OT: Stock and Investment Thread

Jul 31, 2001
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I would like to see a bigger dip with BTC and ETH, but with months of awful news and numerous bankruptcies, both have held up remarkably well.
Wish granted….stay tuned.

For the rest of you, what do you think is more likely BTC to 15k or BTC to 25k ?
Currently ~20k
 

rurahrah000

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2010
3,247
2,200
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Wait for a rebound then sell them off again?
It maybe a while until we get a rebound in TSLA like we did from $100 to $200. Theta decay will eventually become a bigger factor. Of course this far away from the strike price works in my favor as well. I am not going to get too greedy. If i make 90+%, I will be more than happy.
 
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rurahrah000

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Aug 21, 2010
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Are you happy with that trade? It was covered calls which means you are still down 15% net of the call prem.
That is true that the TSLA is itself down, but I am in it for the long run and not looking to cash out anytime soon. These swings don't bother me. I always find ways to trade around a long term thesis.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,651
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Was down a full 60% at the close, down to $106, and then another 20 something percent after hours..... I bought a little at $85.
$58 at 6:50 AM.

Want to see what it does during market hours but this trade looks as dumb as y’all thought it was.
 

RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
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$58 at 6:50 AM.

Want to see what it does during market hours but this trade looks as dumb as y’all thought it was.
No different than going to AC.

Crazy to think it was almost $700 p/sh about a year ago. I have to assume the lawsuits will pile up soon. Management, the analysts, talking heads like Jimmy Booyah, all pump these fake POS banks and leave everyone else holding the bag. The SEC is run worse than the Post Office.
 

RUinPinehurst

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Aug 27, 2011
8,389
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No different than going to AC.

Crazy to think it was almost $700 p/sh about a year ago. I have to assume the lawsuits will pile up soon. Management, the analysts, talking heads like Jimmy Booyah, all pump these fake POS banks and leave everyone else holding the bag. The SEC is run worse than the Post Office.
Taking financial advice from a cartoon is problematic.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,210
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Wish granted….stay tuned.

For the rest of you, what do you think is more likely BTC to 15k or BTC to 25k ?
Currently ~20k
Time period?
Likely BTC and ETH to retest recent lows, so BTC 16'ish and ETH slightly under 1k. We are still in a crypto bear/winter until we approach the next halfing.
 

Morrischiano2

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Dec 3, 2019
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No different than going to AC.

Crazy to think it was almost $700 p/sh about a year ago. I have to assume the lawsuits will pile up soon. Management, the analysts, talking heads like Jimmy Booyah, all pump these fake POS banks and leave everyone else holding the bag. The SEC is run worse than the Post Office.
Banks get stressed tested every year. Unfortunately, no regional bank can survive a bank run.

The current thinking that this won’t cause a contagion will probably be true. What it will cause is a big discussion of how this current rate environment can affect bank collateral.
 
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Morrischiano2

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Dec 3, 2019
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Time period?
Likely BTC and ETH to retest recent lows, so BTC 16'ish and ETH slightly under 1k. We are still in a crypto bear/winter until we approach the next halfing.
If you are trading crypto then the trend is your friend. Because of all of the bad news around exchanges and banks/brokerages in the space, the trend is now down.
 

Morrischiano2

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Dec 3, 2019
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311k. Wage growth less than expected. That may be the more important number.

That huge number last month was only adjusted down by 34k.
 
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Morrischiano2

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Dec 3, 2019
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Goldilocks number for everyone. Bulls and bears to spin how they want. Lots of speculation but we need to see what the inflation data is next week.

Just based on this number and Powell’s comments alone , I’d say 50 bips.

Market futures are flat.

New market narrative to watch: big bank CEOs saying the rapid rate hikes are putting undue stress on regionals, so maybe the Fed should chill.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,096
12,254
82
That is true that the TSLA is itself down, but I am in it for the long run and not looking to cash out anytime soon. These swings don't bother me. I always find ways to trade around a long term thesis.
But you sold calls. You could’ve cashed out.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,096
12,254
82
Goldilocks number for everyone. Bulls and bears to spin how they want. Lots of speculation but we need to see what the inflation data is next week.

Just based on this number and Powell’s comments alone , I’d say 50 bips.

Market futures are flat.

New market narrative to watch: big bank CEOs saying the rapid rate hikes are putting undue stress on regionals, so maybe the Fed should chill.
Chill? This is what they want.
 

Joey Bags

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Sep 21, 2019
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Bond yields pulling way back, down 3% on 30 year. Could see a massive rally into close as the market looks past this boutique bank dog and pony show.
 
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Postman_1

Heisman
Mar 12, 2017
7,838
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This should not be considered tax or legal advice; but rather, general information/opinion. As others have suggested, consult a qualified CPA. Having said that my views are:
If a 401k or other qualified plan has both pretax and after tax contributions, the prorate rule comes open to play to track and calculate taxes on distributions.
Backdoor Roth doesn’t avoid taxes, it is a way to bypass restrictions on ability to do a Roth due to having too much income.
When you convert from tIRA to Roth you pay taxes on the distribution taken from the tIRA (using prorata if the distribution contains both pre-tax and after-tax dollars)
If you made a non-deductible contribution to a qualified plan (e.g, tIRA, Simple IRA, SEP) in the current year or any previous year you file Form 8606 to track non-deductible and calculate the prorata percent for tax purposes.

Again these are just opinions and my understanding. Please see below.

The guy in this video explains it pretty good. So I ended up getting my taxes done this week and sadly the accountant was not aware of this rule. That was disappointing. I ended up talking to a few financial advisors and they were not to familiar with it either. I am in the process of transferring my tIRA from Nationwide to Fidelity. I probably will convert some of that to my Roth and just pay the taxes. The most senior advisor I spoke with told me that would be wise because I already have a pre taxed retirement account through my union. In talking with all them people I still learned the most from people on this thread and by doing my own research. Now to figure out what to invest in for my IRA's.




 

Morrischiano2

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Dec 3, 2019
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Markets taking the predictable dump. I would not expect a big rally into the close after we broke support yesterday; especially with a lot of uncertainty heading into the weekend.

3800 is kind of a technical support level.
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
Markets taking the predictable dump. I would not expect a big rally into the close after we broke support yesterday; especially with a lot of uncertainty heading into the weekend.

3800 is kind of a technical support level.
Strange how it took so long for market to turn negative this morning with a .5 possible increase.
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,658
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The guy in this video explains it pretty good. So I ended up getting my taxes done this week and sadly the accountant was not aware of this rule. That was disappointing. I ended up talking to a few financial advisors and they were not to familiar with it either. I am in the process of transferring my tIRA from Nationwide to Fidelity. I probably will convert some of that to my Roth and just pay the taxes. The most senior advisor I spoke with told me that would be wise because I already have a pre taxed retirement account through my union. In talking with all them people I still learned the most from people on this thread and by doing my own research. Now to figure out what to invest in for my IRA's.





Just did all my back door rollovers yesterday through Fidelity. Took after-tax over contributions from 401k and rolled them into Roth IRA (making sure gains were separate and rolled back into 401k). Then put $6500 into traditional IRA which then rolled into Roth.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,210
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311k. Wage growth less than expected. That may be the more important number.

That huge number last month was only adjusted down by 34k.
Better jobs report, soft wages, serious stress on the banking system. No way the Fed is doing 50. That could cause more banking problems which would truly be an impeachable offense for the Fed members.

Question is, does the Fed pause in 2 weeks and let the dust settle? Push too hard and the Fed will have to cut and start QE to bail out banks (regardless of inflation).
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,210
19,222
113
Strange how it took so long for market to turn negative this morning with a .5 possible increase.
No 0.5 increase with so much stress on the banking/financial system. Even the Fed isn't that stupid, right? :)

Today's dump isn't due to jobs or inflation (since bond yields are tanking). It's due to financial system issues. Raising interest rates now would make this even worse.
 

Postman_1

Heisman
Mar 12, 2017
7,838
12,665
113
What happened to $SCHW? Rumors said Schwab is the next one?

Buying opportunity? Analysts Richard Repetto and Patrick Moley at investment bank Piper Sandler were quick to note the differences between Schwab and SVB, writing in a March 10 research report that “yesterday’s sell off is overdone and could present an attractive entry point into one of the strongest brands in financial services.”


 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,210
19,222
113
Buying opportunity? Analysts Richard Repetto and Patrick Moley at investment bank Piper Sandler were quick to note the differences between Schwab and SVB, writing in a March 10 research report that “yesterday’s sell off is overdone and could present an attractive entry point into one of the strongest brands in financial services.”


+1
Haven't read anything bad about Schwab, certainly not like SVB.
 
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RUDead

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Sep 20, 2017
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Buying opportunity? Analysts Richard Repetto and Patrick Moley at investment bank Piper Sandler were quick to note the differences between Schwab and SVB, writing in a March 10 research report that “yesterday’s sell off is overdone and could present an attractive entry point into one of the strongest brands in financial services.”



If Schwab has a significant issue, that would be really, really bad for the banks. I always thought they were pretty conservative. Maybe they changed in the last few years.
 

Morrischiano2

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Dec 3, 2019
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No 0.5 increase with so much stress on the banking/financial system. Even the Fed isn't that stupid, right? :)

Today's dump isn't due to jobs or inflation (since bond yields are tanking). It's due to financial system issues. Raising interest rates now would make this even worse.
Banking system issues caused by idiosyncratic issue with a couple of over concentrated portfolios in banks. But there is pressure on deposits.

Yields are tanking because risk free treasuries look much better than high yield saving accounts at regional banks.
 
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Morrischiano2

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Dec 3, 2019
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Buying opportunity? Analysts Richard Repetto and Patrick Moley at investment bank Piper Sandler were quick to note the differences between Schwab and SVB, writing in a March 10 research report that “yesterday’s sell off is overdone and could present an attractive entry point into one of the strongest brands in financial services.”


Yes this is when you look for babies in the bath water. Single stocks, not bank ETFs
 

Morrischiano2

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Dec 3, 2019
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The startup environment is going to be really tough this year.

SIVB was the payroll bank for hundreds of startups. A lot of startups won’t be paying their workers this month.
 
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Joey Bags

All-American
Sep 21, 2019
5,175
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Forbes is reporting the new federal 2024 budget includes taxes on unrealized capital gains. Is this true? If so, holy ****. Would basically spell the end of start ups among a host of other horrible consequences.
 
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