'s are expected to normalize.

Can you link Troy's production estimates tweet? I can't find and frankly, I'm shocked by those #s.

Here's what I see. By 2024, Shanghai I and II will be at 1.2 million units.
Fremont 800k
Berlin 800k
Austin 1 million
That's 3.8 million.

Battery supply will remain the long term bottleneck, but Tesla is taking measures to keep the spice flowing. Expansion on all fronts, including new products, will continue.
 
R

rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
16,774
0
ScarletNut said:
I think NVDA is still way ahead of the competition and you'll be very happy longterm if you own it.
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I have owned it long term and I'm very happy with it. It's my best performing stock ever lol. Just dumb luck mind you that it shot up like a rocket the way it did over the last handful of years. I've actually sold 2/3s of what had not wanting to be pig because I had huge gains and quite a bit of money was left on the table but what are you gonna do. The last 1/3 I'm holding regardless.

I'm just contemplating a spot where I may finally add to the original shares I purchased long ago. I think that time may be on the horizon considering the drop. The PE would be semi tolerable in the low 100s depending on how their growth trajectory and guidance looks.
 
R

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
Brought some COST, PYPL, more MSFT, and ADBE before the market and added AMZN 2,080. I don’t know the bottom so started added new positions but will continue to add with expectation of market decline. I wouldn’t be surprise if AMZN hits 1,900 and AAPL 125.

I have GTC at various levels of SPY 25% down to 35% and plan on doing the same at various levels for QQQ. At 35% down will add UPRO and TQQQ.

NVDA I’m waiting for 150 but feel much better at 140’s.
 
R

rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
16,774
0
rutgersdave said:
Brought some COST, PYPL, more MSFT, and ADBE before the market and added AMZN 2,080. I don’t know the bottom so started added new positions but will continue to add with expectation of market decline. I wouldn’t be surprise if AMZN hits 1,900 and AAPL 125.

I have GTC at various levels of SPY 25% down to 35% and plan on doing the same at various levels for QQQ. At 35% down will add UPRO and TQQQ.

NVDA I’m waiting for 150 but feel much better at 140’s.
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I think I mentioned PYPL before I left the 70-85 area was okay spot to add and it does look that about where it stopped and is hanging around for now.

AMZN months ago I mentioned 2000 so that to me isn’t a bad spot but things can always go lower so have to be ready in case it does and average down in spots that I think could be support and depending on the overall market conditions. That’s what I’ve always done but only with what I consider top quality companies at somewhat reasonable or reasonable valuations. Over the long haul it usually pays off more times than not.

I had some things get bought (AAPL, GOOGL among others) on open orders I had before I left. Others I missed out on by a few bucks.

IMO if rates go up enough TINA of the past decade or so I think will finally abate but markets generally go up over time but just not to some of the crazy returns of recent times.
 
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R

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
rutgersguy1 said:
I think I mentioned PYPL before I left the 70-85 area was okay spot to add and it does look that about where it stopped and is hanging around for now.

AMZN months ago I mentioned 2000 so that to me isn’t a bad spot but things can always go lower so have to be ready in case it does and average down in spots that I think could be support and depending on the overall market conditions. That’s what I’ve always done but only with what I consider top quality companies at somewhat reasonable or reasonable valuations. Over the long haul it usually pays off more times than not.

I had some things get bought (AAPL, GOOGL among others) on open orders I had before I left. Others I missed out on by a few bucks.

IMO if rates go up enough TINA of the past decade or so I think will finally abate but markets generally go up over time but just not to some of the crazy returns of recent times.
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Had PYPL at the split with EBAY in 2014 and added some more for cost about $63 and sold at $180 in 2020. Did the same with FB , tax basis $49 and sold for $200 but glad I sold them before they fell. PYPL was $80 in 2017 five years ago so $80 now at 25 PE is good. I have some FB that I recently purchased but will be added more on the next downturn. AMZN was $1,950 in 2018 4 years ago so $2,000 ain’t bad In 2022. FB was $207 in 2018 and now $194 at 14PE 4 years later.
 
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R

RUJohnny99

All-American
Nov 7, 2003
64,666
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PYPL was highlighted in a Barron’s article this weekend about stocks that appear cheap, but aren’t. Stock based compensation amounted to 7% of sales in Q1. In a down market, that knocks it’s E23 GAAP earnings from 4.86 to 3.21, which puts its p/e at 25 instead of 17

The other companies mentioned as accounting traps were CRWD, SNOW, SHOP, ZS, & LYFT.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,301
19,285
113
rutgersdave said:
Brought some COST, PYPL, more MSFT, and ADBE before the market and added AMZN 2,080. I don’t know the bottom so started added new positions but will continue to add with expectation of market decline. I wouldn’t be surprise if AMZN hits 1,900 and AAPL 125.

I have GTC at various levels of SPY 25% down to 35% and plan on doing the same at various levels for QQQ. At 35% down will add UPRO and TQQQ.

NVDA I’m waiting for 150 but feel much better at 140’s.
Click to expand...
If VOO gets down to -25%, I am converting to SSO in one of our main retirement accounts (Fidelity IRA rollover). We shall see!

I was out of the loop all today due to work meetings. Nice green day.
 
R

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
RUAldo said:
Down 30% - time to buy?

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Down 80% overall from $83 to $16 while affecting FB and GOOG.

I will hold off buying anymore till I see the S&P 25% off the high, 30-35% is now more realistic. When earnings come out, it appears to hit the entire segment. FB PE approaching 12-13 and GOOG 18-19. I guess when the market crashes FB PE will be 10 and GOOG 15.

The real action will start in June when the Fed raises interest rate and later in July when earnings start coming out, just got to be patience.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,301
19,285
113
rutgersdave said:
Down 80% overall from $83 to $16 while affecting FB and GOOG.

I will hold off buying anymore till I see the S&P 25% off the high, 30-35% is now more realistic. When earnings come out, it appears to hit the entire segment. FB PE approaching 12-13 and GOOG 18-19. I guess when the market crashes FB PE will be 10 and GOOG 15.

The real action will start in June when the Fed raises interest rate and later in July when earnings start coming out, just got to be patience.
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Be careful with that patience. The next inflation data point may cause the boom that most bears will miss. It's coming very soon.
 
R

RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
4,692
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Whoa SNAP really pummeled Meta and Alphabet…good thing they are two of my largest positions - this is just brutal…thankfully I’m sitting on plenty of cash but money just evaporating everywhere.
 
R

rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
16,774
0
RUAldo said:
Whoa SNAP really pummeled Meta and Alphabet…good thing they are two of my largest positions - this is just brutal…thankfully I’m sitting on plenty of cash but money just evaporating everywhere.
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I think some are getting a lesson in the fact that markets don't go up all the time and just how hard a downturn can be. No more easy money means no more easy market returns and no more TINA to prop the market to inflated levels.

High quality at reasonable valuations will come through over the long haul IMO. Specifically, I'd wonder if some of the usual dividend paying sectors undergo any sort of repricing for "acceptable yields" if rates go up enough. With rates being so low for so long what was considered "acceptable" for dividend stocks came down but if that turns will the "acceptable yields" of those stock have to go up as well. I hope so because those are some of my favorite kind of companies because of my conservative nature.
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,692
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113
rutgersguy1 said:
I think some are getting a lesson in the fact that markets don't go up all the time and just how hard a downturn can be. No more easy money means no more easy market returns and no more TINA to prop the market to inflated levels.

High quality at reasonable valuations will come through over the long haul IMO. Specifically, I'd wonder if some of the usual dividend paying sectors undergo any sort of repricing for "acceptable yields" if rates go up enough. With rates being so low for so long what was considered "acceptable" for dividend stocks came down but if that turns will the "acceptable yields" of those stock have to go up as well. I hope so because those are some of my favorite kind of companies because of my conservative nature.
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Fortunately I’m still in the green on Meta and Alphabet but this Snap BS seemed to come out of left field. Conditions deteriorated that much in one month - GMAFB
 
R

rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
16,774
0
Speaking of yields, just noticed VZ went into the 45s while I was away. Also see that Buffet sold almost all his stake in it. I wonder if it might revisit that 45 area again and if it does maybe not a bad spot for it and then 42 after that. I read ATT and VZ are adding some fees per line as well.
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,692
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rutgersguy1 said:
Speaking of yields, just noticed VZ went into the 45s while I was away. Also see that Buffet sold almost all his stake in it. I wonder if it might revisit that 45 area again and if it does maybe not a bad spot for it and then 42 after that. I read ATT and VZ are adding some fees per line as well.
Click to expand...
T has held up surprisingly well. With the dividend yield and fee increases could be a safe haven.
 
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RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
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RUAldo said:
T has held up surprisingly well. With the dividend yield and fee increases could be a safe haven.
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safe haven is not putting any more money in the market till it fall further down big.

FB PE is 13 and GOOG is 18 so they will fall maybe 1-2 more points. MSFT PE IS 27 but should be 24-25 which translates to $234 or $20 further drop. AAPL PE is 22.5 should be 19 or a drop to $117 or $20 further. That’s how we get to 30% down market.
 
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R

RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
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rutgersdave said:
safe haven is not putting any more money in the market till it fall further down big.

FB PE is 13 and GOOG is 18 so they will fall maybe 1-2 more points. MSFT IS 27 but should be 24-25 which translates to $234 or $20 further drop. AAPL PE is 22.5 should be 19 or a drop to $117 or $20 further. That’s how we get to 30% down market.
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Yeah I’m 50% cash although I still hate seeing the rest of my accounts bleed. But times like this make you laugh at the debates on this thread when stocks were at ATHs and people were saying “buy, buy, buy” = now it’s “bye, bye, bye”
 
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R

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
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T2Kplus20 said:
You always think a stock will go lower. I hear both will get down to about $1000. LOL!
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Well, most of my AMZN was around 2,140 but I was too early for GOOG at 2,350. AMZN PE is 51 and the market hasn't gone down 25% yet. They’ll move with the market.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,301
19,285
113
rutgersdave said:
Well, most of my AMZN was around 2,140 but I was too early for GOOG at 2,350. AMZN PE is 51 and the market hasn't gone down 25% yet. They’ll move with the market.
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I'm jumping into the deep end at -25% (as per past posts). Let's see if it happens! :)
 
A

ashokan

Heisman
May 3, 2011
25,325
19,688
0
mosito said:
To buy More Now or Not to buy..... ARGH!!!!!
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People here probably heard of Edward Dowd (former portfolio manager for BlackRock). He said market is headed for a bloodbath around fall (I know such predictions are routine but Dowd fleshes it out over span of current monetary system - which is unspooling), There will be short-lived hope rallies after that (but while a toxic social situation is also arising) and then another crash that will have nations demanding a new monetary system (which we can already see the manipulations being made for that - lots of cooks over that pot)

Dowd said we’ve been in a bubble for several decades, and the actual market floor hasn’t been seen since late 1980s. He said the current money system has some corruption built-in but corruption escalated over time and the “institutional imperative” became about maintaining the game and not following sound advice
Current rate of inflation lines-up neatly with commodities indexes
The intentional energy evisceration by US, and the China lockdowns (economic warfare and not health measures in my view) kicked-off a lot of inflation problems (along with too much money creation of course).

I like when people look at dynamics over time and include broad views.
For me, economic problems and social mutations go hand-in-hand.
When a female justice cant define what a woman is and institutions are off the rails (mothers getting swatted for school meetings and NYers wont use subways because of fear) then those are canaries tipping over in the mine

Dowd Interview
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,301
19,285
113
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,686
9,173
113
BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap said:
To shut down or not to shut down. We could go down a long road on that topic. It is what it is. It's certainly going to hurt q2. Good news is a 2nd shift is being added this week, and production #'s are expected to normalize.

Can you link Troy's production estimates tweet? I can't find and frankly, I'm shocked by those #s.

Here's what I see. By 2024, Shanghai I and II will be at 1.2 million units.
Fremont 800k
Berlin 800k
Austin 1 million
That's 3.8 million.

Battery supply will remain the long term bottleneck, but Tesla is taking measures to keep the spice flowing. Expansion on all fronts, including new products, will continue.
Click to expand...


So a caveat in that these estimates are a year old, and does include this note:

"In 2024 and 2025, Tesla is expected to add new buildings to Giga Berlin, Texas, and Shanghai. Presumably, those buildings will be for the $25K compact car. However, we don't know anything about those plans yet. Therefore the compact car is not included here and the 2024 and 2025 sections in these tables are incomplete because they only show what the current buildings are estimated to produce.

An interesting question here is that, when should we start to see some construction work if the new buildings were to start production on January 1st, 2024? Based on my calculation, that would be 1st June 2022. So, ideally, that's when groundworks should begin."


So I missed this, but this does cut both ways. Assuming production begins January 1st(Which sounds ambitious all things considered) then car sales will be higher than the estimates that he has laid out. However the 25K modell Y will likely not be a high profit/high margin car. So production will increase more then EPS.

And this still get's us nowhere near 20 million cars by 2030. You mentioned 3.8M by 2025, so need more then 5x production between 2025 and 2030 without any word of expansion beyond the expansion of the factories you mentioned.

As per the shutdowns, you are right it is what it is. And it caused a miss when Fremont was shutdown, and will likely have some effect on this upcoming quarterly with Shanghai shut down.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,686
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T2Kplus20 said:
Nice article. The CNBC Charity Trust team has been buying big tech like mad for the past week. BTW, for you traders, the market reaction to SNAP seems grossly over the top. I mean to biblically stupid proportions.
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SNAP revising guidance one month after earnings causing major selloffs in the likes of FB and GOOGL does sound pretty silly.

Luckily I own all three. :(
 
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