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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

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May 1, 2007
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Super bear begins to capitulate:

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says inflation has peaked; S&P 500 could go to 4,150 (more than 6% upside from Friday's close). Wilson adds bonds and stocks may be pricing in too much hawkishness from the Federal Reserve, which gathers Tuesday and Wednesday. A 75-basis-point interest rate hike is expected for the fourth straight meeting.
 
RUinPinehurst

RUinPinehurst

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BlackRock's Wei Li: "We believe that rates will continue rising. It will peak at 5%. And not too understate it, that's a very, very restrictive territory. In fact, where we are now, at 3.25%, is already restrictive to the economy. So our belief is that in this current supply-constrained environment, the Fed is going to have to engineer a recession in order to bring down inflation. Our assessment is that if they were to want to bring down inflation to 2% reasonably quickly, it represents a 2% shock to the U.S. economy in 2023. It also represents 3 million additional people out of a job, pushing unemployment rate to 5%."
 
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RUinPinehurst

RUinPinehurst

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Bloomberg reporting this morning that 37% of small businesses could not pay their full amount of rent due for the month of October. That is a pretty ominous bit of news.
 
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RUschool

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Jan 23, 2004
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Fed increase rate tomorrow. Interesting the Fang appear to be going down to new lows, AAPL can’t hold on forever.
 
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RU05

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RU05

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rutgersdave said:
Fed increase rate tomorrow. Interesting the Fang appear to be going down to new lows, AAPL can’t hold on forever.
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AMZN quickly giving back that bounce off the post earnings bottom.

I sold $95 puts, when it was over $100.. Got a $1 premium. Currently in the money.
 
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RUDead

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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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The cracks are already starting to show with the Fed! They know the pivot is coming very quickly, but still too scared to admit it. Like always, the market will figure this out months before the Fed does.

Great day! Let the dust settle, but the time to man-up and buy hand over fist is upon us. Enjoy.
 
thegock

thegock

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T2Kplus20 said:
The cracks are already starting to show with the Fed! They know the pivot is coming very quickly, but still too scared to admit it. Like always, the market will figure this out months before the Fed does.

Great day! Let the dust settle, but the time to man-up and buy hand over fist is upon us. Enjoy.
Click to expand...

Good thing my aunt and uncle listened to you and stuck it out in Ft Meyers Beach when Ian rolled through.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

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thegock said:
Good thing my aunt and uncle listened to you and stuck it out in Ft Meyers Beach when Ian rolled through.
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?????
Ft. Meyers? I spoke about Marco Island a bit. Regardless, if your Aunt and Uncle took weather advice from a Rutgers sports online message board.....they are dumb. LOL!
 
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RUschool

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Jan 23, 2004
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T2Kplus20 said:
The cracks are already starting to show with the Fed! They know the pivot is coming very quickly, but still too scared to admit it. Like always, the market will figure this out months before the Fed does.

Great day! Let the dust settle, but the time to man-up and buy hand over fist is upon us. Enjoy.
Click to expand...
I did buy some, small quantity, GOOG and MSFT and other DOW stocks after the close. I had reduced my exposure of the FANG stocks to less than 30 shares each before the drop and time to build them back. There will be more opportunities to buy at lower prices.

Definitely a difficult market but in 2 years at least 30% return.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

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rutgersdave said:
I did buy some, small quantity, GOOG and MSFT and other DOW stocks. I had reduced my exposure of the FANG stocks to less than 30 shares each before the drop and time to build them back. There will be more opportunities to buy at lower prices.
Click to expand...
I continue to eye that $37.5 level for SSO (for conversion of VOO). Still a while to go with that one. Otherwise, I will do a double buy on Friday with our normal ETFs and add to TQQQ if it hits a new low. Wouldn't mind another SOXL trade if it drops to the low $7 or high $6. Hmm.....

Are you still looking for any conversions to leveraged indexes?
 
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RUschool

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Jan 23, 2004
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T2Kplus20 said:
I continue to eye that $37.5 level for SSO (for conversion of VOO). Still a while to go with that one. Otherwise, I will do a double buy on Friday with our normal ETFs and add to TQQQ if it hits a new low. Wouldn't mind another SOXL trade if it drops to the low $7 or high $6. Hmm.....

Are you still looking for any conversions to leveraged indexes?
Click to expand...
Still too early, SPY 3800 too high still waiting for at least 3,500 and maybe 3,300. This will happen in 2023. I wish the market move faster but got to be patience.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

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rutgersdave said:
Still too early, SPY 3800 too high still waiting for at least 3,500 and maybe 3,300. This will happen in 2023. I wish the market move faster but got to be patience.
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I bet the formal pivot will come by early 2023 (if not sooner). The real-time inflation data continues to look good, so the lagging metrics will be catching up soon. I have to check, but I think there is a nice bump up in base comparators for Oct and Nov 2021 CPI data. That helps the math as well for the next few readings.
 
RUTGERS95

RUTGERS95

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Sep 28, 2005
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jtung230 said:
Yes
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He'll win it. Policy has lots of interpretation
ashokan said:
Great time for tech and electronics
Retailers have too much inventory and fewer buyers
I just bought a $350 Dell gaming display for $150 new (hopefully no switched innards as Dell can do).
AMD and Intel are both introducing new cpus but sales are down and they still have older cpus that are fast.

Locally the prices rises slowed but a lot of them froze high (not gas)
I've seen a lot of scaled back hours (Chinese takeout closed one day a week and local hardware dropped half day Sundays).

My focus now is derivatives since I found out my bank has 65 trillion in derivatives and if a bank fails derivatives have to be sorted out before any FDIC obligations. Its been my unprofessional opinion that banks, financials, markets etc have probably lost track of a lot of things (See movie "Margin Call" with Stanley Tucci). In 2008 crisis the WSJ reported computer models meant to send "red flags" never sent them because the models were measuring the wrong variables. With so many mergers and acquisitions, along with rising complexity and reliance on electronics (and lying governments) I think things have gone untracked (dispersal of responsibility etc)



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We are more levered in mmkt instruments than in 08. Less players was a mistake.
 
RUinPinehurst

RUinPinehurst

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Given the conditions, it's a good time to build a Treasuries ladder. 4-week, 8-week, 13-week bills. Longer-term bonds/notes may be more attractive as we roll into 2023.

Anyone doing this?
 
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RU05

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I was down about 1.4% around 3:20. Seeing the NSDQ closed down over 3%? I don't even want to look.

I did pick up the SQQQ last week when it closed below 50.50, sold calls at $54 for this week, collected a $2 premium for my efforts, pretty deep in the money now. Would be a really nice trade but missing out on some upside.

See what happens tomorrow, (wouldn't be surprised to see a reversal, much like we have seen after previous fed announcements) but might look to see if I can roll those calls up a little higher.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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RU-05 said:
I was down about 1.4% around 3:20, see the NSDQ down over 3%? I don't even want to look.

I did pick up the SQQQ last week when it closed below 50.50, sold calls at $54 for this week, collected a $2 premium for my efforts, pretty deep in the money now. Would be a really nice trade but missing out on some upside.

See what happens tomorrow, (wouldn't be surprised to see a reversal, much like we have seen after previous fed announcements) but might look to see if I can roll those calls up a little higher.
Click to expand...
Instead of all these options that minimize upside, why not just buy and let it ride?
 
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RUschool

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Jan 23, 2004
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RUinPinehurst said:
Given the conditions, it's a good time to build a Treasuries ladder. 4-week, 8-week, 13-week bills. Longer-term bonds/notes may be more attractive as we roll into 2023.

Anyone doing this?
Click to expand...
I have treasuries expiring Dec, Jan, Mar, Apr and some longer term. I was waiting for today to see where the rates end up.
 
Postman_1

Postman_1

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Mar 12, 2017
7,857
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RU-05 said:
AMZN quickly giving back that bounce off the post earnings bottom.

I sold $95 puts, when it was over $100.. Got a $1 premium. Currently in the money.
Click to expand...
AMZN is currently on sale people have been saying since it was around $130. Crazy drop for it
 
R

RU05

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T2Kplus20 said:
Instead of all these options that minimize upside, why not just buy and let it ride?
Click to expand...
Because the SQQQ is right where it was in late May. I've only been in for a month or two, but there's been a ton of premium that could of been had during that time frame.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,254
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RU-05 said:
Because the SQQQ is right where it was in late May. I've only been in for a month or two, but there's been a ton of premium that could of been had during that time frame.
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But it you are doing the short-term trading game, you have to trade. For traders. these 3x'er are to catch the movement, not hedge with options. Right?
 
R

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
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RU in IM said:
But still is at a high P/E multiple, especially with a potential recession.
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Don’t know how low it can go.

Buying more Treasuries today, probably moving to 45-50% of assets to treasuries or if the 5 year move over 5% move to 60% of assets. Before this year, never owe any Treasuries or CD.

I‘m in line with RUinPinehurst strategy.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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rutgersdave said:
Don’t know how low it can go.

Buying more Treasuries today, probably moving to 45-50% of assets or if the 5 year move over 5% move to 60% of assets.
Click to expand...
Don't waste your money on treasuries. Keep it ready to go to deploy. These opportunities don't come around often. Remember, the greatest times to buy are when it feels the worst. Over the past 20 years, March 2009 was probably the best time to buy equities. The financial world was still crashing around us then. Patience.
 
R

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
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T2Kplus20 said:
Don't waste your money on treasuries. Keep it ready to go to deploy. These opportunities don't come around often. Remember, the greatest times to buy are when it feels the worst. Over the past 20 years, March 2009 was probably the best time to buy equities. The financial world was still crashing around us then. Patience.
Click to expand...
I have them at different maturity date so I’m always liquid but the turnaround will take longer than expected. At the minimum, I expect June 2023. There’s no urgency to make 10% every year since assets are for the next generation. I was glad when I got my dad 30 years bonds from the 1980’s at around 7 plus % so 5% ain’t so bad.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,254
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rutgersdave said:
I have them at different maturity date so I’m always liquid but the turnaround will take longer than expected. At the minimum, I expect June 2023. There’s no urgency to make 10% every year since assets are for the next generation. I was glad when I got my dad 30 years bonds from the 1980’s at around 7 plus % so 5% ain’t so bad.
Click to expand...
Careful. You thought it would take much longer for the COVID rebound and I'm sure you thought the same thing in March 2009. Right? The market is a leading indicator for things turning around. If you wait for the formal all-clear sign, it's too late.

The 3-year Volker bear market was fully corrected within 4 months. And Volker announced the pivot at the end of month 3! The market doesn't wait.
 
RUTGERS95

RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
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rutgersdave said:
I have them at different maturity date so I’m always liquid but the turnaround will take longer than expected. At the minimum, I expect June 2023. There’s no urgency to make 10% every year since assets are for the next generation. I was glad when I got my dad 30 years bonds from the 1980’s at around 7 plus % so 5% ain’t so bad.
Click to expand...
you are better off with a fund as it replaces aged Ts with new higher rate ones. Buying short dated Ts here is rather foolish and I'm a bond guy....or was
 
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