Yes, bad for the US, but devastating for Europe.
It was just a matter of time before this credit bubble popped. Hopefully the US can come out of this without too much damage. The quicker it happens the better for everyone.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Yes, bad for the US, but devastating for Europe.
It was just a matter of time before this credit bubble popped. Hopefully the US can come out of this without too much damage. The quicker it happens the better for everyone.
Careful. I would not fight the FED (or ECB). If the expectations is that rates are going to 5% they will stay there for a while (maybe too long). This creates a bigger problem than inflation.
1) Many companies rely on debt.
2) Earnings will take a hit
1&2 will have an adverse effect on Foward looking PE.
The Fed is full of crap and doesn't know what it will do in 3 months from now let alone 12 months. Remember, if we took the Fed's word last fall, they forecasted ONLY one 0.25% rate increase in all of 2022. This was literally a month or two prior to the big Powell pivot. LOL!
If you wait for the formal Fed pivot, the market is going to be way ahead of you. As for earnings, bears have been warning of an earnings crash for the past 3 Qs. Still waiting.
^^^^^ Bingo. The market will call the pivot several months before the Fed admits to it.
Don't care. Actually, that would be fine with me since I can add on the cheap. He's not going to be at Twitter long term. Twitter will eventually become just like Boring Co. and Neuralink. He's an engnineer at heart. Product design and manufacturing are his passions, not dealing with advertisers.
We clearly have different investment strategies, which is fine. I'm boring, which is why I don't comment much in this thread. Buy, hold, repeat.
I agree with you that the Fed is full of crap. However, if the fed wants a spike in unemployment, they will get it. Hence, don't fight the Fed.
You are correct that the market will turn before the Pivot. But, you're wrong in assuming that I would wait for a signal from the Fed to change my tune.
I think you’ll get your chance to buy on the next round he sells. Twitter is just burning through cash. You have to give Musk credit. The timing of his sales have been great.
ETA you might not have to wait too long
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Common sense from the Professor:
And then he went outside, looked up, raised a fist, and scolded a very large cloud.... The 'ol professor. LOL.
His track record still beats most people/pundits.....but nice try. Age discrimination is not cool.
More evidence that shelter inflation is over:
This is a poll between TSLA longs vs shorts.
LOL. Funny stuff. Got to imagine EM's days as Twitter's only leader is quickly coming to an end. Just hire someone.
Lex Fridman (podcaster and CS expert who has had Musk on his show) offers to run Twitter after Musk says nobody wants the job and Twitter struggling. He also said "As the saying goes, be careful what you wish, as you might get it" and "Why do so few report about millions of people crossing the border?"
I’m certain @BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap voted more than once.
The good ole Saudi's again. I wonder how much control they took in return. Maybe they can start building more than 3-4 cars a week. LOL!
Better investment than LIV. I guess it worked for Tesla, why not Lucid. Rivian, come on down.
That Eric Feigl-Ding guy is mega doomposting again about covid claiming the BF.7 omicron subvariant has an R0 of ~18 (yes, 18) even with the bivalent booster.
Claims the main effect will be economic as 60% of China is going to get it all at once.
Personally I think the guy is a drama queen in how he conducts himself in the public eye but he did call the pandemic back in Jan 2020 so who knows if he’s onto something. If he is it’s going to give the fed agita if “transitory” supply chain driven inflation returns with a vengeance.
Claims the main effect will be economic as 60% of China is going to get it all at once.
Personally I think the guy is a drama queen in how he conducts himself in the public eye but he did call the pandemic back in Jan 2020 so who knows if he’s onto something. If he is it’s going to give the fed agita if “transitory” supply chain driven inflation returns with a vengeance.
No idea who that is. There is literally a warning about the "next variant" every week. However, it is true that China has done a horrible job managing COVID. Their pop has minimal natural or vaccine protection, so eventually the **** will hit the fan over there.
Personally I think Feigel Ding-Dong is an "asset" (and he was born in China).
I used to read him on twitter early in the pandemic, but then I found out he wasn't a virologist (he poses as one but his background is in epidemiology of diet and exercise related disease).
At the time I was also banned from Twitter for posting about Dr Yon claiming virus was from a bio-weapon lab (which of course proved true).
It was curious how Ding became the biggest thing on Twitter practically overnight while legit experts were being purged (of course Musk has proven how that works).
His shrill attempts at generating panic were evident from the beginning
“HOLY MOTHER OF GOD — the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!!” he tweeted. “How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad — never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating.”
Feigl-Ding is not a virologist. People who actually are have criticized him for tweeting an inaccurate R0."
Ha, nice pivot by Musk. Fridman says he'll do the job for free, Musk responds you'll also have to invest your life savings. Sorry Elon, no one else is going to spend billions of dollars to take that job.
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Not sure. I will have to research that. Definitely good to buy J&J before their OTC spinoff.
That Eric Feigl-Ding guy is an absolute moron. Actual scientists (not the Desantis type) have called him out on his bs.
Time to buy TSLA? 
Musk says he'll step down as Twitter CEO after finding a replacement
Musk says he'll step down as Twitter CEO after finding a replacement
what the heck does 'desantis' type mean? You mean as opposed to Fauci whose been proven a charleton?
This does look like it could be a support level dating back to the fall of 2020.Time to buy TSLA?
Musk says he'll step down as Twitter CEO after finding a replacement
Next earnings date is Jan 23rd. Expected EPS of $1.23 which would put 2022 EPS at $4.00, which would put the P/E, at the current price of $140, at around 35x. EPS growth 2021 into 2022 was around 80%, expected growth into 2023 is about 37%. Which would put the fwd looking PEG at around 1.
Now will it hit those earning expectations? That is always the question in this game.
I did sell some $115 Jan 20 puts for a 3% premium.
+1
PEG with TSLA looking very cheap. Even with all the China issues, there deliveries are still holding strong.
Any thoughts on the sectors for 2023? Lots of folks seem bullish on industrials (obviously, if we avoid a legit recession). Perhaps a 2x sector trade?
I have been reading up on the Fidelity reports:
Nice performance by 2 bellwethers of the economy. Seriously, I don't understand this recession fear. Slowdown? Probably. Recession by definition? Maybe. Legit recession? Just don't see it.
Don’t worry. The Fed will make sure you see it before they stop raising rates.