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OT: Stock and Investment Thread

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FastMJ

All-American
Jan 6, 2007
33,910
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T2Kplus20 said:
MoM Core CPI would be NEGATIVE for October if real-time housing data was used instead of the lagged garbage that is currently used.

Regardless, this is where CPI is slowly trending to. It's a mathematical certainty.
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Have you actually looked at the CPI report that shows the data by category? I agree with the criticism of the shelter category being lagged, but there is more to the story. For example, food prices has been strongly increasing every single month this year. October food prices slowed down to "only" 0.6% month on month from September but that is still a 7.2% annualized rate and 10.9% YOY.

The good news in this report was used cars (negative 2.4% MOM) and medical services (negative 0.6% MOM).

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
 
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RUBlackout7

All-Conference
Apr 10, 2021
1,535
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We’re in store for another 50/75 BPs next followed by multiple rounds of 25/50 throughout 2023. They’ll prob stop increasing late 2023 at the earliest and a reverse won’t be thought about until 2024.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,660
9,161
113
mildone said:
Not sure if you mean we're about to have an 18 month run of daily 6-7% gains on the Nasdaq. But I'll take it, please. 😀
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History doesn't lie.

But this is the best day in the Nasdaq since April 2020, so there were some better days early in the rebound. I was only starting to delve in at that point.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,660
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RUBlackout7 said:
We’re in store for another 50/75 BPs next followed by multiple rounds of 25/50 throughout 2023. They’ll prob stop increasing late 2023 at the earliest and a reverse won’t be thought about until 2024.
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Sounds way aggressive. Current expectations are for rates to top out around 5% in May.
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,665
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RU-05 said:
Says the guy who has is the proud owner of T.
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T is up like 20% in the past month on a killer quarter. Tack on the dividends I picked up since buying and I’m basically back to even as opposed to the red I’m seeing on other stocks of mine.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,660
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A cool CPI sparking the market coming in just after the elections.

That would have been a conspiracy theory for sure.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,660
9,161
113
RUAldo said:
T is up like 20% in the past month on a killer quarter. Tack on the dividends I picked up since buying and I’m basically back to even as opposed to the red I’m seeing on other stocks of mine.
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Up 20% off of 30 year lows. Off more then 50% since it's highs way back in 2000.

Still way below precovid levels. Underperforming ARKK over the last 3 years, 5 year and 10 year time frames. That disparity grows larger over the longer time frames.

How long have you owned it?
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,660
9,161
113
Santolli confirms 200 dma is around 4100K.

Doesn't quite like the 8% move in AAPL though. Too big a move for such a giant company.
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,665
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RU-05 said:
Up 20% off of 30 year lows. Off more then 50% since it's highs way back in 2000.

Still way below precovid levels. Underperforming ARKK over the last 3 years, 5 year and 10 year time frames. That disparity grows larger over the longer time frames.

How long have you owned it?
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Bought and sold several times within past 12 months. I’m not suggesting that T was my best investment but better than Vacasa which got shredded today. That was my spec play and I was stupid enough to follow Jimmy Booyah on that recommendation, something I usually never do.
 
S

Scarletnut

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
5,471
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I traded TQQQ a few times over the past week for a nice chunk of change. Sold it at 21 this afternoon again for a nice profit. Closed around 21.50 but I couldn't predict whether or not the rally would sell off. I didn't get greedy, quite satisfied.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,660
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Icahn on the overtime this afternoon. Still bearish, thinks inflation is not rolling over as Siegel thinks.

This is not to suggest one is right while the other wrong, but Siegel gives an impassioned coherent argument while Icahn is a painful old man ramble.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,660
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Add Minerd to the list of bears who thinks we rally into the end of the year. Still considers it a relief rally though.

Morgan Stanleys Mike Wilson being another who holds to this line of thinking.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,250
19,256
113
RUBlackout7 said:
We’re in store for another 50/75 BPs next followed by multiple rounds of 25/50 throughout 2023. They’ll prob stop increasing late 2023 at the earliest and a reverse won’t be thought about until 2024.
Click to expand...
If Nov CPI (Dec 13 report date) comes in soft as well, we are only getting a .25 increase to wrap up the year.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,250
19,256
113
ScarletNut said:
I traded TQQQ a few times over the past week for a nice chunk of change. Sold it at 21 this afternoon again for a nice profit. Closed around 21.50 but I couldn't predict whether or not the rally would sell off. I didn't get greedy, quite satisfied.
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I'm a long hold on TQQQ. I think it was up about 8000% today. LOL!
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,250
19,256
113
RU-05 said:
Icahn on the overtime this afternoon. Still bearish, thinks inflation is not rolling over as Siegel thinks.

This is not to suggest one is right while the other wrong, but Siegel gives an impassioned coherent argument while Icahn is a painful old man ramble.
Click to expand...
Icahn probably doesn't really think that, he's likely shorting the market.

Siegel has been right on inflation and the Fed since 2021. Gotta believe him over Icahn who likely has personal motives to be bearish.

Once again, I have been saying for months.....this market wants to run. Any hint of good news and KABOOM.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,250
19,256
113
RU-05 said:
Add Minerd to the list of bears who thinks we rally into the end of the year. Still considers it a relief rally though.

Morgan Stanleys Mike Wilson being another who holds to this line of thinking.
Click to expand...
Is doesn't matter about TA or 200ma or labeling it a relief rally or not. The only thing that matters is INFLATION. If this is a trend of softening monthly CPI reports, the market will keep going up and up and up. It's really that simple.

Sure, we will have plenty of up and down days in between reports, but inflation is all that matters.
 
J

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,103
12,266
82
T2Kplus20 said:
Icahn probably doesn't really think that, he's likely shorting the market.

Siegel has been right on inflation and the Fed since 2021. Gotta believe him over Icahn who likely has personal motives to be bearish.

Once again, I have been saying for months.....this market wants to run. Any hint of good news and KABOOM.
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So he shorts the market but doesn’t think that inflation is rolling over? He’s putting money where his mouth is. Why else would he short the market?
 
R

RUDead

All-Conference
Sep 20, 2017
3,655
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RU-05 said:
I don’t foresee a hard sell off in the upcoming weeks.

I could see it stay within the 3500-4100 range though. Up to the 200 day and then sell off a bit there.
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It was a monster rally today so its going to take a big sell off for my prediction to be right.
 
R

rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
16,774
0
RU-05 said:
Icahn on the overtime this afternoon. Still bearish, thinks inflation is not rolling over as Siegel thinks.

This is not to suggest one is right while the other wrong, but Siegel gives an impassioned coherent argument while Icahn is a painful old man ramble.
Click to expand...
I’m not going to speak to Icahn’s mental acuity at his advanced age but he’s never been the most articulate as long as I’ve seen him interviewed. Frankly, I’d say the same about Buffett. Doesn’t mean they aren’t very smart people.
 
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M

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
51,272
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rutgersguy1 said:
I’m not going to speak to Icahn’s mental acuity at his advanced age but he’s never been the most articulate as long as I’ve seen him interviewed. Frankly, I’d say the same about Buffett. Doesn’t mean they aren’t very smart people.
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I like to speak to my mental acuity. But I often forget what I was gonna say halfway through the sentence.

I'd like to believe that means I'm a smart person, too. 🤔
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,250
19,256
113
Another warning for the bears. If you used real-time housing data with this CPI print, MoM Core Inflation would be NEGATIVE. That's reality and where the lagged CPI is heading. It's just a matter of time. Plan accordingly.

"Inflation is basically over"

 
G

Goo_rivals317293

Junior
Jul 31, 2001
835
200
43
Big Picture

Inflation is not transitory

Inflation settling in at 4%-5% is the best you can expect

Fed does not have much room to raise rates

Net interest cost to the US will be too high

Now, this (bear market) rally is real and can go on for weeks.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,250
19,256
113
Goo said:
Big Picture

Inflation is not transitory

Inflation settling in at 4%-5% is the best you can expect

Fed does not have much room to raise rates

Net interest cost to the US will be too high

Now, this (bear market) rally is real and can go on for weeks.
Click to expand...
Bad post. Inflation has been flat to negative for the past few months. Look for MoM CPI to turn negative soon. We are heading to below CPI YoY under 2%.
 
G

Goo_rivals317293

Junior
Jul 31, 2001
835
200
43
I hope (wish) your outlook is correct. Other than gasoline, I have not noticed any prices going down, groceries, restaurants, utilities, all kind of tech subscriptions, sporting and concert tickets, plane tickets, hotels, kids sports, my quote to replace my Central Air, etc. On the other hand the price of a handle of Tito’s Vodka has in fact remained pretty stable throughout, so you may have a point.
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,665
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113
Goo said:
I hope (wish) your outlook is correct. Other than gasoline, I have not noticed any prices going down, groceries, restaurants, utilities, all kind of tech subscriptions, sporting and concert tickets, plane tickets, hotels, kids sports, my quote to replace my Central Air, etc. On the other hand the price of a handle of Tito’s Vodka has in fact remained pretty stable throughout, so you may have a point.
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Get an estimate for any house project and it’s clear that inflation still sucks.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,250
19,256
113
RUAldo said:
Get an estimate for any house project and it’s clear that inflation still sucks.
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The data proves you wrong. FYI, remember the difference between inflation and deflation. Saying inflation is flat/zero doesn't mean prices went back to 2020 levels. That's never gonna happen, especially with so much recent wage growth.
 
J

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,103
12,266
82
As long as the job market is strong, inflation will remain high. Read an article saying DB is giving all their employees an inflation bonus. That’s gasoline on a fire.
 
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