8% is high for a diversified portfolio. Given the sell off we are seeing and the increase in the risk free return, professionally managed money is setting long term expectations around 7%-7.25% right now . This is an increase from 6.75%.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Well, yes, that's their role and the whole point, to bring down inflation. Think "controlled burning" in an overgrown forest. You create a fire, carefully, in a controlled manner. It burns and takes out the weak and fallen and the unwanted growth. The flames subside. Then regeneration occurs; new growth happens.
A nice $2k increase sounds good to me. IRAs should also get a $500 bump to $6500.
Made the mistake of getting takeout from our local diner while kitchen is being worked on. Turns out they levied a menuwide 23% hike in prices this past month. Another place we are writing off, what a waste.
Got an oil change this week and it was 20% higher than April, same place. If they think people are going to put up with 2-4% annual increases on top of this they’ll run themselves out of business. Who wants to pay 20 bucks for a panini.
Shoprite still increasing prices monthly. This not so slow creep is going to erode consumer spending, which is while its far too soon to celebrate inflation supposedly leveling out.
Got an oil change this week and it was 20% higher than April, same place. If they think people are going to put up with 2-4% annual increases on top of this they’ll run themselves out of business. Who wants to pay 20 bucks for a panini.
Shoprite still increasing prices monthly. This not so slow creep is going to erode consumer spending, which is while its far too soon to celebrate inflation supposedly leveling out.
Yep..got lunch today and what cost me $10 last year is now $16 in NYC
people will be doing a lot more home cooking and meal prep of this continues
BlackRock finally feeling some escalting heat for selling US out to China (who forced BlackRock to push ESG if they wanted to do business in China). It was BlackRock who got wokes on Exxon's board and a 20% production expansion was scratched. ESG is subversion.
"Jamie Dimon told clients this week that “some investors don’t give a s–t” about “ESG,” the woke investing approach that US companies increasingly have embraced under political pressure, sources told The Post."
"Jamie Dimon told clients this week that “some investors don’t give a s–t” about “ESG,” the woke investing approach that US companies increasingly have embraced under political pressure, sources told The Post."
China aren't the ones behind ESG. It's the globalist at the World Economic Forum like Fink himself. They have been on board with this for a while.
Lots of solid earnings coming out so far. Goldman and JJ come in strong.
Also news on CRM:
Also news on CRM:
All that is needed is for the fed to indicate they will slow or stop written rates because the economy is slowing down on its own now
Projections of around a 30% increase in natural gas costs this winter for the US. Gonna hit those inflation numbers hard.
Why the stock market going up big the last two days when inflation numbers are going higher?
Market is trading on earnings right now. People can cite and debate CPI and other metrics but at the end of the day if continued price increases in different sectors persist, consumer spending will absolutely decrease which will have a delayed trickle up effect on corporate revenue and earnings.
Also interesting that the VIX has only modestly pulled back, not the plummet I was expecting given earnings.
CPI = garbage
Use it for historical purposes, not future looking policy decisions. Let's talk real-time indicators for that. If leading/real-time metrics for housing were used in CPI instead of the current nonsense which lags 9-12 months, core inflation would be 0. Yes, that's right, it would literally be 0.
Because inflation is much, much, much lower right now than the Fed thinks. And regardless of how dumb they are, sooner or later they will figure it out.
0 inflation compared to what? Last month? 2 months ago? That's because prices are inflated for the past several months. You have to compare prices to pre-inflation rises. If there is no change in prices next month or 3 months from now, that doesn't mean inflation has disappeared. Prices would still be much higher than last year. Inflation goes down when core items (food, energy, etc) regress to previous norms.
Agree, we need some month over month deflation to get back to where we need to be
Month over month. Total inflation is negative and core is flat (over the past 3 months and counting). Year over year and going back to the start of the pandemic, we are obviously at a higher price plateau.
We are never getting back down. And remember, wages have gone up a ton as well, so real inflation is only 3-4% year over year.
It’s only my wife and I now but we basically have mitigated the increase in food prices because I convinced my wife to try the store brand on a lot of the stuff we buy. She has been happy with the quality.
We also buy a lot based on sales.
If we want something we buy it but small changes have kept our food bill pretty stable
Huge pop for NFLX, up 14% after hours:
I don’t expect -8% inflation in the next year, but some deflation is probably warranted. Things got silly with every good and service increasing whether they needed to or not.
Never look at the grocery bill, but I just did notice that our roasted farm raised Griggstown chicken for dinner was $15.50 instead of the normal $13.50. WTF!
I'm sure there will be some deflation. Already saw plenty of it for energy costs.
A drain cleaning product which cost us $20 a gal in late July just came in at $17.
Looks like some of our copper products have come down as well.
Overall the trend is still upwards, but finally starting to see signs of inflation cooling at end markets.
I go to whole foods and get the store brand. Can still get junk free, organic foods at a decent price.
And as T2K noted above, I've gotten 2 big raises the past 2 years. This coinciding with finally paying off my student loans and I'm saving at a better clip now than I did pre pandemic. Yes things are more expensive but my bump in pay more than convers it.
Quality food is worth the extra cost (not talking about inflation, just overall).
It wants to go up, but the Fed is being stupid. This is now an artificial bear market.
One of the good things about inflation over the past 12 months:
The market seems to have accepted that the Fed is going to continue to raise rates, but now its stuck in a range, albeit a volatile range. Outside big news either way, I think this may continue until the midterms.
Markets continue to go up and it appears very difficult to see newer lows unless this continue till June 2023 but maybe when the tech earnings are announced it can turn the market downward. Feds definitely increasing till the end of the year.
Where do you see markets continuing to go up? What time frame? 1yr, 6month, 3 month all down. 1 month is barely up but its basically going sideways.
It’s a slow crawl upward. Going to be difficult to get back into the 3,500’s. It is going sideway but these upward move are huge and the downward move smaller. It’s forcing me to buy more into the market but I’m more comfortable with the stocks that I picked. Maybe just impatient.
What’s strange is Prof Siegel said the market was 20% undervalued a couple of days ago but the market is only about 25% from the highs. That doesn’t make sense.
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Refineries are inherently dirty. Sure, you can increase the complexity and US refineries are generally very complex relative to the rest of the world, but they are still environmentally harmful. Facing stiff regulations (and I'm not arguing against this), new investment in this sector is dead on arrival. De-bottlenecking? Sure, that can add some capacity. Incremental capacity will be built in the developing world where they are more concerned about growing their standard of living versus reducing emissions. The US loses control over the process and becomes dependent on others. We pay more.
Looks like 3q earnings, just like 2q are not going to be the disaster some feared.
And i talked about it a couple weeks ago, and just alluded to it in a recent post. With unemployment this low, and with individual pay up, that is just not a recipe for a bad across the board earnings season.
Which is not to say this has been a great earnings season, its merely meh, but meh should keep the market from sinking to new lows.
And i talked about it a couple weeks ago, and just alluded to it in a recent post. With unemployment this low, and with individual pay up, that is just not a recipe for a bad across the board earnings season.
Which is not to say this has been a great earnings season, its merely meh, but meh should keep the market from sinking to new lows.