I agree on the 2022 recession. Two negative GDP quarters = recession. Do we get another recession this year? The bond curve would indicate so.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Pharma and biotech are doing okay. I moved from big pharma to small biotech in 2021. Our challenge (biotech industry) was getting through the dead period of financing, first 3 quarters of 2022. Everything turned the corner late in 2022 and the industry is picking up. I'm on the rare disease side.
Biotech was the first sub-sector to get crushed in late 2021 (since we are the most risky area of small caps) and will lead the rebound rally on the way back up.
Everyone should beef up on their biotech plays.
I'm not doubting you, especially since you are in the industry, but why hasn't healthcare participated in the YTD rally like the other sectors? Is biotech getting overshadowed by the slower growth of big pharma?
The entire healthcare sector is kind of weird. Look at VHT (one of the low cost HC index ETFs). The majority of HC is big pharma, payers/insurance, and med tech. These are bellwether defensive stocks, which performed extremely well in 2022. The bottom third of the sector is biotech (IBB) and even further down spec/pre-revenue biotech (XBI). Most of biotech is growth and even aggressive growth, but can easily be overshadowed by the old big boys which are taking a breather now.
I believe biotech will rip hard whenever the tide truly turns (which may be now or not). My biggest HC play is PRHSX, which is one of the best Health Sciences funds with a biotech lean. I have been in PRHSX since 2005.
I am also working on several positions for LABU (the 3x version of XBI). LABU has 5-10x potential, so you don't have to risk much for a big return.
I will take a look at these, thanks! I've been building a position in XLV but it just keeps going sideways.
As usual, Powell said, he will be data-driven. - you can read it as hawkish or dovish.
As usual, Powell said the market can and will do what the market does - if they want to take it as good news, they can - and if they don't, that's their choice...
his focus remains mostly inflation
Why anyone thinks that means 2 rate cuts by YE23 is beyond me....
today:
US Unemployment Claims Drop for Fourth Time in Five Weeks
the last mile of inflation is going to be HARD
Financial conditions remain loose... It's been a great month - for profits. But, nominal growth is too high vs. real growth...
100% of S&P revenue growth was inflation - not fundamentals... be ready to react fast folks!
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I don’t think there is an economist or research institution that doesn’t think Russia didn’t play a role in inflation.
Also, the US gov alone does not cause global inflation.
- Some here respond to your obsession with the topic of inflation which has led you to believe that the be-all end-all of the contrarian view is inflation.
- Your definition of a recession is meaningless.
I just buy every week. Like the vast majority of Americans do. Either our weekly 401 contribution or whatever formula of dollar cost averaging we do.
have a plan and stick to it.
therein lies your problem as most of those are a quasi function of gov't and group think. There are several sources, think tanks, and data sources that validate what I said.
yes this is on gov't and the ridiculous lockdowns. There was no need for them or the economic disruption. Also, the reliance on manufacturing from China is also squarely at the feet of the gov't and more realistically, the Democrats thank you Bill and Oblunder.
step out of your cubicle and comfort zone and think, ask, research, look objectively. you'd be amazed at what you see
I know this comes across dikish but it's not intended to be read like that.
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Weren't the lockdowns during the time of a republican president (one of the most far right ones) and republican controlled senate? Why only blame the democrats?
Yes, it is always after the fact.
A little overdue don't ya think?
Maybe they haven't upgraded those old Casio calculators?
But the opposing party wanted lockdowns earlier and more stringent. Surely you understand that. The former president was absolutely not "one of the most far right ones". Same with spending. Trump spent like a drunken sailor but less than the democrats were insisting he spend. Hard to argue that you are right in that situation. Correct?
Double down and tell yourself it’s a good plan.
Dude, you are one giant walking think tank. I’ll take my chances trusting the research departments of major wire houses over you.
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I can tell by your commentary here where you're at
don't waste your time on that guy, he's the ticket runner
I'm astounded, given Rutgers a top econ school, at the lack of basic understanding of economics by many in this thread. When one remembers that less than 47% of educated Americans could balance a checkbook in 1992, I guess I shouldn't be surprised. People just lack critical thinking any longer
When I was teaching in the Rutgers Grad programs (finance and econ), I could see the decline in critical thinking and common sense but even I'm shocked at how bad it is today
I would not count oil down by any stretch and always think you should own it. Was my best player during the nonsensical hysteria of the pandemic. You are going to want income produces as they will win regardless of what direction we take from here or rather, without the extremes from here
It should benefit from seasonality too. Demand will pick up over the next few months. Plus, you can earn a few percent in dividends. I believe this is a good entry point.
When you control 2/3 of the government in addition to the Supreme Court, you are in charge. Regardless of what the democrats would have wanted, they didn’t have enough control to jam anything through congress or most state governments. Furthermore under Trump’s first 2 years, Republicans had control of all branches of government including most state governments. They could have easily coupled tax cuts with spending cuts, but they didn’t. Not fair to blame the democrats for all government spending and lockdowns. The republicans were just as responsible for lockdowns (which were absolutely necessary).
I haven't looked to verify, but I think the big runners right now are the most beaten down stocks of 2022. While healthcare, like energy, and defense stocks, which did very well in 2022, are lagging in 2023.
So selling high on the 2022 winners and buying low on the losers is my take.
You'd have to be deaf and blind to not realize Russia played a huge role in the inflation of 2022.
An interesting twist on the debate though is that the inflation caused by the Russian invasion appears to have been transitory.
XLV and VHT are pretty similar, but over the long-run PRHSX is the clear winner:
10y returns
XLV
+89.83 |+207.70%
VHT
+168.96 |+217.28%
PRHSX
+257.12 |+301.76%
Since PRHSX is a mutual fund, it's best to hold it in a tax-deferred account to avoid paying taxes on annual cap gain distributions. IBB, XBI, and LABU are focused on biotech.
I actually owned PRHSX in my taxable account having bought it five years ago. I didn’t want to have mutual funds in my taxable account and sold in December. I was able to offset gains with other losses.
It’s hard to time it exactly, but agree with you that bio-tech will turn once the higher interest rates are less of a concern. I will be watching XBI. Plus, I can use weekly options to squeeze out some additional dollars from it as well
Lots of good things going on! Plan accordingly.
Signs of market strength cheer U.S. stocks bulls
Signs of market strength cheer U.S. stocks bulls
Nothing here that hasn’t already been discussed in this thread, but still some interesting numbers on the collective buying power of retail.
Feel that story might be a few months late.
The recent run, especially crypto and high beta equities, suggests retail jumped back in.
Lots of unused cash floating around. It will definitely make its way back into the market.....and likely started to do so already.